23 february,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice

Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue I

February 23, 2015


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Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Seen Slightly Lower as a

Retracement in Other Grains Weighs on

Prices

Feb 20, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 2.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per

ton) lower at $10.775 per cwt (about $238 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading lower this morning: soybeans are currently seen about 0.6% lower,

wheat is listed about 1.3% lower and corn is currently noted about 1.2% lower.U.S. stocks traded

lower on Friday ahead of an expected announcement on Greece debt talks with the euro zone.

The Eurogroup of regional finance ministers met on Friday to discuss Greece's loan extension

proposal.

Germany rejected the plan on Thursday and called it a "Trojan horse." A decision is expected

late Friday morning, Eastern Time. Greece faces the risk of default and exit from the euro zone if

the country does not obtain enough funding or an extension beyond the Feb 28 deadline. The

Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 100 points in the open before recovering to trade

about 64 points lower, or 0.38%, to 17,918. The S&P 500 traded down 8 points, or 0.38%, to

2,089, with energy leading declines across all sectors. The Nasdaq reversed to trade lower, down

9 points, or 0.17%, to 4,916. Gold is currently trading marginally lower, crude oil is seen trading

about 1% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.3% higher at 8:30am Chicago

time.

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

Feb 20, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers are out today due to national holiday. Other Asia rice sellers kept their

quotes unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice last shown at around $355 - $365 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around


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$390 - $400 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $345 -

$355 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice last shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around

$355 - $365, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $305 - $315 per

ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at

around $385 - $395 per ton, on par with Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $385 - $395 per

ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on

Vietnam 100% broken rice last shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown

at around $280 - $290 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at

around $275 - $285 per ton.

Global Rice Quotes

February 20th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 415-425 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 355-365 ↔

India 5% broken 390-400 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 345-355 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken NQ ↔

Argentina 5% broken NQ ↔

grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 365-375 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 305-315 ↔


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Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 355-365 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 470-480 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 405-415 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 920-930 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 460-470 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 785-795 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 365-375 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 380-390 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

India 2014-15 Basmati Rice Exports May

Decline by 10% Due to Iran Import Ban,

Says AIREA Official

Feb 20, 2015

India's basmati rice exports in the fiscal year 2014-15 (April - March) are likely to decline by

about 10% to around 3.2 million tons from around 3.57 million tons exported in FY 2013-14,

local sources quoted the Executive Director (ED) of the All India Rice Exporters Association

(AIREA).The expected decline is mainly due to the temporary ban imposed by Iran on rice

imports citing presence of excess stocks in the country.


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Iran is an important destination for India's basmati

rice exports and accounts for nearly 30% of India's

total basmati exports.In 2013-14, India exported about

1.4 million tons of basmati rice to Iran, about 39% of

total basmati rice exports. The AIREA ED noted that

so far in this fiscal year, India's basmati rice exports

are lagging by about 5-7% from the same period last

year.Iranian authorities have reportedly assured Indian

representatives, who visited Iran recently, to resume

basmati rice imports from March this year and that they would issue a notification in that

direction on March 21, 2015.

The AIREA ED noted that India's basmati rice exports may not recover this year despite Iran's

resumption of rice imports. However, higher demand for basmati rice from European nations

such as Denmark and Czech Republic have offset Iran ban effect, according to local sources.In

the beginning of this month, India's Commerce Ministry officials told local sources that they are

expecting Iran to import around 800,000 to one million tons of basmati rice in 2014-15.

According to data from the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development

Authority (APEDA), India exported only 608,107 tons of basmati rice to Iran in the first eight

months of FY 2014-15 (April-November 2014) and total India's basmati rice exports during the

period stand at around 2.19 million tons.

The impact of reduced shipments to Iran has also hit basmati rice prices severely. India's basmati

export prices declined by about 40% to below $900 per ton from around $1,400 per ton last year,

and are expected to decline further due to low export demand and increasing inventories.

Indonesian Trade Minister Rules Out

Immediate Rice Imports Despite Rising

Prices

Feb 20, 2015


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Indonesia may not import rice immediately despite rising domestic prices, as the existing stocks

and the output from upcoming harvest in March and April would be sufficient to control price

hikes, local sources quoted the country's Trade Minister as saying.The Minister told local sources

that the government is against rice imports ahead of the harvest time as it would make local rice

uncompetitive and affect the farmers' incomes.

According to the Director General of the Agriculture Ministry is expecting the harvest from the

ongoing crop season at around 13.2 million tons, basis paddy. Indonesia's 2015 paddy rice

production is expected to reach about 71.28 million tons, up about 0.95% from around 70.6

million tons produced in 2014.Domestic rice prices have been surging since September 2014.

