2.5 mainstem nooksack and portage bay 3459wria1project.whatcomcounty.org/uploads/usu/wria 1 p… ·...

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2.5 Mainstem Nooksack and Portage Bay 3458 3459 2.5.1 Introduction 3460 3461 The main stem of the Nooksack River from the confluence of the Middle and North Forks is 3462 approximately 36 miles in length, running primarily through low-lying agricultural and rural 3463 areas, in addition to the towns of Deming, North Cedarville, Nooksack, Everson, Lynden, 3464 Ferndale, and Brennan. The major tributaries to the main stem include the three forks, Anderson 3465 Creek, Kamm (Stickney) Slough, Scott Creek, Bertrand and Fishtrap Creeks, Tenmile Creek, and 3466 Silver Creek. Human impacts to the main stem are similar to those mentioned for the tributaries 3467 to the main stem; intensive agriculture and dairy operations, and three wastewater treatment 3468 plants that discharge to the main stem. There has also been a large amount of diking along the 3469 length of the river to control flooding. Figure 2.5.1 shows a relief map of the area associated 3470 with the Nooksack River Mainstem. 3471 3472 Portage Bay is located in the northeastern portion of Bellingham Bay and is an important 3473 historical area for shell fishing. Portage Bay is influenced by flow from the Nooksack River, and 3474 as such is included as part of this water quality assessment. 3475 3476

3477 Figure 2.5.1. Relief Map of Mainstem Nooksack River. 3478

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2.5.2 Water Quality Summary 3479 3480 From the historical water quality database currently in hand, water quality appears to be stable 3481 for most parameters. Long-term trends are not apparent, and the quality seen in these data is 3482 consistent with populated watersheds. Elevated levels of nitrogen and phosphorus are typical of 3483 agricultural watersheds, as is the enrichment of fecal coliform bacteria in the valley drainage 3484 between North Cedarville and Brennan. Strong correlations among turbidity and suspended 3485 solids (Appendix J) suggest that large fractions of the suspended solids are colloidal in nature 3486 with likely sources in the glacial tills and fine sediment higher in the watershed. The small 3487 amount of attenuation of suspended solids between North Cedarville and Brennan supports this 3488 assessment. The data reviewed showed that dissolved oxygen and pH in the main stem have 3489 consistently met the Class A criteria, however, the measurements from historical monitoring do 3490 not necessarily or consistently represent the diel variations common in nutrient-laden systems 3491 with build-up of benthic algae, particularly of concern under low flow conditions. 3492 3493 Two segments of the river, just upstream of Bellingham Bay, are currently on the 303(d) list for 3494 fecal coliform bacteria. The TMDL for bacteria in the Lower Nooksack River Basin was 3495 completed in January of 2000 (Joy, 2000). According to the TMDL Evaluation, fecal coliform 3496 bacteria violations were evident at many sites and during all seasons in the historical record, as 3497 well as during the TMDL surveys (Joy, 2000). 3498 3499 Figure 2.5.2 shows all water quality station locations on the main stem that have been identified 3500 by the USU surface water quality team. Figure 2.5.3 shows the water quality station locations in 3501 Portage Bay. Some of the stations have been placed on the map by USU using either site 3502 descriptions or maps from agencies showing sampling sites when exact geographic coordinates 3503 were unavailable. When more precise information is provided to USU, the shape file, and, if 3504 necessary, this water quality assessment will be updated. Tables B-5 and B-7 give more 3505 information on the water quality station locations and the agency that collected the data. Tables 3506 C-5 and C-7 show water quality data summaries for the water quality stations shown in Figures 3507 2.5.2 and 2.5.3. 3508 3509 2.5.2.1 Grouping of Water Quality Stations 3510 3511 In examining Figure 2.5.2 it can be seen that there are many locations that have multiple stations 3512 within a small radius (e.g., the Nooksack River at Marietta has 9 water quality stations located 3513 within approximately 100 meters of each other). USU has grouped stations so that more 3514 information at a specific location is available and a more complete water quality analysis can be 3515 provided. Table 2.5.1 shows which stations have been grouped and the identifier that will be 3516 used (i.e. location) throughout the remainder of the report.3517

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518 Figure 2.5.2. Water Quality Stations on the Mainstem Nooksack River. 519

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520 Figure 2.5.3. Water Quality Stations in Portage Bay.521

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Table 2.5.1. Grouped Stations for Mainstem Nooksack 3522 Location Stations Grouped Description Nooksack River at Marietta USU-9

01TMS1 01TMS1L 01TMS1R P-DOH-M1 DOE-M1 LNR-18 NWIC-M1

?

Nooksack River at Brennan 12213140 USGS-BREN 01A050

?

Nooksack River at Ferndale USU-10 DOE-FERN FERN-STP FERN-INT 01A070 DOE-M2 PUD-FERN NWIC-M2 NOOKRNF 12213095 12213090 12213100 01TMS2 01TMS2L 01TMS2R

?

Nooksack River at River Mile 11.2

DOE-M3 01TMS3 01TMS3L

?

Nooksack River Near Lynden 01A090 01TMS3.5 12211500

Nooksack River at Lynden NWIC-M4 DOE-M4 01A100 01TMS4 01TMS4R 01TMS4L

Nooksack River at Everson DOE-EVER USGSNAWQA-NOOK2 EVER-STP USU-12 NWIC-M5 01TMS5 01TMS5L 01TMS5R

Nooksack River at North Cedarville

NWIC-M6 01A120 USGS-NCED 12210700 DOE-M6 01TMS6 01TMS6R 01TMS6L

Nooksack River at Deming 12210500 USGSNAWQA-NOOK1

3523

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2.5.3 Stream Designation 3523 3524 According to Water Quality Standards for Surface Waters of the State of Washington (WDOE, 3525 1997b), the entire length of the main stem from the confluence of the South Fork to Bellingham 3526 Bay is designated Class A (Excellent). Portage Bay is also designated Class A. 3527 3528 2.5.4 Water Quality Impairments 3529 3530 The principle water quality concern in the Nooksack River Mainstem and Portage Bay is fecal 3531 coliform bacteria, although elevated concentrations of nutrients and suspended solids consistent 3532 with an agricultural watershed have also been observed. There are currently two 303(d) listed 3533 segments for fecal coliform bacteria at the lower end of the river near Bellingham Bay. These 3534 listings are based on data collected by the WDOE and LNR. 3535 3536 Figure 2.5.4 shows the location of the 303(d) listed segments in the Nooksack River main stem, 3537 and Figure 2.5.5 shows the 303(d) listings in the Bellingham Bay area. Using the information 3538 gathered by the USU surface water quality team, an independent analysis of the data in these 3539 303(d) listed segments is offered in the following sections. An assessment of data in Portage 3540 Bay is also included. 3541

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542 Figure 2.5.4. Mainstem Nooksack River 303(d) Listed Segments. 543

161

544 Figure 2.5.5. 303(d) Listed Waterbodies in Bellingham Bay. 545

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2.5.4.1 Water Quality Analysis for Listed Segments 3546 3547 Nooksack River Mainstem (WA-01-1010) 3548 Two segments of the Nooksack River are on the 1998 303(d) list for fecal coliform bacteria. The 3549 first segment, located at river mile 1.5, is listed based on data collected by LNR that show 22 3550 excursions beyond the upper criterion between 1988 and 1990 (Cochran, 1990) that were 3551 reviewed graphically from the LNR report. These data are not currently in the WRIA 1 Surface 3552 Water Quality Database because numerical data have not been located. The second segment, 3553 located at river mile 3.4, is listed based on data collected by the WDOE documenting 6 3554 excursions beyond the upper criterion out of 33 samples (18%) at WDOE ambient monitoring 3555 station 01A050 between 9/91 and 9/96. 3556 3557 Although the data for which the most downstream segment (river mile 1.5) was listed are not in 3558 the database, more recent data support the 303(d) listing of this river segment. Figure 2.5.6 3559 shows both a time series and a probability plot of fecal coliform bacteria data collected by the 3560 WDOE and NWIC for the Nooksack River at Marietta (near river mile 1.5). The top panel of 3561 Figure 2.5.6 shows that fecal coliform bacteria fluctuate throughout the year, but that high 3562 concentrations are not limited to a specific time of year. This is consistent with the conclusions 3563 drawn by Joy (2000) in the Lower Nooksack River Watershed: Bacteria Total Maximum Daily 3564 Load Evaluation. The geometric mean of these data is 65/100 mL, which does not exceed the 3565 100/100 mL criterion; however the bottom panel of Figure 2.5.6 shows that approximately 20 % 3566 of the observations at this location exceed the 200/100 mL upper criterion and support the 303(d) 3567 listing of this segment, consistent with the listing data reported by Cochran (1990). 3568 3569 Figure 2.5.7 shows the DOE data collected during the time period for which the segment at river 3570 mile 3.4 is listed. The Washington State 303(d) list (WDOE, 1997a) cites 6 excursions above the 3571 200/100 mL upper criterion out of 33 samples (18 % exceedance) as the basis for listing this 3572 segment. Figure 2.5.7 actually shows 6 excursions out of 46 observations (13% exceedance) 3573 during this time period, which is not consistent with the 303(d) list but still meets the criteria for 3574 listing. 3575 3576 If the period of record for fecal coliform bacteria data from all data sources is examined, the 3577 frequency of exceedance of the 200/100 mL criterion is approximately 20 %. Figure 2.5.8 shows 3578 a time series and probability plot for all of the fecal coliform bacteria data collected in the 3579 Nooksack River at Brennan, starting in the 1970s and running through 2000. 3580 3581

