23N Regional Elections:The 3rd Impasse of Hugo Chávez Frias

Thomas W. O´Donnell

URPE Summer Conference 2009

23N Regional Elections:The 3rd Impasse of Hugo Chávez Frias

His electoral base eroding and oil revenues down President Chávez abandons the chavista

electoral model, and autonomy of workers’ unions and the press

June 2009Thomas W. O´Donnell

• Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo (CENDES) Universidad Central de Venezuela (UCV), Caracas

• Fulbright Scholar, Venezuela, 2008• Visiting Scholar, Graduate Economics Department The New

School for Social Research, New York (2008-09)

Contact: E-mail: twod@umich.edu URL: http://tomod.com

A. Introduction

• AN ELECTORAL REVOLUTION2• BOLIVARIAN ELECTORAL CRISIS2• SWEEPING RESPONSES4

– Ending electoral opposition4– Ending workers’ autonomous unions6– Threatening to end opposition press and broadcast jour

nalism7

• FAILINGS OF THE BOLIVARIAN-CHAVISMO MODEL7

• WHAT IS TO BE DONE?10

B. The 23N Elections• CLASS OUTCOME OF 23N15• URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN A HIGHLY URBANIZED CO

UNTRY15

• HAS CHAVISMO BEGUN TO LOSE THE URBAN WORKING AND POOR CLASSES?18– Caracas: results in the barrio of Petare19– Caracas: Stalin´s showing in Libertador24– Opposition organizing in Caracas barrios28

• What do workers’ and poor votes for the opposition say about chavista social programs?29

C. Chávez: Revolutionary without a revolutionary party

• THE NEW PSUV36• ORGANIZATIONAL COHESION DERIVED FROM OFFICI

AL CORRUPTION41

• CHAVISTA LACK OF CONTROL: CRIME AND COMPLEXITY OF URBAN AREAS43

• URBAN SITUATIONS FAVORING THE OPPOSITION44• DISTORTIONS OF ELECTORAL DEMOCRACY44

Introduction

Brief background to 23N• 3 impasses of Hugo Chávez Frias

– The revolution, classes– Bolivarianism & chavismo

• Who, Why, How …• From coups to elections• Class/social base• Oil

B. The 23N Elections

• CLASS OUTCOME OF 23N15• URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN A HIGHLY URBANIZED COUN

TRY15

• HAS CHAVISMO BEGUN TO LOSE THE URBAN WORKING AND POOR CLASSES?18– Caracas: results in the barrio of Petare19– Caracas: Stalin´s showing in Libertador24– Opposition organizing in Caracas barrios28

• What do workers’ and poor votes for the opposition say about chavista social programs?29

Metropolitan District of Caracas Ilustración 1: Electoral districts, Metropolitano de Caracas. Source: CNE website, URL: http://www.cne.gov.ve/divulgacion_regionales_2008/mapas/01_grande.jpg

B. The 23N Elections

• CLASS OUTCOME OF 23N15• URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN A HIGHLY URBANIZED COUN

TRY15

• HAS CHAVISMO BEGUN TO LOSE THE URBAN WORKING AND POOR CLASSES?18– Caracas: results in the barrio of Petare19– Caracas: Stalin´s showing in Libertador24– Opposition organizing in Caracas barrios28

• What do workers’ and poor votes for the opposition say about chavista social programs?29

Venezuelan 2005 population data

States won by the opposition on 23 November 2008 are marked with ‘x’.

Population data: Wikipedia

Metropolitan Caracas 4,850,728 19.0 x

# State Population (2005 estimate)%1 Zulia 3,520,376 13.10 x2 Miranda 2,789,073 10.30 x3 Capita District 2,284,291 8.50 x4 Carabobo 2,106,264 8.38 x5 Lara 1,751,625 6.756 Aragua 1,629,433 6.287 Bolívar 1,490,612 5.588 Anzoátegui 1,440,876 5.309 Táchira 1,145,374 4.50 x10 Sucre 895,978 3.5311 Falcón 877,386 3.4512 Portuguesa 848,259 3.3413 Monagas 828,363 3.2614 Mérida 819,760 3.1015 Barinas 730,407 2.87 16 Guérico 723,965 2.8517 Trujillo 691,908 2.5818 Yaracuy 499,049 2.1619 Apure 457,685 1.7920 Nueva Esparta 426,337 1.66 x21 Vargas 329,447 1.2922 Cojedes 291,234 1,1423 Delta Amacuro 149,427 0.4224 Amazonas 136,506 0.30 x TOTAL for opposition: 46.40%

The rates of abstentionism reported by the CNE for voting on 23N, nationally and in various areas discussed here.

