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Cube Land in CaliforniaImplementation in Bakersfield

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Bakersfield?

The Bakersfield Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a population of 800,458 making it the 63rd largest metropolitan area in the USA.

The city's economy relies on agriculture, petroleum extraction and refining, and manufacturing.

Population growth of 40% since 2000.

Transportation and land use modeling are handled by the region’s MPO: Kern Council of Governments

The Results

• Citilabs successfully implemented Cube Land as an integrated part of Kern Council of Governments’ (Kern COG) modeling process.

• Work was completed in 3 months and provides a platform that can provide the economic detail required to support SB375 planning.

• Other MPOs (7) throughout the San Joaquin Valley have now purchased Cube Land and are working to bring land use in to their models as well.

History

• Kern COG previously used UPlan, a rule-based land use allocation model implemented in ArcGIS.

• SB 375’s Sustainable Communities Strategies demand a different approach

• Better integration between land use and transportation models.

• Clearer understanding of how the costs/benefits of different strategies are distributed among users.

What is SB 375?• Senate Bill 375

• The core provision is a requirement for regional transportation agencies to develop a “Sustainable Communities Strategy” in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from driving.

• The Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) is one component of the existing Regional Transportation Plan (RTP).

• The SCS will outline the region’s plan for combining transportation resources, such as roads and mass transit, with a realistic land use pattern, in order to meet a state target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

• The strategy must take into account the region’s housing needs, transportation demands, and protection of resource and farm lands.

Actions• Despite a number of enhancements, KernCOG’s UPlan

model:• Couldn’t supply the economic detail necessary.• Wasn’t sensitive to traffic congestion or travel choices therefore

couldn’t be run with full feedback.

• Bought Cube Land and worked with Citilabs to implement a solution over 3 months.

Land Use Travel Demand

Households & Employment

Congestion & Accessibility

• Cube Land is economic land-use modeling software designed especially for interaction with transport planning models

• Finds an equilibrium between• “supply” (the built environment owned controlled by landlords and

developers) and• “demand” – (households and firms looking to live and set up work)

• Clear economic logic: “bid-rent”• Real estate properties are occupied by the household or firm

willing & able to pay most• Developers maximize profits when deciding what type of

buildings to provide• …Subject to bounds, constraints, restrictions, and policy

assumptions• Fixed development & institutional uses• Limits on growth and re-development• Taxes, subsidies, and zoning rules• Vacant uses; undeveloped land

What is Cube Land?

What is Supply in Cube Land?

• Housing Units (1 HH per)• Non-Residential Unit (1 firm per)

• Grouped by “real estate type”:• Clustered by size, e.g. lot and floor

area• Relationship to general plan

categories and land use types: permitted/prohibited uses

1. Residential High2. Residential Medium3. Residential Low4. Residential Very Low5. Mixed Use6. Basic Production7. Retail High8. Retail Medium9. Retail Service10. Service Other11. Service Warehouse

Land Use: Uplan Categories used as Supply in Cube Land for Bakersfield

• Used income / size categories in travel model as household types in Cube Land

Describing Demand for Cube Land: Households

Describing Demand for Cube Land: FirmsFrom: http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/cbpnaic/cbpsect.plData are also available for years from 1997-2007 & ZIP codes

• A bid function relates consumer willingness-to-pay for some real estate property to characteristics of:

• the property itself (lot size, floor space)• the neighborhood (accessibility,

schools, shops)• the consumer (income, lifestyle,

industry)• Bid rent theory – Alonso (1964)• Different types of uses will compete

for land in various locations • The bid function quantifies tradeoffs

between values

What is a bid function?

• UPlan intermediate attractiveness outputs are utilized.• Friction factors have been used to calculate accessibility

measures by zone and income level.

Attractiveness and Accessibility

Solution Algorithm• Fixed-point problem;

system of dependent nonlinear equations

• Highly efficient solution approach

• Equilibrium exists for a real range of scale parameters

• Uniqueness confirmed via numerical search

Reading and Validation of Input Files

Definition of Parameters

Initialization of Variables (Iteration 0)Initial bids with endogenous and exogenous variables

Assessment of the supply and demand MNL

Global iterations (Iteration n)

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• Number of real estate properties (e.g.housing units) by type in each zone

• Market rents by type and zone (simulated real estate prices / values)

• Built area by type of use in each zone

• Households and jobs by zonal location and real estate property type

• Bids of each consumer type on each real estate property type and zone

• Average household income by zone

Output data sets

• As part of the project, a semi-automated estimation and calibration application was created for KernCOG.

• Improvements can be easily implemented in the future.• Validated regional parcel layer• Home interview survey• Detailed business location information

Automated Estimation for Calibration