28 april 2020 results review 1qcy20 ambuja cements cement -1qcy20...ambuja cements page | 3 :...

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28 April 2020 Results Review 1QCY20 Ambuja Cements HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Robust performace Ambuja reported a healthy 1QCY20 standalone result. While Rev declined 3% YoY to Rs 28.3bn (on sales loss in late Mar, led by nationwide lockdown to curb Covid-19 impact), robust realisation and flat opex drove EBITDA/APAT up by 30/6% YoY to Rs 6.0/4.0bn resp. We expect continued lockdown post 1Q, and slower ramp-up 3QCY20 onwards to pull down CY20E volumes by 15% YoY. However, robust realisation base and falling energy costs should bolster margin expansion. We maintain BUY with unchanged TP of Rs 210/sh. Lower utilisation but NSR remains firm: Sales vol in 1QCY20 declined 10/12% YoY/QoQ to 5.8mn MT, mainly led by Covid-19 lockdown during Mar end. Aided by its large presence in the north/Gujarat markets, its NSR remained firm at Rs 4,909/MT (+7/2%YoY/QoQ). Robust pricing, stable opex bolsters margin to Rs 1,047/MT: Ambuja’s 1QCY20 unitary opex rose 2% QoQ (flat YoY) to Rs 3,862/MT, led by lower fuel costs, and increased production efficiencies. Its unitary input costs fell 4/8% YoY/QoQ. Even unitary freight cost fell 1/5% QoQ/YoY on supply chain optimization and lower diesel prices. However, fixed costs per MT rose 12/6% YoY/QoQ on lower utilisation, thus offsetting the benefits of lower energy costs. Amid flat opex, robust NSR drove up unitary EBITDA by 44% YoY to Rs 1,047/MT (its higher margin in Mar-qtr since 1QCY12)! EBITDA/APAT up 30/7% YoY: Despite volume decline, strong margin buoyed EBITDA by 30% YoY. Below EBITDA, other income almost halved as the planned dividend income from ACC on 27th Mar could not be booked owing to delay in scheduled AGM. Eff tax rate remained flat YoY/QoQ at 25%. Thus, APAT grew at slower pace of 6% YoY. Maintain BUY: We model in 15% volume decline in CY20, owing to sales loss due to lockdown impact during 1Q/2QCY20 and slower sales pick-up thereafter. Ambuja’s clinker/grinding expansions in north by 18/6% to 21/31mn MT is expected to be operational by 1QCY21E. This should drive 12% volume CAGR during CY20-22E, in our view. Sustenance of healthy NSR in the north/Gujarat regions and falling energy costs should further bolster EBITDA margin to ~Rs 990/MT in CY22E from ~Rs 900/MT in CY19 (already at 7-yr high). We maintain BUY on the stock, with a TP of Rs 210/sh (SOTP based: we value standalone biz at 10x its Mar’22E EBITDA and Ambuja’s 50% holding in ACC at 20% disc to our target Mcap for ACC). Our TP implies replacement valuation of Rs 8.2bn/MT of capacity (similar to its 10-yr historical mean). Financial Summary Standalone YE Dec (Rs mn) 1Q CY20 1Q CY19 YoY (%) 4Q CY19 QoQ (%) CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E Net Sales 28,275 29,276 (3.4) 31,359 (9.8) 116,679 100,422 114,949 128,808 EBITDA 6,032 4,633 30.2 5,474 10.2 21,489 19,210 22,635 25,119 APAT 3,991 3,754 6.3 3,327 20.0 14,770 11,871 13,873 15,636 AEPS (Rs) 2.0 1.9 6.3 1.7 20.0 7.4 6.0 7.0 7.9 EV /EBITDA (x) 8.2 9.2 7.8 6.7 EV/MT (Rs bn) 5.99 5.66 5.65 5.38 P/E (x) 23.1 28.8 24.6 21.8 RoE (%) 6.8 5.3 6.0 6.5 Source: Company, HSIE Research BUY CMP (as on 27 Apr 2020) Rs 172 Target Price Rs 210 NIFTY 9,282 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating Buy Buy Price Target Rs 210 Rs 210 EPS % CY20 CY21E - - KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code ACEM IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,986 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 342/4,492 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 766 52 Week high / low Rs 240/137 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (20.1) (12.8) (23.8) Relative (%) 2.8 6.3 (5.0) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 63.4 63.3 FIs & Local MFs 13.3 14.6 FPIs 16.4 15.4 Public & Others 7.0 6.9 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Rajesh Ravi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7352 Saurabh Dugar [email protected] +91-22-6171-7353

