27th april,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e-newsletter by riceplus magazine

8/9/2019 27th April,2015 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletterwww.ricepluss.com

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue IApril 27, 2015


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FAO Estimates Malaysia 2014 -15 RiceImports to Increase to 1.1 Million Tons

Apr 24, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Malaysia 2014-15 (July - June)rice imports to increase to 1.1 million tons due to strong consumption demand and thegovernment's efforts to replenish stocks. In 2014, Malaysia's rice imports increased about 24%y/y from their below-average level in 2013.It estimates Malaysia's total cereal imports, includingrice, to increase about 6% to around 6.4 million from around 5.99 million tons last year.The FAOestimates Malaysia's 2015 paddy rice production at around 2.6 million tons (around 1.69 milliontons, basis milled

), slightly above last year's production of about 2.5 million tons (around 1.62 million tons, basismilled) due to favorable weather conditions and continued government support to the rice sector,


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including subsidies for agricultural inputs.USDA estimates Malaysia to produce about 2.769million tons of paddy (around 1.8 million tons, basis milled) and import around one million tonsof rice in MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015)

FAO Forecasts Laos 2015 Paddy RiceProduction to Increase 3% y/y to 3.4 MillionTonsApr 24, 2015

The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has forecasted Laos 2015 paddy rice production to increase about 3% y/y to around 3.4 million tons (around 2.1 million tons, basismilled) from an estimated 3.3 million tons (around 2 million tons, basis milled) last year.


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Planting of the 2015 main (wet) season paddy crop (May - December) will begin in mid-Mayand will continue till July.According to USDA, usually Laos imports around 10,000 tons or riceto meet the local annual consumption demand of around 1.58 million tons. However, this year,

FAO forecasts Laos to be self-sufficiency in rice production without the need to import rice.

Laos is in fact aiming to increase rice production by around one million tons and become anexporter of rice by 2015.USDA estimates Laos' MY 2013-14 (January 2014 - December 2014)

paddy rice production to increase about 5.8% to around 2.46 million tons (around 1.55 milliontons, basis milled) from an estimated 2.325 million tons (around 1.465 million tons, basis milled)in MY 2012-13. It estimates Laos to import around 10,000 tons of rice in 2014, unchanged fromlast year.

IGC Estimates 2015 Global Rice Trade at41.4 Million Tons; Slightly Down from LastyearApr 24, 2015

The International Grains Council (IGC)forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around41.4 million tons, down about 4% fromaround 43 million tons in 2014 as areduction in imports to Far Easterncountries are likely to fall by 6% y/y toaround 12.9 million tons. Shipments toSouth Asian markets such as Bangladeshand Sri Lanka are expected to decline thisyear. However, shipments to traditional

buyers, including Indonesia and thePhilippines, are likely to be significant.

The IGC expects China to remain largest importer in 2015 with about 3.9 million tons.

On the exports side, the IGC estimates Thailand to export around 11 million tons of rice andVietnam to export 6.1 million tons of rice in 2015. However, it expects India's exports to fall byabout 21% y/y to around 8.8 million tons amid falling supplies and stiff competition fromThailand, Vietnam and Pakistan.


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The IGC estimates 2014-15 global rice production at around 474 million tons, slightly downfrom around 476 million tons in 2013-14 due to an expected decline in major rice exportingcountries, including India and Thailand. It expects India's rice production to decline 3.5% y/y to

around 103 million tons. The IGC is expecting lower output in Thailand (at around 19 milliontons) due to a decline in output from off-season crop. However, the IGC is estimating U.S. production to increase about 16% to around 7.1 million tons.

It expects global rice consumption in 2014-15 to increase to around 483 million tons, up about1% from around 479 million tons in 2013-14 due to expected increased consumption in Asiancountries including India and China as well as Sub-Saharan African countries.The Councilexpects global rice ending stocks in 2014-15 to decline to about 8% to around 100 million tonsfrom around 109 million tons in the previous year. It expects inventories of major rice exportersto decline to around 30 million tons, down 20% from around 39.4 million tons last year mainly

due to higher stock depletion in India and Thailand.

Bangladesh Food Ministry Seeks ImportDuty on Rice Amid Falling Domestic PricesApr 24, 2015


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Bangladesh Food Ministry has sought for the imposition of duty on rice imports in the wake ofincreasing rice imports and falling domestic paddy and rice prices, according to localsources.The Ministry reportedly sent a letter to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) last

fortnight seeking import duty on rice in order to ensure fair price to farmers. It apprised the NBRthat the price of rice in the domestic market was declining for last couple of months due toincreasing imports from India.Currently, the government of Bangladesh imposes no duty onimports of coarse and medium quality rice, but imposes a duty of 5% on aromatic rice imports,according to local sources. Some farmers' associations are demanding for immediate impositionof duty as boro harvesting would reach its peaks shortly.

