ISSUES IN AFRICAS POPULATIONLECTURE TWO

Recap of previous lectureGeneral Introduction

Rationale and objectives of the course

Basic Demographic Concepts

Todays lecture

General Features of Sub-Saharan African Populations

Population Patterns and dynamics of Sub-Saharan African Populations

Learning ObjectivesAt the end of the lecture, students should be able to identify and explain the key factors that distinguish African populations from other populations.

Explain population patterns and their dynamics in African populations Fertility patterns Mortality patterns Migration patterns

Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa as a geographical term refers to the area of the African continent which lies south of the Sahara.

Demographically, all countries of Africa except the northern African countries of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Western Sahara.

What is the demographic status of DR Congo and Guinea

SizesCompositionsDistributionsDensitiesGrowthFertilityMortalityMigrationSexAgeOccupationIncome levels

The general features of sub-Saharan AfricaA predominantly black race

The poorest region of the world, and contains of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) of the world

Worlds fastest growing population

Features

Concentration of population in countries and geographical areas that are rich with natural resources or have better economic opportunities.

Patterns and Trends of the Population of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

The patterns and trends of any population depends on its three components:FertilityMortalityMigration

The processes of the three components are determined bybiological/natural, social cultural factors

This results in different patterns (way of movement) and trends (prevailing tendency) of population over time and space

Population Patterns and Trends in SSA

SSA has a total population of 865 million in 2010

The most populous countries are: Nigeria158.3 mEthiopia85.0 m Congo DR67.8 m South Africa 49.9 mTanzania 45 m Kenya 40 m Uganda33.4 m Ghana24 m

Africas population will reach 1.2 b in 2025 and 2b in 2050 when its share of total world population will be 29% compared with 9% in 1950.

Does Africa have the resources to meet the needs of the additional population?

Economic growth rate has to be three times that of population growth for any country to be able to experience economic development. For example, economic growth rate must be 9% if population growth rate is 3% per annum.

So the inequality can be used to explain Africas underdevelopment.

But there is evidence from research and other sources which indicate that population is not the only factor responsible for the lack of development or poverty in Africa.

Population Patterns and Trends in SSA

Children (< 15 years) formed between 45 and 50% of total national populations in most SSA countries until the last decade

Presently children (< 15 years) form 43% of the population of SSA

The percentage of the population of SSA aged 65+ years is presently 3%.

SSA has a young population with potential of growing fast into the future; it has population momentum

A major implication is the need to provide health and educational infrastructure and services for children and the young people in SSA

Population momentumPopulation momentumrefers topopulation growthat the national level which would occur even if levels of childbearing immediately declined to replacement level.

For countries with above-replacement fertility (greater than 2.1 children per woman), population momentum represents natural increase to the population.

For below-replacement countries, momentum corresponds to continued population decline.

With respect to high-fertility countries in the developing world, population momentum instructs us that these countries will continue to grow despite large and rapid declines in fertility.

Second with respect to lowest-low fertility countries in Europe, momentum implies that these countries may experience population decline even if they bring their fertility levels up to replacement.

In fact, population momentum can become negative if fertility rates are under replacement for long enough; in coming decades, for example, some Eastern European countries would show population shrinkage even if their birth rates recovered to replacement level.

1.Fertility Patterns and Trends in SSAUntil the late 1980s most SSA countries had Total Fertility Rate (TFR) between 6 and 8 and CBR between 40 and 50 per thousand population. In 2010, TFR ranges from 2 to 7 in the region; In 2013, TFR is 5.2 in SSAGhanas TFR in 2013 is 4.2

In 2013, CBR is 39 per thousand population for SSA GH is 33/1000

Teenage pregnancy or early childbearing is hugely prevalent in SSA because of low level of school enrolment rate and high rate of school drop-out rate among girls.

In Ghana, for example, 13% of all girls aged 15-19 years have begun childbearing, according to the 2008 GDHS; the percentage is 30.9% among those with no formal education and 1.3% among those with secondary education

Note therefore formal education reduces early childbearing

More investment in formal education up to secondary school level, especially for girls, can reduce fertility and rapid population growth rate further.