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  • 28 April 2020 Results Review 1QCY20

    Ambuja Cements

    HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF & Thomson Reuters

    Robust performace

    Ambuja reported a healthy 1QCY20 standalone result. While Rev declined 3%

    YoY to Rs 28.3bn (on sales loss in late Mar, led by nationwide lockdown to

    curb Covid-19 impact), robust realisation and flat opex drove EBITDA/APAT

    up by 30/6% YoY to Rs 6.0/4.0bn resp. We expect continued lockdown post 1Q,

    and slower ramp-up 3QCY20 onwards to pull down CY20E volumes by 15%

    YoY. However, robust realisation base and falling energy costs should bolster

    margin expansion. We maintain BUY with unchanged TP of Rs 210/sh.

    Lower utilisation but NSR remains firm: Sales vol in 1QCY20 declined 10/12% YoY/QoQ to 5.8mn MT, mainly led by Covid-19 lockdown during

    Mar end. Aided by its large presence in the north/Gujarat markets, its NSR

    remained firm at Rs 4,909/MT (+7/2%YoY/QoQ).

    Robust pricing, stable opex bolsters margin to Rs 1,047/MT: Ambuja’s 1QCY20 unitary opex rose 2% QoQ (flat YoY) to Rs 3,862/MT, led by lower

    fuel costs, and increased production efficiencies. Its unitary input costs fell

    4/8% YoY/QoQ. Even unitary freight cost fell 1/5% QoQ/YoY on supply

    chain optimization and lower diesel prices. However, fixed costs per MT

    rose 12/6% YoY/QoQ on lower utilisation, thus offsetting the benefits of

    lower energy costs. Amid flat opex, robust NSR drove up unitary EBITDA

    by 44% YoY to Rs 1,047/MT (its higher margin in Mar-qtr since 1QCY12)!

    EBITDA/APAT up 30/7% YoY: Despite volume decline, strong margin buoyed EBITDA by 30% YoY. Below EBITDA, other income almost halved

    as the planned dividend income from ACC on 27th Mar could not be

    booked owing to delay in scheduled AGM. Eff tax rate remained flat

    YoY/QoQ at 25%. Thus, APAT grew at slower pace of 6% YoY.

    Maintain BUY: We model in 15% volume decline in CY20, owing to sales loss due to lockdown impact during 1Q/2QCY20 and slower sales pick-up

    thereafter. Ambuja’s clinker/grinding expansions in north by 18/6% to

    21/31mn MT is expected to be operational by 1QCY21E. This should drive

    12% volume CAGR during CY20-22E, in our view. Sustenance of healthy

    NSR in the north/Gujarat regions and falling energy costs should further

    bolster EBITDA margin to ~Rs 990/MT in CY22E from ~Rs 900/MT in CY19

    (already at 7-yr high). We maintain BUY on the stock, with a TP of Rs 210/sh

    (SOTP based: we value standalone biz at 10x its Mar’22E EBITDA and

    Ambuja’s 50% holding in ACC at 20% disc to our target Mcap for ACC). Our

    TP implies replacement valuation of Rs 8.2bn/MT of capacity (similar to its

    10-yr historical mean).

    Financial Summary – Standalone

    YE Dec (Rs mn) 1Q

    CY20

    1Q

    CY19

    YoY

    (%)

    4Q

    CY19

    QoQ

    (%) CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E

    Net Sales 28,275 29,276 (3.4) 31,359 (9.8) 116,679 100,422 114,949 128,808

    EBITDA 6,032 4,633 30.2 5,474 10.2 21,489 19,210 22,635 25,119

    APAT 3,991 3,754 6.3 3,327 20.0 14,770 11,871 13,873 15,636

    AEPS (Rs) 2.0 1.9 6.3 1.7 20.0 7.4 6.0 7.0 7.9

    EV /EBITDA (x)

    8.2 9.2 7.8 6.7

    EV/MT (Rs bn)

    5.99 5.66 5.65 5.38

    P/E (x)

    23.1 28.8 24.6 21.8

    RoE (%)

    6.8 5.3 6.0 6.5

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

    BUY

    CMP (as on 27 Apr 2020) Rs 172

    Target Price Rs 210

    NIFTY 9,282

    KEY

    CHANGES OLD NEW

    Rating Buy Buy

    Price Target Rs 210 Rs 210

    EPS % CY20 CY21E

    - -

    KEY STOCK DATA

    Bloomberg code ACEM IN

    No. of Shares (mn) 1,986

    MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 342/4,492

    6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 766

    52 Week high / low Rs 240/137

    STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

    3M 6M 12M

    Absolute (%) (20.1) (12.8) (23.8)

