25/- awaiting the dragon - karvy · pdf filekarvy comtrade’s ... 08 issue 02 hyderabad...

Invest & HarvestA Comprehensive English Monthly Magazine on Commodity Futures

Karvy Comtrade’s

Volume 08 Issue 02 Hyderabad March 2015 Pages 36 `25/-

AWAITING THE DRAGONCopper’s revival hinges on Chinese demand

March 2015 Karvy Comtrade’s Invest & Harvest 3

EditorSushil Sinha

Managing EditorTR Vivek

Executive EditorVeeresh Hiremath

Padma Venkatraman

Research TeamJitendra K ParasharRamesh Chenchala

Ravi Shankar PandeyRaj Nawab Singh Kashyap

Sarika R. AgarwalSonali Patnaik

Sujal ShahTapan Trivedi

ProductionVijayendra Kumar Ch.

DistributionShabna R. Iyer

Printed & Published by:Sushil Kumar Sinha

on behalf ofKarvy Consultants Limited.

Karvy House, 46Avenue 4, Street No-1, Banjara Hills

Hyderabad-500034. AP.

Printed at:Harshitha Printers

6-2-985, Yousuf BuildingAdj. Railway Gate,

Khairatabad, Hyderabad-500004

Editor: Sushil Sinha

The union budget has been ruling the roost of news from even before Finance Minister Arun Jaitley formally presented it on February 28, 2015. While much has been changed to

make India more fi scally prudent and prosper through economic growth, industry expectations have quite not been met satisfactorily.

With concern to the commodities and trading community, FCRA has been repealed in this budget and commodity derivatives have been introduced under the defi nition of ‘securities’ in the SCRA. This is expected to pave the way for deepening of the commodity markets through participation of banks, FIIs and mutual funds. Giving with one hand, the FM took back part of the joy as he kept the Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) untouched even as the industry was hopeful of a cut. Many had even anticipated a removal altogether. Introduced by P Chidambaram, the CTT is a levy of 0.01% of the transactional value on the seller in the futures trading of various non-farm items. According to reports, more than 80% of trade volumes in the domestic markets takes place in bullion, metals and energy, and the imposition of CTT has resulted in a major drop in turnover at the country’s commodity exchanges. The Forwards Market Commission (FMC) pegs the cumulative value of trades fell to Rs 53.92 lakh crore in the April-Feburary period of this fi scal from Rs 92.05 lakh crore in the same period a year ago, a drop of over 41%. Another major development is the proposed merger between Sebi and FMC, which the FM believes will help streamline the monitoring of commodity futures trading and curb speculation.

In other news, the continuation of volatility in fuel prices is edging car manufacturers to come up with fuel-effi cient designs, a solution to which has been found in reduction of body weight of the automotives. This translates to a paradigm shift in the metals industry as more and more auto players move to using aluminium for car bodies. Demand is set to spike up in the next few years.

Back home, Copper prices languish with the metal declining around 13% in January, struck both fundamentally and on a macroeconomic scale. February saw gains of 5.1% that was enough to cover the losses of the previous month, but the metal still trades down 8.33% from the beginning of the year. Read our cover story on copper. We recommend selling the red metal in the medium term from higher levels, but do watch out for triggers from China.

Our commodity of the month is Mentha Oil that surged around 9% from Rs 747 to Rs 814 per Kg over the past three weeks in an otherwise dismal commodities market. The slow pace of sowing activities is indirectly creating tightness from the supply side and thereby has led to consumption of carryover stocks. Additionally, there is news of reduction in mentha oil production next crop season, which is supporting the prices to remain elevated. Our fundamental as well as technical analyses suggest a bullish trend for the price of this commodity in the near term.

EDITORIAL

Note: The data in all charts and tables have been sourced from Bloomberg, KCTL Research, unless otherwise indicated.

Transitioning CommoditiesTransitioning Commodities

March 2015 Karvy Comtrade’s Invest & Harvest March 2015 Karvy Comtrade’s Invest & Harvest4 5

CONTENTS

Cover Story

Copper: Two Sides Of A Coin 12

DisclaimerThe technical studies / analysis discussed here can be at odds with our fundamental views / analysis. The report contains the opinions of the author(s) that are not to be construed as invest-ment advice. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy, and its affi liates, cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for results of the posi-tions taken based on the opinions expressed within. The opinions are based on the information believed to be accurate, and no assurance can be given for the accuracy of this information. There is risk of loss in trading in derivatives. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affi liates cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading.Commodity derivatives trading involves substantial risk. The valuation of the underlying may fl uctuate, and as a result, clients may lose their entire original investment. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, or from, Karvy Comtrade that you will profi t or that losses can, or will be, limited in any manner whatsoever. The past results are no indication of future performance. The information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management, or investment advisory services.

Features & Updates

By Invitation

Special Feature

Gleaming Gold 20 - MMR Bureau

Budget And Commodities 09

Social Is The Way Even For Companies 16

Commodity Of The Month: Mentha 26

Lightweight Cars in Vogue; Spur Aluminum Demand 24 - Pramod Shinde, MMR Bureau

Sunshine For Turmeric 22

Operational Risk Management 30 - Alok Kumar Sinha, Chief Manager, SBI

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68

81

94

107

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1385


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2-Feb 7-Feb 12-Feb 17-Feb 22-Feb 27-Feb

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2-Feb 7-Feb 12-Feb 17-Feb 22-Feb 27-Feb

STATISTICS

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2-Feb 7-Feb 12-Feb 17-Feb 22-Feb 27-Feb210

227

244

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295

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COMEX Gold (US$/oz) NYMEX Crude (US$/bbl)

Thomson Reuters Jefferies CRB Index MCX Crude Oil Price Movement ($/bbl)

Rogers International Commodity Index NCDEX Turmeric Price Movement (Rs/quintal)

S&P GSCI Commodity Index NCDEX Barley Price Movement (Rs/quintal)

Major Global Commodity Index Performers Of The Month (MCX/NCDEX)


-1.0

0.5

2.0

3.5

5.0

6.5

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

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-14

Jan-

15

7.65

7.95

8.25

8.55

8.85

9.15

Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-1558.5

59.6

60.7

61.8

62.9

64.0


STATISTICS

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2

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6

Dec

-13

Jan-

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Rupee Movement 10-year Bond Yield (%)

Infl ation (%) Index of Industrial Production (%)

DoE Inventory Levels (February) Inventory level M/M change (%)

Crude oil 406727 -8.47

Gasoline 238335 -0.72

Distillate 28694 -7.52

Refi nary Utilization (%) 88 1.62Note: DoE - Department of Energy; volumes in thousand barrel

LME Inventory Levels (February) Inventory level M/M change (%)

Nickel 428676 0.57Aluminium 3946650 -2.53Copper 296375 19.45Zinc 567350 -10.05Lead 214750 -0.12

Note: LME - London Metal Exchange; volumes in metric tonne

Exchange Rate TrendsJan 30,

2015Feb 27,

2014% Change 52 Week

High% Change from

52 Week High52 Week

Low% Change for52 Week Low

Indian Rupee 61.8700 61.8388 -0.05% 63.8875 -3.21% 58.3350 6.01%

Euro 1.1291 1.1196 -0.84% 1.3993 -19.99% 1.0823 3.45%

Great Britain Pound 1.5060 1.5438 2.51% 1.7192 -10.20% 1.4952 3.25%

Japanese Yen 117.4900 119.6300 1.82% 121.8500 -1.82% 100.8200 18.66%

Swiss Franc 0.9202 0.9543 3.71% 1.0240 -6.81% 0.7406 28.85%

Canadian Dollar 1.2732 1.2515 -1.70% 1.2799 -2.22% 1.0621 17.83%

Australian Dollar 0.7762 0.7808 0.59% 0.9505 -17.85% 0.7626 2.39%

New Zealand Dollar 0.7261 0.7564 4.17% 0.8836 -14.40% 0.7177 5.39%

Danish Krone 6.5920 6.6648 1.10% 6.8818 -3.15% 5.3338 24.95%

Norwegian Krone 7.7291 7.6655 -0.82% 7.9160 -3.16% 5.8491 31.05%

Swedish Krona 8.2859 8.3373 0.62% 8.5551 -2.55% 6.3254 31.81%Note: All quotes are against the US dollar.

News Digest

FMC-SEBI merger sounds death knell for ‘dabba’ marketThe proposed merger of FMC with Sebi to create a uni-fi ed markets regulator has sounded a death knell for the illicit ‘dabba trading’, estimated to have a turnover of up to Rs 1 lakh crore a day. In commodities alone, the overall dabba trading clocks turnover to the tune of Rs 50,000-1,00,000 crore a day, while the volumes for il-licit stock trades outside the purview of stock exchang-es also run into tens of thousands of crores. While regu-lators and enforcement agencies have been trying hard to curb this menace for a long time, the lack of a uni-fi ed regulatory mechanism has so far made it diffi cult to fully control this problem. The efforts to check this menace are likely to get a major boost with Sebi being given the jurisdiction to regulate commodity markets as well following FMC merger, as the capital markets regulator already enjoys greater powers including those to conduct search and seizure, impose penalties, order arrests and take other strict actions against wrongdoers. (Sources: Economic Times)

Subsidy late, India likely to produce only 8-10 lakh tonne raw sugar India’s raw sugar production in the rest of this sea-son is likely to fall way short of the 1.4 million-tonne that mills can export under a subsidy programme an-nounced by the government last week. This is because the announcement has come “too late”, with very few days remaining for cane-crushing.