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Water Quality Criterion, 200

1

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Oct97

Jan 98 Apr Jul Oct Jan 99 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2000

Time Series for Nooksack River at Marine Drive

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0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050

Frequency Distribution for Nooksack River at Marine Drive

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Cumulative frequency < stated value, %

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3583 3584 Figure 2.5.6. Fecal coliform bacteria Data for the Nooksack River at Marietta (Marine 3585 Drive). 3586 3587

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10

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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Time Series for Nooksack River at Brennan

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Date 3588 Figure 2.5.7. WDOE Fecal coliform bacteria data for the Nooksack River at Brennan 3589 (01A050) (9/91-9/96). 3590

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10

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1970 1980 1990 2000

Time Series for NOOKSACK RIVER AT BRENNAN

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Date 3591 3592


0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050

Frequency Distribution for NOOKSACK RIVER AT BRENNAN

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3593 3594 Figure 2.5.8. Fecal coliform bacteria Data for the Nooksack River at Brennan (1970-2000). 3595 3596 3597

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Even though there is a 20% exceedance of the upper criterion over the period of record of data at 3598 this location, the 303(d) listing guidance only requires that the most recent 5 years of data be 3599 considered. In this case, the most recent data point in the database is in September of 2000, so 3600 the 5-year period would be from 9/1995 to 9/2000. Figure 2.5.9 shows time series and 3601 probability plots for these data. 3602 3603 Figure 2.5.9 shows that during the most recent 5 years the frequency of criterion exceedance is 3604 actually less than 10 % at this location (geometric mean = 50/100 mL), with only two excursions 3605 above the 200/100 mL criterion in the last 3 years of data. In general it appears that fecal 3606 coliform bacteria have decreased at this location over the period of record, although it is difficult 3607 to recognize a significant trend in the data shown in Figure 2.5.8. Joy (2000) states that this 3608 declining trend is significant at the 95% confidence level using a Seasonal Kendall test with 3609 correction for discharge, and that the trend is much more significant for the drier months of May 3610 to September when the data are stratified into two seasons. 3611 3612 The data for which this segment was listed certainly meet the criteria for 303(d) listing. 3613 However, it appears that if the most recent 5 years of data were considered, it is possible that this 3614 segment would no longer qualify for listing. More recent data (post September 2000) could 3615 further substantiate any decreasing trend in fecal coliform bacteria at this location. 3616 3617 Loading Assessment 3618 In order to better understand the impairments in the Mainstem Nooksack it is necessary to 3619 quantify the loadings from the major tributaries. Table 2.5.2 shows the average monthly flows 3620 for the main tributaries to the Nooksack River. This table was generated in cooperation with the 3621 USU Surface Water Quantity team. As described in the footnotes of the table, some of this 3622 information was calculated from raw gage data available in the drainage of interest. Four of the 3623 drainages, however, did not have long-term gage data available at the mouth of the subbasin. In 3624 these cases, the estimates of long-term mean monthly stream flow used to calculate the loadings 3625 for the Fishtrap, Bertrand, Kamm, and Silver drainages were produced by the Surface Water 3626 Quantity team at USU and are described in detail in the Surface Water Quantity Task 2 report. 3627 The estimate is based on a non-parametric statistical regression that relates naturalized 3628 (unimpaired) runoff at gauged watersheds to physical characteristics (e.g., mean elevation, relief) 3629 of the watershed draining to the gage. The resulting estimates are then reduced to reflect current 3630 water use (Surface Water Quantity Task 3 report). 3631 3632 These loadings are calculated as the product of flow and water quality data. To determine the 3633 uncertainty associated with the loading, the error is transmitted via a simple product calculation: 3634 L = QC, for which the uncertainty is found by combining variances (Berthouex and Brown, 3635 1996): σ2

L = SQ2σ2

Q + SC2σ2

C + SQ SC cov(Q,C) = C2σ2Q + Q2

Cσ2C + CQcov(Q,C), in which SQ 3636

and SC are the sensitivies of the load to the flow and concentration. From L = QC, SQ = C and SC 3637 = Q. As an example for Kamm Cr., January load, Q = 39.1 (15) cfs, C = 0.183 (0.1) mg/L with 3638 cov(Q,C) = 3.85 (cfs x mg/L). Thus σ2

L = 225(0.183)2 + 0.01(39.1)2 + (39.1)(0.183)(3.85) = 50 3639 (cfs x mg/L)2 or σL = 7.1 (cfs x mg/L). Converting units σL = 38 (lb/day). The 95% confidence 3640 interval of the loading is L ± tν,0.025 σL /n0.5 in which t is the Student’s t statistic for ν degrees of 3641 freedom for 95% probability and n is the number of data points used in the calculation (11 for 3642 this calculation). For Kamm Cr., the 95% confidence interval for the loading is 17 - 63 lb/day. 3643 This approach will be applied for all loading calculations within the DSS.3644

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Time Series for Nooksack River at Brennan

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0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050

Frequency Distribution for Nooksack River at Brennan

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3646 Figure 2.5.9. Fecal coliform bacteria Data for the Nooksack River at Brennan (9/1995-3647 9/2000). 3648 3649 3650

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Table 2.5.2. Average Monthly Flow Data for Mainstem Nooksack Drainages 3651 Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual

N.F. Nooksack1 1470 1424 1128 1300 2062 2712 1992 1279 946 1237 1482 1864 1575

M.F. Nooksack2 645.7 565.4 427.8 487.3 694.2 736.0 513.0 323.3 357.3 545.4 659.6 664.7 559.7

S.F. Nooksack3 1096 950 815 981.7 1264 1049 546 264 336 759 1212 1247 877

Bertrand Ck.5 162.8 148.2 98.3 62.8 41.1 26.0 15.3 3.6 3.0 28.8 91.4 144.9 68.6

Fishtrap Ck5 144.3 132.6 88.5 56.3 37.2 25.8 18.0 7.7 6.3 26.3 80.5 128.2 62.3

Kamm Slough5 39.1 35.7 25.7 16.4 8.9 3.2 1.1 0.5 0.8 4.9 17.5 29.5 15.2

Tenmile Ck4 75.2 70.5 59.3 47.5 18.5 12.0 7.6 5.0 7.1 8.9 31.4 52.6 33.0

Silver Ck5 71.8 53.1 34.2 21.6 10.2 10.4 8.8 4.9 5.0 8.5 27.4 59.4 26.2 1.) Subbasin monthly average flow estimated from gage at North Fork Nooksack Nr. Deming (12207200) 3652 2.) Subbasin monthly average flow estimated from adding gage at Middle Fork Nooksack Nr. Deming (12208000) and Canyon 3653

