2052 – a global forecast for the next forty...
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NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 1J Randers 1
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
2052 –A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Years
2052 –A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty YearsJorgen Randers
ProfessorCenter for Climate Strategy
Norwegian Business School BI
European Investment BankLuxembourg, November 20, 2013
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12 scenarios for the 21st century
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1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
1
1
1 1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
34
4
4
4
5
5
55
Year
5: Nonrenewable resources
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
2: Foodoutput
1: Population
Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
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Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability
Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
33
44
4
4
5
5
5
5
5: Nonrenewable resources
1: Population
2: Foodoutput
3: Industrial output
4: Pollution level
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For all numerical dataand the forecast model,
consultthe book websitewww.2052.info
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The five regions used in the 2052 forecast
Region Population2010
(billionpeople)
GDP2010
(trillion$ pr year)
GDP per person2010
(1000$ pr person-year)
US 0,3 13 41China 1,3 10 7OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 10
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world
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Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050
World population will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Birth rate(scale →)
Death rate
Population(←scale)
% / yrGpersons
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1
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World GDP growth will slow down
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012
0
30
60
90
120
150
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP(scale →)
G$ / yr% / yr
Long term trend inproductivity growth(←scale)
g130605j
6.0
Gp
8.0
10.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Population aged 15 to 65(scale → →)
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity
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0
30
60
90
120
150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World GDP
Non-discretionaryinvestment
(“unavoidable repair”)
G$ / yr
Consumption
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
Traditionalinvestment
(24% of GDP)
Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Global consumption will peak in 2045
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Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
Energy use will peak in 2040
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0
60
120
180
240
300
0
4
8
12
16
20
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Worldenergy use(←scale)
toe / M$Gtoe / yr
Energy intensity= Energy useper unit of GDP(scale →)
180
G$/ yr
World GDP(scale →→)
240
300
120
60
0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
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Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030
0.0
1.3
2.6
3.9
5.2
6.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil use
Gtoe / yr
Nuclear use
Gas use
Coal use
Renewable energy use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
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Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 emissions(←scale)
tCO2 / toeGtCO2 / yr
Climate intensity= CO2 per unitof energy(scale →) 15
Gtoe/yr
Energy use(scale →→)
20
25
10
5
0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
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Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 in atmosphere(←scale)
deg Cppm
Temperature rise(scale →)
0.9
m
Sea level rise(scale →→)
1.2
1.5
0.6
0.3
0g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
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1. Growth in population and GDP will slow “by itself” – because of human decision making, not because of planetary constraints
2. But growth will not slow fast enough to avoid a climate crisis
3. There will be enough resources – including energy, water and food – to cover demand (which is not the same as need)
4. There will be more poverty – both in the rich and the poor world
Discussion of the 2052 forecast
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
There will be huge regional differences
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
World
BRISE
China
OECDless US
USA
ROW
After-tax income per person(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
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Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast♣ World population and economy
will grow more slowly towards 2052 than most people expect
- but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis
♣ Consumption will stagnatebecause world society will have to spend
ever more on repair and adaptation
♣ The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus
of democracy and capitalism -is the root cause of this development
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What does this mean for the EIB?
1. Slow GDP growth in Europe for decades –also in the rest of the industrialised world
2. Continuing increase in the amount of repair and adaptation work –leading to reduced consumption growth
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Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Slowing growth in total productivity - USA
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rate of growth in GDP per
person 15 to 65 years of age
% / yr
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3c
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman
Total fertility
Long term trend
POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_120522.xls
Fertility decline in EU-15 – 1950 to 2010
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
Figure A4-1 Total Fertility – EU15 1950 to 2010Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age
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Figure 8-1_o: Past and future OECD-less-US – State of Affairs – 1970 to 2050
OECD outside the US – 1970 to 2050
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population
Consumption
CO2emissionsGDP
Temperaturerise
State of Affairs
Max values 0.8 Gp, 30 G$/yr, 7 GtCO2/yr, 30 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 13
Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
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What should the EIB do?
1. The EIB should work to increase human well-being in a world with constant GDP and declining population
2. The EIB should help establish “repair and adaptation packages” financed with newly printed money