India is likely to produce only 8-10 lakh tonne of raw sugar, said industry executives. Of these, more than 50% is expected to be consumed by Indian sugar re-fi neries, which would be considered as deemed exports and would come under the subsidy programme. (Sources:

Economic Times)

Stretched rubber farmers turning to nutmeg Will the persistent low price of natural rubber prompt more farmers in Kerala to take up cultivation of nut-meg? The farming of nutmeg, which is fetching good prices, has steadily grown even as the acreage of pep-per and cardamom—the two major spices of the state—has declined. That nutmeg prices have not shown much fl uctuation like other spices, may also work in favour of this spice largely cultivated in Kerala and in some areas in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Nutmeg prices have seen a rise in the last few years, driven by a good export demand, though majority of

the over 12,000-tonne output is consumed locally. In the last 15 months, rubber prices dropped as much as 40% and the situation doesn’t look rosy in the com-ing months with international prices continuing to fall. Rubber farmers are seriously looking at other crops and nutmeg seems to be attracting them the most. Nutmeg exports in 2013-14 went up 38% in volumes to touch 4,450 tonne. The value increased 16% to Rs 263 crore. The export crossed 4,000 tonne for the fi rst time be-cause of a shortage in Indonesia, a major producer. But this year, Indonesia has recouped the production. (Sources:

Economic Times)

MP soybean braces up to tackle low de-mand, high taxSoybean industry in Madhya Pradesh is facing tough time this year amid low soymeal export demand and high taxation by the state government, feel industry players. Madhya Pradesh accounts for more than 70% of the country’s soybean production and the state hous-es most major crushers of the country.

Soymeal export demand is low as Indian prices are around $50-55 a tonne higher than its competitors in the international market. Also, bumper crop in Brazil, Argentina and the United States of America (USA) have diverted buyers to these countries due to price advantage. The Madhya Pradesh government imposed 1% tax on soymeal or de-oiled cake in the state Bud-get. Neighboring state like Maharashtra has no tax on soymeal or de-oiled cake and hence, the tax imposed will make units in MP uncompetitive.

Most industry players feel the taxation and demand scenario is hurting the industry in the state and its effects will continue in the coming years too. (Sources: Business Standard)

China cuts rates again in face of weak de-mand, defl ation riskChina’s central bank cut interest rates on Feb 28, 2015, just days before the annual meeting of the country’s parliament, in the latest effort to support the world’s second-largest economy as its momen-tum slows and defl ation risks rise. In its last round of rate cuts in November, the PBOC reduced one-year benchmark lending rates by 40 basis points to 5.6% and lowered one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 bps to 2.75%.

The central bank said the 25 bps cut in the benchmark interest rate to 5.35% - its second cut in just over three months - and a 25 bps cut in the benchmark saving rate


News Digest

to 2.5% would be effective from March 1, 2015. The move came four weeks after the bank had lowered the level of cash banks must set aside as reserves, known as the reserve requirement ratio or RRR, leading some to believe the PBOC was growing increasingly worried about defl ationary risk. (Source: www.Reuters.com)

China’s disinfl ation eased in February on holiday spendingChina’s consumer prices rose faster than economists forecast in February after the central bank stepped up policy easing and the Lunar New Year holiday pushed up food and transport costs. The consumer-price index climbed 1.4% from a year earlier, compared with the median projection for a 1% increase in a survey of ana-lysts by Bloomberg News. Producer prices fell 4.8%, extending a record stretch of declines to 36 months, driven by weaker commodity prices.

A sustained pickup in consumer infl ation would sug-gest companies are regaining some pricing power after the People’s Bank of China cut benchmark borrowing costs twice since November and pared banks’ reserve requirements last month. It may be too early to con-clude defl ation risks have abated as the Lunar New

Year holiday, which fell in February, raised prices as families spent on feasts and travel in their once-a-year binge. (Source: Bloomberg)

China’s scrap copper imports seen linger-ing near 10-year lowChina’s imports of scrap copper, the feedstock for one-third of the country’s production of the metal, are un-likely to rebound from a 10-year low as US supplies remain tight, according to the world’s largest listed metals and electronics recycler.

Scrap copper imports by the country, which accounts for about half the world’s copper consumption, fell to the least since 2004 last year as the economy expanded at the slowest pace since 1990. Scrap metal is the feed-stock for about one third of China’s copper production, CLSA Ltd. estimates.

As per customs data from China, scrap copper im-ports fell 16% to 306,466 metric tons in January from the previous month after sliding 11% from 2013 to 3.9 million tons last year. The tight scrap supply has boost-ed smelter demand for copper concentrate, the raw material used to make refi ned metal, and downstream demand for copper cathode. (Source: Bloomberg)

Please read the Disclaimer carefully on page 4

Budget And Commodities— Tapan Trivedi

Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, came out with the fi scal budget 2015-16 recently wherein he projected a roadmap for fi scal prudence

and economic growth. There were some positive takeaways for the retail and corporate sectors. Major headlines for retail included measures to enhance savings for the individuals by raising internal limits in tax exemptions mainly pertaining to health insurance, pension and transportation allowance among others whereas for the corporate, taxes are to be gradually pruned to 25% from the current 30% in the next four years was a major boost. Alongside, there were some new initiatives such as policies and schemes to be offered so as to monetise gold holdings in the country and also plans to launch sovereign bond and Indian-made gold coins to reduce dependence on gold imports. There were some draggers too such as no raise in personal income tax limit as being expected by the markets, unexpected increase in service tax and education cess from 12.36% to 14% wherein education cess and secondary and higher education cess is withdrawn. Additionally, the FM

has also proposed to impose a Swachh Bharat cess on all taxable services at the rate of 2% on the value of such services for Swachh Bharat initiatives which would eventually increase the service tax rate to 16% in future. This is likely to increase the burden on the service sector and indirectly on consumers while the much awaited goods and services tax GST was pushed for implementation by April 2016.

FM’s proposal for merger of FMC with SEBI For the commodity market segment, one of the ma-jor takeaways from the budget related to the planned merger of the commodity watchdog Forward Markets Commission (FMC) with capital market regulator SEBI. The Finance Minister commented that merger of the two agencies would help streamline the monitor-ing of commodity futures trading and curb speculation. The Finance Minister while presenting the Finance Bill 2015 alongside the Fiscal budget laid down the road-map for the merger of FMC and SEBI by annulling the FCRA 1925 (Forward Contracts Regulation Act) under which the FMC was set up. Additionally, the bill called

PERSPECTIVE



While the government in November 2014 abolished the so called 80:20 rule easing the supply crunch in the country to a moderate extent, Jewellers were ex-pecting a good cut in import duty which continued at 10% levels. On the same lines, if we check the physi-cal market premiums for Gold in India as compared to its international markets in USD terms, premiums moved down sharply towards negative $20 prior to the budget on expectations that ease in action from government would enhance supply. The All India Gems and Jewellery Federation had asked duty to be cut to 2% levels from 10% currently.

Gold exchanges contracts at the MCX traded Gold is measured after calculating the conversion of dollars into rupees, import duty along with other surcharged taxes, but excluding VAT or surcharge on sales tax, local taxes and OCTROI. The GOLD NCDEX Hedge is calculated based on simple conversion from dollar to rupee and ounce into grams excluding any taxes, be it import duty or others. Hence, the latter trades at a discount to the former. Prior to the budget, we have seen MCX premium over NCDEX Gold narrowing down by around Rs 350-400 making a case that cut over import duty is also priced into the MCX contract

by around 2-4% range. Nevertheless, as FM refrained from cutting the import taxes, the markets witnessed an intense in 1-2% increase in MCX Gold while its premium over NCDEX gold also came back to nor-malised range of around Rs 2400-2500 per 10 Gms.

Maintaining the import taxes at alleviated levels would continue to hamper heavy investment in the commodity whereas for the government, income from taxes would extend as gold after crude oil is one of the major commodities which is imported locally. How-ever, only negative thought that could be derived from the aforementioned policy is that the smuggling of the yellow metal may continue at a higher rate. Rise in import duty from 2% to 10% in a staged manner dur-ing the past two years has indirectly created an alter-native channel for getting gold into India as at 10% taxes for importing, Jewellers need to pay around Rs 2.25-2.5 lakh per Kg as an extra burden; especially select unregulated corporate sometimes look for sav-ing that cost by getting the yellow metal in India by smuggling or other routes. Onto the pricing front for the metal, as the reality of no change in import duty priced-in once again, our markets would start tracking the international markets for movement in future.

PERSPECTIVE

for more powers to be granted to the SEBI under the SCRA (Securities Contracts Regulation Act) of 1956 so as to regulate the commodity market intermediaries. As per the plans of the government, domestic commodity market participants including exchanges and brokers will be given one year to comply with SEBI regulations once FCRA is annulled.

The action was already anticipated by the markets, as the so-called NSEL fi asco in July 2013 deeply dent-ed the image of the commodity markets participants including its regulator to an extent. It was only a mat-ter of timing and the current move should be broadly taken in positive sense as it indirectly would give more teeth to the FMC. The former SEBI whole-time mem-ber, M.S. Sahoo said, “There was a view that the com-modity market was lightly regulated compared with the equities market and the proposed merger would remove all forms of regulatory arbitrage between the two market segments. This also confi rms that the gov-ernment has realised that commodity futures are also fi nancial instruments just like shares.”