Bangladesh's private sector imported about 1.29 million tons of rice in July 1, 2014 - April 21,2015, nearly 3.5 times more than 374,560 tons of rice imported in the entire 2013-14 fiscal year(July - June) and highest in the last four years since 2010-11, according to data from the Ministry

of Food. The Ministry shows that the government has so far not imported any rice in this fiscaldespite setting a target to import about 200,000 tons of rice in the fiscal year 2014-15 toreplenish falling stocks in the country.

Farmers are deprived of decent prices during the ongoing Boro (January - May) harvest. Theyare expecting an output of around 18.9 million tons from the 2015 Boro crop, which accounts for55% of the country’s total production. Prices normally decline during the harvest time but thistime increasing imports are putting more downward pressure on the prices, say millers.According to local sources, prices of medium quality rice in India stood at about Tk 24.5-25.2

per kilogram (around $314-$323 per ton) in March 2015 compared to Tk 27 per kilogram

(around $346 per ton) of the same quality rice in Dhaka. Due to this price differential, tradershave been preferring to import medium-quality rice variety "Swarna" from India at low pricesand selling at high prices locally. However, farmers and millers are forced to lower their prices tocompete with imported rice.

The government's procurement of Boro rice from May 1, 2015 is likely to provide a cushion tofarmers against falling prices. The government is planning to procure one million tons of 2015Boro paddy and 100,000 tons of Boro rice between May 1, 2015 and August 31, 2015. It hasfixed the procurement price for paddy at Tk 22 per kilogram (around $283 per ton) and that forrice at Tk 32 per kilogram (around $412 per ton).Bangladesh produced around 34.449 milliontons of rice, basis milled, in FY 2013-14 (July - June), up about 2.7% from around 33.833million tons produced in FY 2012-13, according to the Agriculture Ministry.


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India 2014 -15 Rabi Rice Planting Reaches4.066 Million Hectares as of April 24, 2015;Down 9% from Last YearApr 24, 2015

Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around4.066 million hectares as of April 24, 2015; down about 9% from around 4.485 million hectares

planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the IndianAgriculture Ministry.The decline is reportedly due to untimely rains in some part of the rabi ricegrowing areas.

The government of India, in its second advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India'srice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04million tons, down about 3% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a


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statement from the Agriculture Ministry. It estimates around 88.02 million tons from kharif ricecrop and around 15.02 million tons from rabi rice crop.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices LookSteady ahead of Iraqi TenderApr 24, 2015

The U.S. cash market was unchanged today with very little trading to report as most sellersremain unconcerned about falling bids and limited demand despite burdensome stocks.Analystsnote that the prospect of the U.S. being awarded a piece of the latest Iraqi tender has some in theindustry hopeful that it would lead to firming prices. However, as of now, most believe that thechance is no better than 50/50.

India Develops New Protein -Rich Rice UsingHigh -Yielding Local Variety “Naveen”

Apr 24, 2015


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The Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI) has developed a protein-rich rice variety by crossing

a protein-rich germplasm with a high-yielding local rice variety called "Naveen", according tolocal sources.The Director of the CRRI told local sources that the new variety has 10.5% proteincontent, which is about 3% higher than that found in normal varieties. He noted that the newvariety is high-yielding as well as tolerant to certain diseases. He added that the scientists are

planning to increase the protein content as well as yield of the new variety by cross breeding itwith high-yielding varieties. Presently, the new variety yields about 5.5 tons per hectare and iswell-suited to grow in the Indian eastern states, said the CRRI Director.

The CRRI Director also noted that normally farmers are not that inclined to adopt such newvarieties as the yield provided by them is very low. He added that the institute is planning to

carry out an awareness drive to encourage the farmers to adopt the new protein-rich variety. Heexpressed confidence that farmers would be easily convinced as "Naveen" rice variety was quite

popular among farmers in eastern states.The new variety, which is yet to get a name, is cleared by the Variety Identification Committee under the Ministry of Agriculture. The CRRI is planningto release the new variety for cultivation within the next two months.The CRRI is also workingtowards developing flood and saline-resistant rice varieties as well. So far, the institutedeveloped 115 rice varieties, according to the CRRI Director.

Weekly Recap: Oryza White Rice IndexContinues to WeakenApr 24, 2015


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The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes,ended the week at about $409 per ton, down about $1 per ton from a week ago, down about $7

per ton from a month ago and down about $43 per ton from a year ago.The International Grains

Council (IGC) forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 41.4 million tons, down about 4%from around 43 million tons in 2014 as a reduction in imports to Far Eastern countries are likelyto fall by 6% y/y to around 12.9 million tons. Shipments to South Asian markets such asBangladesh and Sri Lanka are expected to decline this year. However, shipments to traditional


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buyers, including Indonesia and the Philippines, are likely to be significant. The IGC expectsChina to remain largest importer in 2015 with about 3.9 million tons. On the exports side, theIGC estimates Thailand to export around 11 million tons of rice and Vietnam to export 6.1million tons of rice in 2015. However, it expects India's exports to fall by about 21% y/y toaround 8.8 million tons amid falling supplies and stiff competition from Thailand, Vietnam and


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Pakistan. The IGC estimates 2014-15 global rice production at around 474 million tons, slightlydown from around 476 million tons in 2013-14 due to an expected decline in major riceexporting countries, including India and Thailand.