Entity Parroquia AbstentionismDivergence from

National

National - 35% N.A.

(Metro. Area) - 38.7 3.7

Libertador - 38.9 3.2

La Pastora 37.6 2.1

23 Enero 35.6 0.6

Candelaria 37.8 2.8

- 39.2 4.2

Petare 39.2 4.2

Zulia 32.3 -2.7

GDP per capita for Latin American states in 2007showing data from three sources: IMF, World Bank and the U.S. CIA. Venezuela had about the fourth highest GDP per capita in Latin America in 2007. This year’s data puts Venezuela somewhat higher than in most years, as 2007 was a year of very high oil prices. In recent years Venezuela has been surpassed now by three other counties whose economies are either not dependent on oil (Chile and Argentina) or significantly less dependent on oil (México). These states have been able to surpass Venezuela by developing more diversified economies. Nevertheless, as compared to most Latin American states, Venezuela’s GDP income should allow it to enjoy a relatively high level of social and economic benefits for all social classes, and to develop a diversified economy. Note its GD P per capita is about 25% higher than Brazil’s, 60% higher than Colombia´s and 300% of Bolivia´s.

Estimate of cumulative migrations into Venezuela.Source: World Bank paper Quantifying international migration” at http://go.worldbank.org/J4ZJ1ZMK40 , based on a database of bilateral migrant stocks (the fourth) produced by University of Sussex, Global Migrant Origin Database, using countries’ 2000 census rounds. “The data … are generated by the stock of migrants at destination country and territory disaggregated by country and territory of origin around the year 2000. They make no reference to the time at which a migration has taken place, but provide only an estimate of the cumulative migrations to date into an area (net of re-emigrations). At present, no global source exists for flow data in which immigration (or emigration) can be related to specific periods of time, for example, movements over the previous 1 year or 5 years. Flow data of this type are only available for a relatively few, generally more developed, countries. In a way, international migration statistics are not far from where data on internal migration were some 40 years ago.”

Urbanization in Latin America, UK, USA and ChinaVenezuela is the most highly urbanized Latin American state after Puerto Rico. Electoral victory in densely populated states and in large cities is especially necessary to govern Venezuela.

Chávez circling ¨main separatist regions¨ during 23N campaign, on Aló Presidente.. Chávez first declared that the population in “Zulia and Tachira” states are “not oppositionn” but rather “really the biggest separatists” and the area of Caracas and its litoral are also not opposition but rather “the second biggest separatists.” Then, with increasing anger, President Chávez reversed this assessment, crossing out the initially drawn “1” and “2” and declared that Caracas and the surrounding littoral are “really the number-one separatists” in the country, and Zulianos are “the number-two sepatarists” in the country. This indicates some of the long term tendency to permanently punish these areas, and to not “waste” resources on them. Photo: T. O´D.

23N voting results from the municipio of Sucreone of five such municipios that, along with the federal district of Caracas comprise the Municipality of Caracas. Results are shown for each of the five local

Stalin and his mom” appearing on the opposition television station Globalvision, on Mother’s Day, 2008during his election campaign for alcalde (mayor) of the municipio of Libertador in Caracas. A student leader from the Central University of Venezuela (UCV) in Caracas, Stalin González, ran as an independent, without any prior electoral experience or organization against the chavista candidate, Jorge Rodriquez, who was actively backed by President Chávez and his national PSUV party. Nevertheless, Stalin received 41% of the vote. Libertador was the only municipio retained by chavista oficialismo in Caracas. Photo: T. O´D.

A wall located on Avenida Las Sciencias in Chaguramos, a working and lower-middle class neighborhood in the Caracas municipality of Libertador, photographed in January 2008, shortly after the 2D 2007 referendum.. It reads, at the top: “All Power to the People.” The lower portion originally read, “Vote yes and yes” (as there were two separate sections to the 2D ballot). This portion has been altered by opposition activists to read “Vote NO and No”, to which, then, pro-government activists added a leading “No”, so that it finally reads “Don´t Vote No and No.” The printed sign on the light poll is in favor of a ‘yes’ vote for the referendum: “Yes, with Chávez.” To the right, the initials “CNE” stand for “Commission National de Elections.” The line through the initials and the slogan “NO VOTAS” above it, calls for boycott of the referendum, and indicates mistrust in the government electoral commission. Photo: T. O´D.