The step is backed by the feeling that SEBI, being an extremely tough regulator, might indirectly act as a deterrent against speculators/dubba traders while also leading to the entry of institutional investors in the commodity market. Adding, the merger may fi nally clear the long-standing demands of options trading being introduced in the commodity markets sometime in the future, increasing the depth of the market by leaps and bounds and enhance participation from FII’s and other domestic fi nancial institutions. For traders and investors, it could be seen as good news as it is likely that different asset classes in India, namely stocks, mutual funds, currency derivatives and com-modity derivatives could get stream-lined under one platform. Also it would most likely smoothen the in-vestor grievance mechanism across these asset class-es providing a path for single Know Your Customer (KYC) document. For Brokers working in different sectors that currently are forced to work at arm’s length, may look forward to sharing the operational costs while also paving the way for a merger of stock and commodity brokers.

Looking into the other aspects of the SEBI-FMC merger, market participants are a concerned about the challenges which SEBI might face especially when dealing with physical commodities. In commodities, mainly of agricultural nature, they see a lot of physi-cal buying-selling, something untouched by SEBI yet, and may require major study.

FM’s directives for the Bullion, especially Gold and its impact on trading and investment

The FM kept the Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) untouched and provided no major relief to the Gold Jewellers association in the country. Jewellery sector especially catering to Gold and Silver was demanding a cut in import duty to the tune of 2-4% from the budget.

Note that GoI along with the RBI took unprecedent-ed measures to curb the consumption of gold com-modity in July 2013 and up till early 2014 so as to curb the import demand for gold; almost 90% of the metal is imported. The two bodies put restrictions on gold imports so as to check the increasing CAD prob-lem at that time and protect the fall in Rupee against the USD. The GoI hiked gold import duty to 10% in a phased manner while separately also pressed the 80:20 rule wherein importers need to compulsorily export at least 20% of their infl ows. The 80:20 rule sharply dented gold consumption from local jewellers and re-lated organisations in the country while higher import taxes made local pieces costlier. While demand in the local physical markets reduced moderately, acute drop in imports for the commodity created infl ated supply crunch and pushed physical as well as futures market premiums higher. The same aspect can be refl ected on the MCX Gold markets wherein Jul 2013 to Jul 2014 saw Gold MCX moving into deep backwardation.

PERSPECTIVE


COVER STORY

pected this surplus to actually turn into a defi cit or more likely to have a balanced demand supply situa-tion just like year 2014.

An expected glut of supply in 2015 along with the tanking oil prices drove the metal downwards. How-ever, production cuts in many Cu mines are raising doubt about the extent of global surplus during this year and could in fact support a market rebound. As per ICSG forecasts, world mine production was ex-pected to grow by around 3% in 2014 to 18.6 million MT and about 7% in 2015.

Refi ned Cu. production is likely to increase by 4% to 23.1 million MT in 2015 while refi ned Cu. demand is expected to grow by a mere 1%, indicating supply glut for 2015. However, the bigger picture highlights certain other issues which could in reality tighten the production levels and evade the expectation of large surplus in the metal. Post the plunge in copper pric-es and for various geological and technical reasons, many large miners like Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Glencore have trimmed their output forecast for the year. Rio Tinto announced a production cut of 0.1 million followed by BHP Billiton which lowered its production forecast by around 0.15 million and Glen-core has lowered production forecast by around 0.05 million. In addition to these cuts, supply is also hin-dered at Chile where due to dry spells, copper mined production could be hampered and Anglo Los Brunce mine could lose around 0.03 million production; BHP Billiton also faced production cut of around 0.06 mil-lion due to the Olympic Dam outage for which repair is likely to continue for six months, thereby tightening copper supply in the near term.

The slump in Copper prices is also likely to affect the scrap supply of the metal which forms an impor-tant source of supply for the recycled metal. As per Reuters poll conducted in October 2014, Copper sur-plus was expected to be in the range of 0.35 million which has now been revised to a mere 94,300 MT. Macquarie has also trimmed its expectation for Cu surplus from 0.3 million to 0.09 million for 2015. Car-dine Bair, a senior commodities economist expects a defi cit of around 30,000 MT for 2015.

The other side of the coin baffl es the positivity brought in due to likely tightness of the supply as U.S. miner Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc agreed to pay Chinese smelters term treatment and refi ning charges (TC/RC) of $107 per tonne or 10.7 cents per pound for copper concentrate shipments in 2015, up from $92 per tonne and 9.2 cents per pound for term

shipments in 2014. The treatment and refi ning charges is the amount paid to the smelters in order to process the ores into a refi ned metal. Based on the supply sta-tus the TC/ RC charges differ, in case of heavy supply expected the TC/RC charges rise as more number of miners would want their metal ores to be processed and therefore the smelters have the ability to demand higher charges in case the supply is more and vice versa. Ad-ditionally, due to such rise in the TC/RC charges, it is likely that the smelters may boost the capacity this year by around 8% or 0.8 million, fl ooding the copper mar-ket. Separately, Indonesia might push back the ban on copper exports due in Jan 2017 if the miners are un-able to setup the domestic smelter capacity by that time frame. Chile’s Coldeco also plans to boost effi ciency of its smelting and refi ning operations and produce 35,000 MT of refi ned Cu at Chuquicamata and Potrerillos smelters. These factors could cap the gains and lead to a more balanced demand supply situation for the metal.

China and Copper: Dwindling domestic demandChina, the world’s second largest economy, has grown at an exponential rate since 2000 pushing the country to become the largest consumer of Copper utilising around 40% of the global refi ned metal. However, the growth pattern has lowered to around 7% in recent times that has in turn affected demand for the metal. As per the trade balance data, China’s imports of Copper ore and concentrate fell for the fi rst time in three months and declined by around 2.4% MoM to 410,000 MT in Jan 2015 compared with an import level of 740,000 MT during 2006. Inbound shipment in Jan fell to 930,000 MT, down by 20% as the smelters increased the pro-cessing fee amid growing global ore supply.

Full year data for 2014 and comparison As per Reuters update, China has introduced a new ex-port tax rebate for some Copper products and increased rebate for other copper products. Ministry of fi nance said that China has introduced rebate of 9% for copper bars, rods, cathodes and increased the rebate from 13% to 17% for copper foils. On one hand the introduction of new rebates could push up the exports of rods and bars as much as 0.1 million a year whereas on the other hand the new rebate would drive up domestic demand for refi ned copper to make products supporting China’s refi ned copper consumption by 6% and would also ease off the pressure on China’s local market from an over-supply of rods after producers expanded capacity to 11.3 million MT.

COVER STORY

Year 2015 started under a dark shadow for Copper wherein the downside potential for the metal seemed to have no fl oor. The

metal declined around 13% in January, struck both fundamentally and on a macroeconomic scale. The sell rally initiated by Chinese hedge funds invested in the commodity was one of the major reasons for the downswing followed by the trimming of the global growth rate heating up the bearishness in market sentiment. Relief came in February and the metal has till date gained around 5.1% covering the losses of the previous month and down by around 8.33% from the beginning of the year. It should be noted that the gains in the metal were limited to February due a week long lunar holiday in China and also concerns that Greece might exit the Eurozone if it was unable to repay its debt within the stipulated time that restricted the metal from moving upwards.

Ballooned surplus vs production cutsA lot has been spoken and anticipated of the expected surplus for Copper during 2015 ranging from 0.45 million to the recent slashed expectation of around 0.100 million MT surplus. Some analysts have ex-

— Sarika Agarwal

Copper: Two Sides Of A Coin

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Dec-14 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jan-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Copper: Price movement



pay for procuring the metal over and above the LME price. Higher premium paid indicates rising demand in the near term and vice versa. The premiums paid by the US Free Market continued to rise for the month of February as well reaching to $144.7 MT from $136.9 in December 2014. However the rise in the premiums from US has been overcome by the decline in the pre-miums from European free markets from $79.3 MT in December 2014 to $46.2 MT during Feb 2015. The de-cline of premium paid by European region is mainly due to suffi cient supply of Copper to the region from China and other neighbouring regions indicating that demand for the metal has been surpassed by the supply or availability of the metal and therefore is likely to maintain its downward pressure on the metal.

Overall, on the fundamental note, the metal continues to show signs of bearishness to remain intact for the medium term. However, the intensity of the bearishness seems to have reduced, yet is negative as the macro and micro factors are likely maintain downward pressure on the metal for the medium term.

Balance Sheet AnalysisOn a cumulative perspective, ICSG projects 2015 mined growth to be around 6.7% to 19.85 million MT along with the world refi ned copper production for 2015 to rise by 4.3% to 23.1 million MT whereas total refi ned copper demand growing by a meagre 1% mark to 22.69 million MT. This is likely to leave the markets with a

surplus situation of around 393,000 MT. The ICSG has also hinted a probable downside bias to global copper demand-supply balance for 2014 and 2015 amid eco-nomic slowdown in the second half of 2014.

However, the current situation for Copper does not appear to be anywhere close to being as large in sur-plus as per the fi gure suggested by ICSG in its former reports.

