24-25 march 2015, christchurch, nz advances in ... · 3/3/2015 · “hand-off” of tree list...
TRANSCRIPT
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Advances in productivity research in the Pacific Northwest
Doug MaguireCollege of Forestry
Oregon State University
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Topics:
• Biophysical setting and limits on net primary production
• Current research questions addressing productivity
• Current silvicultural research activities addressing productivity
• Synthesis of forest productivity research
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Biophysical setting
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Oregon Coast Range(s)
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
High productivity Douglas-fir & western hemlock
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Annual precipitation
250-500
65-250
12- 65
cm
500 cm
12 cm
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Western Oregon/Washington monthly precipitation and temperature (~vapor pressure deficit)
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Water limitations to Douglas-fir net primary production, growth, and yield
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Portland
Large “industrial” ownerships in Coast Range (and foothills of the Cascades Mountains)
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Clearcut:
Regenerationcut in clearcuttingsilviculturalsystem
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Planting as soon as soil temperaturestarts to warm up in mid- to late-winter
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Key decisions on competing
vegetation control for growth (survival)
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Vegetation Management Research Cooperative
Concurrentmonitoring of soil moisture, seedling water stress, and growth over six alternativeregimes for controllingcompetingvegetation
Dinger and Rose 2009
Increasing aggressive competing vegetation control
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Genetic improvement Seed lot Site
preparation Planting Release
Fertilization
Thinning Fertilization HarvestNursery tech
Genetic improvement Seed production
Nursery technologySite preparation
PlantingFertilization
ReleaseThinning
FertilizationHarvest
Silvicultural technology
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Genetic improvement Seed lot Site
preparation Planting Release
Fertilization
Thinning Fertilization HarvestNursery tech
Genetic improvement Seed production
Nursery technologySite preparation
PlantingFertilization
ReleaseThinning
FertilizationHarvest
PNW silvicultural technology
NTC
HSCNWTIC
PNWTIRCSNCC
VMRC
Industry/agencysponsored research cooperatives
SMC
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PNW Tree Improvement
Research Coop
NW Tree Improvement
Coop
Nursery Tech Coop
Vegetation Management
Research Coop
HardwoodSilviculture
Coop
StandManagement
CoopSwiss Needle
Cast Coop
PrecisionForestry Coop
Industry & AgencyclientsNewton Maguire
Harrington
Ritchie
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Increasing amount of increasingly
fragmentedinformation!
AND diminished capacity for
interpreting and synthesizing this
information.
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pollencontamination
breeding values from progeny tests stock type & stock
physiology
Critical period threshold
Alder response to spacing
Thinning and fertilizationresponses
Foliage age class dynamics
LIDAR technology
Ripariansilviculture
non-N fertlization
water use by competition
young stand model
SYNTHESIS AND INTEGRATION
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Center for Intensive Planted-forest Silviculture
Project initiation 2009
Fragmented mass of data on intensive silviculture of Douglas-fir
Synthesis of existing data and information
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CIPS Vision
To develop , maintain, and validate comprehensive, science-based models andother tools for managing planted forests under intensive silvicultural practices in the Pacific Northwest.
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CIPS MissionTo understand and quantify the interactive effects of silviculturalactivities and site conditions onmaintaining and improving the productivity, health, and sustainability of intensively-managed, planted forests in the Pacific Northwest.
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CIPS Mission
Silvicultural activities include genetic tree improvement, stock type production and selection, site preparation, planting technology, control of competing vegetation, stand density management, pruning, nutritional amendment, and protection from insects, disease, and animal damage.
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CIPS Mission
Site conditions include the many biotic and abiotic facets of forest soils and climatic drivers of forest productivity.
Summer droughtSoi
l wat
er c
onte
nt
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
CIPS projects INCORPORATE advances in productivity research:
Collaborations with existing research cooperatives and projects.
CIPS projects REPRESENT advances in productivity research:
Synthesis of existing data, information, and principles into a more coherent picture of rotation-length silvicultural strategies.
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Sample of CIPS projects:• Refinement of young stand models• Better site characterization (soil, climate)• Mechanisms driving productivity and response to
silviculture (based on better site characterization)• Modelling direct and indirect responses to thinning
and fertilization• Morphological representation of genetic tree
improvement in growth models• Individual-tree growth multipliers for Swiss needle
cast growth impact• Estimation of biomass productivity, carbon pools
and fluxes, and nutrient pools and fluxes• Simulation of wood quality attributes• Suites of tools (XORG, CIPSR ORGANON)
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Refinement of young stand models for Douglas-fir plantations
Change in predicted growth potential
“Hand-off” of tree list from young stand model to established stand model
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Refinement of young stand models for Douglas-fir plantations
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Refinement of young stand models for Douglas-fir plantations
2006. Forestry 79:57-79
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Refinement of young stand models for Douglas-fir plantations
Y
T2 = time gain to given yieldY = yield gain at given time
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Refinement of young stand models for Douglas-fir plantations
Challenge: rotation age = ~ (35-) 40-50 (-70) yrs
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Refinement of young stand models for Douglas-fir plantations
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
For now, rely on well-conditioned and objective models for projecting rotation-age benefits to Douglas-fir plantations
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Simulations of diameter growth, height growth,
mortality of individual trees during stand establishment
Submodels for simulating dynamics of competing
vegetation
Modifier functions for effects of competing
vegetation on tree growth
Current approach to finding a better answer
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
What to the data look like?(What is best approach to modeling these data?)
