1

FISH TO 2050 PROJECTION

WorldFish/IFPRI

2

Global AQ production

Macroeconomic Trends

Bias Corrected Climate Models

(ISI-MIP)

Hydrology Model (GHM)

IMPACT Food and Livestock

Model

Water Basin Management

Model (WBMM)

Water Allocation and Stress

Model (WASM)

IMPACT Food and Livestock

Model

Crop Models (DSSAT)

Water Demand Trends

IMPACT Model System

Fish into IMPACT

Capture Fisheries Agriculture

Demand for Milk, Meat &Fish

Aquaculture Livestock

Protein MealFishmeal

Processing Waste

Fish Model Structure:Commodity Aggregations: Supply and Demand

Production Aggregation Consumption AggregationShrimp and Prawns Shrimp and PrawnsOther Crustaceans Other Crustaceans

Mollusks and other Aquatic Invertebrates and Animals Mollusks and other Aquatic Invertebrates and AnimalsSalmon, Trout and other Salmonoids Salmon, Trout and other Salmonoids

Tuna TunaTilapia and other Cichlids Freshwater and other Diadromous Fish

Pangasius and other CatfishMajor Carp and Milkfish

Eels and SturgeonSilver, Bighead and Grass Carp

Other Freshwater and Diadromous FishMullet Demersal Fish

Demersal FishOther Marine Fish Other Marine Fish

Cobia and Swordfish Other Pelagic FishOther Pelagic Fish

Production(Aquaculture , Capture)

Demand(Food, Feed, Crush, Other)

+ Net Imports =

Waste from Fish ProcessingCrush Ratios

Feed

Con

vers

ion

Ratio

sFish

Fish

Mea

l & O

il

ΣGlobal Net Imports = 0Global-Level Trade Balance

Country-Level Supply and Demand Balance

Demand Production(Whole Fish, Waste)

+ Net Exports =

ΣGlobal Net Exports = 0Global-Level Trade Balance

Country-Level Supply and Demand Balance

And if I haven’t lost you by now…

Page 7

… remember that this same balancing needs to be done for each of the 16 fish species in each of the 159 regions

(up from 115 previously)

Dataset I. Dataset II.

Dataset III.

Dataset Followed Strictly Dataset Followed As Closely As Possible

Dataset Followed As Closely As Possible

Expert Estimate

Calculated by Authors

From Literature

Based on Peru

Unknown

9

Schematic plan of Fish to 2050 report

Pathway Options

Inputs/Outputs Defined for

Scenarios &Pathways

Implications for investment & aquaculture development

and environment management

FISH INTO IMPACT MODEL

Aquaculture System Characterization and analysis with LCA

Scenario Development

Scenarios

Fish Projections

Fish supply & Demand to 2050

Systems characterizedLCA results

10

The four LCA phases as outlined by ISO

Habitat Production System

0M 1M 2M

Eutrophication

0K 500K 1000K

Acidification

0M 50M 100M

Climate Change

10M 20M 30M

Land Occupation

0M 2000M

Energy Demand

2M 4M 6M

Biotic Depletion

Coastal Bottom Culture

Cages & Pens

Off-Bottom Culture

Ponds

Inland Cages & Pens

Off-Bottom Culture

Ponds

Absolute Values

Habitat Production System

0 50 100

Eutrophication

0 50 100 150

Acidification

0K 5K 10K 15K

Climate Change

0.0 0.5 1.0

Land Occupation

0K 100K 200K

Energy Demand

0 2000

Biotic Depletion

Coastal Bottom Culture

Cages & Pens

Off-Bottom Culture

Ponds

Inland Cages & Pens

Off-Bottom Culture

Ponds

Relative Values (per tonne production)

Example of LCA results…