OutlookUnderstanding the various macro and micro market dy-namics that are likely to rule the Copper market for the near to medium term, we conclude that although immi-nent supply disruptions and forecasted production cuts are anticipated, the overall bearishness in the intrinsic factors like the rising inventories and nearly stagnant demand are likely to cap any major gains in the metal. The fact that the market is an oversupplied situation es-pecially from China and declining premiums especially in Asia and Europe, indicate that the upward movement of the metal is likely to be restricted in the medium term. However, it is likely that the supply of Copper may not be as much as it had been anticipated by ICSG during October 2014 and the Copper market may re-main largely balanced in the medium to long term. Al-though, we recommend selling Copper in the medium term from higher levels, we suggest a close watch on the macro data from China especially about the stimu-lus which could hype the demand for the metal.

COVER STORY

Balance SheetUnits (Million MT) Mine Production Refi ned Production Refi ned Usage

Region 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

Africa 1.94 2.27 1.38 1.57 0.25 0.26

N. America 2.66 2.89 1.84 1.97 2.40 2.47

Latin America 7.69 8.29 3.33 3.35 0.65 0.67

Asean-10 /Oceania 1.76 2.21 1.03 1.13 0.90 0.95

Asia ex Asean/CIS 2.23 2.44 10.39 10.96 13.80 14.04

Asia-CIS 0.57 0.61 0.35 0.37 0.10 0.10

EU 0.85 0.85 2.77 2.80 3.25 3.29

Europe Others 0.92 0.94 1.06 1.09 1.09 0.92

Total Reading 18.63 20.50 22.15 23.22 22.44 22.69

World Refi ned Balance - - - - -0.307 0.393

Earlier importers in the free trade zone in China used to import Copper and other base metals, storing them in bonded warehouses and use it as collateral for cheaper short term loans from foreign banks. However, as per the latest developments from People’s Bank of China (PBOC), companies in Shanghai free trade zone would be allowed freer access to fi nancing from abroad which means a likely cutback on using Copper imports as fi -nancing tool, thereby creating an additional glut situa-tion in the metal as the metal which was once tied up in fi nancing deals would also be available for trade pur-poses. This would maintain a downward pressure on the metal in the medium to long term.

In contrast, we are now witnessing small green shoots in the Chinese economy. Recent data from HSBC man-ufacturing PMI showed an increased from 49.7 in Janu-ary to 50.1 in February; the index reached a four-month high. This return to expansion bodes well for copper, which is often used as a semiconductor in production and is used for both aesthetic and practical purposes in construction. In addition to this factor, China’s SRB announced a purchase of around 0.2 million Copper as its fi rst lot purchase and looking at the slumping prices of the metal, SRB might purchase additional lots of the metal as China’s State Grid plans to boost its invest-ment in grid construction this year to a record 420 bil-lion yuan, up by around 9% from last year. In addition to this, China has lately joined the league of nations that have introduced additional stimulus to revive their economies. China has announced yet another rate cut of around 25 basis points to infuse further liquidity into the market and increase the production levels.

However, the upticks in demand from such activities cannot match the growth rate that was led by the rising property and construction rates at China and the metal is likely to remain affected to certain extent as long as the property rates and construction activities do not re-sume to their once ‘normal self’.

Fundamental AnalysisMoving towards the metal specifi c factors it is impor-tant to understand the impact and relative importance of the inventories and the divergence between the spot and future prices. On a monthly basis, the inventories for Copper at LME have grown around 19% or 46,900 MT whereas cancelled warrants rose by a mere 7000 MT whereas if we look at the rise in the inventory lev-els of copper at LME since the beginning of the year, the rise has been of 118,000 MT or around 67% where-as the cancelled warrants rose by a negligible amount of 5000 MT. This fi gure indicates that despite supply disruptions, the actual utilisation of the metal remains very low in comparison to production levels.

Copper’s backwardation at LME is yet another indi-cator in support of the expected surplus in the metal. On the monthly basis, backwardation for the metal at LME has trickled down to $29.5 MT from $46 whereas on an annual basis the picture looks even more gloomy as the divergence narrows down from $68 to a recent $29.5 MT. This factor indicates that the immediate demand for the metal remains in the lows which dampen the outlook for the metal in the near term.

Another key indicator revealing the near future of the metal is the level of premiums that various countries

COVER STORY

21000

25500

30000

34500

39000

43500

48000

52500

57000

150000

172000

194000

216000

238000

260000

282000

304000

326000

Dec-14 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jan-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Inventories

Cancelled Warrants

Inventories Vs. Cancelled Warrants



of information, not only a deep relation is formed be-tween the customer and company but also loyalty gets enhanced. Same applies to the potential customers as they gain more confi dence because of the transparency.

Through social media marketing, customer service can get enhanced to a totally different level. By pro-viding two-way communication, the customer’s query can be easily and solved in a timely manner. Their valu-able feedback can be taken into consideration for fur-ther enhancing the services. Also social media provides lightening speed with which the information can reach your customers. You can inform your customers about updates and new releases and keep them engaged.

Although social media provides a range of benefi ts, it has its fl ip side. Transparency provided by this chan-nel has to be regularly monitored by marketers as it can sometimes go against too. To indulge in social media marketing one needs commitment, not only it is time intensive but also requires careful handling of critical situations. The image and brand value of a company de-pends on the way in which its social network account is being handled.

Using social media for building strong bonds and ultimately increasing your customer base is a long-term strategy. Consistency and innovations have to be maintained; over a period of time one will be able to reap its benefi ts.

Due to mushrooming of this media, there always re-mains an issue regarding misuse of company’s trade-mark and copyrights. Any company’s brand, logo and other intellectual party is as valuable as its services/products. Being in a virtual world also creates trust is-

sue with customers. It’s not easy for the customer to trust the company with whom they have not been in direct contact. Although most social networking sites have their own privacy policy and guard sensitive in-formation of their users be it customer or a business, sometimes, the privacy of the account holder comes under the scanner. News of accounts hacking is on the rise and therefore safeguarding privacy and security of information is a herculean and critical task.

In nutshell, one can say that social media is a very powerful and important tool for any company. But it should be handled properly with utmost care to lever-age its benefi ts. It takes commitment and dedication as by using this platform, new bonds can be formed with potential customers and the old ones could be further strengthened. It takes time and patience to maintain re-lationships and to enhance customer base.

By using social media, a company can reach directly to the dissatisfi ed customers and clear their doubt about the product and services, and in this way, the company can clear their image immediately and can once again attract their audience. It also helps the company in mak-ing new customers. It would be wise for any business to develop and adopt sustainable social media strategy in order to successfully run the business in this changing environment.

Social media marketing is part of doing business. We, at Karvy Comtrade, have always embraced the new technology making our services more user-friendly and in the future too will continue to do so. Our Knowledge Resource App is one of our small ef-forts in that direction.

FEATUREFEATURE

Social Is The Way Even For Companies— Smita, Priya and Abhilasha Sinha, Managers at Karvy

In today’s fast paced life, time and money have become the most precious assets. People are now living a tight-scheduled life which provides them

with little opportunity to interact with others face-to-face like in the earlier days. Thanks to the IT revolu-tion which has made the world a global village, it has removed not only geographical but also political and traditional boundaries. We have easy access to a pleth-ora of information while remaining confi ned to our own four walls. The newest revolution in this stream is Social Networking application/Social media. Peo-ple can now interact with a larger audience with just a tap of the fi nger. It has become ubiquitous and an in-tegral part of everybody’s life. The social networking platforms provide a virtual arena to people from dif-ferent parts of the world to interact with each other, to express their views, carry out discussions and to share information. The most established social networking sites are Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin and YouTube. Now-a-days, mobile apps are also coming out as use-ful tools which allow persons to connect and meet a particular objective.

The above graph shows that around 50% people visit their account at least once in a month.

It not only has teenagers present on it, but the retired populace too is enjoying its attributes. People aged between 25 years and 50 years are the most active on these platforms.

This gives immense potential for services where one wants to reach out to a mass at the earliest and at a minimum cost. With soaring popularity and access to a large audience, social media has become the foremost choice for various companies to reach out to large cus-tomer bases. Thus, social media marketing is one of the imperative instruments available for a company to make contact with its targeted audience. Social media marketing is basically the use of social media/social networking sites to promote a company and its prod-ucts. It is one of the sub-sets of online marketing and is extensively used by companies these days.

Like other things, social media marketing too has many benefi ts and drawbacks too. The fi rst and fore-most advantage of social media marketing is its neg-ligible cost. It is much cheaper compared with other ways of marketing and promotional activities. Most of the social networking sites are free-to-use even for business purposes. Instead of spending large amount of cash, with little or almost no cost, any company can share information with the large population. The best part of this marketing tool is that you are able to con-nect with your target audience based on your criteria.

Through such channels, when you share persuasive and associated information regarding your product, people who are interested willingly join you or start to follow you, which itself is a great benefi t. The viral nature of this media also helps you by providing not only word of mouth publicity but also each individual associated with you act as a marketer on your behalf.

As the amount of time people spend on these net-working sites have increased, the level of interaction and communication have also greatly increased. By pro-viding a virtual platform for discussion and exchange

Due to its free-of-cost services and easy accessibility, social media has become the new vogue among people across society.



standout year for Indian jewellery, despite government restrictions on gold imports, reinforcing the nation’s affi nity with gold. Meanwhile Chinese gold demand returned to those last seen in 2011-2012 as consumers and investors took time to digest the substantial vol-umes accumulated in 2013.”

