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Strategies for the Future Development ofEnergy Systems Klaus Illum, Denmark

1. Exponential growth ad absurdum

2. The mind-set of the Cheap-oil Era:

”Energy” as commodity

3. The construction of new energy systems

4. Case study: Denmark

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+ 10 days 10 years

Water hyacinths. Growth rate: One becomes three in five days

20% 60% 100%

1950 2004 2030 54 years 25 years

Ecological carrying capacity exploited at a growth rate of 2% per year

The nature ofexponentialgrowth

The same goes for oil depletion

Plenty of oilLittle time

40 %in 54 years

40 %in 25 years

10 years 10 days

2% p.a.

Water hyacinths

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IEA Reference Scenario. World Energy Outlook 2004

Climbing the peak:• investing trillions of dollars in oil-consuming machinery – more cars, trucks, airplanes, etc.

• investing other trillions producing the increasing amounts of oil needed to feed this machinery.

The higher the ascent, the more lamentable the day when the peak is reached and the descent begins.

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The unprecedented economic growth in the affluent countries and the concurrent unprecedented population growth in the third world since World War II is a singular, oil-based event in the history of mankind.

There is no substitute for oil with unique properties similar to those of oil.

Thus, it is a theoretical assumption not substantiated by any empirical evidence that economic growth of the present sort can continue worldwide.

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Man is a prisoner of his own way of thinking and his own stereotypes of himself.

Stafford Beer in Platform for Change, 1975

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The Mind-set of the Cheap-oil Era”Energy” as a political and economic

concept: a class of commodities

US Atomic Energy Commission (1946)

Provoked by OPEC:The International Energy Agency (1974)The US Department of Energy (1977)The Danish Energy Agency (1976) and concurrently in the other OECD countries

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The Simplistic Energy BookkeepingCalorimetric energy values:

The potential power of one kilogram of oil is equalled to the heat from a solar collector raising the temperature of 1 cubic metre of water by 10 degrees C. and 11 kWh of electric power.

This is the key to energy bookkeeping and the concept of energy as a class of commodities.

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It’s true that1 litre of water + 1 litre of whiskey + 1 litre of milk

makes 3 litres.

Likewise:

It’s true that1 GJ of oil + 1 GJ of electric power from a

nuclear power station + 1 GJ of heat from a solar collector makes 3 GJ.

But it is irrelevant for any practical analysis.

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From The Economist April 30th 2005

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It is not about replacing fossil fuels by renewable energy sources or nuclear power.

It is about the construction of new energy systems more akin to natural energy systems than the primitive energy supply systems of the cheap-fossil-fuel era.

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”Energy” is about sustaining states of thermodynamic disequilibrium:

Thermal disequilibrium (temperature differences)

Electric disequlibrium (voltage)

Kinetic disequilibrium (motion)

…. which does not necessarily entail ”energy consumption” or a marketplace for ”energy”.

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The construction of new energy systems is a task for engineers, not economists.In every community there is a need for

Lighting, TV, computers, etc.Cooking, cool and cold storage of foodA healthy and comfortable indoor climateTransportation of people and goodsAgricultural productionIndustrial production facilities

The energy system is a construction which fulfils these needs.

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The three subsystems of an energy system

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In integrated energy systems everything is connected to everything else.There are no distinct sectors which constitute particular ”energy markets”.

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Thermodynamic efficiency of energy supply is about control andregulation in complex systems.

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Case study: DenmarkA detailed physical multi-scenario model (SESAM):Geographical: 4928 ”energy districts” 200,000 building-groups

70 Cities, towns, rural areas.19 building categories. Electrical appliancesPower and cogeneration stations, etc.IndustriesTransport: Volume by vehicle. Technology.Windmills, solar absorbers, PV panels.

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Example:Assume modest increase in fossil fuel costs:Crude oil price gradually increasing from $30 to $80 in the next 25 years(assuming that the present price is a short-term irregularity)

Natural gas price increasing at the same rate

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Assume also unreasonablecontinued growth in energy consuming facilities:Electrical appliances (+38%)Heated area in buildings (+19%)Industrial production (+30%)Transportation volumes (+50%)

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Strategy A B CO2 emission - 20% - 64%Coal consumption - 74% - 95%Oil consumption +14% - 50%Gas consumption +37% - 20%

Investments (trillion Euro):Wind, PV, Solar 9.3 21Supply installations 72 87Buildings, additional 0 19

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Since the problems confronting us are not intrisically insoluble, it behooves us, while there is still time, to begin a serious examination of the nature of our cultural constraints and of the cultural adjustments necessary to permit us to deal effectively with the problems rapidly arising. M.King Hubbert, 1976

Our window of opportunity is slowly closing. M.King Hubbert, 1988