27-day cycles in human mortality: traute and bernhard dull¨3al-farabi kazakh national university,...

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27-day cycles in human mortality:Traute and Bernhard D ull

F. Halberg1, N. Dull-Pfaff2, L. Gumarova1,3, T. A. Zenchenko4, O. Schwartzkopff1, E. M. Freytag5,J. Freytag5, and G. Cornelissen1

1Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA2Honorary member of Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA

3Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan4Space Research Institute of RAS and Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics RAS,

Pushchino, Russia5Freie Universitat Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Correspondence to:F. Halberg ([email protected])

Received: 15 December 2012 – Revised: 17 February 2013 – Accepted: 8 March 2013 – Published: 8 April 2013

Abstract. This tribute to her parents by one co-author (NDP) is the fruit of a more than a decade-long searchby the senior author (FH) for the details of the lives of Bernhard and Gertraud (“Traute”) Dull. These pioneersstudied how space/terrestrial weather may differentially influence human mortality from various causes, the 27-day mortality pattern being different whether death was from cardiac or respiratory disease, or from suicide.FH is the translator of personal information about her parents provided by NDP in German. Figuratively, healso attempts to “translate” the Dulls’ contribution in the context of the literature that had appeared before theirwork and after their deaths. Although the Dulls published in a then leading journal, among others (and FH hadre-analyzed some of their work in a medical journal), they were unknown to academies or libraries (whereFH had inquired about them). The Dulls thoroughly assembled death certificates to offer the most powerfulevidence for an effect of solar activity reflected in human mortality, as did others before them. They wentseveral steps further than their predecessors, however. They were the first to show possibly differential effectsof space and/or Earth weather with respect to suicide and other deaths associated with the nervous and sensorysystems vs. death from cardiac or respiratory disease as well as overall death by differences in the phase of acommon 27-day cycle characterizing these mortality patterns. Furthermore, Bernhard Dull developed tests ofhuman visual and auditory reaction time to study effects of weather and solar activity, publishing a book (hisprofessorial dissertation) on the topic. His unpublished finding of an increased incidence of airplane crashes inassociation with higher solar activity was validated after his death, among others, by Tatiana Zenchenko andA. M. Merzlyi.

1 Preamble

We pay an overdue tribute to Bernhard and Gertraud(“Traute”) Dull, who documented an effect of solar-terrestrialweather on human mortality conceptually (Fig. 1, left sec-tion; our meta-analysis is in the right section) with thor-oughly collected and analyzed data, using methods more re-liable than the Pearson product-moment correlation, as is of-ten done when dealing with periodic variables. We honor theDulls since we found only a biographic and literary dictio-

nary of the exact sciences that has only two brief and insuffi-cient entries about them:

– (Poggendorf VIIa, 1956) Dull, Bernhard Geophysics.1927 stud U Innsbruck, Berlin, Kiel, Rostock; 32 Dr.phil U Rostock (G. Falkenberg); 42 Doz. Geophysics &cosmic physics U Frankfurt; on leave at this time in SanFrancisco/Calif., USA (his communication) Born 1908July 3, Kuestrin. Publications are listed thereafter.

Published by Copernicus Publications.

48 F. Halberg et al.: Human mortality and the cosmos: Bernhard and Traute Dull 26

E:\ger\Papers\Dull\Revised\p2Duell.docE:\ger\Papers\Dull\rDuell.doc Saturday, March 16, 2013Tuesday, January 22, 2013 21:31:3712:17:32

Figure 1 Figure 1. With data from Dull and Dull taken off their published graph (Dull and Dull, 1935a), summarizing the daily incidence of mortalityfrom neural and mental disease and from suicides in relation to “electro-invasion” by superposed epochs over 67 solar rotation cycles between1928 and 1932 (left), we find a maximal cross-correlation at a 1-day lag (right). By electro-invasion, the authors referred to “short-lived”eruptions on the surface of the Sun (M-regions of the Sun, presumably corresponding to what is now known as coronal mass ejections), asdefined by Bartels (1932). The electrical particles ejected by these solar phenomena, when they reach Earth, elicit electron invasions, theextent of which is characterized by the extent of disturbance of the electromagnetic field.© Halberg.

– (Poggendorf VIII part 2 1/2 2000 lists no publications,a shorter entry & the note that more information is notavailable.)

2 Biography

Elaborating on prior (Halberg et al., 2001a) and recent(Schwartzkopff et al., 2012) re-analyses (Fig. 1), we herepresent a pioneer pair of scientists, reminding us of other co-operating couples like those who co-discovered radioactiv-ity (Pierre and Marie Curie) or gave their name to a sunspotminimum (Edward Walter Maunder and Annie Scott DillMaunder).