“What’s particularly notable about 2014 is that the striking shift in physical gold demand from West to East is now being followed by gold infrastructure develop-ment in Asia. New products and trading platforms were introduced like the Shanghai Gold Exchange Interna-tional Board, the “Gold Send” mobile app in Turkey and the new kilobar contracts in Singapore and Hong Kong - all designed to make gold more accessible to greater numbers of buyers in the East.”

The key fi ndings of the report are as fol-lows:

� Following an exceptional 2013, gold demand stabi-lised in 2014, declining just 4% to 3,924 t.

� Jewellery remains the biggest component of de-mand for gold. Indian demand for jewellery was up

8% to 662 t, the best year of jewellery demand since records began in 1995 and China’s jewellery demand whilst down 33% was still the second best on record.

� There was also strong jewellery demand in the UK and US, driven by improved economic performance, up 18% to 28 t and 9% to 132 t respectively.

� However, overall jewellery demand fell by10% to 2,153 t as China digested the record breaking levels of jewellery accumulated in 2013.

� Annual central bank demand was up 17% to 477 t, the fi fth consecutive year and 16th consecutive quarter that banks were net purchasers of gold.

� Investment was up 2% to 905 t last year, despite a fall of 40% in bar and coin investment to 1,064 t as con-sumers who purchased in 2013 held back from further buying. ETF outfl ows slowed signifi cantly, from 880 t in 2013 to 159 t in 2014.

� Total supply in 2014 was virtually unchanged com-pared to 2013 at 4,278 t. Recycling contracted to a seven year low, down 11% to 1,122 t. This offset the increase in annual mine production, up 2% to a record 3,114 t - a level that we expect will signal a plateau over 2015.

Additional gold demand and supply statis-tics for full year and Q4 2014

� Global demand for jewellery was 2,153 t for the year, down 10% on 2013. Q4 global jewellery demand was 575 t up 1% from Q4 2013.

� Fourth quarter gold demand of 987 t was up 6% ver-sus Q4 2013.

� Investment demand was 905 t up 2% on 2013, with a 40% drop in bar and coin demand to 1,064 t. The quarterly fi gure was up 10% to 198 t.

� ETF outfl ows slowed for the full year from 880 t in 2013 to 159 t in 2014.

� Full year demand in the technology sector was 389 t, down 5% on 2013. Technology for Q4 saw modest declines, totalling 95 t, down 3% year on year.

� Total supply for the year was 4,278 t, virtually un-changed compared to 2013. The quarterly picture saw total supply at 1,091 t, down 2% on Q4 2013.

� Net central bank purchases totalled 119 t for Q4 up 40% on Q4 2013.

The Full Year 2014 Gold Demand Trends report can be viewed at http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends

BY INVITE

2014 saw a stabilisation of the gold market as it pulled back from the extremes of 2013, according to the latest Gold Demand Trends full year report

from the World Gold Council. Annual gold demand was 3,924 tonnes, 4% lower than 2013. The year ended strongly, with gold demand in Q4 2014 up 6% year on year to 987 t, driven by demand for jewellery and central bank buying.

Jewellery remains the biggest source of demand for gold. Total jewellery demand for the year was 2,153 t, down 10% compared with the previous year, which is not surprising given the price-driven jewellery demand surge in 2013. India – one of the two largest gold mar-kets in the world – had its strongest year for jewellery demand since the World Gold Council’s records began in 1995, up 8% on a year ago to 662 t. This was driven by wedding and festival buying despite the presence of government restrictions on gold imports for most of the year. Although China saw demand decline 33% year on year, it still represents the second best year for jewel-lery demand in China since 1995.

Investment demand, the other big driver of the gold

market, was up 2% in 2014, from 885 t in 2013 to 905 t last year. Total bar and coin investment was down 40% as investors who had made major purchases in 2013 held back from further purchases. This was offset by a dramatic slowdown in outfl ows from exchange traded funds (ETFs), from 880 t in 2013 to 159 t in 2014.

Central banks continued to see the value of gold as a reserve asset in 2014. Annual central bank demand was up 17% to 477 t. This was particularly evident in the last quarter of 2014, when demand was up 40% year on year to 119 t, making Q4 2014 the 16th consecutive quarter and 2014, the fi fth consecutive year that central banks were net purchasers of gold.

Total supply in 2014 was virtually unchanged com-pared to 2013 at 4,278 t, as recycling contracted to a seven year low, offsetting annual mine production growth, which was up 2% to a record 3,114 t.

Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment Strat-egy at the World Gold Council commented, “2014 was a year of stabilisation and innovation in the gold mar-ket, with annual gold demand down by just 4% after the record-breaking level of buying seen in 2013. It was a

Gleaming Gold — MMR Bureau

BY INVITE


Strategy

Buy 50% of investmentat 8150-8100 and remaining at 7500-7600

Target Price Rs 9960 and Rs 11500Stop loss below Rs 7000.


ExportOther aspects of looking at the market would be the export de-mand. India is the major supplier of turmeric in the global mar-ket. Other major producers are China, Myanmar, Nigeria and Bangladesh. Export of turmeric from India during 2012-2013 is an all time high in terms of quantity. The major buyers for Indian turmeric are UAE, Malaysia, Japan and USA. Domes-tic consumption has always been higher than the exports. The export destinations from India which had enough stocks with them to use until last year, might show some interest in buying for fresh consumption.

OutlookLooking at the above scenario, we believe Turmeric prices will remain in the upside in the near term. Good domestic demand ahead of the upcoming festive season is likely to support the prices in the short term. From the above mentioned analysis, we understand that a continuous decline in production consecutively for the past three years might create space to generate its own intrinsic demand that might help the commodity to trade higher amid higher carry forward stocks. Exporters are waiting for fresh export inquires to hit the market in the coming weeks as India is the sole exporter of turmeric in the world.

Prices at the spot market are trading in the range of Rs

(Note: Above call is also applicable for far month contracts(May, June, July). While initiating the long positions kindly addpremium of Rs 100-120 at entry and exit levels since far month

contracts are trading with a premium of Rs 100-120.)

8200-8400 per quintal for Fingur variety and Rs 7400-7500 per quintal for Gattah variety. Lower production for the current year might support turmeric prices to move up in short to medium term.

Technical AnalysisAs on March 2, 2015 Turmeric April delivery futures at the NCDEX platform are trading around Rs 8400 per quintal. The next active contracts May, June and July are available with a premium of Rs 100-120. Based on the below discussed technical study, we are anticipating TMC futures to extend gains up to 9960 then 11500 in the near to medium term.

Prices are trading above the monthly and weekly 8, 13 and 21 exponential moving aver-ages, moving average’s bullish crossover 13/8 EMA had occurred. In the month of Decem-ber, 2014 TMC futures prices had broken the long term consolidation phase resistance levels at 7600; thereafter it had made a high of 9680 in the month of January, 2015. In the above mentioned price chart it is visible that prices are moving higher along with trend channel supports and resistance levels, at present it is providing resistance at 11070 levels. The monthly momentum indicator RSI-14 is tread-ing at 0.620, it has a potential to move higher up to 0.700 in the near term. By combining above technical factors we are anticipating TMC futures to move higher up to 9960 then 11500 levels which are the Fibonacci 50% and 61.8% resistance levels of the 16570-3358 re-spectively. Lower side consolidation break out point 7600 may act as immediate support lev-els and the 21 EMA support levels 7000 might be act as major support levels.

— Sonali Patnaik

SPECIAL FEATURE

Turmeric prices have surged around 40% in a span of three month from December 2014 track-ing bullish fundamental factors such as emer-

gence of winter season demand from the North Indian traders and exporters in December. From Rs 6400 per quintal, prices soared to a high of Rs 9600 per quin-tal in December and subsequently have declined a bit following increased supplies from the farmers as they offl oaded their old stocks ahead of harvesting season of new crop in January.

Turmeric prices have since been bearish through the month. We have seen the spot prices falling from the level of Rs 8000 to Rs 6800 per quintal. Futures market followed the trend seen in the spot market, hence, the futures prices declined from the level Rs 9600 to Rs 8072 per quintal. Fresh arrivals along with huge carryover stocks from the previous year kept the prices under pressure during January. The turmeric production for the year 2014-15 is estimated at 4.12 lakh tonne and carry forward stocks are estimated at 3.12 lakh tonne thus marking total supplies of 7.24 lakh tonne. Lackluster demand from the domestic and overseas markets at higher price levels also pres-surised turmeric prices. However, in February, prices saw a small recovery on reports of export demand from North India. Traders received good orders from North Indian buyers, which resulted in heavy buying from traders to fulfi ll their commitments. Demand for fresh crop came in higher which further supported the uptrend. Despite some intermittent corrections, posi-tive trend remained intact.

Price Seasonality IndexAs per price seasonality index, turmeric prices re-mained under pressure January to February 2014 as fresh crop arrivals hit the market. Starting March, pric-es recovered following emergence of fresh crop buying from local masala buyers and stockiest. July to August, prices moved higher with the end of the arrivals season and improved domestic demand ahead of the festive season. With the peak sowing season over, prices re-sumed their downtrend during September and October. However, strong festive season demand at the domes-

tic and export fronts supported a recovery in the prices from the losses in November-December.