2.Mortality Patterns and Trends in SSAMortality levels have declined in SSA over the past four decades.

The rate of decline slowed down during the last decade in many countries due mainly to economic crisis, increasing poverty, and other factors.

Infant, Child and Maternal Mortality are the major health problems facing SSA

IMR (2013), 73 per thousand in SSA48/1000 for all Less Developed Countries (LDCs) 5/1000 for More Developed Countries (MDCs)

HIV/AIDS is also a major health problem in AfricaIn 20134.9% in SSA, 0.4% in MDCs

HIV/AIDS in Africa

SSA has the greatest burden of HIV/AIDS

The burden of HIV/AIDS is greatest in Eastern and Southern Africa

Some SSA countries have more than 20% of their adult population aged 15- 49 years living with HIV/AIDS: Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland

Non-communicable diseases have also posed a serious problem to most economies in SSA.

SSAs Distinctive Population Features I SSAs population features are distinct, compared to the rest of the world:

All major world regions have experienced Demographic Transition (fertility and mortality decline)

But many sub-Saharan African countries still have high fertility levels

TFR is still well above 5.0 in many sub-Saharan African countries

However, a few countries (Ghana, Kenya, Zimbabwe, South Africa, etc) have experienced decline in their fertility levels.

Ghanas TFR dropped from 6.4 at the 1988 GDHS to 4.0 (2008 GDHS).

SSA has also experienced appreciable drop in mortality levels but the decline has not been impressive in recent times in many countries

Some countries experienced reversals in mortality decline

Some countries had reversals and then decline again, eg. Ghana.

Many factors are responsible for changes in the rate of mortality decline.

Findings of some studies show:

Womens maternal and occupational role conflicts account for inadequate care for children

The consequent high levels of malnutrition, morbidity and mortality

SSAs Distinctive Population Features II Fertility decline begun to be observed in SSA about two decades ago

A number of factors are associated with the decline:Maternal educationModern contraceptionModernization, particularly urbanization and increasing standard of living and socio-cultural transformationCost of schooling for childrenEconomic hardship

But the population features of SSA are still different from those of the More Developed Countries (MDCs)

Population Patterns and Trends in MDCs In 2013 average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 1.6 in MDCs and 3.0 in the Less Developed Countries (LDCs)

Low birth rates is a problem in many MDCs

Most MDCs have cylindrical population pyramids with population trends that show possibility of population decline

Countries in SSA have broad-based population pyramids, indicating that they have population momentum and potential to grow even when replacement level fertility is attained

Some MDCs have aging population problems eg. France, Spain, and Northern Italy have 24% of their population aged 65+ years; they have many aged people who need to be cared for

Population decline will continue in MDCs and by 2050 the developed world will have only 14% of the total world population compared to 19% in 2007

The populations of MDCs are old while those of SSA countries are young

Most populous countries

Country2011 Population (millions)2013 Population (millions)1China1,4361,3572India1,2411,2773United states3123164Indonesia2382495Brazil1971966Pakistan1771917Nigeria1621748Bangladesh1511579Russia14314310Japan128127

Most populous 2050

Country Population ( millions)1India1,6922China1,3133Nigeria4334United states4235Pakistan 3146Indonesia 3097Bangladesh2268Brazil 2239Ethiopia17410Philippines150

Countries with the youngest population 2011.