23 Enero, Municipio de Libertador, City of Caracas

JORGE RODRIGUEZ Adjudicado

28.740 Votos

66,91 %

STALIN GONZALEZ

11.957 Votos

27,83 %

CLAUDIO FERMIN

1.274 Votos

2,96 %

ANDREA TAVARES

472 Votos

1,09 %

La Pastora, Municipio de Libertador, City of Caracas

STALIN GONZALEZ

16.741 Votos

41,81 %

JORGE RODRIGUEZ Adjudicado

21.067 Votos

52,62 %

CLAUDIO FERMIN

1.309 Votos

3,26 %

ANDREA TAVARES

479 Votos

1,19 %

Candelaria, Municipio de Libertador, City of Caracas

STALIN GONZALEZ

17. 705 Votos

62,55 %

JORGE RODRIGUEZ Adjudicado

9.252 Votos

32,68 %

CLAUDIO FERMIN

847 Votos

2,99 %

ANDREA TAVARES

219 Votos

0,77 %

A wall slogan in the 23 Enero barrioLa Piedrita is the leader of a pro-chavista collective located there. The leader was ordered arrested by Chávez when he was confronted by exposés that appeared in the opposition press, based on a tape recording of La Piedrita ordering members of his group to stop and confront Jews on the street, and demand they tell whether their loyalties are to Israel or Venezuela during the 2008 Israeli invasion of Gaza. This occurred in a heightened atmosphere of tensions just after the main synagogue in Caracas had been invaded by several armed men and desecrated, and the names and addresses of Jewish families taken from the computers. Several members of the PM, the Metropolitan Police of Caracas and a central-government intelligence officer were eventually arrested and charged in the synagogue invasion after Chávez had opined that it had really been a provocation committed by the opposition themselves to tar the chavista government. The collective engages in forceful, sometimes armed, interventions such as, in May 2009, occupying a hospital the government was nationalizing. The wall slogan reads “Honor and Glory” to “Raul Reyes”, the FARC guerrilla leader who was killed in Ecuador in 2008 by Colombian Armed Forces in a cross-border raid. It is signed, “FARC-EP” where EP indicates People´s Army. La Piedrita is among the many chavista organizations that openly support the FARC. (Photo courtesy Dale Graden.)

B. The 23N Elections

• CLASS OUTCOME OF 23N15

• URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN A HIGHLY URBANIZED COUNTRY15

• HAS CHAVISMO BEGUN TO LOSE THE URBAN WORKING AND POOR CLASSES?18– Caracas: results in the barrio of Petare19– Caracas: Stalin´s showing in Libertador24– Opposition organizing in Caracas barrios28

• What do workers’ and poor votes for the opposition say about chavista social programs?29

Figure 1. Left: Posters for Nuevo Tiempo candidates P. Perez and M. Rosals for 23 November 2008 elections, posted in Santa Lucia community in Maracaibo. Right: “Manuel Rosales … Don´t turn yourself in, Zulia Supports You!” on wall between the O´Leary Bridge and Plaza Miranda in

Maracaibo, taken May 2, 2009, shortly after he fled to Peru. (T.O’D)

B. The 23N Elections

• CLASS OUTCOME OF 23N15• URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN A HIGHLY URBANIZED COUN

TRY15

• HAS CHAVISMO BEGUN TO LOSE THE URBAN WORKING AND POOR CLASSES?

18– Caracas: results in the barrio of Petare 19– Caracas: Stalin´s showing in Libertador 24– Opposition organizing in Caracas barrios 28

• What do workers’ and poor votes for the opposition say about chavista social programs?29

C. Chávez: Revolutionary without a revolutionary party

• THE NEW PSUV 36• ORGANIZATIONAL COHESION DERIVED FROM

OFFICIAL CORRUPTION 41• CHAVISTA LACK OF CONTROL: CRIME AND

COMPLEXITY OF URBAN AREAS 43• URBAN SITUATIONS FAVORING THE OPPOSITION 44• DISTORTIONS OF ELECTORAL DEMOCRACY 44

A banner displayed at the entrance to the Founding Congress of the PSUV (Partido Socialista Unida de Venezuela) at the campus of the Bolivarian University in Chaguramos, in Caracas, on the 16 and 17th of February 2008. Photo: T. O´D.

Another banner displayed at the entrance to the Founding Congress of the PSUV, on 16 and 17 February, 2008. It reads “Welcome delegates of the PSUV to Insurgent Caracas.” Photo: T. O´D

A. Introduction

• AN ELECTORAL REVOLUTION 2• BOLIVARIAN ELECTORAL CRISIS 2• CHÁVEZ’ SWEEPING RESPONSES 4

– Ending electoral opposition 4– Ending workers’ autonomous unions 6– Threatening to end opposition press and broadcast

journalism 7• FAILINGS OF THE BOLIVARIAN-CHAVISMO MODEL

7• WHAT IS TO BE DONE? 10

THE END