Domestic Area and ProductionIndia is the largest producer and exporter of turmeric in the world. On an average, India produces 45 to 55 lakh bags of turmeric per annum (1 bag=70Kg). As per the latest data by the Government and from secondary sources, acreage for Turmeric in 2014-2015 in India has declined sharply. As of January 2015, estimated crop production is around 4,12,000 tonne, down by 2% from previous year production. The actual fi gures would be revealed by end of March.

As per our crop survey, we have estimated the pro-duction number of 2014-2015 to be around 4, 12,000 tonne which itself is lower from the last two year’s average production. Main reason for decreased in pro-duction is lower acreage. Due to lower returns during 2013-2014, the farmers put less area under turmeric sowing. Exports have declined marginally in last three years. However, the estimated carry forward stocks are likely to be around 3, 35,000 tonne. Hence, the total supply in the year 2014-2015 is expected to be around 7,24,000 tonne which is much higher than the yearly consumption. As we understand the commodity’s local consumption have been steady while the exports are also lower so we could see the net consumption would be more than 3,89,000 to 4,00,000.

Sunshine For Turmeric

SPECIAL FEATURE


ALUMINIUM

minum body, and is opening up its use elsewhere.The F-150 is the largest production ever of an al-

uminium-bodied vehicle, with the metal previously found mostly on luxury cars such as Jaguars. Replac-ing steel with aluminium means the pickup achieves as much as 26 miles (42 kilometers) per gallon on the highway, a 29% improvement from the older model. The F-series line is the nation’s top-selling vehicle and accounts for about 90% of Dearborn—Michigan-based Ford’s global automotive profi ts, Morgan Stan-ley has estimated.

As auto use increases, US consumption of the metal will rise about 7% in 2015 from 2014 to 5.38 million tonne, the highest since 2006, according to Morgan Stanley. Ford’s move to go with the light-weight met-al that helps to improve fuel mileage is a “line in the sand” for carmakers, Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at AutoTrader.com, said after the F-150 took the North American Truck of the Year award.

Similarly, Honda Motor Co. is also using more of the lightweight metal to improve fuel mileage. As more carmakers follow suit, there will be a “tectonic shift” in demand from the auto industry for the metal, accord-ing to Sean Stack, executive vice president and head of North America rolled products at Aleris Corp., a US aluminum producer.

The continued decline in global oil prices appeal

of shifting from cheaper steel to aluminium due to lower gasoline costs mean consumers get less benefi t from fuel effi ciency. Average US gasoline prices fell to $2.033 a gallon on Jan. 25, the lowest since March 2009 while crude futures in New York plunged 53% in the past year.

“There’s going to be less pressure to put aluminium on vehicles if oil prices stay lower because current lower prices of gas will reduce pressure by customers,” Kevin Moore, president of All Raw Materials Consult-ing in Clarkston, Michigan, said. “The real decider of vehicle purchase is the consumer.”

Even as gasoline costs drop, fuel mileage will remain a goal for carmakers. In September, President Barack Obama urged world leaders at a United Nations summit to reach a global agreement to combat climate change. The administration worked with automakers to agree on fuel-effi ciency standards that will require an average of 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light trucks in the US by 2025. Morgan Stanley estimates US aluminium demand will jump 28% by 2020 as carmakers continue the push to make lighter vehicles.

“It’s only a matter of time until other auto companies move to light-weighting with aluminium,” Silverio Co-lalancia, recycling director at Novelis North America, said. “Everybody’s got binoculars, and they’re watch-ing the F-150.”


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— Pramod Shinde, MMR Bureau

The global metal commodity market is passing through a slowdown phase but aluminum is likely to stage a comeback as automakers are

under pressure to build more fuel-effi cient cars thereby increasing the use of this light-weight metal. Continued volatile fuel prices in the past fi ve years had been forc-ing auto companies to reduce car fuel consumption, the solution to which can be only through change over to a light weight concept as per various studies conducted by automotive companies.

Based on this innovative concept, global aluminium giants like Alcoa Inc. and Rio Tinto Group expect demand to rise over the next few years as the metal grows in importance. Rusal expects consumption from automakers to rise 65% to 23 million metric tonne by 2020 as announced by Steve Hodgson, Di-rector of Sales and Marketing.

Aluminum has long been used in car doors and roofs, but unlike steel, it’s diffi cult to weld, limiting its us-age in other automobile parts. Innovative research and breakthroughs in welding technology has actually helped the aluminium industry. The new stamping pro-cesses have enabled automakers to produce aluminum body parts that meet stringent specifi cations. They can also make them in intricate shapes. Consequently, the demand for aluminium auto sheets in North America

will almost quadruple to 1.78 million tonne in the de-cade through 2025, according to Alcoa, the largest US-based producer. Increasing orders from airplanes are also boosting consumption.

As per the European Aluminium Association latest data indicates that in Europe new cars already con-tain an average of 309 pounds (140 kilograms) of al-uminium each and transport accounts for 40% of the use of the metal. The region’s third-largest producer, Norsk Hydro ASA, working with customers includ-ing Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz unit, has succeeded in manufacturing a large side panel in one piece, reducing the welding requirements and cutting assembly costs. “Producing side panels in one-piece aluminium was a dream for the auto industry, and now we are increasing production to meet rising demand,” Hydro’s Chief Ex-ecutive Offi cer Svein Richard Brandtzaeg said.

As per the recent development, Ford Motor Co.’s strategic move towards light-weight metal would help to pull aluminium metal from the bear market affl ict-ing most commodities by adding to an increase in in-dustrial use. The company is hiring workers to expand production of its F-150 pickup after a switch to an alu-minium body helped spur demand that has exceeded the company’s plans. The auto company produces its top-selling vehicle, the F-150 pickup truck, with an alu-

Lightweight Cars in Vogue; Spur Aluminum Demand

ALUMINIUM


— Sonali Patnaik and Sujal Shah

COMMODITY OF THE MONTH

In the benchmark market of UP, mentha oil prices surged around 9% from Rs 747 to Rs 814 per Kg over the past three weeks. The main reason behind

the rise in mentha oil prices was late sowing. The slow pace of sowing activities is indirectly creating tightness from the supply side and thereby has led to consump-tion of carryover stocks due to which the price of the commodity has surged to this extent. Along with this, as per market sources, production of mentha oil is like-ly to decline in the next crop season which has provided additional support to the rise in the price levels of the commodity.

We understand that as the farmers continue to remain reluctant to sell their produce which has led to the de-cline in the arrivals, the domestic stockiest are refrain-ing from further selling the produce in anticipation of remunerative gains in the near future.

Mentha crop output in India is estimated to be lower by 20-25% to 35,000 to 40,000 tonne for 2014-2015 compared with 55,000 tonne last year. So far the weath-er conditions have been favorable for crop development in the major mentha growing regions in UP. According to trade sources, acreage under mentha is expected to decline by 20-25% to 1.75 lakh ha compared to last year’s acreage of 2.10 lakh ha. However, if production declines in line with our expectations, the carryover stocks will protect the markets from a supply crunch. Nevertheless, this might lead to a surge in mentha oil prices in the short-term. Overall, in the near term, we expect Mentha prices to move on a bullish trend.

Technical analysisThe price trend of Mentha was channeling down as

shown in the fi gure below. After making fi ve reversals in the channel, it breached its upper boundary line at 781 zones with a breakaway gap. The breakaway gap was associated with decent volume beneath, thus indi-cates a legitimate breakout.

In the daily chart the price, we see a consolidation pattern –symmetrical triangle. Its upper boundary line is a part of multi-month channel. This consolidated tri-angle pattern aims a target of 830.

RSI (14) is reading at 70 and price is trading well above 50 week SMA – indicates a bullish trend.

Mentha: Hopes Rife Of Remunerative Gains

Recommendation

Buy at Rs 775-780Target Rs 970

Stop loss below Rs 680


International Commodities Monthly Supports And Resistance

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 Close R1 R2 R3 Direction Recommendation/Range

BULLION

Gold Comex Apr-15 1136 1162 1217 1279 1321 1359 1396 Down Sell at 1185 TP 1122 SL 1240

Silver Comex Mar-14 14.37 15.02 16.05 17.21 18.26 19.21 19.91 Down Sell at 16.10 TP 14.80 SL 17.50

METALS

Copper Comex Mar-15 2.149 2.261 2.373 2.495 2.684 2.852 2.930 Down Sell at 2.7541 TP 2.6/2.45 SL 2.857

Copper LME 3M Fwd 4711 4969 5221 5494 5931 6319 6495 Down Sell at 6000 TP 5700/5450 SL 6300

Lead LME 3M Fwd 1687 1723 1787 1859 1916 1968 2011 Down Buy at 1800 TP 1840/1900 SL 1730

Zinc LME 3M Fwd 1924 1970 2041 2120 2194 2261 2309 Down Sell at 2065 TP 1920 SL 2200

Nickel LME 3M Fwd 13448 13792 14442 15170 15718 16218 16652 Up Sell at 14450 TP 13500 SL 14700

Aluminum LME 3M Fwd 1727 1752 1803 1860 1898 1934 1968 Up Trading Range: 1760-1860

ENERGY

Crude Nymex Mar-15 37.64 40.48 44.17 48.24 52.96 57.19 59.71 Sideways Trading Range: 47-52.55