Ck. at Kulshan (12208500) 3654 3.) Subbasin monthly average flow estimated from adding gage at South Fork Nooksack Nr. Wickersham (1220900) and the 3655 Skookum Cr. Nr. Wickersham (12209500) 3656 4.) Subbasin monthly average flow estimated from gage at Tenmile Ck. Nr. Laurel (12212900) 3657 5.) Subbasin monthly average flow estimated using mean elevation and relief regression from Surface Water Quantity team 3658 3659 The stream flow estimates for the Fishtrap drainage are reliable since there are gages within the 3660 drainage that were used in producing the estimate (Surface Water Quantity Task 2 report). Since 3661 the Bertrand and Kamm drainages are nearby, it is expected that these estimates are also good, 3662 provided that there are no significant dissimilarities. However, there is no measured flow data in 3663 the Silver Creek drainage, and no stream flow gage nearby, so the estimate for the Silver Creek 3664 drainage is more uncertain, but likely overestimated, as inferred from the water balance results 3665 (Surface Water Quantity Task 2 report). The average concentrations for total suspended solids, 3666 total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria were calculated for each Mainstem 3667 tributary by using the data collected at the most downstream water quality stations on each 3668 tributary. The following table shows the stations that were used on each tributary in order to 3669 calculate the average monthly concentration for each constituent. 3670 3671 Some stations in these groupings are not located near the mouth of the tributary. In these cases, 3672 stations upstream were included in order to provide more data to calculate average 3673 concentrations. Many of the stations near the mouth did not have the necessary data. Although 3674 these groupings increase the variability associated with the loading estimates by including 3675 different locations, the increased number of observations related to the grouping improves the 3676 precision of the estimate of the mean concentration. This trade-off likely results in little net 3677 change in the precision of the estimate of the average, but may bias the mean. Whether the bias is 3678 positive or negative depends on the water quality parameter for which the loading estimate is 3679 sought. This is demonstrated in Figure 2.5.10 below, in which longitudinal profiles of fecal 3680 coliform bacteria and total phosphorus in Tenmile Creek are shown. The fecal coliform bacteria 3681 concentrations increase with distance downstream, so adding upstream data will tend to lower 3682 the estimate of the mean. In contrast, the total phosphorus concentrations decrease with distance 3683

169

and the estimate will be biased high. However, these trends are not universal and may be 3685 reversed or not exist at all. In the averaging work done, care was taken to select stations near the 3686 mouth of the tributary. For the Tenmile Creek example, the five stations grouped in Table 2.5.3 3687 are within one-half mile of each other and are below Barrett Lake so the averaging is not 3688 expected to create a large bias. 3689 3690 An example illustrates the approach. Figure 2.5.11 shows a sequence of plots for fecal coliform 3691 bacteria at the mouth of Tenmile Cr. Table 2.5.4 summarizes statistical information. The values 3692 of interest are the mean, geometric mean and median, and the 95% confidence intervals for these 3693 quantities. Moving from left to right in the table shows the effect of removing stations from the 3694 group13 - note that, although there is a large increase in the range of data with more stations, the 3695 95% confidence intervals change little, particularly for the geometric mean and the median, even 3696 as the standard deviation increase as more stations are added. The median value is essentially 3697 unchanged. 3698 3699 The estimates shown in the tables below should be taken as estimates representative of long time 3700 periods. The precision of the estimates will be calculated for scenario-based loadings under 3701 Phase III. 3702 3703 The following tables show the monthly average concentrations of total suspended solids, total 3704 phosphorus, total ammonia, and fecal coliform bacteria calculated for each major tributary. The 3705 blank cells indicate that there are no data collected for the constituent of concern during these 3706 months. 3707 3708 3709

13 Stations are removal in no particular order – this is only an example

1 3 5 7 9

Approximate River Mile

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1,000

2

3

45678

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45678

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Tenmile Cr., Tetra Tech (1989)

± One standard deviation

1 3 5 7 9


0.00

0.05

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0.25

Tota

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± One standard deviation

Figure 2.5.10 Water quality data summaries for Tenmile Cr. from Tetra Tech (1989).

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Table 2.5.3. Grouping of Mainstem Tributary Stations Used to Calculate Average 3710 Monthly Concentrations 3711

Tributary Stations Used For Load Calculation

North Fork Nooksack 01A140 USGSNAWQA-NNOOK2 Nooksack-23

South Fork Nooksack 01F070 NWIC-SF USGSNAWQA-SNOOK ACME-18 Nooksack-8 ACME-L LNT-2475 DOE-01F070

Middle Fork Nooksack 01G070 ACME-4 LNT-2491 LNT-2480 COB-WELCOMECTR DOE-01G070 12208000

Bertrand Creek 01TBER Fishtrap Creek 01TFIS1

01TFIS FISHTCRR DOE-FIS NWIC-F1 12212200 DOE-FIS1

Kamm Slough 01TKAM DOE-KAM NWIC-K1 12211400 USGSNAWQA-KAMM WWU-25 DOE-KAM1

Tenmile Creek 01TTEN1 DOE-TEN NWIC-T1 01TTEN DOE-TEN1

Silver Creek 01TSIL NWIC-SL1 11B027 01B050

3712

171

3712


100/100 mL criterion100

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1997 1998 1999 2000

Time Series for Tenmile Creek Nr Mouth

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a) 01TTEN1, DOE-TEN, NWIC-T1, 01TTEN, DOE-TEN1 b) 01TTEN1, DOE-TEN, NWIC-T1



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Figure 2.5.11 Example of Station Grouping for average concentration calculation, Fecal Coliform Bacteria (no./100 mL) Tenmile Cr. near the Nooksack Confluence, 1997-2000

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Table 2.5.4 Statistical summary fecal coliform bacteria for Tenmile Cr. , 1997-2000, 3712 showing different station groupings (Table 2.5.1, and Figures 2.5.2 and 2.5.3 provide 3713 locations and descriptions for these stations) 3714

Statistic (#100 mL)

01TTEN1, DOE-TEN, NWIC-T1,

01TTEN, DOE-TEN1

01TTEN1, DOE-TEN, NWIC-T1,

01TTEN1, DOE-TEN 01TTEN1

Count 89 68 36 19 Mean 497 321 409 234 Std. deviation 843 441 562 215 Coef. variation 1.7 1.37 1.37 .92 Std. error of mean 89 54 94 49 Lower 95% CL 322 217 226 138 Upper 95% CL 672 427 593 331 Geom. Mean 226 189 212 182 Lower 95% CL 177 149 152 131 Upper 95% CL 289 240 297 253 Median 170 160 165 150 Lower 95% CL 108 99 63 110 Upper 95% CL 231 220 267 189 10% 70 70 77 77 25% 88 86 100 100 75% 460 405 490 210 90% 910 715 795 480 Minimum 20 20 62 77 Maximum 4500 2600 2600 840

3715 Most of the averages in the preceding tables are calculated from 1-6 data points with some of 3720 them being calculated from up to 12 data points. More extensive data sets would assist in better 3721 understanding the actual monthly loads to the Nooksack River and Portage Bay. This issue will 3722 be addressed in the data gaps section of this report. 3723 3724 The following tables (Table 2.5.5-2.5.8) show the monthly loads of each constituent of concern 3725 from the major tributaries to the Nooksack River. The loads were calculated by multiplying the 3726 monthly average concentrations by the monthly average flows. Figure 2.5.12 shows the 3727 distributions of the loadings for suspended solids, total phosphorus, ammonia-nitrogen, and fecal 3728 coliform bacteria from these tables. The figures show large differences in loadings from each 3729 tributary and Nooksack forks. The suspended solids and total phosphorus loadings predominately 3730 derive from the North and South forks of the Nooksack with a smaller contribution from the 3731 Middle Fork. The lower tributaries contribute only small amounts. In contrast, the ammonia-3732 nitrogen and fecal coliform bacteria loads are more evenly distributed. For ammonia-nitrogen, 3733 the upland forks contribute about two-thirds of the load with significant contributions from 3734 Fishtrap, Bertrand, and Kamm Creeks. For fecal coliform bacteria, Fishtrap, Bertrand, and 3735 Kamm Creeks contribute about one-half the load, while the contribution of the upland forks is 3736 about one third. The remaining load is associated with Tenmile and Silver Creeks. Since the 3737 TMDL listings for the Nooksack main stem described above are for fecal coliform, a broad-3738 based approach for loading reduction is indicated. The issue of fecal coliform is discussed in 3739 more detail below. 3740 3741

14 N.F., M.F. results for all tables based on a single monthly observations in 1995 and 1996

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Table 2.5.5. Monthly Average Total Suspended Solids (mg/L) Concentrations For Major 3742 Mainstem Tributaries 3743

Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack15 201.0 21.0 92.0 44.0 49.0 278.0 46.0 27.0 12.0 97.0 8.0 4.0 73.3 M.F. Nooksack 8.1 4.0 35.0 3.0 2.9 36.7 23.8 30.4 16.8 11.5 nd 11.3 nd S.F. Nooksack 112.7 35.7 47.3 32.5 13.1 74.8 3.7 22.1 3.1 124.3 1047.4 83.9 133.4 Bertrand Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Fishtrap Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Kamm Slough 14.7 15.6 11.7 6.1 7.9 5.5 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.7 25.9 29.3 11.1 Tenmile Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Silver Ck 9.0 11.5 14.0 3.5 11.0 6.0 13.5 15.5 6.0 3.5 4.0 3.5 8.4

3744 Table 2.5.6. Monthly Average Total Phosphorus (mg/L as P) Concentrations For Major 3745 Mainstem Tributaries 3746

Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack 0.120 0.050 0.080 0.100 0.070 0.040 0.060 0.030 0.030 0.080 0.010 0.020 0.058 M.F. Nooksack 0.010 0.020 0.080 0.050 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.050 0.024 0.055 0.007 0.020 0.036 S.F. Nooksack 0.100 0.090 0.140 0.080 0.040 0.060 0.020 0.010 0.030 0.094 0.063 0.050 0.065 Bertrand Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Fishtrap Ck 0.170 0.060 0.048 0.080 0.082 0.030 0.060 0.015 0.045 0.075 0.093 0.076 0.080

Kamm Slough 0.183 0.125 0.173 0.097 0.093 0.093 0.046 0.035 0.043 0.110 0.186 0.215 0.117 Tenmile Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Silver Ck 0.060 0.085 0.075 0.065 0.075 0.055 0.145 0.170 0.080 0.050 0.065 0.075 0.083

3747 Table 2.5.7. Monthly Average Total Ammonia (mg/L as N) Concentrations For Major 3748 Mainstem Tributaries 3749

Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.030 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.0 M.F. Nooksack 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.030 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 nd 0.010 nd S.F. Nooksack 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.030 0.020 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.020 0.010 0.0 Bertrand Ck nd 0.087 nd nd nd nd nd nd 0.025 nd 0.130 nd nd Fishtrap Ck 0.140 0.045 nd nd nd nd nd nd 0.010 0.220 0.057 0.165 nd Kamm Slough 0.236 0.216 0.213 0.089 0.103 0.122 0.058 0.039 0.023 0.416 0.184 0.208 0.2 Tenmile Ck 0.010 0.020 nd nd nd nd nd nd 0.010 0.035 0.087 0.038 nd Silver Ck 0.050 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.035 0.020 0.040 0.025 0.030 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.032

3750 Table 2.5.8. Monthly Average Fecal coliform bacteria (#/100 mL) Concentrations For 3751 Major Mainstem Tributaries 3752

Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack 4 2 14 2 32 120 11 11 6 54 15 3 23 M.F. Nooksack 1 2 7 1 1 12 4 2 3 4 nd 1 3.4 S.F. Nooksack 19 15 35 4 4 27 11 43 7 27 46 20 21 Bertrand Ck nd 379 nd 215 160 2200 200 438 126 nd 156 nd 484 Fishtrap Ck 220 508 1438 267 387 1230 363 741 349 2429 265 933 761 Kamm Slough 479 645 206 708 1839 2076 620 797 754 638 625 396 815 Tenmile Ck 122 220 375 197 257 723 376 608 87 1891 640 238 478 Silver Ck nd 564 137 80 81 290 2030 200 52 146 190 200 360

3753 15 N.F., M.F. results for all tables based on a single monthly observations in 1995 and 1996

174

Suspended Solids Load Distribution

N.F. Nooksack

M.F. Nooksack

S.F. Nooksack

Bertrand Ck

Fishtrap Ck

Kamm Slough

Tenmile Ck

Silver Ck

Ammoniia Nitrogen Load Distribution

N.F. Nooksack M.F.

Nooksack

S.F. NooksackBertrand

CkFishtrap Ck

Kamm Slough

Tenmile Ck

Silver Ck

3753

Total Phosphorus Load Distribution

N.F. Nooksack

M.F. Nooksack

S.F. Nooksack

Bertrand Ck

Fishtrap Ck

Kamm Slough

Tenmile Ck

Silver CkFecal Coliform Bacteria Load Distribution

N.F. Nooksack

M.F. Nooksack

S.F. Nooksack

Bertrand Ck

Fishtrap CkKamm Slough

Tenmile Ck

Silver Ck

3754 Figure 2.5.12 Example of Station Grouping for average concentration calculation, Fecal Coliform Bacteria (no./100 mL) 3755 Tenmile Cr. near the Nooksack Confluence, 1997-2000 3756

175

Table 2.5.9. Daily Loading (lbs/day)of Suspended Solids from Major Tributaries to the Nooksack River 3757 Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack 1.59E+06 1.61E+05 5.58E+05 3.08E+05 5.43E+05 4.06E+06 4.93E+05 1.86E+05 6.11E+04 6.46E+05 6.38E+04 4.01E+04 6.20E+05 M.F. Nooksack 2.80E+04 1.22E+04 8.05E+04 7.73E+03 1.06E+04 1.45E+05 6.57E+04 5.29E+04 3.23E+04 3.37E+04 4.05E+04 S.F. Nooksack 6.64E+05 1.82E+05 2.07E+05 1.71E+05 8.88E+04 4.22E+05 1.10E+04 3.14E+04 5.66E+03 5.07E+05 6.83E+06 5.63E+05 6.29E+05 Bertrand Ck Nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Fishtrap Ck Nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Kamm Slough 3.09E+03 2.99E+03 1.61E+03 5.39E+02 3.76E+02 9.38E+01 2.65E+01 1.27E+01 1.68E+01 9.71E+01 2.44E+03 4.65E+03 9.05E+02 Tenmile Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Silver Ck 3.47E+03 3.29E+03 2.57E+03 4.06E+02 6.01E+02 3.34E+02 6.38E+02 4.12E+02 1.60E+02 1.60E+02 5.89E+02 1.12E+03 1.18E+03 3758 3759 3760 3761 3762 3763 3764 3765 3766 3767 3768 3769 3770 Table 2.5.10. Daily Loading (lbs/day) of Total Phosphorus from Major Tributaries to the Nooksack River 3771

Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack 948.682 383.049 485.271 699.133 776.263 583.514 642.947 206.462 152.718 532.482 79.732 200.577 487.062 M.F. Nooksack 34.732 60.826 184.090 131.048 112.016 158.358 137.982 86.945 46.127 161.367 24.834 71.510 109.377 S.F. Nooksack 589.518 460.016 613.621 422.444 272.042 338.616 58.717 14.193 54.228 383.610 410.660 335.366 305.318 Bertrand Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Fishtrap Ck 131.922 42.805 22.846 24.235 16.403 4.170 5.794 0.621 1.524 10.605 40.270 52.424 26.813 Kamm Slough 38.479 23.992 23.897 8.553 4.428 1.586 0.282 0.099 0.189 2.904 17.488 34.159 9.521 Tenmile Ck nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd nd Silver Ck 23.160 24.301 13.783 7.535 4.096 3.062 6.849 4.517 2.135 2.288 9.567 23.968 11.724

176

3772 Table 2.5.11. Daily Loading (lbs/day) of Total Ammonia from Major Tributaries to the Nooksack River 3773

Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack 79.057 76.610 60.659 209.740 110.895 145.878 107.158 68.821 50.906 66.560 79.732 100.288 98.824 M.F. Nooksack 34.732 30.413 23.011 78.629 37.339 39.590 27.596 17.389 19.219 29.340 nd 35.755 nd S.F. Nooksack 58.952 51.113 43.830 158.416 136.021 56.436 29.358 14.193 18.076 40.810 130.368 67.073 62.871 Bertrand Ck nd 69.373 nd nd nd nd nd nd 0.405 nd 63.935 nd nd Fishtrap Ck 108.642 32.104 nd nd nd nd nd nd 0.339 0.220 24.682 113.815 nd Kamm Slough 49.623 41.458 29.423 7.848 4.904 2.080 0.355 0.110 0.101 10.983 17.300 33.047 12.978 Tenmile Ck 4.046 7.580 nd nd nd nd nd nd 0.380 1.673 14.689 10.749 nd Silver Ck 19.300 11.436 6.432 3.478 1.912 1.113 1.889 0.664 0.801 0.915 3.680 9.587 4.455

