TAJIKISTAN

SEPTEMBER - OCTOBER 2008

Prof. Saodat Olimova*Bimonthly article

Highlights

Several important events were held from 26-29August in Dushanbe, among which the official visitof the Chinese President, the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (SCO) summit, the official visit of thePresident of Russia, the meeting of presidents ofPersian-speaking countries (Tajikistan, Iran andAfghanistan). Russia and the crisis in the Caucasuswere ,the focus of the SCO summit. The members ofthe summit made a neutral and laconic assessmentof developments in the Caucasus, duly reflected inthe Dushanbe Declaration. During the bilateralmeetings, SCO leaders nonetheless expressed supportfor Russia’s actions in the Caucasus. The summitmembers found themselves in a complicated situationowing to the host of similar unresolved problems inSCO member states and to the various configurationsof foreign policy and foreign economic relations.

Since the conclusion of the SCO summit, Tajikistanhas entered a complex diplomatic and geopoliticalarena. The growing alienation of Russia and theWest (USA and the European Union) put Tajikistanin the difficult position of having to make a newchoice between Moscow and other countries.Tajikistan’s “multi-directional” foreign policy clashedwith the need to demonstrate loyalty to Russia. Thisis especially important in the light of Tajikistan’sstatus as a member of the Collective Security TreatyOrganization (CSTO) along with Russia, Belarus,Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.At the same time, the SCO summit and subsequentand related events have shown that the SCO hasbeen actively developing economic cooperation inan attempt to oust the European Union and theUnited States from Tajikistan.

Internal affairs

An important event in this respect was the celebrationof Tajikistan’s seventeenth anniversary ofindependence on 8 September. Several other eventswere scheduled to coincide with this celebration,notably the International Symposium «Rudaki andthe World of Culture» to commemorate the 1150thanniversary of the birth of the classic Tajik-Persianpoet Abuabdullo Rudaki. The speech by PresidentRakhmon on Independence Day included newprovisions, ideas and terminology. For instance,contrary to previous official rhetoric, PresidentRahmon spoke about the relationship between Islamand national culture. He attempted to resolve thecontradiction between Islam and nationalism bycombining Islam and nationalism in the frameworkof the traditional Hanafi branch of Islam, which hasreceived the status of state religion. The Presidentstated that «for many centuries, Tajiks have beenmaking a significant contribution to the establishmentand development of Islamic civilization and culture.Deep familiarity with the history of Islam isimpossible without examining and assessing thespecial role of Tajiks in this process». The Presidentstressed that it was fundamentally wrong to separateIslam from the national culture and national culturefrom Islam. The presidential declaration in supportof Hanafi Islam and the idea of declaring 2009 theYear of Imam Abuhanifa Numan ibn Sabit raisedacute interest. According to President Rakhmon, «itis due to the efforts of the Grand Imam that the Tajiklanguage was given the special status of the languageof worship among believers, and the status of thesecond language of the inhabitants of paradise».These statements by the President have become asignal to adjust the religious policy of the state,indicating that Tajikistan has entered a period ofpost-secularism. These declarations were immediately

*Deputy Director, Research Center Sharq, Dushanbe.

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The Central Asia Observatory (CAO)was established in 2007 by threeinstitutions that are interested in thearea: Casa Asia, CIDOB Foundationand Royal Institute Elcano

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November 2008

endorsed by the Party of Islamic Revival of Tajikistan(PIRT), which proclaims exactly the sameinterpretation of the relationship between Islam andnationalism. While it is difficult to say how thesepresidential declarations will be implemented inreality, the statements made by the Presidentdemonstrate significant changes in state ideology.

The anti-drug effortFrom 16-22 September, «Kanal-2008», the annualpreventive operation to combat illegal drugtrafficking, took place. According to the Anti-DrugAgency, law enforcement agencies and border troopsin Tajikistan identified 38 crimes related tosmuggling and drug trafficking. In the course of“Kanal-2008”, over 953 kilograms of narcotics wereseized.

Foreign and international policy

The Republic of Tajikistan is implementing its so-called “multi-directional” foreign policy, aimed atestablishing and maintaining good and mutuallybeneficial relations with various countries.Nevertheless, relations with Russia have traditionallybeen the priority. Therefore, the visit of the RussianPresident Dmitry Medvedev on 29 August 2008 wasa significant event in foreign political life inTajikistan. On the one hand, the visit breathed newlife into Tajik-Russian relations, on the other, itexacerbated existing differences and contradictions.

During the visit, President Medvedev signed sixdocuments aimed at promoting bilateral trade,economic and cultural cooperation. The signedagreements concern cooperation in agriculture andthe strengthening of cultural links. Medvedev andRahmon signed a memorandum on cooperation inthe implementation of new energy projects inTajikistan: the parties have agreed to construct threenew hydro power stations on the inland rivers ofTajikistan and to allow the participation of Russiancompanies in the completion of the Rogun

hydroelectric power station as well as to launchexploration work in the field of energy commodities,gas and uranium. The Russian companies Gazprom,Rosatom and Inter RAO EES are expected toparticipate in these projects.

The most complex project involving Russianparticipation is the construction of the Rogunhydroelectric power station, with projected poweroutput of 3600 megawatts. Russia began negotiatingits participation in the construction of the powerstation in 1994. In 2004 an agreement to completeits construction was reached between RUSAL ofRussia and the Tajik government. However, theagreement was accompanied by numerous tensionsconcerning the type of dam projected, its height, thesize of each participant’s share in the project and theassessed cost of construction. Finally, the Tajikgovernment annulled the 2007 agreement withRUSAL. Consultations on Russia's participation inthe completion of the project have since resumed,following President Medvedev’s visit to Tajikistan.