Natural Gas Nymex Mar-15 2.171 2.354 2.516 2.691 3.004 3.282 3.396 Down Sell at 2.85 TP 2.5/2.4 SL 3

EDIBLE OILS

Soybean CBOT Mar-15 878 908 933 961 1012 1058 1076 Sideways Trading Range: 965-1050

Soy Oil CBOT Mar-15 26.22 27.48 28.69 30.00 32.14 34.04 34.88 Sideways Buy at 30.90 TP 35.60/36 SL 28

CPO BMD Mar-15 2039 2080 2167 2266 2330 2389 2448 Sideways Sell at 2350 TP 2160/2000 SL 2480

Corn CBOT Mar-15 335 352 358 370 391 409 416 Down Sell at 385 TP 322 SL 425

Wheat Mar-15 420 460 475 503 554 599 617 Down Buy at 470-460 TP 630 SL 400

Cotton Ice Mar-15 55.41 56.74 57.76 59.36 60.85 62.21 63.18 Down Buy at 62 TP 78 SL 56

Sugar Mar-15 15.00 15.15 15.30 15.49 15.80 16.05 16.30 Down Sell at 14 TP 11 SL 16



Domestic Commodities Monthly Supports And ResistanceCommodity Contract S3 S2 S1 Close R1 R2 R3 Direction Recommendation/Range

BULLION

Gold MCX Apr-15 26035 26398 27047 27772 28355 28886 29320 Down Trading Range: 25000-28300

Gold Hedge Mar-14 24100 24460 24800 25608 25900 26330 26750 Down Trading Range: 24500-23750

Silver MCX Mar-15 33600 34702 36315 38105 39912 41540 42632 Down Sell at 36800 TP 33200 SL 38500

METALS

Copper MCX Apr-15 292.3 310.6 328.1 347.1 378.2 405.9 418.2 Down Trading Range: 388-330

Lead MCX Mar-15 109 111 113 117 119 122 124 Down Trading Range: 104-120

Zinc MCX Mar-15 120 123 128 133 138 143 146 Down Sell at 130 TP 120 SL 135

Nickel MCX Mar-15 861 879 912 950 979 1005 1028 Up Sell at 900 TP 825 SL 930

Aluminium MCX Mar-15 111 112 114 116 118 119 121 Up Trading Range: 117-110

ENERGY

Crude Oil MCX Mar-15 2318 2517 2713 2927 3264 3563 3700 Sideways Buy at 3200 TP 3400/3600 SL 2970

Natural Gas MCX Mar-15 142 151 160 170 187 202 208 Down Sell at 185-188 TP 153/142 SL 210

EDIBLE OILS

Soybean NCDEX Apr-15 3160 3234 3329 3434 3556 3665 3730 Down Sell at 3345 TP 3140 SL 3460

Soy Oil NCDEX Apr-15 526 545 563 583 616 645 658 Down Sell at 610 TP 520/470 SL 680

RM Seed NCDEX Apr-15 3073 3162 3250 3345 3497 3631 3692 Down Sell at 3470 TP 3040 SL 3500

CPO MCX Mar-15 384 401 418 436 465 490 502 Down Sell at 465 TP 420 SL 480

Castor seed NCDEX Mar-15 3669 3833 4011 4205 4482 4728 4851 Down Sell at 3660 TP 3300 SL 3740

SPICES

Dhaniya NCDEX Apr-15 6533 6834 7307 7833 8323 8765 9084 Down Sell at 7000 TP 5100/4800 SL 7800

Turmeric NCDEX Apr-15 6435 6960 7472 8028 8919 9711 10068 Down Trading Range 9100-8200

Jeera NCDEX Mar-15 12584 13380 14027 14720 16087 17295 17755 Down Sell at 14700 TP 1260 SL 15520

Cardamom MCX Mar-15 993 1028 1076 1129 1187 1239 1271 Up Sell at 1164-1160 TP 800 SL 1270

OTHERS

Chana NCDEX Apr-15 3287 3355 3453 3562 3674 3775 3842 Up Trading Range:3800-3400

Mentha Oil MCX Feb-15 680 700 720 743 780 815 835 Up Buy at 770-765 TP 830 SL 730

Wheat NCDEX Feb-15 1559 1582 1609 1640 1677 1710 1729 Sideways Sell at 1660 TP 1450 SL 1750

Sugar NCDEX Mar-15 2637 2660 2690 2723 2761 2794 2815 Sideways Sell at 2950 TP 2500 SL 3120



Risk identifi cation and assessment(A) Risk identifi cationRisk and control self-assessment (RCSA) process: Risk identifi cation and assessment together with con-trol assessment are keys to the risk management pro-cess. Regulators, Board of Directors, shareholders, require that the Bank consistently and periodically identifi es, assesses and monitors its key operational risks in achieving its objectives. The objectives of the RCSA process are as follows:

� Early detection of unidentifi ed, uncontrolled and/ or underestimated risks

� Assess the acceptability level of identifi ed risks and controls

� Evaluation of effectiveness of controls � Identify material changes in the risk profi le � Establish a relationship between changes in the

business environment and controls with the risk profi le � Involve the business groups / support groups (IT,

Legal, Human Resources) in their risk assessment, thereby creating responsibility from respective manage-ment to proactively manage and monitor its operational risks, framing and implementation of mitigation plans.The common RCSA framework captures the specifi cs of the business, while retaining a certain level of uni-formity where possible and desired.(B) Risk assessmentThe risks and existing controls identifi ed in the identifi -cation phase of the RCSA is required to be assessed in detail, to determine the level of acceptability or unac-ceptability, by measuring their probability and impact. From the bottom-left corner up to the top-right corner, the impact/ probability of risks gradually increase. The goal of operational risk management is essentially to bring high probability/ high impact risks down to the bottom-left corner as much as possible by reducing the risks or by implementing adequate controls.

Risk monitoring and risk measurement(A) Key risk indicators (KRI)KRIs are statistics and/ or metrics, often fi nancial, which can provide insight into the organization’s risk position. Reviewed on a periodic basis (quarterly), KRIs can alert the organization to changes that may be indicative of risk concerns. Such indicators may include the number of failed trades, staff turnover rates and the frequency and/ or severity of errors and omissions.

Normally, the inputs for KRIs comprise internal loss data, near misses data, RCSA results, past experience and intuition of OR manager.

KRI is one of key component to support risk assess-ment and risk monitoring measures. KRI provide early warning on the severity of risk factor to the manage-ment. KRI will be established for each identifi ed key risks in BUs/SGs in accordance with KRI procedure.

(B) Risk MeasurementLoss data and incident management [LDM]Its objectives are as follows:

� Timely and immediate reporting of incident � Preventing recurrence of similar loss events, by

identifying control weakness and initiating root cause analysis

� Complying with the regulatory requirements � Meeting the loss data collection standard � Facilitating the calculation of regulatory capital � Providing a transparent and uniform framework for

LDM.Advantage of structural incident reporting

� Improved risk management � Increasing risk awareness and mitigation capability

by improving the insight in the costs of operational risk � Better incident response � Risk sensitive regulatory capital � Compliance to regulatory requirements.

Risk MitigationThe following measures/ tools shall be used to control and mitigate the operational risks:

� Internal controls and systems; � Placement and rotation of staff; � Risk focused internal audit; � Fraud monitoring; � Disciplinary proceedings system; � Training; � Insurance; � Business continuity management (BCM); � IT security; � Outsourcing; � Physical security; � Approval of new products and changes in existing

products and services; � Best practices

*The views expressed in this article are personal in nature and for information purpose only.


CLASSROOM

— Alok Kumar Sinha, Chief Manager, SBI

CLASSROOM

Deregulation and globalisation of fi nancial services, together with the phenomenal increase in the complexity and volume of

fi nancial transactions, high degree of structural changes and complex technological support systems are making the activities of fi nancial sectors more complex. Recent regulations, industry trends, new types of threats and exposures and a growing number of high profi le operational losses have underscored the importance of operational risk management as a comprehensive discipline.

Defi nitionOperational risk is ‘the risk of loss resulting from inad-equate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events’.

The defi nition given above is based on the underly-ing causes of operational risk and includes legal risk but excludes strategic and reputation risk. It seeks to identify why a loss happened and at the broadest level classify the cause of the loss event under one of the fol-lowing heads viz. people, process, systems and external factors.

Risk EventsAn operational risk event is defi ned as an incident/

experience that has caused or has the potential to cause material loss to the bank either directly or indirectly with other incidents. Risk events are associated with people, process and technology involved with the prod-uct. All operational loss events may be classifi ed under the following heads:

Internal fraudLosses on account of intentional misreporting of po-sitions, employee theft, and insider trading on an em-ployee’s own account, etc

External fraudLosses on account of robbery, forgery, kite-fl ying, dam-age from computer hacking, etc

Employment practices and workplace safety

Losses on account of workers compensation claims, vi-olation of employee health and safety rules, organised labour activities, discrimination claims, and general li-ability, etc

Clients, products and business practicesLosses on account of fi duciary breaches, misuse of con-fi dential customer information, improper trading activi-ties on the bank’s account, money laundering, sale of unauthorised products, etc

Damage to physical assetsFor example, terrorism, vandalism, earthquakes, fi res and fl oods, etc

Business disruption and system failuresLosses on account of hardware and software failures, telecommunication problems, utility outages, etc

Execution, delivery and process managementLosses due to data entry errors, collateral management failures, incomplete legal documentation, and unau-thorized access given to client accounts, non-client counterparty mis-performance, vendor disputes, etc

Operational risk measurement system (ORMS)ORMS consists of the mathematical and statistical models, technological support systems, data and vali-dation processes used to measure operational risk to estimate the regulatory capital. ORMS comprises of the following:

� Model used to estimate the capital for operational risk,

� Operational risk management solution which will be used to capture, compute and report the operational risk levels to senior management,

� Validation process to validate the model used to compute the capital for operational risk

ORMS would play an integral role in risk manage-ment and decision making processes and it should be independently validated and reviewed on a periodic basis.