    Relative (%) 2.8 6.3 (5.0)

    SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

    Dec-19 Mar-20

    Promoters 63.4 63.3

    FIs & Local MFs 13.3 14.6

    FPIs 16.4 15.4

    Public & Others 7.0 6.9

    Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

    Source : BSE

    Rajesh Ravi

    [email protected]

    +91-22-6171-7352

    Saurabh Dugar

    [email protected]

    +91-22-6171-7353

  • Page | 2

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

    Quarterly standalone Financial Snapshot

    Particulars (Rs mn) 1QCY20 1QCY19 YoY (%) 4QCY19 QoQ (%)

    Net Sales 28,275 29,276 (3.4) 31,359 (9.8)

    Raw Materials 4,272 4,337 (1.5) 5,547 (23.0)

    Power and Fuel 5,622 7,099 (20.8) 6,692 (16.0)

    Employee 1,722 1,671 3.0 1,690 1.9

    Transport 5,665 6,596 (14.1) 6,463 (12.4)

    Other Exp 4,964 4,941 0.5 5,493 (9.6)

    EBITDA 6,032 4,633 30.2 5,474 10.2

    EBITDA margin (%) 21.3 15.8 551 17.5 388

    Depreciation 1,379 1,314 5.0 1,487 (7.2)

    EBIT 4,653 3,319 40.2 3,987 16.7

    Other Income (Including EO Items) 881 2,402 (63.3) 1,878 (53.1)

    Interest Cost 231 175 31.9 237 (2.6)

    PBT - Reported 5,304 5,546 (4.4) 5,629 (5.8)

    Tax 1,313 1,276 2.9 1,080 21.6

    Tax rate 24.8 23.0 175 19.2 557

    RPAT 3,991 4,270 (6.5) 4,549 (12.3)

    EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - 516 1,222

    APAT 3,991 3,754 6.3 3,327 20.0

    Adj PAT margin 14.1 12.8 129 10.6 351

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

    Quarterly Performance Analysis

    Particulars (% of Revenue) 1QCY20 1QCY19 YoY (%) 4QCY19 QoQ (%)

    Sales vol (mn MT) 5.8 6.4 (9.6) 6.5 (11.9)

    Rs/MT trend

    NSR 4,909 4,596 6.8 4,795 2.4

    Raw materials 742 681 8.9 848 (12.6)

    Power & fuel 976 1,114 (12.4) 1,023 (4.6)

    Employee 983 1,035 (5.0) 988 (0.5)

    Freight (inward +outward) 299 262 14.0 258 15.7

    Other Exp 862 776 11.1 840 2.6

    Opex 3,862 3,869 (0.2) 3,958 (2.4)

    EBITDA 1,047 727 44.0 837 25.1

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

    Standalone Rev declined

    3% YoY to Rs 28.3bn,

    EBITDA/APAT grew

    30/6% YoY to Rs 6.03/4.0bn

    resp.

    Sales vol declined 10/12%

    YoY/QoQ to 5.8mn MT,

    mainly led by Covid-19

    shutdowns.

    NSR rose 7/2%YoY/QoQ

    owing to strong pricing in

    tbe north/Gujarat region.

    Unitary opex fell 2% QoQ

    (flat YoY) to Rs 3,862/MT

    led by lower fuel costs, and

    increased production &

    input cost efficiencies and

    lower diesel prices.

    Lower utilisation however

    led to higher fixed costs

    YoY/QoQ, thus moderating

    the cost reduction.

    Unitary EBITDA thus

    buoyed 44/25% YoY/QoQ

    to Rs 1,047/MT, despite

    volume decline.

    Other income fell 53% YoY

    as there is no dividend

    booked this year.

  • Page | 3

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

    Operational Trends and Assumptions

    Particulars CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E

    Cement Cap (mn MT) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 31.4 31.4 31.4

    Sales Volume (mn MT) 21.5 23.0 24.2 24.0 20.4 23.1 25.4

    YoY change (%) (1.5) 7.0 5.2 (0.9) (14.7) 13.0 10.0

    Utilisation (%) 72.7 77.8 81.8 81.1 65.2 73.7 81.0

    (Rs/ MT trend)