Security and military cooperation is anotherimportant aspect of Tajik-Russian relations. Russiaand Tajikistan have traditionally enjoyed a high levelof political and military cooperation. Recent eventshave shown that Russia is beginning to play anincreasingly prominent role in world affairs. Themilitary conflict in Georgia and the financial crisisin America attest to the changes that have taken placein terms of the distribution of power in the world,particularly in Eurasia. With regard to Tajikistan,this change has primarily been mirrored in thestrengthening of Russian military presence inTajikistan. Thus, during President Medvedev’s visitto the country, an agreement on the joint use of Ainimilitary airport in Hissar was reached. The maingoal of Russian squadrons at the Aini airfield will beto support operations launched from Russian militarybases, including its base in Tajikistan. In addition,the military and technical upgrade forecast at theRussian military base in Tajikistan (former 201 rifles

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division) will result in the Tajik National armyreceiving the old armaments of the Russian militarybase, estimated at $1 billion. The allocation of theseweapons to Tajikistan is expected to significantlystrengthen its armed forces.

EU relationsIn addition to Russia and China, the EU plays a veryactive role in Tajikistan. Interaction with the EU hasbeen very productive in the framework of financialcooperation, as stipulated in the EU Strategy for2007-2013. This strategy specifies three mainpriorities: effective governance and economic reform,poverty reduction and regional cooperation.Tajikistan is also cooperating with the EU in projectsrelated to combating terrorism, extremism,organized crime, drug trafficking and proliferationof WMD, and in addressing environmental problems.Intensive work is being conducted in the field ofborder management.

On 17-18 September 2008, the first Security Forum«The European Union - Central Asia» took place.The forum focused on the following topics: politico-military threats, drug trafficking and bordermanagement, energy security and environment. Allthese issues tie in with the new concept of cooperativesecurity. One of the first activities planned to takeplace after the forum was the government-supportedconference «Border management and combatingillicit drug trafficking in Central Asia», which washeld in Dushanbe on 21-22 October 2008.Participants at the conference includedrepresentatives of governments of the Central Asianrepublics and the EU, the European Commission,OSCE, OONODS, UNDP, France, Germany andFinland. The goal of the conference was to definemeasures aimed at helping the countries of CentralAsia to strengthen their institutional commitmentsin regional cooperation and to establish mechanismsfor coordination.

On 20 October, the opening ceremony of the OSCEOffice in Tajikistan took place in Dushanbe. Althoughan OSCE office had already been functioning formany years, the new OSCE office was given a mandateto facilitate cooperation in the field of monitoringstate borders, migration, media development andother issues.

Economy and business enterprises

Tajikistan has been experiencing positive economicgrowth for a number of years. GDP for January-September 2008 exceeded $3.6 billion, representinga 7.2% increase over the same period last year inrelative prices. According to the State StatisticalCommittee, GDP breaks down as follows: production43.6%, services 43.8% and taxes 12.6%.

Construction of major infrastructure projects isscheduled, among which LEP-500 «South-North»and LEP-220 «Lolazor-Khatlon» in the Khatlonregion, the construction of transit transport corridors,tunnels and bridges. In early October, the third phaseof the road rehabilitation project (Dushanbe –Kyrgyzstan border) was launched. This project isbeing financed with soft loans issued by AsianDevelopment Bank.

Ongoing construction projects are under way atRogun hydroelectric power station, the Sangtuda-1hydroelectric power station (with Russia) andSangtuda-2 (with Iran). However, despite the growthin GDP, rising food and fuel prices combined withinflation have adversely affected the welfare of thepopulation. According to the State StatisticalCommittee, prices of food products have increased14.5%, the index for non-food products is up 4.4%and the cost of paid services has risen 21.2% sincethe beginning of the year. Monthly inflation rates inthe consumer sector are estimated at 1.41%. InOctober, then, the average consumer residing inTajikistan was estimated to spend about $30 on foodper month.

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Tajikistan's foreign trade turnover in the periodJanuary-September 2008 amounted to $ 3.54 billion,24% ($685.4 million) more than in the same periodlast year. According to the State StatisticalCommittee, total trade balance was a negative,amounting to $1.25 billion. Tajikistan maintainedforeign trade relations with 92 countries around theworld. The trade deficit with the CIS countriesamounted to $1.19 billion. Trade with non-CISforeign countries showed a surplus of $51.9 million.Over the reported period, exports came to $1.14billion and imports to $2.39 billion. The followingCIS countries are major trading partners in foreigntrade: Russia ($864.1 million), Kazakhstan ($206.5million) and Uzbekistan ($174.8 million). Non-CISmajor trading partner countries are Turkey ($454.6million), the Netherlands ($417 million) and China ($ 315.6 million).

In September, the World Bank report “Doingbusiness in Tajikistan and Business Climate” wasissued in Tajikistan. According to the report,Tajikistan has dropped three positions, ranking159th among 181 countries with the worst conditionsfor running businesses. The worsening of thebusiness climate in Tajikistan was attributed tofurther complication of administrative regulation.The time needed to obtain a construction permit, forexample, has increased to 160 days. The report showsthat the business environment is suffering from theeffects of overly complicated registration procedures,a complex tax system and high taxes, and very highcorruption levels.

The world financial crisis has not had a direct impacton the financial system in Tajikistan due to the poorintegration of the national financial sector in theglobal financial system.

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The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the positions of the Central Asia Observatory (CAO).The institutions that constitute the CAO are not responsible for the useof these contents.

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