Currently local rice prices stand at around 9.78 million Rupiah (around $761) per ton, up about

10% from around 8.93 million Rupiah (around $750) per ton in September 2014, and up about

9% from their year ago levels.Indonesia imported around 425,000 tons of rice from Vietnam and

Thailand in 2014.USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.5 million tons of rice, basis

milled (around 57.4 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.3 million tons of rice in MY

2014-15 (October - September).


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Indonesia Signs New Agreement with IRRI to

Boost Rice Production

Feb 20, 2015

The Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and

Development (IAARD) has collaborated with the

Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute

(IRRI) as part of its efforts to boost rice production and

achieve self-sufficiency over the next four years,

according to local sources.The IAARD and the IRRI have

formally signed a new working plan for the next four

years (2015 - 2019) in line with the government's targets

to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production, maintain adequate rice stocks to secure food

supply as well as end rice imports. The working plan was signed between February 16-18, 2015

in Jakarta. It is expected to encourage collaborative research between the IRRI and Indonesia's

rice research programs as well as enhance the country's national rice research capacity.

The IAARD Director General told local sources that the institute is stepping up efforts to

develop more climate resilient and higher yielding rice varieties. The new plan with the IRRI

will help Indonesia to receive the best of rice science to further improve rice yields, while

withstanding harsher climates as well as constantly-evolving diseases and pests. production, he

said.The IRRI launched an ICT-based application called Layanan Konsultasi Padi (LKP), which

provides location-specific fertilizer advice to farmers, following the work plan signing

formalities.

According to an independent assessment published in 2011, the IRRI released about 230 rice

varieties between 1985 to 2009 that are high-yielding, pest, drought, flood and salinity resistant.

The IRRI also disseminated requisite crop management practices to farmers through

management technologies. Indonesia produced around 70.61 million tons of paddy in 2014, and

the government is estimating 2015 paddy production at around 71.28 million tons in 2015.USDA

estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.5 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.4

million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.3 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (October -

September). Consumption during the year is estimated at around 39.2 million tons.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Finish Little Changed


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Following Late Session Recovery; Grains

Retrace Yesterday's Gains

Feb 20, 2015

rice futures for Mar delivery settled 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22 per ton) lower at $10.790 per

cwt (about $238 per ton). After spending the majority of the trading session in negative territory

the market managed to mount an afternoon recovery to close nearly unchanged. Price action took

on a negative tilt despite a strong export sales report as outside markets turned bearish and the

sentiment in neighboring grain pits weighed on the trade. Today’s session marks the expiration

for options on March futures contracts and traders will keep a keen eye on today’s CFTC report

as well as open interest as the majority of trade action has now moved into the May contract.

May futures finished with a slight gain which is seen as positive given the negative backdrop.

The other grains finished lower as traders likely took profits following yesterday’s rally;

Soybeans closed about 0.8% lower at $9.9925 per bushel; wheat finished about 3.3% lower at

$5.1025 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.2% lower at $3.8525 per bushel.U.S.

stocks turned positive on Friday to trade near highs after reports that indicated progress towards

a Greece deal. The S&P 500 traded above its closing record of 2,100.34 to touch a new intraday

record of 2,103. The Dow traded above its record close of 18,053.71.

The Nasdaq continued to advance towards the key 5,000 level. Euro zone ministers and Greece

agreed on a draft accord that could form the basis for an agreement to extend the Greek bailout, a

Greek government official told Reuters. The Eurogroup foresees 4-month extension to Greek

bailout, Dow Jones reported, citing officials. A press conference will be held at 2:00 p.m. ET,

according to the Eurogroup website. The Eurogroup of regional finance ministers is expected to

make an announcement on Greece's loan extension proposal. Germany rejected the plan on

Thursday and called it a "Trojan horse" with "immense room for interpretation." The Dow Jones

Industrial Average traded up 41 points, or 0.23%, to 18,026.

The S&P 500 traded up 1 point, or 0.07%, to 2,099, with energy the greatest laggard and health

care leading five advancers. The Nasdaq traded up 8 points, or 0.18%, to 4,933. Gold is trading

nearly unchanged, crude oil is seen trading about 0.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading

a touch lower at about 1:45pm Chicago time.Thursday, there were 2,197 contracts traded, down

from 2,771 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding

– on Thursday decreased by 142 contracts to 9,398.


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Pakistan Rice Exports Decline Sharply in

January 2015

Feb 20, 2015

Pakistan exported around 419,153 tons of rice (including basmati and non-basmati) in January

2015, down about 14.5% from around 490,371 tons exported in December 2014, according to

provisional data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). In terms of value, Pakistan's rice

export earnings declined about 14% to around $204.7 million in January 2015 from around

$238.2 million earned in December 2014.Year-on-year, Pakistan’s exports declined about 18%

from around 511,019 tons exported in January 2014.