    NSR 4,283 4,550 4,697 4,870 4,914 4,978 5,071

    YoY change (%) (1.3) 6.2 3.2 3.7 0.9 1.3 1.9

    Raw material cost 619 655 696 722 735 757 782

    Power and fuel cost 853 972 1,053 1,079 1,026 1,046 1,077

    Transport cost 880 963 1,047 1,003 952 971 1,001

    Employee cost 275 288 281 281 330 295 280

    Other expenses 866 847 836 888 932 929 942

    Total Opex 3,494 3,725 3,913 3,973 3,974 3,998 4,082

    YoY change (%) (4.0) 6.6 5.1 1.5 0.0 0.6 2.1

    EBITDA per MT 789 825 784 897 940 980 989

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

  • Page | 4

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

    Long term op performance trends (TTM basis)

    We have plotted Ambuja Cements’ operating metrics on trailing 12-month

    (TTM) basis, to assess its long term performance trends

    Demand disruption in peak month of Mar-20 drove

    volume decline on TTM basis

    … NSR remained firm owing to strong pricing in the

    north/ Gujarat markets

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

    Opex continues to moderate thus bolstering margin

    expansion

    Opex trends: Stable input and fixed costs, falling

    logisitcs cost

    Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

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  • Page | 5

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

    Long term performance trends (TTM basis) continued

    Ambuja’s unitary EBITDA continues to firm up and

    are currently at 7-yr high levels

    Ambuja’s EBITDA and PAT margins expanded

    further to their highest levels in last six years!

    Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

    Peer Set Comparison

    Company Mcap

    (Rs bn)

    CMP

    (Rs/sh) Reco TP

    EV/EBITDA EV/MT (Rs bn) Net D:E (x) RoE (%)

    FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

    UltraTech Cement 923 3,361 BUY 4,850 12.1 13.0 10.7 9.96 9.49 8.85 0.5 0.4 0.2 10.7 8.3 10.2

    Shree Cement 663 19,022 REDUCE 17,900 18.1 19.7 16.5 14.39 13.24 12.87 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 12.4 7.6 9.6

    Ambuja Cements 342 172 BUY 210 8.2 9.2 7.8 5.99 5.66 5.65 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) 6.8 5.3 6.0

    ACC 214 1,140 BUY 1,440 7.0 9.6 7.8 5.27 5.42 5.48 (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) 11.6 8.4 10.6

    Ramco Cements 124 524 BUY 670 12.8 13.3 9.7 7.80 7.49 6.75 0.4 0.4 0.3 12.1 10.2 12.7

    Dalmia Bharat 103 534 BUY 930 7.1 9.0 6.9 5.41 4.64 3.92 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0 (1.2) 0.5

    JK Cement 85 1,104 BUY 1,355 9.9 10.1 9.3 6.74 6.81 7.21 0.9 0.9 1.0 14.9 11.8 13.9

    Star Cement 32 77 BUY 100 7.7 8.2 7.1 5.32 5.63 5.96 (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 15.7 13.5 16.1

    JK Lakshmi 24 201 BUY 370 5.3 6.6 5.6 2.93 3.07 2.70 0.6 0.7 0.6 13.8 9.3 11.4

    Orient Cement 8.3 41 BUY 85 6.4 6.6 5.9 2.58 2.64 3.01 1.1 1.2 1.3 4.7 4.6 12.3

    Deccan Cements 2.8 203 BUY 370 3.3 3.1 3.5 1.16 1.04 1.67 (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 9.9 7.9 11.8

    Source: Company, HSIE Research, For ACC and Ambuja, the financial years are CY19/CY20E/CY21E resp

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  • Page | 6

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

    Financials Consolidated Income Statement YE Dec (Rs mn) CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E