Max Karl Bernhard Dull was born on 3 July 1908 inKuestrin, Germany (now Kostrzyn, Poland), as one of ninesons of the chemist Dr. Friedrich Georg Dull and his wifeErnestine Friedericke Karoline, born Freiin von Seckendorff-Aberdar. Early in life he showed an interest in radio andtelegraphy and more broadly in wireless communications.Throughout his life, he loved to travel. In the summer of1926, at 18 yr of age, he traveled by train to Constantino-ple (now Istanbul) and reported his experiences in the localGerman press.

He studied meteorology, physics, geography, astronomyand mathematics at the universities of Innsbruck, Berlin, Kieland Rostock. He received a PhD in Rostock with the disser-tation entitled, “A new theory to explain the transient appear-ance of nightly disturbances in wireless communications, in

the context of extensive investigations of the influence ofsunspots upon the atmosphere of the Earth”. This topic ledto his lifetime interest in how solar activity affects humanphysiology and pathology, a topic dealt with in broad termsby Yohsuke Kamide (2005). On the basis of measurementsof disturbances presumably in radio communications, madein Abisko, Sweden, and much additional material from otherparts of Europe, Traute and Bernhard Dull found an asso-ciation of sunspots, geomagnetics and disturbances in radiocommunications on Earth, and concurrently noted the influ-ence of solar activity exerted upon the appearance of northernlights and certain phenomena in terrestrial weather (Dull andDull, 1934a).

In September 1932 Bernhard Dull married Gertraud(Traute) Elisabeth Auguste Mehlitz (Fig. 2), whom he hadknown already in Kuestrin and who had moved with her par-ents to Berlin, where her father was an engineer at Siemens.Traute had been educated in the arts and served in that ca-pacity, as seen in Fig. 3 (top). As an assistant in computa-tions and graphing, she played the role of a figurative “per-sonal computer” in the pre-computer era (Fig. 3, bottom).In the winter of 1932–1933, the couple was in Akureyri, Ice-land, observing northern lights and investigating their associ-ation with Earth’s magnetism. Bernhard made measurementsof visual and auditory reaction times that he believed wereinfluenced by space/terrestrial weather, using instruments hefabricated there and subsequently (Fig. 4) (Dull, 1941). Con-firmation of his work stems, in part, from our subsequent

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F. Halberg et al.: Human mortality and the cosmos: Bernhard and Traute Dull 49 27


Figure 2

Figure 2. Traute and Bernhard Dull, a gifted couple of scientistswhose early work discussed, with data stacked over 68 consecutive27-day cycles, the differential associations of helio- and geomag-netism with mortality from mental illness vs. vascular, respiratoryand overall mortality.

demonstration that the time structure (in the frequency rangeof 1 cycle in 2.5 yr to 3 cycles per year) of 1 min time estima-tion was more similar to that of solar wind speed and that ofthe antipodal geomagnetic indexaa than the time structuresof the two physical variables with each other (Fig. 5; Halberg,2011). Meanwhile, at a time when photography left muchto be desired, Traute painted the local scenery, the northernlights in particular, in watercolor at the start and in oil there-after (Fig. 3, top).

The Dulls went to Copenhagen from April to June 1933and to Zurich from February to April 1934 to collect andevaluate meteorological data and thousands of death certifi-cates (Dull and Dull, 1934b), assessed in detail elsewhere(Schwartzkopff et al., 2012; cf. Halberg, 2011; Halberg etal., 2011, 2012). Their medical-statistical investigations werealigned with solar physical observations and led to thoroughpublications during the span from 1934 to 1941, includingreviews that constitute a treasure for historians (B. Dull andT. Dull, 1938).

The data collected by the Dulls between 1 January 1928and 31 December 1932 are displayed in Fig. 6a–c, stackedover 68 consecutive 27-day solar rotation cycles. Bartels’numbers are on the abscissa. Patterns of relative sunspotnumbers (Fig. 6a, row 1) and worldwide magnetic charac-ters (Fig. 6a, row 2) can thus be readily compared with theaverage daily incidence of mortality from different causesassessed separately for each day of the 27-day Bartels cy-cle after stacking. Patterns are shown for mortality attributedto nervous and sensory system diseases (Fig. 6a, row 3),suicides (Fig. 6a, row 4), mortality from diseases of bloodcirculation (Fig. 6a, row 5), and from respiratory diseases(Fig. 6a, row 6), as well as from all causes (Fig. 6a, row 7).Likewise, the 27-day pattern in auroral character (Fig. 6b,top) can readily be compared with that of cardiovascularmortality in Copenhagen (Fig. 6b, bottom), while the latter(Fig. 6c, bottom) is also aligned with cardiovascular mortal-

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Figure 3 Figure 3. Northern lights in Iceland, painted by Traute Dull (top).She is also seen as an assistant carrying out computations (bottom).

ity in Zurich during the same span (Fig. 6c, top). A clear27-day cycle can be seen by the naked eye for all variables.Maxima in worldwide magnetic characters are delayed by acouple of days while auroral character is in phase with re-spect to relative sunspot numbers. A similar pattern in mor-tality from cardiovascular disease is observed in Zurich andCopenhagen, peaking about 8 days after the maximum insolar activity. As compared to peak mortality from cardio-vascular diseases, deaths attributed to nervous and sensorysystem diseases peak earlier and deaths from respiratory dis-eases peak later, as seen from dots above the curves’ firstmaximum in Fig. 6a.