Thailand

Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $385 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,down about $5 per ton from a month ago, and up about $5 per ton from a year ago.A panel ofThailand’s Supreme Court Judges has decided to accept the case filed by the Office of theAttorney General against the former Commerce Minister and 20 other individuals for theiralleged corruption in G2G rice deals with two Chinese companies. The first trial will commenceon June 29.

The Commerce Minister reports that Thailand exported about 2.7 million tons of rice duringJanuary-mid-April, but exports may decline 1% y/y amid still competitions and falling prices. Thailand is targeting to export about 10 million tons of rice in 2015.

Vietnam

Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago.During the

period January 1- April 13, Vietnam exported about 1.144 million tons of rice, down about 35%from the first four months of 2014. Average rice export price so far this year is about $413 per

ton (FOB), down about 5% per ton from April 2014.The UN ’s FAO has forecasted Vietnam’s2015 rice exports to remain at last year’s below -average level of 6.5 million tons.

India

India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, downabout $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.In the firsteleven months of FY 2014-15 (April-March), India exported about 10.81 million tons of rice(basmati and non-basmati), an increase of about 8.5% from the same period in FY 2013-14.TheUN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted India’s 2015 rice exports to

decline about 18% from last year to around 9.3 million tons.

Planting for India 2014-15 rabi (secondary) rice crop (November - May) has reached around4.066 million hectares as of April 24, 2015; down about 9% from around 4.485 million hectares

planted during the same period last year, according to preliminary data released by the IndianAgriculture Ministry.The Central Rice Research Institute has developed a protein-rich ricevariety which is also high-yielding and tolerant to certain diseases.


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The Food Ministry of Bangladesh is seeking the imposition of duty on rice imports due toincreasing rice imports and falling domestic paddy and rice prices. Separately, the government ofBangladesh will provide $3.9 million to about 210,000 rice farmers in 48 districts to help them

increase the output from the ongoing Aus cropping season (February-August).

Pakistan

Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, down about $5 per ton from aweek ago, up about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $40 per ton from a yearago.Pakistan’s total exports (including basmati and non -basmati) increased sharply in March2015, after declining in January and February. Pakistan exported about 472,357 tons of rice inMarch 2015. The UN’s FAO estimate Pakistan’s FY 2014 -15 (July-June) paddy rice productionwill decline about 19% from last year to 8.437 million tons.

Central & South America

Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $550 per ton, unchanged from a week and amonth ago and down about $115 per ton from a year ago.

Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $565 per ton,down about $10 per ton from a week ago, down about $15 per ton from a month ago and downabout $60 per ton from a year ago.

U.S.

U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $485 per ton, unchanged from a week and a monthago and down about $100 per ton from a year ago.

The United States Patent and Trademark Office has awarded the inventors of the golden rice project with the 2015 Patents for Humanity award on nutrition.

Rice farmers in the state of California are facing water shortages that may reduce production in2015, following a previous reduction in 2014.

The U.S. cash market was mostly unchanged this week despite weakness in the futures market.

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery remained low this week, opening at $9.955 per cwt(about $219 per ton) on Monday morning and gaining slightly to reach a high of $10.155 per cwt(about $224 per ton) on Wednesday before continuing a downward slide toward the end of theweek. They closed the week at $9.985 per cwt (about $220 per ton).


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Other Markets

Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $435 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a

week ago, up about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $5 per ton from a year ago.

Average domestic rice prices in the Philippines showed diverse trends in March, with retail prices of both well-milled rice (WMR) and regular-milled rice (RMR) declining and wholesale prices of WMR and RMR increasing.

The Philippines first quarter paddy rice output is likely to be below the government forecast of4.59 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions, according to the Bureau of AgriculturalStatistics. The Philippines plans to import rice from Myanmar , India , and Pakistan to fulfill theincreased demand following a recent cyclone. Myanmar is expected to export around 2 million

tons of rice in FY 2015-16 (April - March), up about 11% from around 1.8 million tons exportedin FY 2013-14, the Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) was quoted as saying.

During the first three months of 2015, Madagascar imported about 200,000 tons of rice inefforts to compensate for a likely loss of expected output from cyclones that hit the major rice

producing regions since January this year.