3774 3775 3776 3777 3778 3779 3780 3781 3782 3783 3784 Table 2.5.12. Daily Loading (#/day) of Fecal coliform bacteria from Major Tributaries to the Nooksack River 3785 Subbasin Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual N.F. Nooksack 1.44E+11 6.96E+10 3.86E+11 6.36E+10 1.61E+12 7.96E+12 5.36E+11 3.44E+11 1.39E+11 1.63E+12 5.44E+11 1.37E+11 8.79E+11 M.F. Nooksack 1.58E+10 2.76E+10 7.32E+10 1.19E+10 1.70E+10 2.16E+11 5.02E+10 1.58E+10 2.62E+10 5.33E+10 nd 1.63E+10 nd S.F. Nooksack 5.09E+11 3.48E+11 6.97E+11 9.60E+10 1.13E+11 7.00E+11 1.47E+11 2.79E+11 5.34E+10 5.01E+11 1.37E+12 5.97E+11 4.60E+11 Bertrand Ck nd 1.37E+12 nd 3.30E+11 1.61E+11 1.40E+12 7.48E+10 3.89E+10 9.27E+09 nd 3.49E+11 nd nd Fishtrap Ck 7.76E+11 1.65E+12 3.11E+12 3.67E+11 3.52E+11 7.77E+11 1.59E+11 1.39E+11 5.37E+10 1.56E+12 5.21E+11 2.92E+12 1.16E+12 Kamm Slough 4.58E+11 5.63E+11 1.29E+11 2.84E+11 3.98E+11 1.61E+11 1.73E+10 1.02E+10 1.50E+10 7.66E+10 2.67E+11 2.86E+11 3.03E+11 Tenmile Ck 2.24E+11 3.79E+11 5.44E+11 2.29E+11 1.16E+11 2.12E+11 7.03E+10 7.38E+10 1.50E+10 4.11E+11 4.91E+11 3.06E+11 3.85E+11 Silver Ck nd 7.32E+11 1.14E+11 4.19E+10 2.01E+10 7.34E+10 4.36E+11 2.42E+10 6.25E+09 3.04E+10 1.27E+11 2.91E+11 2.11E+11

3786

177

Portage Bay 3787 3788 Fecal coliform bacteria 3789 The entire Nooksack River watershed is included in the Portage Bay Shellfish Protection 3790 District. The Shellfish Protection District was formed in 1997 in response to down-grades in the 3791 shellfish growing area in Portage Bay. As of September 1999 approximately 220 acres of this 3792 growing area was classified as “restricted” for commercial shellfish harvesting by the WDOH 3793 because of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations that exceeded the shellfish protection criterion 3794 (Hirsch Consulting Services, 2000). The Portage Bay shellfish growing area encompasses the 3795 area between the Lummi Peninsula and Portage Island and extends northeast along the southeast 3796 shore of the Peninsula. The shellfish protection criterion requires that the geometric mean of the 3797 most recent 30 fecal coliform bacteria measurements not exceed 14 MPN/100 mL and that the 3798 90th percentile of the measurements not exceed 43 MPN16/100 mL (Office of Seafood, 2000; 3799 Washington Department of Health, 2001). Salinity monitoring data in Bellingham Bay and 3800 Portage Bay has been used to show that fresh water, probably from the Nooksack River, enters 3801 the Portage Bay shellfish growing area (Hirsch Consulting Services, 2000). The ebb and flow of 3802 the tides undoubtedly provides the force that creates the principal currents in Bellingham and 3803 Portage Bays. These currents are most likely responsible for carrying fresh water into Portage 3804 Bay. However, it has been suggested that winds from the West and Southwest may help move 3805 the fresh water from the Nooksack River against the Lummi Peninsula shore (Hirsch Consulting 3806 Services, 2000). More detailed information about currents within Bellingham and Portage Bays 3807 and their relationship to the tidal cycle or wind conditions was not available. 3808 3809 Two recent reports contain reviews of the available fecal coliform bacteria data relevant to the 3810 Portage Bay shellfish growing area. As part of the TMDL process for the lower Nooksack River 3811 Basin, Joy (2000) analyzed historical fecal coliform bacteria data for the Nooksack River and its 3812 tributaries and for Portage Bay. Hirsch Consulting Services (2000) performed a comprehensive 3813 evaluation of fecal coliform bacteria trends in the Nooksack River, Nooksack River Tributaries 3814 and in Portage Bay. 3815 3816 Joy (2000) proposed a reduction in fecal coliform bacteria loading in the Nooksack River and its 3817 tributaries that would result in a fecal coliform bacteria density distribution at the Nooksack 3818 River delta that would have an upper 90th percentile that would not exceed 200 cfu/100 mL. The 3819 geometric mean of this fecal coliform bacteria population would be 39 cfu/100 mL. A simple, 3820 empirical, first order fecal coliform bacteria decay equation was developed using data from 3821 Nooksack River mouth samples and data from stations DOH-12 and DOH-13 in Portage Bay . 3822 The equation was: 3823 3824

ktMDport eFCFC −= 3825

3826 where FCport = the average fecal coliform bacteria count at Portage Bay sampling stations DOH-3827 12 and –13 (cfu or MPN/100 mL), FCMD = the fecal coliform bacteria count at Marine Drive, k = 3828 the general fecal coliform bacteria reduction rate (day-1), t = the time of travel from the river to 3829 DOH-12 or –13 based on the river’s velocity (days). 3830 16 MPN = Most Probable Number is a unit of measurement for microorganisms that is based on the tube fermentation method. It is similar to the more familiar number/100 mL reported using membrane filtration.

178

Based on the analysis of data sets corresponding to classes of river flow rates of <2500 cfs, 2500-3831 7000 cfs, and >7000 cfs, values of k ranged from –10.9 (fecal coliform bacteria concentrations 3832 increase with distance) to 54 per day and averaged 18.3 per day. This equation was used in a 3833 Monte Carlo simulation to determine if shellfish protection criteria would be met in Portage Bay 3834 when the TMDL target fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were met. The TMDL target 3835 distribution of fecal coliform bacteria density (geometric mean, 39 cfu/100 mL; upper 90th 3836 percentile, 200 cfu/100 mL), a distribution of monthly river discharge, and a distribution of fecal 3837 coliform bacteria reduction rates were used in the simulation. The simulation indicated that the 3838 shellfish growing area protection criterion would be met with only occasional exceptions if this 3839 fecal coliform bacteria population density distribution existed. The author concluded, however, 3840 that the extreme variability in Nooksack River coliform concentrations and the uncertainty in the 3841 fecal coliform bacteria reduction rate make predicting the frequency of criteria violations very 3842 uncertain. The fecal coliform bacteria reduction rate integrates the destructive or protective 3843 effects of all environmental variables including dispersion or dilution, sunlight, temperature, 3844 (Burkhardt, Calci et al., 2000), salinity, predation, settling, resuspension, and growth (Joy 2000). 3845 Sunlight and temperature may have the greatest influence on the reduction rate (Burkhardt, Calci 3846 et al., 2000). Drift studies indicate that water from the Nooksack River has highly variable travel 3847 times to reach the Portage Bay shellfish growing area. The travel time may exceed a single tidal 3848 cycle (Hirsch Consulting Services, 2000) and exposure to solar radiation can be highly variable. 3849 It remains unknown if achieving the lower Nooksack River fecal coliform bacteria TMDL target 3850 of a geometric mean of 39 cfu/100 mL with less than 10% of the samples exceeding 200 cfu/100 3851 mL will protect the shellfish growing areas in Portage Bay. 3852 3853 Hirsch Consulting (2000) examined fecal coliform bacteria concentration data collected in and 3854 around Portage Bay for trends in time and in relationship to water salinity. The data analyzed by 3855 Hirsch Consulting (2000) included 2500 samples from 55 sampling stations from eight sampling 3856 organizations covering a large geographical area within the Portage Bay Shellfish Protection 3857 District from the years 1995 through 2000, primarily the years 1999-2000. Salinity data indicated 3858 that several sampling stations within the approved shellfish harvesting area are not affected by 3859 freshwater inputs to the Bay. At these consistently high salinity stations, fecal coliform bacteria 3860 concentrations are more frequently within the shellfish protection criteria and they have not, 3861 generally, increased or decreased with time. Those stations that have had salinities less than 10 3862 parts per thousand (ppt) frequently exceed criteria and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations 3863 appear to have been increasing with time. Geometric mean fecal coliform bacteria 3864 concentrations were 26 cfu/100 mL when sample salinities were less than 10 ppt but were 7 3865 cfu/100 mL when salinities were above 10 ppt. The average 90th percentile was 291 cfu/100 mL 3866 when salinity was below 10 ppt and only 46 cfu/100 mL when it was above 10 ppt. More data 3867 have been collected from stations when higher salinity conditions existed. However, violations 3868 occurred under both low and high salinity conditions. 3869 3870 Sources of fecal coliform bacteria entering the shellfish growing area that are not related to the 3871 Nooksack River discharge plume may include failing septic systems and malfunctions in the 3872 sewer system along the Lummi Peninsula shoreline. The increase in the frequency of observing 3873 relatively high fecal coliform bacteria concentrations in Portage Bay samples is noteworthy. 3874 Nowhere was this more obvious than at sampling station DOH-11 (Figure 2.5.13). 3875