The presence of a shared about 27-day cycle in sunspots,geomagnetic activity, and mortality from various causes at-tests to an influence of space/terrestrial weather on humanpathology. Differences in the times of maxima of the 27-daypatterns of mortality from different causes indicate differ-ences in the response from different physiological functions(different organs) to space/terrestrial weather.

Before the Dulls, in 1922, two French physicians coop-erating with a physicist had also observed that the inci-dence of minor and grave diseases was higher at times with

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Figure 4

Figure 4. With the technology of his era, Bernhard Dull tried to develop a test system for human reaction time that he believed wasinfluenced by space weather. The reason for his work is confirmed by the subsequent demonstration that human time estimation, by thecriterion of shared frequencies, more than matches, in its association with either helio- or geomagnetism, the accepted association of the twomagnetisms with each other (by statistically significant odds ratios, Fig. 5) (Halberg, 2011).

many sunspots (Vallot et al., 1922; Halberg et al., 2001a;Schwartzkopff et al., 2012). This is shown in Fig. 7 wherechi-squared tests validated the results. Specifically, more pa-tients sought medical advice in relation to symptoms of dis-eases of the heart, blood vessels, liver, kidney and nervoussystem on days with than on days without sunspots. Resultswere statistically significant whether only severe or all symp-toms were considered. Those included excitability, insomnia,tiredness, aches, muscle twitches, polyuria, digestive trou-bles, jitteriness, shivering, spasms, neuralgia, neural crises,asthma, dyspnea, fever, pain, vertigo, syncope, high bloodpressure, tachycardia, arrhythmia, and true angina pectoris.Several mechanisms have indeed been proposed to accountfor an effect of solar activity on the human body. Some areexerted via an influence on the weather as also shown byBernhard Dull, others involve some form of resonant absorp-tion, melatonin suppression and/or disturbances in neuronalsignaling (Palmer et al., 2006). The Dulls properly acknowl-edged much prior work also by Alexander LeonidovichChizhevsky and cited some entire paragraphs of the latter’spublication (Dull and Dull, 1939a).

During the 1930s and 1940s, Bernhard Dull worked atthe Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics of the Uni-versity of Frankfurt (with the period 1935–1936 spent atthe Kerckoff Institute in Bad Nauheim), while Traute Dullwas his scientific co-worker in experimental studies, statisti-cal computations and graphic presentations. In 1941 Bern-hard Dull completed a dissertation for his habilitation en-titled, “Determining reaction time to assess the influenceof weather and solar activity upon humans” (Fig. 4) (Dull,1941), thus receiving certification to lecture from the Univer-sity of Frankfurt. The Dulls’ classical contribution, however,

is in Fig. 6a–c (Dull and Dull, 1934a). In 1942 Bernhard Dullbecame a lecturer (Dozent) for the Faculty of Natural Scienceof Frankfurt’s Goethe University.

In 1944 and 1945 the Dulls were drafted by the Germangovernment to work for the Central Station for High Fre-quency Research of the Air Force in Leobersdorf and in Riedim Innkreis, Austria. After World War II, in March 1946Bernhard Dull was reinstated asDozentat Frankfurt Uni-versity and was offered the position of head of that depart-ment. Instead, he accepted an offer to immigrate to the UnitedStates. Traute Dull went with him as his scientific coworker,with Fort Myer, Virginia, as their first assignment. From 1946to 1949 the Dulls worked in the office of the QuartermasterGeneral of the US Army in Washington, DC.