Country% ages < 151Niger48.92Uganda48.33Mali47,64Angola 47.35Zambia46.56Burundi46.37Congo, dem.rep.46.08Mozambique45.39Chad45.310Burkina Faso45.2

Countries with the oldest population, 2011

Oldest% ages 65+1Japan23.22Germany20.73Italy20.24Greece18.95Sweden18.56Portugal17.97Bulgaria17.78Austria 17.69Finland 17.510Latvia17.4

Population clock 2011

WorldMDCLDCPopulation6,986,951,0001,241,580,0005,745,371.000

Births perYear139,558,00014,070,000125,488,000382,35138,548343,803day26627239minute

Deaths peryear56,611,00012,201,00044,410,000day155,,09933,427121,671minute1082384Natural increase (births-deaths) peryear82,947,0001,869,00081,078,000227,2525,121222,132day1584154minute

Infants deaths peryear6,078,00077,0006,001,00016,65221116,441day120.111minute

Population clock 2013

WORLD POPULATION

POP MID-2011 (MILLIONS)BIRTHS PER 1,000 POPULATIONDEATHS PER 1,000 POPULATIONRATE OF NATURAL INCREASE %NET MIGRATION RATE PER 1,000WORLD6,9872081.2 -MORE DEV.1,24211100.22LESS DEV.5,7452281.4-1LESS DEV (EXCL.CHINA)4,4002581.7-1LEAST DEV86135112.4-1AFRICA1,05136122,4-1SUB-SAH, AFRICA88338132.6-1N. AFRICA2132561.8-1

WORLD POPULATION

PROJECTED POPULATION (MILLION)2050 POPULATION AS A MULTIPLE OF 2011MID 2025MID-2050WORLD8,0849,5871.4MORE DEV.1,2901,3331.1LESS DEV.6,7948,2541.4LESS DEV. (EXCL. CHINA)5,3906,9421.6LEAST DEV.1,1761,8262.1AFRICA1,4442,3002.2SUB-SAH.AFRICA1,2452,0692.3N. AFRICA2613231.5

WORLD POPULATION

INFANT MORTALITY RATESTOTAL FERTILITY RATESPERCENTAGE OF POPULATION(AGES)< 1565+WORLD442.5278MORE DEV.51.71616LESS DEV.482.6296LESS DEV. (EXCL. CHINA)523.0335LEAST DEV.764.5413AFRICA744.7414SUB-SAH. AFRICA805.2433N. AFRICA332.9315

WORLD POPULATION

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEAR)PERCENT URBANBOTH SEXESMALEFEMALEWORLD70687251MORE DEV.78748175LESS DEV68667046LESS DEV. (EXCL. CHINA)66646844LEAST DEV59576028AFRICA58565937SUB- SAH. AFRICA55535637N. AFRICA71697351

HIV

PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION WITH HIV/ AIDS ( 15-49)20012009WORLD0.80.8MORE DEVELOPED0.30.4LESS DEVELOPED-0.9LESS DEV. (EXCL. CHINA)1.41.2LEAST DEVELOPED2.72.5AFRICA4.84.3SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA5.95.0NORTHERN AFRICA0.10.3

CONTRACEPTIVE USE AMONG MARRIED WOMEN

PERCENTAGE OF MARRIED WOMEN 15-49 USING CONTRACETION.ALL METHODSMODERN METHODSWORLD6155MORE DEVELOPED7262LESS DEVELOPED5954LESS DEV. (EXCL. CHINA)5144LEAST DEVELOPED2925AFRICA2925SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA2319NORTHERN AFRICA4943

Recap of lecturePatterns and trends of SSA populationsFertility patternsMortality patternsMigrationSSA populationsA predominantly black raceThe poorest region of the world, and contains of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) of the worldFast unprecedented growth rateWorlds fastest growing populationConcentration of population in countries and geographical areas that are rich with natural resources or have better economic opportunities.

Distinguishing features of SSA populationschildren (< 15 years) form 43% of the population of SSAthe population of SSA aged 65+ years is presently 3%it has population momentumimplication on the need to provide health and educational infrastructure and services for children and the young people

High fertilityTFR ranges from 2 to 7 in the regionCBR is 39 per thousand population Teenage pregnancy or early childbearing is hugely prevalent

General Mortality declinesInfant, Child and Maternal Mortality - major health problemsIMR in sSA 81 per thousand live births in 2010; 50 for all LDCs; and 6 for MDCs.

Next lectureMigration and urbanisation

Most of the facts and figures from 2013 World Population Data Sheet

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