179

3876 Figure 2.5.13. Portage Bay fecal coliform bacteria sampling stations and the “Restricted” 3877 shellfish growing area. 3878 3879 The upper 90th percentile concentration at this station increased linearly over time from 3880 approximately 125 cfu/100 mL in May 1999 to approximately 350 cfu/100 mL (more than 8 3881 times the criterion) in March 2000 (Hirsch Consulting Services, 2000). Most of the homes along 3882 Lummi Shore Road are connected to a sewer system, but a few homes may still be using septic 3883 systems. No direct evidence exists that there are discharges from failing septic systems into 3884

180

Portage Bay. The sewer system along Lummi Shore Road, which includes 10 pump stations, is 3885 aging but remains in working condition. A power outage on October 5, 2000, resulted in a pump 3886 station overflow to the Bay (Ragsdale 2000). 3887 3888 It is clear that the discharge of the Nooksack River into Bellingham Bay and hence to Portage 3889 Bay has been a major source of fecal pollution and pathogen hazard to the shellfish growing 3890 area. This is indicated by the elevated concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria that tend to be 3891 associated with lower salinity water in Portage Bay. The cleanup target (TMDL) concentration in 3892 the Nooksack River, 39 cfu/100 mL, is designed to protect the main stem of the Nooksack. 3893 Whether this level will be protective of Portage Bay shellfish growing areas is not clear. This 3894 uncertainty exists principally because the environmental conditions for pollutant transport from 3895 the river mouth to Portage Bay have not been completely described. Additionally, the 3896 relationships between Nooksack River discharges and Portage Bay are essentially stochastic in 3897 nature (Ross 2001, personal communication). It will not be possible to calculate the fecal 3898 coliform bacteria target for the river that will protect the shellfish beds with complete 3899 confidence, even if the transport processes and their variability are better described, and a 3900 reliable estimate of the potentially shortest time for transport and the frequency with which it 3901 occurs is found. However, quantification of the variability and transport travel times will be 3902 valuable for determine a fecal coliform bacteria loading limit that will keep shellfish beds 3903 operational. 3904 3905 2.5.4.2 Potential Water Quality Impaired Segments 3906 3907 Although most segments along the main stem meet water quality criteria for Class A waters, a 3908 number of issues exist with regard to water quality. This section will review those issues and 3909 identify those of concern for future water quality management. This assessment will be done 3910 using data from the major sampling locations along the main stem, starting at North Cedarville, 3911 for which a detailed assessment is presented, and proceeding to the river mouth, as shown in 3912 Figure 2.5.2. Grouped stations in Table 2.5.1 will be used. Summary statistics for individual 3913 stations are found in Table C-5 in the Appendix. 3914 3915 North Cedarville (NWIC-M6, 01A120, USGS-NCED, 12210700, DOE-M6, 01TMS6, 01TMS6R, 3916 01TMS6L) 3917 North Cedarville has been the subject of several water quality studies by WDOE, NWIC, and 3918 USGS. Due to the relatively large amount of data, this location can be regarded as the upstream 3919 boundary on the Nooksack Mainstem. 3920 3921 Temperature 3922 3923 Temperature data are plotted in Figure 2.5.14 and show that Class A water quality criteria are 3924 consistently met. However, the times of day at which these measurements were made were not 3925 reported, thus the diel variation is not included. Typical diel variations range from 1-2oC to as 3926

181

3927


Class AA Criterion, 16

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time Series for NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE

Tem

pera

ture

- w

ater

, C

Date

Median = 7.6 C

Median


Class AA Criterion, 16

0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050

Frequency Distribution for Nooksack R at North Cedarville

Tem

pera

ture

- w

ater

, C


0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

3928

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

January February March April May June July August September October NovemberDecember

Box plot for NOOKSACK RIVER AT NORTH CEDARVILLE

Tem

pera

ture

- w

ater

, C

Month 3929 Figure 2.5.14. Temperature Data for Nooksack R. at North Cedarville. 3930

182

much as 6-7 oC at nearby temperature locations (e.g. LNT-2480 and LNT-2491, M. Fork 3931 Nooksack at River Mile 4.9). Attempts were made to correlate air and water temperatures at the 3932 N. Cedarville station, as shown in Figure 2.5.15a with 36 simultaneous measurements, and at 3933 nearby M. Fork station, Figure 2.5.15b with close to 10,000 simultaneous measurements. 3934 Although the correlations were reasonably strong, r = 0.96 and 0.78, the range in predicting 3935 water temperature from air temperature is plus or minus 2-3oC. Taking the data in Figure 2.5.14 3936 as daily means or midday observations and superimposing typical diel variation, it is conceivable 3937 that violation of the Class A temperature criterion may exist at North Cedarville during summer 3938 peak months. 3939 3940 Temperature is plotted versus flow rate in Figure 2.5.16 and shows that the relationship is very 3941 weak (r = 0.16). However, temperature is strongly related to air temperature (r = 0.96), as shown 3942 in the bottom plot in Figure 2.5.15. 3943 3944 Dissolved Oxygen 3945 3946 Figure 2.5.17 shows dissolved oxygen data at North Cedarville. As with temperature, no 3947 violations of the Class A criterion occur. The same seasonal pattern exists for oxygen, and the 3948 correlation between oxygen and temperature is reasonably strong (r = 0.79), suggesting that the 3949 dissolved oxygen is strongly controlled by the temperature. Also similar to temperature, the 3950 Class AA criterion for oxygen (9 mg/L) is met with high frequency. 3951 3952 pH 3953 3954 Figure 2.5.18 shows pH data for North Cedarville. Few violations of the Class A criterion occur 3955 – approximately 1% each - are above and below the criteria. However, the pH trend (Figure 3956 2.5.18, bottom left) is increasing slightly over time and the variability also appears to be 3957 increasing in the period after 1980. No seasonal trend is seen (Figure 2.5.18, bottom right). 3958 3959 Suspended Solids/Turbidity 3960 3961 Figure 2.5.19 shows suspended solids for the Nooksack R. at North Cedarville, an indicator of 3962 erosion in the upper watershed. The patterns seen are typical of a system in equilibrium, in that 3963 there are no long term trends. The median concentration is approximately 30 mg/L and higher 3964 concentrations are observed in the fall. At times suspended solids concentrations are extremely 3965 high, above 1,000 mg/L. Figure 2.5.20 correlates suspended solids with flow rate at the gage 3966 located at North Cedarville and reveals a fairly strong correlation (r = 0.62), suggesting that high 3967 flows are a factor in the high suspended solids concentrations. This also suggests that erodible 3968 soils may be present in the upper portions of the watershed that contribute to the high 3969 concentrations. The average mass loading of suspended solids at North Cedarville is 3970 approximately 280 metric tons/day. 3971

183

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0

Correlation of Temperature - water, C vs. Temperature - air, C

Tem

pera

ture

- w

ater

, C

Temperature - air, C 3972 a) Nooksack River at North Cedarville 3973

3974

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Correlation of Temperature - water, C vs. Temperature - air, C

