2.1. andrew curry
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Learning from the UK’s Intelligent Infrastructure ScenariosAndrew Curry, The Futures Company
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Foresight’s Intelligent Infrastructure Futures
• Foresight: takes a long-term view of long-term issues where science and technology can be influential
• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems project was sponsored by the Department of Transport, which still uses the scenarios as part of its long-term thinking
• The project combined drivers analysis, scenarios development, systems work, and socio-technical studies, as well as ‘state of science’ reviews from leading academics - social scientists as well as technologists
• The output is in the public domain and can be freely downloaded: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/OurWork/CompletedProjects/IIS/KeyInfo/Index.asp
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Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
High Impact Transport
Low impact Transport
Good Intentions
Urban Colonies
Perpetual Motion
Tribal Trading
Summarising the scenarios
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Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
High Impact Transport
Low impact Transport
Perpetual Motion
Technology applied
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Designing out demandAccepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
High Impact Transport
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Urban Colonies
‘At a gross density of 50 dph, 5,000 dwellings can be within a 10 minute walk of public services, schools and viable public transport.’MJP Architects, ‘Sustainable Suburbia’
Low impact Transport
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The impact of resource limits
Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
High Impact Transport
Low impact Transport
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Tribal Trading
Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
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Reduction through rationing Accepting of Intelligent
Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
High Impact Transport
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Economic Insecurity
Good Intentions
Low impact Transport
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Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
Resistant to IntelligentInfrastructure
High Impact Transport
Low impact Transport
Economic Insecurity
Good Intentions Perpetual Motion
Tribal Trading Urban Colonies
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Reflecting on the scenarios
• The only reliable way to reduce personal transport demand is to focus on access not mobility – this takes a generation– but it is happening
• Technology can help - but it needs to be applied to reducing demand for private personal transport– otherwise it reduces equity
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Reflecting on the scenarios
• So far reducing personal transport use has only happened generally as a result of fuel price increases– but this is a risky way to manage transport outcomes
• Decisive changes in transport behaviour are likely to come quickly only through rationing or pricing – but car users resent it
– so this is a tough political challenge
– there need to be clear benefits associated with the change
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“How do you want your kids to live? Do you want to walk or drive to get bread? That's the basis of thinking about cities.”
http://www.resurgence.org/magazine/article518-CITIES-OF-JOY.html
Enrique Penalosa
© 2010 The Futures Company
Andrew Curry
+44 (0) 20 7955 1839
Thank you
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Annex : scenario highlights
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Per
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Urb
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Trib
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Goo
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