Their last publication appeared in 1948. It dealt withchanges in barometric pressure related to what they call “so-lar particle invasions and solar ultraviolet invasions”, fo-cusing on “those different kinds of solar-radiation eruptionswhich are known to influence the ionosphere”. “Particle inva-sions” are defined as being generated by eruptive processesin the so-called M-regions of the Sun (Bartels, 1932). Theyare not closely connected with sunspots, and “the Earth is af-fected by these ‘invasions’ only if the place of the M-regionsis situated in the vicinity of that point where the line connect-ing the center of the Sun with the center of the Earth crossesthe Sun’s surface” (Dull and Dull, 1948). In data from all 9stations examined (in De Bilt, Karlsruhe, Potsdam, Vienna,Breslau, Koenigsberg, Warsaw, Lemberg, and Kiev), the sea-level barometric pressure was lower than normal after thedays when the ionosphere was particularly disturbed, with aminimum value 3 days after, and higher than normal after the




Supplement Figure A Figure 5. Some inferentially statistically validated congruences ofhuman somatic and mental functions with the environment, gaugedby the antipodal geomagnetic disturbance value (aa) (top) and so-lar wind speed (SWS) (bottom). While limited to a single clini-cally healthy case (R.B.S., a man aging during the study from 20to 60 yr of age), the number of congruences found for the esti-mation of 1 min and for mood in the spectral range investigated(from one cycle in 2.5 yr to 3 cycles per year) more than equals thatof the known association of helio- and geomagnetism. When con-gruence is assessed by means of the odds ratio based on the non-central hypergeometric distribution, mental functions show highercongruence than somatic functions.P values are based on the non-central Fisher hypergeometric distribution, with 95 % CIs (confi-dence intervals) computed using Fisher’s exact test. DBP: diastolicblood pressure, Temp: oral temperature, HR: heart rate, SBP: sys-tolic blood pressure, 1 MTE: 1 min time estimation. SBP approxi-mates higher congruence with environment of mental (red) (versussomatic, green) functions that compare favorably with congruenceof aaversus SWS (blue, bottom right).© Halberg.

days when the ionosphere was particularly undisturbed, witha maximum value 3 to 4 days after (Dull and Dull, 1948).

In 1949, the Dulls moved to San Francisco, where Bern-hard worked as a private scientist and Traute became assis-tant preparer of exhibits at the California Academy of Sci-ences, where she used her artistic talent in many ways, tomake illustrations, exhibits and a TV series, “Science in Ac-tion”. Traute Dull’s pictures of auroras prompted a specialexhibit at the academy.

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Figure 5A Figure 6a. Time courses during 68 stacked consecutive 27-daysolar rotations in the span from 1 January 1928 to 31 December1932, as superposed epochs for two environmental (top) and fivebiospheric variables (bottom; mortalities in Copenhagen), the lattershowing two peaklets in rows 3 and 4 and one peak in rows 5–7. That the magnetisms of the Sun and the Earth differ in phase,and that so do various human mortalities, is apparent from Ta-ble 1, from overlapping sets of CIs (95 % confidence intervals) ofthe acrophases (phase of maximum of the cosine curve fitted to thedata),ϕs, i.e., of peaks in 27-day cosine curves best approximatingall data and providing numerical estimates of theϕ and its uncer-tainty. The variables are 1. relative sunspot numbers; 2. worldwidemagnetic characters; 3. 3720 deaths of children and adults (C+A)and males (M) and females (F) attributed to nervous and sensorysystem diseases; 4. 849 suicides (A, M+F); 5. 8099 deaths (C+A,M+F) from diseases of blood circulation, also including marasmussenilis (A, M+F); 6. 4579 deaths (C+A, M+F) from respiratory dis-eases; 7. 35244 deaths (C+A, M+F) from all causes (other thanhomicide). Dots above each curve indicate the day the maximumoccurred during the Bartels cycle. From Dull and Dull (1934a).




Figure 5B Figure 6b. Time courses during 68 stacked solar rotations between1 January 1928 and 31 December 1932 in auroral character (top)and 8099 cardiovascular deaths of children and adults, both maleand female, in Copenhagen. From Dull and Dull (1934a).

At the end of 1954, Bernhard Dull returned to Europe.Traute, who had become a US citizen, followed in Novem-ber 1956. They settled near Lake Constance, with Traute firstemployed by the Allensbach Institute, then in 1964 taking ajob with a publisher. According to their daughter, BernhardDull spent over 10 yr evaluating internationally recorded air-plane crashes and their relation to solar activity, finding anassociation of the latter with an increase in the former. Hisunpublished results were confirmed by a subsequent study(Zenchenko and Merzlyi, 2008). Bernhard Dull died on 21November 1983 at 75 yr of age from a myocardial infarction.Traute Dull died on 24 April 1999 at age 90.

3 Discussion

The Dulls’ daughter (NDP) takes credit for a German text onthe life of her parents, of which much of the foregoing is analmost literal translation. NDP tells us that her father was apacifist who, already at the start of his studies in Berlin in1927, was part of the Universala Esperanto Asocio, a world-wide Esperanto federation for international understanding.He abhorred the atrocities of National Socialism and lostJewish colleagues whom he had befriended, and lived in con-tinuous fear of denunciation since he had held a critical dis-tance from the Nazi regime and was a determined opponentof prescribed political rituals. Hence he took the opportu-nity to immigrate to the US, although he never felt quite athome there. The written German report provided by one of us(NDP) was translated by the senior author (FH). Two moreof us (JF and EMF) found NDP, a task FH had pursued un-successfully for many years, since he re-analyzed the Dulls’data (Halberg et al., 2001a; Schwartzkopff et al., 2012).