Decline in cover
Increase in cover
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Approach:
• Simplify to 4 life forms• Herbs (forb+fern+graminoid)• Shrubs• Hardwood trees• Other conifer trees
• Predict probability of an increase in cover vs. decrease
• Predict conditional increase and conditional decrease in competing vegetation cover
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Average expected annual change in cover:E( cov )= pi ( cov|increase) +
(1 pi) ( cov|decrease)
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Results from simulating competing vegetation dynamics –For differing initial conditions in cover by lifeform
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Height growth multiplier by differing levels of summed lifeform cover (%)
Summedlifeform% cover
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Height growth multiplier implied by 50% cover of three lifeforms of competing vegetation
% cover by lifeform
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Increasing intensity of competing vegetation control
Results from simulatingDouglas-fir
growth–Differing years
of transfer between
models and differing
conversions of site index
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Implied PNV by age, with reduction to 10% competing vegetation cover and subsequent thinning
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
More work to do on refinement of young stand models for Douglas-fir plantations!
Mechanisms driving productivity and response to silviculture (based on better site characterization)
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
It’s the water, of course!
AWHC(field capacity at start of growing
season)
Growing season precipitation
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Monitoring soil water availability and use under varying silvicultural regimes
Fertilization with 224 kg N/ha as ureaMid- to late-summer
water limitations
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Annualized growth predictionsGrowth driven by soil & weather
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
NaturalResourcesConservationService
Soils maps
Data for soil pits by series
Pedotransfer functions
Available water holding capacity
Raster files accessible to CIPSR for given latitude and longitude
Practical on-site field assessment
for index or calibration?
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Simulation of wood quality attributes• Juvenile wood core wood density profiles• Branch size and distribution• Internal knot geometry• Heartwood / sapwood delineation• Environmental controls on earlywood / latewood ratios
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Heartwood model: height of heartwood coretaper of heartwood core
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Chronosequence of branch angles
Internal knot geometry
Nate Osborne, Ph.D. candidate
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
1-cm increment cores
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Developing calibration model to convert the Hounsfield units (x-ray attenuation units) to wood density at various moisture contents
Increment core
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Josza and Middleton 1994
Goal: Wood density profiles in response
to site and silviculture
RPBC 2003
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Modelling direct and indirect responses to thinning and fertilization
But also, as repeated rotations are harvested, are other nutrients important?
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
“Beyond N” fertilization trialsSoil moisture and
temperature monitoring
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
“Beyond N” fertilization trials
Treatment Form Amount Reason for inclusion
Control - - - - Statistical reference for treatments
N Urea 224 kg N/ha Industry standard
Lime CaCO3 1000 kg Ca/ha Elevates pH, reduces Al, adds Ca
Ca CaCl2 100 kg Ca/ha Add Ca without change in pH
P Na3PO4 500 kg P/ha P-fixing soils in Coast Range
Kinsey Blend Site specific Agricultural regime to “feed” soil
Fenn Blend Site specific Optimal ratios of foliar nutrients
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56
58
60
62
64
66
68
Control N Lime CaCl2 P Kinsey Fenn
Tree
leve
l PAV
G (d
m3 )
0.0070.089
0.0170.098
0.0330.139
P-valueswithout covariates:with covariates:
Three-year volume growth response
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Estimation of biomass productivity, carbon pools and fluxes, and nutrient pools and fluxes
Sustainability of utilizing logging residuals as feedstock for liquid biofuels production
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Coons 2014
Douglas-firbiomassdistribution(28-35-yr-oldplantations)
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
New biomass equations for intensivelymanagedDouglas-firplantations
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Douglas-fir nutrient distribution
Coons 2014
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Biomass distribution
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Coons 2014
Douglas-fir nutrient removals under four scenarios:
WT: whole treeBT: bole minus topVC: bole minus half crownBO: bole only
Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
Implications for managing nutrition under intensive silivculture
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
XORG – CIPS growth simulator (Doug Mainwaring)Includes biomass and nutrient content by tree component
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
XORG – CIPS growth simulatior (Doug Mainwaring)Includes biomass and nutrient content by tree component
Nutrient concentrations by tree component
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
XORG – CIPS growth simulatior (Doug Mainwaring)Biomass per ha by tree component for each year
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Growing Confidence in Forestry’s Future 24-25 March 2015, Christchurch, NZ
XORG – CIPS growth simulatior (Doug Mainwaring)Nutrient content per ha by tree component for each year
Periodicuptake(kg/ha/5yrs)
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Silvicultural technologyAdvances in productivity research in the Pacific Northwest?
• Silvicultural research on productivity is very fragmented (need for more information, but equal or greater need to synthesize existing information)
• Productivity of a Douglas-fir rotation depends on interaction of silvicultural activities implemented at very different phases of the rotation
• Interactions of treatments at a single point in time are relatively well understood, or at least tractable
• Interactions among activities in the chain of silvicultural activities are poorly understood, and not so easy to track
• Integration with models can helpful but can also introduce biases, so ultimately require field testing.
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Thanks for your attention !