In terms of value, they declined about 24% from around $267.8 million in January 2014.Pakistan

exported around 34,567 tons of basmati rice in January 2015, down about 12% from around

39,200 tons exported in December 2014 and nearly half of around 67,018 tons exported in


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January 2014. In terms of value, Pakistan's basmati rice exports earned $39.7 million in January

2015, down about 11% from around $44.7 million earned in December 2014, and down about

46% from around $73.97 million earned in January 2014.Pakistan exported around 384,586 tons

of non-basmati rice in January 2015, down about 9% from around 451,171 tons exported in

December 2014 and down about 13% from around 444,001 tons in January 2014.

In terms of value, Pakistan's non-basmati rice exports earned $164.99 million in January 2015,

down about 15% from around $193.5 million earned in December 2014, and down about 15%

from around $193.85 million earned in January 2014.Pakistan has exported around 2.26 million

tons of rice (around 313,540 tons of basmati and around 1.95 million tons of non-basmati) in the

first seven months of FY 2014-15 (July 2014 - June 2015), up about 2% from around 2.22

million tons (around 336,290 tons of basmati and around 1.88 million tons of non-basmati)

exported during the same period in FY 2013-14.

In terms of value, Pakistan's exports earned around $1,181 million (around $315.7 million from

basmati and around $865.85 million from non-basmati) in July 2014 - January 2015, down about

2.5% from around $1,212 million (around $368.5 million from basmati and around $843.4

million from non-basmati) earned during the same period in 2013-14.

Italian Paddy Rice Quotes Mostly Firm

Feb 20, 2015

Italian rice paddy quotes remain firm. Farm gate quotations supplied by the Milan Grain

Exchange as of February 17 are as follows:

Arborio-Volano rice was shown at 725-755 euros (about $ 825-860) per ton, unchanged from the

prior week.Balilla paddy prices are firm at 315-330 euros (about $ 358-375) per ton, unchanged

from the prior week.Lido and similar paddy varieties are unchanged at 360-375 euros (about $

410-427) per ton.Padano-Argo is shown at 570-670 euros (about $ 649-763) per ton, unchanged

from the prior week.Vialone Nano softened to 810-860 euros (about $ 922-979) from 820-870

euros (about $ 934-991) per ton of February 10, due to increased acreage in 2014.

Thaibonnet and similar Indica varieties are are slowly increasing: up to 298-308 euros (about $

339-350) per ton on February 17, up from 278-288 euros (about $ 316-328) per ton a week

prior.Sant'Andrea was quoted 530-580 euros (about $ 603-660) per ton on February 10,

advancing to 560-610 euros (about $ 637-694) per ton on February 17; Ariete and similar

varieties received no quotations on both weeks.Carnaroli was fixed at 725-755 euros (about $

825-860) per ton, unchanged from prior week.Baldo paddy prices were firm at 575-625 euros


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(about $ 654-711) per ton, unchanged from the prior week. Roma is firm at 590- 620 euros

(about $ 672-711) per ton, unchanged from the prior week. Selenio was shown at 345-370 euros

(about $ 392-421) per ton on February 17, up from 340-365 euros (about $ 387-415) per ton on

February 10.

Weekly Recap: Global Rice Quotes Remain

Soft Amid Continued Thailand Political

Drama

Feb 20, 2015

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,

ended the week at about $420 per ton, down about $1 per ton from a week ago, down about $9

per ton from a month ago and down about $41 per ton from a year ago.

Thailand

Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $405 per ton, unchanged from a week and a

month ago and down about $25 per ton from a year ago.

The Thai Attorney General has filed criminal charges against Thailand’s former Prime Minister

Yingluck Shinawatra. She is facing criminal and civil suits in the controversial rice pledging

scheme introduced by her government in October 2011.

The government plans to auction another one million tons of rice from its stockpiles in February

2015.

The UN’s FAO has forecasted Thailand’s 2015 rice exports at around 11 million tons, up about

7% from 2014. The increase is expected despite the anticipated slight decline in production due

to high levels of public stocks and the government’s attempts to clear more of existing rice

stockpiles.

India

India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $395 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week

and a month ago and down about $25 per ton from a year ago.


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The Food Corporation of India has procured around 20.744 million tons of rice in KMS 2014-15

(October-September), according to data by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public

Distribution.

In its second advance estimates for major crops, the government of India has estimated India’s

rice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October-September) at 103.04 million tons, down

about 3% from 2013-14.

Basmati rice exports in fiscal year 2014-15 (April-March) will likely decline by about 10% from

last year, to about 3.2 million tons, according to the Executive Director of the All India Rice

Exporters Association (AIREA).

Vietnam

Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,

down about $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $40 per ton from a year ago.