The bibliography of the Dulls speaks best for them (Dull,1941; B. Dull and T. Dull, 1938, 1948; T. Dull and B. Dull,1934a, b, 1935a, b, 1936a, b, 1937a, b, 1938a–c, 1939a–d).

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Figure 5C Figure 6c. Time courses of cardiovascular deaths, 3381 in Zurich(top) and 8099 in Copenhagen (bottom), during 68 consecutive,stacked, separate 27-day sections of the time series from 1 January1928 to 31 December 1932. From Dull and Dull (1934a).

They painstakingly showed that space/terrestrial weather af-fected human suicide, as well as many other aspects of hu-man mortality, as illustrated in Fig. 6a–c. It is further to theircredit that they were the first to thoroughly document a dif-ference in the 27-day cyclic mortality pattern between deathfrom cardiac or respiratory disease or overall mortality onthe one hand and death from mental disease or suicide on theother hand. This is a major step beyond the contribution oftwo physicians, Sardou and Faure, who with Vallot, the as-tronomer, meteorologist and generous supporter of research,found that severe and fatal illnesses as well as common headcold and other aches were more frequent when sunspots werenumerous (Vallot et al., 1922). Their findings are illustratedin Fig. 7. Whether all or only severe symptoms are consid-ered, ourχ2 tests show that they occurred more often on dayswhen sunspots were present than absent. The Dulls delvedonly into 27-day cycles and realized the importance of otherthen known periodicities.

A cycle of 27 days is well known, and many databasesof space/terrestrial weather variables include a time code interms of the 27-day Bartels cycle, even though spectral anal-ysis of sunspots or geomagnetic indices suggests that the pe-riod may differ slightly from precisely 27 days, in keepingalso with differences in solar rotation duration as a functionof solar latitude. The fact that clear 27-day patterns are foundby stacking over 68 consecutive cycles, the slight departurefrom 27 days of the exact periodicity notwithstanding, speaksfor a robust rather than weak influence of space/terrestrialweather on human mortality.

The Dulls were scholars in whatever they wrote. Theyproperly cited work done before them, referring notably toAlexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky in their papers. By 1934,their meticulous investigations established important influ-ences of space/terrestrial weather on human mortality. Forthis, they focused on the Bartels cycle, using the robust


F. Halberg et al.: Human mortality and the cosmos: Bernhard and Traute Dull 53

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Figure 6

Figure 7. Analysis of what Joseph Vallot, a thoughtful physicist and philanthropist, reported as an association of symptoms with solaractivity over 90 yr ago. Specifically, the incidence of clinical symptoms of diseases of the heart, blood vessels, liver, kidney and nervoussystem, ranging from mild to severe (such as excitability, insomnia, tiredness, aches, muscle twitches, polyuria, digestive troubles, jitteriness,shivering, spasms, neuralgia, neural crises, asthma, dyspnea, fever, pain, vertigo, syncope, high blood pressure, tachycardia, arrhythmia, andtrue angina pectoris) is compared between days when sunspots were present or absent. Results from ourχ2 tests confirm that symptomswere more likely to occur on days with than on days without sunspots, whether all symptoms or only the more severe ones (according to theoriginal authors) were considered. Data from Vallot et al. (1922).© Halberg.

method of superposed epochs to analyze their data. Theircontributions were in keeping with earlier work by others(Vallot et al., 1922; Sardou and Faure, 1927; Chizhevsky,1930a, b, 1931a, b, 1934, 1976; Schostakowitsch, 1931;Faure, 1932; see also Gnevyshev and Novikova, 1972).Nevertheless, some 40 yr later, Feinleib et al. (1975) andLipa et al. (1976) failed to find an effect of space/terrestrialweather on the incidence of cardiovascular disease. Thefact that their properly qualified negative results stemmedfrom abundant data, analyzed with rigorous inferential statis-tics, raises important questions about the periodic and non-stationary nature of the phenomena involved (Cornelissen etal., 2002; Halberg et al., 2003, 2011, 2012), and the need tobetter understand underlying mechanisms.