The UN’s FAO has forecasted China ’s 2015 rice imports at around 2.7 million tons, similar tolast year’s above -average levels.

The government of Italy has allowed the temporary use of three kinds of herbicides to controlweeds in rice fields during the crop year 2014-15 (September-August).

The government of South Korea has decided to provide the increased direct subsidies to ricefarmers from this year instead of its initial plan of providing them from 2017. Separately, SouthKorea’s state -run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) has purchased 72,000tons of non-glutinous brown rice of U.S. and Chinese origins for delivery between August andSeptember. Meanwhile, the government of South Korea plans to procure 77,000 tons of locally

produced rice in May to prevent prices from falling as supplies increase.

The government of Indonesia plans to buy low quality rice from farmers in attempts to stabilizerice prices.

Rice growers in Australia are confident they may produce 700,000 tons of paddy rice in 2015due to favorable weather conditions.


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The UN’s FAO says rice imports for Timor-Leste in 2014-15 may double from last year to over130,000 tons as a result of reduced output in 2013 and strong domestic demand.

Despite efforts to reach 60% rice-sufficiency by 2015, Brunei has achieved only 4% so far,according to local sources.

Syria ’s state -purchasing agency has advanced the deadline for an international tender seeking to buy about 6,360 tons of long-grain white rice to May 4 from May 18.

The UN’s FAO forecasts Laos 2015 paddy rice production will increase about 3% from last yearto 3.4 million tons.

The UN’s FAO estimates Malaysia ’s 2014 -15 (July-June) rice imports will increase to 1.1

million tons due to strong consumption demand and the government’s efforts to replenish stocks.

The International Fund for Agricultural Development has earmarked around N1.5 billion to boost rice and cassava production in Nigeria in 2015.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago RoughRice Futures Dip Back Below $10.000 per cwtas Bearishness in Neighboring Grains PitsWeigh on PricesApr 24, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 8 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at$9.980 per cwt (about $220 per ton). The other grains finished the day sharply lower led by asteep decline in wheat; Soybeans closed about 0.9% lower at $9.7075 per bushel; wheat finishedabout 2.5% lower at $4.8850 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.7% lower at $3.6450

per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher on Friday on continued momentum from Thursday's high levelsas investors cheered major earnings reports. The Nasdaq held gains after opening more than 30

points higher, and the S&P touched a new intraday high, while the Dow attempted to shake off adecline as its top-weighted stocks lagged. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed the other majorindices on Thursday to set an all-time closing record, topping the previous high of 5,048.62 set inMarch 2000. While the Dow Jones industrial average still has about 1% before surpassing its


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record close, the S&P 500 could set a record close. Durable goods, ex-transportation, fell 0.2%, below expectations for a slight gain but less than February's 1.3% decline.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 30 points, or 0.16%, at 18,086. The S&P 500 tradedup 6 points, or 0.29%, at 2,119, with consumer discretionary leading six sectors higher andenergy the greatest decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 38 points, or 0.74%, at 5,093, above theclosing high set on Thursday but still below its record intraday high of 5,132.52 touched duringthe tech bubble in March 2000. Gold is trading about 1.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about1.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% lower at about 1:00pm Chicagotime.Thursday, there were 1,920 contracts traded, down from 1,962 contracts traded onWednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by 33contracts to 11,250.

South Korea Plans to Procure 77,000 Tons ofLocally Produced Rice to Stabilize PricesApr 24, 2015

The government of South Korea is planning to procure 77,000 tons of locally produced rice inMay this year to prevent prices from falling due to increasing supplies, Reuters quoted a ruling

party Committee as saying.A statement released today noted that supply of rice has exceededdemand and has been impacting prices significantly. South Korea produced around 4.24 milliontons of rice in 2014 over and above the government's projected 4.18 million tons as well asabove the demand of around 4 million tons. The domestic price of rice declined to around159,300 won per 80 kilograms (around $1,848 per ton) in April 2015, down about 6% fromaround 169,468 won per 80 kilograms (around $1,967 per ton) last year.

The government had opened the rice import market from January this year and proposed toimpose a tariff of 513% on imports over and above the mandatory rice imports of around408,700 tons under WTO minimum market agreement (MMA) rules. The WTO is yet to approvethe government's proposal regarding the tariff. Declining consumption of rice and the obligation

to import 408,700 tons of rice under the WTO rules have also been contributing to oversuppliesin the market, according to the Agriculture Ministry.USDA estimates South Korea's milled rice production at around 4.24 million tons in MY 2014-15 (November - October), slightly up froman estimated 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates South Korea to import around410,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15, up about 31% from 313,000 tons imported in MY 2013-14.USDA estimates South Korea’s 2014 -15 domestic consumption for rice to decline to around 4.45million tons from around 4.46 million tons in 2013-14.

27th april,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e-newsletter by riceplus magazine

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