Operational Risk Management


STATISTICS

Economic Events In March 2015 (cont’d)

Source: Bloomberg ; EC: European Union; IN: India; US: United States; CH: China; GE: Germany; UK: United Kingdom; JN: Japan

Date Time Region Event Period Survey (M) Prior

03/12/15 15:30 EC Industrial Production SA MoM Jan 0.20% 0.00%

03/12/15 18:00 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Feb 0.30% -0.80%

03/13/15 10:00 JN Industrial Production MoM Jan F -- 4.00%

03/13/15 12:30 GE Wholesale Price Index MoM Feb -- -0.40%

03/13/15 18:00 US PPI Final Demand YoY Feb 0.00% 0.00%

03/13/15 19:30 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar P 95.5 95.4

03/16/15 18:45 US Industrial Production MoM Feb 0.30% 0.20%

03/17/15 15:30 GE ZEW Survey Expectations Mar -- 53

03/17/15 15:30 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Mar -- 52.7

03/17/15 15:30 EC CPI YoY Feb F -- -0.30%

03/17/15 18:00 US Housing Starts Feb 1040K 1065K

03/17/15 18:00 US Building Permits Feb 1065K 1053K

03/17/15 JN Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

03/18/15 05:20 JN Trade Balance Feb -- -Â¥1177.5B

03/19/15 19:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar 8 5.2

03/20/15 12:30 GE PPI YoY Feb -- -2.20%

03/23/15 19:30 US Existing Home Sales Feb -- 4.82M

03/23/15 20:30 EC Consumer Confi dence Mar A -- -6.7

03/24/15 07:15 CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar P -- 50.7

03/24/15 14:00 GE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar P -- 51.1

03/24/15 14:00 GE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Mar P -- 53.8

03/24/15 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P -- 51

03/24/15 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar P -- 53.3

03/24/15 15:00 UK CPI YoY Feb -- 0.30%

03/24/15 18:00 US CPI YoY Feb -- -0.10%

03/24/15 19:30 US New Home Sales Feb -- 481K

03/25/15 14:30 GE IFO Business Climate Mar -- 106.8

03/25/15 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders Feb -- 2.80%

03/26/15 12:30 GE GfK Consumer Confi dence Apr -- 9.7

03/27/15 19:30 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar F -- --

03/27/15-04/03/15 GE Retail Sales MoM Feb -- 2.90%

03/30/15 17:30 GE CPI YoY Mar P -- --

03/31/15 10:30 JN Housing Starts YoY Feb -- -13.00%

03/31/15 13:25 GE Unemployment Rate Mar -- 6.50%

03/31/15 14:00 UK GDP QoQ 4Q F -- 0.50%

STATISTICS

Source: Bloomberg ; EC: European Union; IN: India; US: United States; CH: China; GE: Germany; UK: United Kingdom; JN: Japan

Economic Events In March 2015Date Time Region Event Period Survey (M) Prior

03/01/15 06:30 CH Manufacturing PMI Feb 49.7 49.8

03/01/15 06:30 CH Non-manufacturing PMI Feb -- 53.7

03/02/15 07:15 CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Feb F 50.1 50.1

03/02/15 14:25 GE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb F 50.9 50.9

03/02/15 14:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb F 51.1 51.1

03/02/15 15:00 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Feb 53.3 53

03/02/15 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Jan 11.40% 11.40%

03/02/15 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Feb A 0.60% 0.60%

03/02/15 20:30 US ISM Manufacturing Feb 53 53.5

03/03/15 12:30 GE Retail Sales MoM Jan 0.40% 0.20%

03/03/15 15:30 EC PPI YoY Jan -3.00% -2.70%

03/04/15 07:15 CH HSBC China Services PMI Feb -- 51.8

03/04/15 15:30 EC Retail Sales MoM Jan 0.20% 0.30%

03/04/15 20:30 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Feb 56.5 56.7

03/05/15 12:30 GE Factory Orders MoM Jan -1.00% 4.20%

03/05/15 17:30 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Mar-05 0.50% 0.50%

03/05/15 19:00 US Nonfarm Productivity 4Q F -2.30% -1.80%

03/05/15 20:30 US Factory Orders Jan 0.20% -3.40%

03/06/15 12:30 GE Industrial Production SA MoM Jan 0.50% 0.10%

03/06/15 15:30 EC GDP SA QoQ 4Q P 0.30% 0.30%

03/06/15 19:00 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 235K 257K

03/06/15 19:00 US Unemployment Rate Feb 5.60% 5.70%

03/06/15 19:00 US Trade Balance Jan -$41.1B -$46.6B

03/08/15 07:59 CH Trade Balance CNY Feb 20.00B 366.90B

03/09/15 05:20 JN GDP SA QoQ 4Q F 0.50% 0.60%

03/09/15 12:30 GE Trade Balance Jan 19.5B 19.1B

03/10/15 07:00 CH CPI YoY Feb 1.00% 0.80%

03/10/15 07:00 CH PPI YoY Feb -4.30% -4.30%

03/10/15 19:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan -0.10% 0.10%

03/11/15 05:20 JN Machine Orders MoM Jan -4.00% 8.30%

03/11/15 05:20 JN PPI YoY Feb 0.40% 0.30%

03/11/15 11:00 CH Industrial Production YTD YoY Feb 7.70% --

03/12/15 12:30 GE CPI YoY Feb F 0.10% 0.10%

03/12/15 15:00 UK Trade Balance Jan -Â£2300 -Â£2895


Lead- 6.5%

Gold- 6.0%

Nickel- 5.7%

Silver- 4.5%

Zinc-2.5%

Aluminum- 2.3%

Cardamom, - 1.0%

Natural Gas, 0.9%

Mentha Oil, 4.0%

Cotton 4.5%

Crude Oil 6.3%

Copper 7.7%

Barley- 7.8%

Wheat- 4.6%

Soy Oil- 3.8%

Soybean- 0.9%

Rm Seed 0.4%

Jeera 1.1%

Turmeric 9.3%

February International Commodity Price TrendsJan 30,

2015Feb 27,

2015% Change 52 Week

High% Change from

52 Week High52 Week

Low% Change from

52 Week Low

Nymex Crude Oil (S/bbl) 48.24 49.76 3.15% 107.73 -53.81% 43.58 14.18%

CBOT Soy Oil (cents/lb) 30.00 32.80 9.33% 44.23 -25.84% 29.32 11.87%

ICE Cotton (cents/lb) 59.36 64.73 9.05% 97.35 -33.51% 57.05 13.46%

LME Copper 3 Month ($/t) 5495.00 5895.00 7.28% 7212.00 -18.26% 5339.50 10.40%

LME Zinc 3 Month ($/t) 2125.00 2065.00 -2.82% 2416.00 -14.53% 1937.00 6.61%

Comex Silver (S.oz) 17.21 16.51 -4.04% 21.71 -23.94% 14.10 17.11%

LIFFE Sugar (S/t) 383.40 371.80 -3.03% 495.90 -25.03% 364.20 2.09%

CBOT Soybean (cents/bushel) 961.00 1030.75 7.26% 1536.75 -32.93% 904.00 14.02%

ICE Sugar (cents/lb) 14.79 13.93 -5.81% 18.37 -24.17% 13.18 5.69%

LME Aluminium 3 Month ($/t) 1864.00 1815.00 -2.63% 2119.50 -14.37% 1704.25 6.50%

ICE Coffee (cents/lb) 161.90 136.75 -15.53% 225.50 -39.36% 129.05 5.97%

CBOT Corn (cents/bushel) 370.00 384.50 3.92% 519.50 -25.99% 318.25 20.82%

Comex Gold (S/oz) 1278.50 1213.10 -5.12% 1392.60 -12.89% 1130.40 7.32%

CBOT Soy Meal ($/t) 329.90 353.70 7.21% 509.40 -30.57% 302.00 17.12%

LME Lead 3 Month ($/t) 1859.50 1728.00 -7.07% 2307.00 -25.10% 1725.00 0.17%

LME Nickel 3 Month ($/t) 15165.00 14095.00 -7.06% 21625.00 -34.82% 13610.00 3.56%

Nymex Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 2.69 2.73 1.60% 4.89 -44.04% 2.57 6.51%

CBOT Wheat (cents/bushel) 502.75 517.50 2.93% 735.00 -29.59% 466.25 10.99%

STATISTICS

February Gainers and Losers (M/M%)MCX NCDEX

Karvy Comtrade’s Invest & HarvestMarch 2015

RNI No.APENG/2008/24815

25/- awaiting the dragon - karvy · pdf filekarvy comtrade’s ... 08 issue 02 hyderabad...

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