To conclude, Bernhard and Traute Dull also realized theimportance of cycles in their publications, although they didnot delve into most of them. In the last paragraph of their1938 review article they wrote, “That there are very impor-tant daily rhythmic and annually rhythmic changes in the re-sponse of the human organism to exogenous physical stim-uli is here only alluded to. These questions require, becauseof their importance for the clinician and the practical physi-cian, an extensive special consideration.” Many more pat-terns, i.e., a broad spectrum of cycles, characterize mortalityupon analyses of Chizhevsky’s data, to cite just one exam-ple (Gumarova et al., 2013). This is illustrated in Fig. 8 andTable 1, where results from re-analyses of Chizhevsky’s dataon diphtheria and cholera are reported and compared withthose of shorter records on mortality from myocardial infarc-tion and sudden cardiac death in several different geographiclocations. In each case, the cycle’s period length is shownwith its 95 % confidence interval (in parentheses) derived by

nonlinear least squares, using Marquardt’s algorithm (Mar-quardt, 1963).

Bernhard Dull’s unpublished work on a positive associa-tion between the incidence of airplane crashes and solar ac-tivity is confirmed in Fig. 9a–c by one of us (Zenchenko andMerzlyi, 2008; cf. Zenchenko et al., 2005). In Fig. 9a, avi-ation accidents are plotted by superposed epochs in relationto a reversal of the interplanetary magnetic field’s polarity(day 0), showing a higher incidence on days of a reversal.Similar results are shown in Fig. 9b and c for the incidenceof human (solid lines) and mechanical (dashed lines) errorsin relation to a reversal of the polarity of the interplanetarymagnetic field (Fig. 9b) or in relation to days of high so-lar wind density (Fig. 9c), maxima also observed on daysof a reversal (Fig. 9b) or on days of high solar wind density(Fig. 9c). Statistical analyses of aviation incident and disasterdynamics with heliophysical factors thus show that aviationaccidents are more frequent at the time of Earth’s passageof sector boundaries of the interplanetary magnetic field andall times of a sharp rise of solar wind density, the phenom-ena that result in changing the oscillation spectrum of Earth’smagnetosphere, with a sharp increase of geomagnetic activ-ity (Schrijver and Siscoe, 2010). Other scholarly investiga-tions of the same topic are based on correlations (cf., e.g.,Stoupel et al., 2009). Correlations without considering cy-cles in examining associations in phenomena characterizedby rhythms can be spurious, with statistically significant pos-itive or negative correlation or no correlation found, depend-ing solely on the phase relation between the two variablessharing the same periodicity (Fig. 10; for a review of corre-lations between solar activity and weather and climate, seeHerman and Goldberg, 1978). Likewise, in the presence of




Geographic differences in signatures of space and earth weather in communicable (on top) and non-communicable (bottom) disease 1823-1926 and 1999-2003 respectively.

Diphteria, Cholera,

Sudden Cardiac Death, Myocardial Infarction*

* longer observation span reveals a near-transyear, in addition to a calendar-year and a far-transyear component

Figure 7A

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Figure 7B Figure 8. Many different cycles actually characterize mortality from diphtheria in Europe (top), cholera in Russia and India (middle), andoverall mortality in Russia (bottom), albeit discussed by Chizhevsky as a signature of an about 11 yr cycle (top and bottom charts). Resultson diphtheria and cholera data collected by Chizhevsky are compared with those on shorter records on mortality from myocardial infarctionand sudden cardiac death in several different geographic locations (middle chart). In each case, the length of the cycle’s period is listed withits 95 % confidence interval (in parentheses) derived by nonlinear least squares. Periods are computed according to Marquardt’s conservativemethod, except for those with an *, denoting 1-parameter limits.© Halberg.



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Figure 8 Figure 9. Superposed epochs demonstrate association of aviationaccidents(A) and events due to human error (—) vs. those due tomechanical error (- - -) (B and C) with reversals of the polarityof the interplanetary magnetic field (A andB) or at high densitiesof solar wind speed(C). (A) Distribution of the total number ofaviation accidents in the neighborhood of the times observed onEarth when the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)reverses during the span from 1964–2005 (Zenchenko et al., 2005).The likelihood that differences between the zero day and samplesfrom other days are due to chance is less than 5 %.© Zenchenko.(B) Distribution of the total number of aviation events in the neigh-borhood of dates characterized by passage of IMF sector boundariesfor the span from 1997–2005, the solid line (—) for human error, thedashed line (- -) for mechanical failure-related events (Zenchenkoand Merzlyi, 2008).© Zenchenko.(C) Distribution of the totalnumber of aviation events (N) in the neighborhood dates of highdensities of solar wind (n>10 cm−3) for the span from 1997–2005,the solid line (—) for human error, the dashed line (- -) for mechani-cal failure-related events (Zenchenko and Merzlyi, 2008). Courtesyof Tatiana A. Zenchenko.

low-frequency cycles, focus on spans shorter than the periodlength can lead to erroneously finding statistically significantincreasing or decreasing trends as a function of time (Halberget al., 2001b). Focus on periodicity and on its uncertainties(Marquardt, 1963; Halberg, 1980) is desirable1. An associa-tion, including correlation, based on characteristics of peri-ods may avoid blunders.