Tem

pera

ture

- w

ater

, C

Temperature - air, C 3975 b) Middle Fork Nooksack R. at River Mile 4.9 3976 3977 Figure 2.5.15. Correlation of air and water temperature at a) Nooksack River at North 3978 Cedarville (01A120), and b) Middle Fork Nooksack R. at River Mile 4.9 (LNT-2480 and 3979 LNT-2491)3980

184

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

0 2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000

Correlation of Temperature - water, C vs. Flow - Stream - mean daily, cfs

Tem

pera

ture

- w

ater

, C

Flow - Stream - mean daily, cfs 3981 3982

Figure 2.5.16. Water temperature correlations with flow and air temperature for Nooksack 3983 R. at North Cedarville.3984

185

3985 3986


7

9

11

13

15

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time Series for Nooksack R at North Cedarville

Oxy

gen

- dis

solv

ed, m

g/L

Date


0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050


Oxy

gen

- dis

solv

ed, m

g/L


7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

3987


7

9

11

13

15

January February March April May June July August September October November December

Box plot for Nooksack R at North Cedarville

Oxy

gen

- dis

solv

ed, m

g/L

Month 7

9

11

13

15

0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5

Correlation of Oxygen - dissolved, mg/L vs. Temperature - water, C

Oxy

gen

- dis

solv

ed, m

g/L

Temperature - water, C 3988 3989

Figure 2.5.17. Dissolved Oxygen Data for Nooksack R. at North Cedarville. 3990

186

Water Quality Criterion, 6.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000


pH, S

.U.

Month


0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050


pH, S

.U.


5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

3991


5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000


pH, S

.U.

Month


5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0



pH, S

.U.

Month 3992 3993 Figure 2.5.18. pH Data for Nooksack R. at North Cedarville. 3994

187

1

10

100

1000

1980 1990 2000


Res

idue

- To

tal N

onfil

trabl

e, m

g/L

Month

0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050


Res

idue

- To

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trabl

e, m

g/L


1

10

100

1000

3995

1

10

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1000

1980 1990 2000


Res

idue

- To

tal N

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trabl

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g/L

Month

1

10

100

1000



Res

idue

- To

tal N

onfil

trabl

e, m

g/L

Month 3996 3997

Figure 2.5.19. Total Suspended Solids Data for Nooksack R. at North Cedarville. 3998 3999

188

10

100

1000

1000 10000

Correlation of Residue - Total Nonfiltrable, mg/L vs. Flow - Stream - mean daily, cfsR

esid

ue -

Tota

l Non

filtra

ble,

mg/

L

Flow - Stream - mean daily, cfs 3999 4000

Figure 2.5.20. Correlation of Total Suspended Solids with Mean Daily Flow, Nooksack R. at 4001 N. Cedarville. 4002 4003 Nutrients 4004 4005 Total Phosphorus 4006 Total phosphorus concentrations at North Cedarville are plotted in Figure 2.5.21. Although no 4007 water quality criterion has been promulgated for total phosphorus, a commonly used 4008 concentration criterion for promoting algal activity is 0.05 mg/L (50 µg/L), shown on the plots. 4009 This guideline is violated in about 30% of the observations, suggesting that phosphorus sources 4010 are present upstream of North Cedarville. In addition, the total phosphorus data are censored at 4011 the apparent reporting limit of 0.01 mg/L – approximately 25% of the data are left censored. 4012 Under these circumstances, care must be taken in using summary statistics for loading 4013 calculations and other purposes (Berthouex and Brown, 1994). Specialized methods for this 4014 purpose will be used in all cases where censoring is significant in Phase III of this project. 4015 Describing data non-parametrically using order statistics introduces no bias in measures of 4016 central tendency and does not affect the manner in which the data are used here. 4017 4018 Total phosphorus is often correlated with suspended solids when sources are sediment related. 4019 Figure 2.5.22 explores this relationship over all data and suggests a moderate, but significant, 4020 correlation (r = 0.7). 4021

189


.01

.1

1

10

1970 1980 1990 2000


Pho

spho

rus

- Tot

al, m

g/L

as P

Date 4022 Figure 2.5.21. Total Phosphorus Concentrations at North Cedarville. 4023 4024

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250

Correlation of Phosphorus - Total, mg/L as P vs. Residue - Total Nonfiltrable, mg/L

Pho

spho

rus

- Tot

al, m

g/L

as P

Residue - Total Nonfiltrable, mg/L 4025 4026

Figure 2.5.22. Correlation of Total Phosphorus with Total Suspended Solids, Nooksack R. 4027 at N. Cedarville. 4028

190

Ammonia-nitrogen 4029 Ammonia-nitrogen, commonly implicated in respiratory impairment in cold water fish, is plotted 4030 in Figure 2.5.23. This plot demonstrates no violations of the ammonia water quality criterion of 4031 0.5 mg/L. Additionally, a slight downward trend is seen. Similar to the total phosphorus data 4032 above, ammonia-nitrogen concentrations are censored at the apparent reporting limit of 0.01 4033 mg/L – nearly 50% of the data are left censored in this case. Under these circumstances, care 4034 must be taken in using summary statistics for loading calculations and other purposes to avoid 4035 biases in statistics estimated from censored data (Berthouex and Brown, 1994). Again, 4036 describing data non-parametrically using order statistics introduces no bias in measures of central 4037 tendency and does not affect the manner in which the data are used here. 4038 4039 Fecal coliform bacteria 4040 Fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, plotted in Figure 2.5.24 show no violations of water 4041 quality criteria. The geometric mean is 8.7/100 mL (7.5 − 10.117), less than the 100/100 mL 4042 Class A criterion, and the 90th quantile is 56/100 mL, less than the 200/100 mL criterion. 4043 However, problematic in these estimates is that the data appear to be censored at 1/100 mL 4044 (about 20% of the measurements are left censored). The geometric mean value given above is 4045 therefore biased high, since all censored values are reported to be 1/100 mL for computation 4046 purposes. The actual 4047 4048



Apparent reporting limit

0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 60500.01 99.99


Nitr

ogen

- am

mon

ia -

Tota

l NH

3+N

H4,

mg/

L as

N


.01

.1

4049 4050

Figure2.5.23. Ammonia-nitrogen Concentrations at North Cedarville. 4051 4052

4053

17 95% confidence interval for the geometric mean

191


1

10

100

1000

1970 1980 1990 2000


Feca

l Col

iform

- M

embr

Filt

er, M

-FC

BR

OTH

- 44

.5

Date


90th Quantile Criterion

0.02 99.980.1 99.91 992 985 9510 9020 8030 7040 6050


Feca

l Col

iform

- M

embr

Filt

er, M

-FC

BR

OTH

- 44

.5


1

10

100

1000

4053 4054


1

10

100

1000

Winter Spring Summer Fall


Feca

l Col

iform

- M

embr

Filt

er, M

-FC

BR

OTH

- 44

.5

Season


1

10

100

1000



Feca

l Col

iform

- M

embr

Filt

er, M

-FC

BR

OTH

- 44

.5

Month 4055 4056

Figure 2.5.24. Fecal coliform bacteria Concentrations at North Cedarville. 4057 4058

192

geometric mean is less than 8.7/100 mL. The 90th quantile is unaffected by left censoring. The 4059 seasonal box plot in Figure 2.5.24, lower left, suggests that fecal coliform bacteria concentrations 4060 are higher in fall than in other seasons, and the monthly box plot (lower right) suggests that the 4061 frequency of high concentrations is higher in October than in other months. However, no 4062 correlation was found between fecal coliform bacteria and either flow or temperature at North 4063 Cedarville, so other influences are present. 4064 4065 The target fecal coliform bacteria for the Lower Nooksack River Basin Bacteria Total Maximum 4066 Daily Load Evaluation (Joy 2000) is an annual geometric mean of 14 cfu/100 mL. Although the 4067 annual mean and 90th quantile criteria, the geometric mean values for October and November are 4068 12 (6.5 – 21) and 12 (7.5-22) colonies/100 mL with only 5% censored, and are approaching the 4069 TMDL target values. 4070 4071 Other water quality parameters 4072 4073 Alkalinity Alkalinity at North Cedarville, Figure 2.5.25, is relatively stable between 20 and 40 4074 mg/L as CaCO3. This level is indicative of non-calcareous geologic materials and will provide 4075 only small amounts of resistance to pH change due to presences of acids, such as organic acids 4076 produced in manure storage and digestion, and bases, such as ammonia released in the 4077 4078