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Vietnam exported about 271,995 tons of rice from January 1 to February 12, a decrease of about

57% from the first two months of 2014. Average rice export prices so far this year are around

$450 per ton (FOB), up about 5% per ton from the same time last year.

Vietnam is planning to stockpile one million tons of rice starting March 1-April 15.

Pakistan

Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $350 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,


Pakistan exported about 419,153 tons of rice (basmati and non-basmati) in January 2015, down

about 14.5% from December, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

Central & South America

Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $550 per ton, up about $10 per ton from a week

and a month ago and down about $115 per ton from a year ago.

U.S.

U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down

about $15 per ton from a month ago and down about $80 per ton from a year ago.

U.S. farmers are likely to cut down acreage on rice (in addition to wheat, corn, soybeans, and

cotton) in 2015-16 (August-July), due to declining crop prices and profit margins.

The U.S. cash market was firmer this week, continuing last week’s rally amid welcomed demand

from Colombia. Prices reached at least $0.50 per cwt (about $11 per ton) higher than the levels

seen trading last week.

Chicago rough rice futures for March delivery recovered some this week after the Monday

holiday, reaching a high of $10.925 per cwt (about $241 per ton) on Wednesday. Later in the

week there was a slight reversal, but futures still closed up from last week at $10.740 per cwt

(about $237 per ton).

Other Markets

Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $435 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,



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The National Food Authority in the Philippines has decided to import 500,000 tons of well-

milled long grain white rice through G2G deals in efforts to boost buffer stocks ahead of the lean

season (June-August).

Average domestic rice prices in the Philippines increased sharply in 2014

Japan is looking to purchase about 50,856 tons of rice in an ordinary tender. Japan has bought

and sold a total of around 412 tons of whole grain/brown rice of U.S. Australia, and Thailand

origins, and about 640 tons of broken rice of U.S. and Thailand origins in the seventh SBS tender

of FY 2014 (April-March).

The government of Sri Lanka has fixed paddy procurement prices for Nadu and Keeri Samba

varieties harvested during the 2014-15 Maha season (September-March).

The UN’s FAO estimates Nigeria’s total cereal imports, including rice and wheat, will increase

in 2015 to about 7.72 million tons, up about 1% from last year.

The UN’s FAO estimates North Korea’s 2015 paddy production will decline about 9% to 2.62

million tons from about 2.9 million tons in 2014. The decline is expected due to a 4% decline in

plantings and expected lower yields.

The European Commission received about 37 notifications in 2014 from the EU member

countries over rice and rice-based products coming from various countries. Notifications in 2014

were about 15% higher than in 2013.

The UN’s FAO has estimated Sri Lanka’s domestic rice prices will decline in February,

following the government’s decision to release about 100,000 tons of imported rice stocks into

the market during the ongoing 2015 “Maha” season harvest. Prices were relatively high but

stable in 2014.

The USDA Post estimates Malaysia’s milled rice imports will increase to about 1 million tons in

MY 2015-16 (January-December), which is about 1% more than last year, due to expected slow

demand growth.

Indonesia may not import rice immediately despite rising domestic prices, as the Trade Minister says

existing stocks and output from upcoming harvest in March and April will be sufficient to control price

hikes


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Philippines Uses Multi-Environment Trials to

Test Elite Rice Varieties

Feb 20, 2015

The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) is encouraging farmers to test elite rice

varieties through multi-environment trials (MET) to evaluate

their performance in various cropping conditions, according to

local sources.It is understood that the so-called elite rice

varieties or next-gen (next generation) varieties have been

developed with desirable traits, such as high yielding ability,

disease resistance, flood, drought, heat, or salinity tolerance

but their adoption rate is very low. The DA is keen on

increasing the adoption of these varieties in order to boost

production.

According to a Senior Associate Scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), to

know the actual performance of these varieties, they have to tested in different locations rather

than testing in only one location. This is because different varieties are suitable to specific

locations.The MET addresses this issue and allows farmers to observe varietal traits that are

suitable to their location and choose those varieties under a process called Participatory Varietal

Selection (PVS). The IRRI rice breeders will guide farmers in choosing varieties appropriate for

their locations. The process also helps farmers to evaluate rice varieties from vegetative to

ripening stage under conditions specific to their locations. They can test varieties for their

tolerance to pests, texture, aroma, grain length as well as yield.

The Philippines produced around 18.97 million tons (around 11.95 million tons, basis milled) of

rice in 2014, up about 2.87% from around 18.44 million tons (around 11.62 million tons, basis

milled) in 2013. The Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) is estimating the country's paddy rice

output in the first six months (January - July) of 2015 at around 8.55 million tons, up about

2.02% from around 8.38 million tons produced during the same period in 2014. USDA estimates

the Philippines to produce around 19.3 million tons of paddy (around 12.2 million tons, basis

milled) and import around 1.6 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (July - June).

Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com

23 february,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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