The Dulls introduced their major findings in Fig. 6a–c witha remark that in the history of science all phenomena of lifeon Earth have been and are determined by cosmic phenom-ena. They used the 27-day cycle as one of the solar signa-tures in the biosphere. The effects of our cosmos are non-stationary phenomena in space and time. As such, associa-tions of human pathology with space/terrestrial weather maychange in strength to the point of not being detected at certaintimes (“No” in Fig. 11), accounting perhaps for the failureof two large studies to find a correlation between geomag-netic disturbances and mortality in the United States (Fein-leib et al., 1975; Lipa et al., 1976) (Fig. 11). In Minnesota,an about 11 yr cycle in mortality from myocardial infarctionfrom 1968 to 1996 (29 yr) could be documented for the firsttwo solar activity cycles but not during the third (Cornelis-sen et al., 2002). Since associations have been found in somestudies (“Yes” in Fig. 11), even during times of minimal so-lar activity, we must learn from history so that we do notpublish observations that may apply in one geographic lo-cation in one solar cycle, but not in other locations and/orat other times. Time-varying associations revealed by alsochanging phase synchronizations and coherences (Halberget al., 2003) underlie site- and time-specific results of as-yet unknown causes. Controversy can be avoided when non-stationary time- and site-specific changes are anticipated anddocumented in time series covering the length of several crit-ical cycles characterizing the data. Certainly, we must con-sult the literature, whether or not it is in languages other thanours. We must not ignore evidence that does not fit our ob-servations. This tribute, and others to follow, honors a pair ofinvestigators who were unknown for many years in several(German and other) academic and other institutions, some-thing that this and other articles, with more detailed evidence(Halberg et al., 2001a, 2013; Schwartzkopff et al., 2012), aremeant to remedy.

1Marquardt’s algorithm (Marquardt, 1963) provides three mea-sures of uncertainty of the period estimate and of the other param-eters of the fitted model. One is an equivalent of the usual standarderror and is called the “1-parameter” approach. Another is called“conservative” in the sense that the corresponding confidence inter-vals are slightly wider than the “true” or “nonlinear” 95 % limits.The nonlinear limits, a third measure, are more complex, but gener-ally do not differ much from the more easily derived “conservative”approximation. In view of the non-stationarities of the biologicaldata analyzed, the approach called “conservative” by Marquardt isactually too liberal when underlying assumptions are violated andis here used with the desire for a more appropriate method that ac-counts for non-stationarities and their consequences.


56 F. Halberg et al.: Human mortality and the cosmos: Bernhard and Traute Dull

Table 1. Geomagnetic/geographic differences among cycles with periods in the range of 5–32 yr, characterizing the incidence of infectiousdisease (cholera, diphtheria and croup); some periods of about 17 yr.

Site Span Period (yr) (95 % CI) Amplitude (95 % CI) A (% of MESOR∗) P value

Cholera

India 1901–1961 11.668 (10.44–12.895) 70.016 (4.08, 135.95) 31 <0.05

Russia 1823–192620.71 (18.55, 22.88) 104.79 (5.69, 203.89) 95 <0.0018.9 (8.36, 9.54) 78.21 (28.2, 128.23) 71 <0.055.62 (5.45, 5.79) 98.28 (0.74, 197.3) 89 <0.005

Diphtheria

Kherson province 1874–1908 19.38 (14.53, 24.22) 31.93 (9.71, 54.15) 46 <0.005Kherson county 1874–1908 16.996 (13.83, 20.16) 12.54 (3.42, 21.67) 36 <0.001Elizavetgrad county 1874–1908 20.53 (17.23, 25.05) 27.74 (9.92, 45.56) 65 <0.005

Denmark 1860–191031.78 (25.80, 37.76) 43.91 (19.35, 68.46) 66 <0.00111.99 (10.89, 13.09) 35.77 (12.18, 59.36) 54 <0.001

Prussia 1875–1910 9.10 (6.63, 11.58) 24.27 (22.14, 70.68) 23 <0.05

Switzerland 1876–191016.98 (12.76, 21.2) 13.04 (0.04, 26.04) 36 <0.00112.01 (9.80, 14.21) 8.52 (0.22, 16.81) 23 <0.001

Scotland 1860–191026.33 (18.17, 34.30) 11.96 (0.38, 24.30) 29 <0.00112.75 (10.07, 15.42) 8.6 (0.00, 21.73) 21 <0.059.89 (8.56, 11.22) 9.94 (0.00, 23.03) 41 <0.05

Belgium 1870–191021.49 (10.02, 32.96) 12.69 (9.02, 34.41) 23 <0.00114.02 (9.27, 18.78) 12.71 (9.08, 34.50) 23 <0.001