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960 1965 1970 1975


Alk

alin

ity -

Tota

l, m

g/L

as C

aCO

3

Month 4079 Figure 2.5.25. Alkalinity at North Cedarville. 4080 4081

193

ammonification of proteinaceous organic matter. Though few management options are available 4082 to increase alkalinity, alkalinity can be used as a fairly sensitive indicator of acidic or basic 4083 contaminant discharge. 4084 4085 Nitrite (NO2

-) +Nitrate (NO3-) Nitrite and nitrate, the oxidized forms of nitrogen commonly 4086

found in natural waters, are plotted below for North Cedarville. The upper plot (Figure2.5.26) is 4087 for nitrate alone while the lower plot is for both nitrite and nitrate. It is seen that the oxidized 4088 nitrogen levels are well below the water quality criterion of 10 mg/L used to protect drinking 4089 water, although concentrations are elevated somewhat over more pristine waters. Long-term 4090 trends are not apparent in these data. One interesting feature of these data is that the nitrate 4091 concentrations are cyclic in nature with high concentrations found in the fall and winter (lower 4092 left), particularly in December and January when flows are somewhat higher. 4093 4094 Changes in Water Quality Downstream 4095 4096 Water quality conditions in the remainder of the Nooksack Mainstem were assessed by 4097 reviewing changes in concentrations as the river flows downstream toward the mouth. Grouped 4098 stations at eight locations were summarized and these summaries were plotted versus river mile 4099 in Figures 2.5.27 – 2.5.31 for fecal coliform bacteria, suspended solids, total phosphorus, and 4100 ammonia-nitrogen. These were chosen as representative of the types of contamination that would 4101 be expected in the Lower Nooksack, flowing through agricultural and urban portions of the 4102 WRIA 1 WMA. 4103 4104 Fecal coliform bacteria patterns are shown in Figure 2.5.27. Concentrations are low but 4105 increasing slowly from mile 30 to mile 15. Thereafter, concentrations fluctuate with a large 4106 amplitude, reflecting loading from tributaries, dilution by surface and ground water, and, 4107 perhaps, a small amount of die-off. Water quality criteria are violated from mile 15 to the most 4108 downstream station at Marine Dr. The increase seen between miles 15 and 18 is due to 4109 contributions from Kamm Cr., Scott Cr., and a small amount from the Lynden wastewater 4110 treatment plant, while the increase at mile 6 includes Fishtrap and Bertrand Creeks, Tenmile Cr., 4111 and urban contributions from Ferndale. 4112 4113 Few suspended solids data were found; only at N. Cedarville and Brennan. Figure 2.5.28 shows 4114 little change between these two stations. 4115 4116 4117

194

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1960 1970 1980 1990


Nitr

ate

nitro

gen

- tot

al, m

g/L

as N

Date 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1970 1980 1990 2000


Nitr

ite p

lus

Nitr

ate

- Tot

al 1

del

., m

g/L

as N

Date 4118 4119

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

Winter Spring Summer Fall


Nitr

ate

nitro

gen

- tot

al, m

g/L

as N

Season 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0



Nitr

ate

nitro

gen

- tot

al, m

g/L

as N

Month 4120 4121

Figure 2.5.26. Nitrate and Nitrite+Nitrate Concentration at North Cedarville.4122

195

0 10 20 30


1

10

100

1,000

2

345678

2

345678

2

345678

Feca

l Col

iform

, #/1

00 m

L

Nooksack Mainstem, grouped data

90% WQ Standard = 200/100 mL

95% Confidence Interval

Geometric mean WQ Standard = 100/100 mL

90% Quantile

4123 Figure 2.5.27. Fecal coliform bacteria With Distance Downstream, Nooksack Mainstem, 4124 Grouped Data. 4125

0 10 20 30Approximate River Mile

10

100

89

2

3

4

5

6789

2

Tota

l sus

pend

ed s

olid

s, m

g/L



90% Quantile

4126 Figure 2.5.28. Suspended Solids With Distance Downstream, Nooksack Mainstem, Grouped 4127 Data. 4128 4129 4130

196

Figure 2.5.29 shows total phosphorus increasing by approximately 40% (using geometric mean, 4131 from 0.03 mg/L to 0.042 mg/L) as the water flows from North Cedarville to Brennan, using data 4132 from 1970 – 2000, suggesting the possibility that phosphorus is being tied-up in soils or other 4133 storage medium, and not discharged in excessive quantities in surface or groundwater. More 4134 recent data (1990 - 2000) echo this observation. The total phosphorus statistics must be viewed 4135 with caution, however, due to the possible presence of censoring. At North Cedarville, for 4136 example, about 25% of the data were reported to be 0.01 mg/L (100 observations out of 403), 4137 which is likely the method detection limit. The geometric mean concentrations simply set these 4138 values to those reported as if they were true values. It is likely that the actual geometric mean is 4139 lower than the value plotted in the figure. The median (or another non-parametric quantile, such 4140 as the 90th quantile plotted in Figure 2.5.29) is generally a better measure of central tendency in 4141 cases where significant amounts of censoring exist (Berthouex and Brown 1996). If more than 4142 one-half the data are above the detection limit, the median is more reliably estimated than the 4143 mean or geometric mean. In all data sets, the median and geometric mean tracked very closely 4144 and were used in the assessment. 4145 4146 In contrast to the total phosphorus data, ammonia-nitrogen concentrations increase significantly 4147 between North Cedarville and Lynden, while the concentration levels off and declines rapidly as 4148 the flow approaches the estuary. Nitrite+Nitrate-nitrogen increase gradually, similar to ammonia, 4149 but plateaus after mile 15 as ammonia is converted to the oxidized form. Total inorganic nitrogen 4150 is 0.24 mg/L at North Cedarville and increases to about 0.52 mg/L at the river mouth. Using flow 4151 data from the Surface Water Quantity Technical team, it is estimated that the total nitrogen 4152 burden in the Nooksack main stem increases by 350 metric tons/yr (750,000 pounds per year) 4153 between North Cedarville and Brennan. 4154

0 10 20 30


0.001

0.010

0.100

1.000

2

345678

2

345678

2

345678

Tota

l Pho

spho

rus,

mg/

L



WQ Guideline = 0.05 mg/L

90% Quantile

4155 Figure 2.5.29. Total Phosphorus with Distance Downstream, Nooksack Mainstem, Grouped 4156 Data, Geometric Mean and 90th Quantile. 4157

197

4158

0 10 20 30


0.01

0.10

1.00

2

3

4

56789

2

3

4

56789

Amm

onia

nitr

ogen

, mg/

L



WQ Standard = 0.5 mg/L

90% Quantile

4159 Figure 2.5.30. Ammonia-Nitrogen with Distance Downstream, Nooksack Mainstem, 4160 Grouped Data. 4161

0 10 20 30Approximate River Mile

0.10

1.00

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Nitr

ite +

Nitr

ate-

N, m

g/L



90% Quantile

4162 Figure 2.5.31. Nitrite+Nitrate-Nitrogen with Distance Downstream, Nooksack Mainstem, 4163 Grouped Data.4164

198

2.5.4.3 Sources of Water Quality Impairments 4165 4166 The water quality impairments in the Nooksack River main stem are likely due to the same 4167 sources as those mentioned for the tributaries to the main stem. The loadings from the drainages 4168 that are impacted heavily by agriculture and dairies are likely causing the fecal coliform bacteria 4169 impairments in the main stem, as well as the elevated levels of nutrients that have been observed. 4170 4171 Other Specific Sources of fecal coliform bacteria from Joy (2000): 4172 4173 Animal Feeding Operations (AFOs) 4174 Direct waste discharges 4175 Livestock in river 4176 Dairy Discharges 4177 Poor manure application practices 4178

Hobby farms 4179 Sediment storage and resuspension 4180 Septic system failure 4181 Urban /rural storm runoff 4182 Wildlife 4183 Inadequate disinfection at WWTPs 4184 4185

Strong correlations between suspended solids and turbidity have been established, indicating that 4186 large fractions of the suspended solids are colloidal in nature with likely sources in the glacial 4187 tills and fine sediment higher in the watershed. The small amount of attenuation of suspended 4188 solids between North Cedarville and Brennan supports this assessment. 4189

4190

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