Holland 1875–191014.02 (9.42, 18.61) 6.82 (0.00, 17.6) 27 <0.059.35 (7.64, 11.07) 8.23 (0.00, 18.48) 33 <0.05

England and Wales 1860–191029.37 (23.15, 35.59) 8.89 (4.06, 13.73) 29 <0.00117.46 (14.66, 20.26) 7.04 (1.32, 12.76) 23 0.00112.58 (10.53, 14.64) 5.10 (0.00, 11.37) 17 <0.05

Ireland 1864–1910

24.16 (10.45, 37.87) 3.21 (2.92, 9.34) 14 <0.0517.27 (7.67, 26.86) 2.29 (4.04, 8.63) 10 <0.0512.40 (9.26, 15.53) 3.62 (2.5, 9.73) 15 <0.057.84 (6.54, 9.15) 3.42 (2.76, 9.59) 14 <0.05

Romania 1886–1910 16.73 (12.66, 20.80) 9.65 (2.86, 16.45) 49 <0.001Austria 1880–1910 16.09 (7.55, 24.64) 23.66 (17.58, 64.9) 25 <0.001Italy 1887–1910 12.51 (2.66, 22.36) 9.57 (14.64, 33.77) 28 <0.001France 1889–1910 11.26 (7.056, 15.52) 13.528 (0.00, 30.624) 51 <0.05

Sweden 1861–191017.71 (15.45, 19.98) 22.00 (8.72, 35.28) 42 <0.00112.58 (10.16, 14.99) 11.89 (0.00, 28.14) 23 <0.05

∗ MESOR: Midline Estimating Statistic Of Rhythm, a rhythm-adjusted mean, usually more precise and more accurate than the arithmetic mean.

4 Summary

This tribute to a pioneer pair of scientists, Bernhard andGertraud (“Traute”) Dull, illustrates the merits of a trans-disciplinary approach. With a background in meteorology,physics, geography, astronomy and mathematics, and withthe collaboration of his talented wife, Bernhard Dull amasseddeath certificates to provide solid evidence showing the in-fluence of space/terrestrial weather on human pathology. Thehusband/wife pair did so by selecting the Bartels 27-day solarrotation period as a reference cycle to stack data on mortalitystatistics from several causes. Using superposed epoch analy-sis, they demonstrated a non-uniform, non-random pattern ofmortality incidence. Moreover, referring to the phase of max-

imal mortality incidence from various causes, they found thatsuicide and deaths related to the nervous and sensory systemspeaked at a different stage of the Bartels cycle than mortalityfrom cardiac or respiratory disease. Their work is placed inthe broader context of similar endeavors dealing with influ-ences of space/terrestrial weather on biota by their predeces-sors and the legacy they left for their followers.




Supplement Figure B

Figure 10. When two variables undergo periodic changes with the same period but different phases, the correlation coefficient yields spuriousresults, being positive when the two variables are in phase, negative when they are out of phase, and negligible when they are in quadrature.In such situations, the cross-correlation function should be used or other procedures that account for cycles instead of the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient.© Halberg.

38


Figure 9 Figure 11. Top: association of magnetic storms and mortality frommyocardial infarction (MI) not detected (“No”) in the United States(from daily data from 1962–1966 and from only monthly data up to1971) yet detected (“Yes”) in Russia (including morbidity) during3 yr in 1979–1981 (Cornelissen et al., 2002) and earlier by manyauthors (Vallot et al., 1922; Sardou and Faure, 1927; Chizhevsky,1930a, b, 1931a, b, 1934, 1976; Faure, 1932). Bottom: associationalso detected (“Yes”) in 1962–1968 in Russia and in 1974–1976 inIsrael, at a minimum of the Schwabe (about 10.5 yr) cycle, as wellas in Minnesota during 1968–1996 (horizontal arrow).© Halberg.

Acknowledgements. The authors are indebted for thoroughrefereeing to Giovanni Gregori, whereby the aim of this transdis-ciplinary presentation toward a unified history, geography, scienceand art – also illustrated by the life and legacy of the Dulls – wasbetter achieved. The paper is codedicated, by Othild Schwarzkopff,Germaine Cornelissen, Franz Halberg, the editor in chief KristianSchlegel and his close friend, Giovanni Gregori, to the memoryof Wilfried Schroder. The authors never met Wilfried in person.They appreciate that, as a historian of physics, he approached themand cooperated as a dear physicist in Germany, along with manyRussian and other physicists, leading two of us to an academy ofscience, the Leibniz Association, with which we developed, thanksto Wilfried, stronger ties than with other national and internationalacademies, which elected us as members.

Edited by: K. SchlegelReviewed by: G. P. Gregori and one anonymous referee

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