    Revenues 104,559 113,568 116,679 100,422 114,949 128,808

    Growth % 13.7 8.6 2.7 (13.9) 14.5 12.1

    Raw Material 15,062 16,826 17,293 15,014 17,475 19,856

    Power & Fuel 22,331 25,458 25,864 20,956 24,154 27,366

    Freight Expense 22,123 25,314 24,022 19,463 22,433 25,416

    Employee cost 6,614 6,796 6,726 6,743 6,812 7,112

    Other Expenses 19,465 20,221 21,286 19,036 21,441 23,939

    EBITDA 18,965 18,953 21,489 19,210 22,635 25,119

    EBIDTA Margin (%) 18.1 16.7 18.4 19.1 19.7 19.5

    EBITDA Growth % 11.9 (0.1) 13.4 (10.6) 17.8 11.0

    Depreciation 5,729 5,481 5,438 6,122 7,116 7,516

    EBIT 13,236 13,472 16,051 13,088 15,519 17,603

    Other Income (Including EO Items) 4,037 6,529 4,265 3,640 3,878 4,146

    Interest 1,072 823 835 900 900 900

    PBT 16,200 19,178 19,481 15,828 18,497 20,849

    Tax 3,696 4,269 4,195 3,957 4,624 5,212

    Minority Int - - - - - -

    RPAT 12,505 14,909 15,286 11,871 13,873 15,636

    EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 446 2,779 516 - - -

    APAT 12,059 12,129 14,770 11,871 13,873 15,636

    APAT Growth (%) 29.1 0.6 21.8 (19.6) 16.9 12.7

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

    Consolidated Balance Sheet

    YE Dec (Rs mn) CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E

    SOURCES OF FUNDS

    Share Capital 3,971 3,971 3,971 3,971 3,971 3,971

    Reserves And Surplus 195,761 206,154 218,081 225,321 232,247 240,937

    Total Equity 199,732 210,125 222,052 229,292 236,218 244,908

    Minority Int - - - - - -

    Long-term Debt 241 397 353 353 353 353

    Short-term Debt - - - - - -

    Total Debt 241 397 353 353 353 353

    Deferred Tax Liability 4,584 3,722 2,161 2,161 2,161 2,161

    Long-term Liab+ Provisions 89 84 365 419 482 554

    TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 204,646 214,328 224,930 232,224 239,214 247,976

    APPLICATION OF FUNDS

    Net Block 57,220 56,636 58,125 79,502 78,887 77,371

    Capital WIP 3,979 6,100 11,087 1,087 3,087 7,087

    Goodwill - - - - - -

    Other Non-current Assets 11,604 13,590 14,572 13,376 19,841 20,468

    Total Non-current Investments 118,447 118,138 117,890 117,890 117,890 117,890

    Total Non-current Assets 191,250 194,464 201,674 211,856 219,704 222,816

    Inventories 10,525 12,778 9,541 9,629 11,023 13,410

    Debtors 3,080 4,703 5,132 4,127 4,724 5,293

    Cash and Cash Equivalents 34,971 33,300 46,995 46,406 46,842 55,333

    Other Current Assets 6,346 6,623 6,566 4,232 4,232 4,232

    Total Current Assets 54,922 57,403 68,234 64,394 66,820 78,268

    Creditors 10,289 11,095 9,360 8,254 9,448 10,587

    Other Current Liabilities & Provns 31,237 26,445 35,618 35,772 37,863 42,521

    Total Current Liabilities 41,526 37,540 44,978 44,026 47,311 53,108

    Net Current Assets 13,396 19,863 23,256 20,369 19,509 25,160

    TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 204,646 214,328 224,930 232,224 239,214 247,976

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

  • Page | 7

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

    Consolidated Cash Flow YE Dec (Rs mn) CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E

    Reported PBT 16,191 15,061 19,480 15,828 18,497 20,849

    Non-operating & EO Items (3,663) (3,230) (3,983) (3,640) (3,878) (4,146)

    Interest Expenses 1,072 823 835 900 900 900

    Depreciation 5,729 5,481 5,438 6,122 7,116 7,516

    Working Capital Change 2,136 (6,166) 3,877 3,549 (5,106) 2,285

    Tax Paid (3,101) (6,251) (808) (3,957) (4,624) (5,212)

    OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 18,364 5,719 24,840 18,802 12,905 22,191

    Capex (5,427) (5,936) (11,114) (17,500) (8,500) (10,000)

    Free Cash Flow (FCF) 12,938 (217) 13,726 1,302 4,405 12,191

    Investments 580 503 239 - - -

    Non-operating Income 2,888 2,890 3,495 3,640 3,878 4,146

    Others

    INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (1,959) (2,543) (7,380) (13,860) (4,622) (5,854)

    Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (27) 216 - - - -

    Interest Expenses (1,143) (513) (558) (900) (900) (900)

    FCFE 11,767 (515) 13,168 402 3,505 11,291

    Share Capital Issuance - - - - - -

    Dividend (6,357) (4,498) (3,320) (4,631) (6,946) (6,946)

    FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (7,527) (4,795) (3,879) (5,531) (7,846) (7,846)

    NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 8,878 (1,620) 13,582 (589) 436 8,491

    EO Items, Others

    Closing Cash & Equivalents 34,664 33,351 46,881 46,406 46,842 55,333

    Key Ratios

    CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E

    PROFITABILITY %

    EBITDA Margin 18.1 16.7 18.4 19.1 19.7 19.5

    EBIT Margin 12.7 11.9 13.8 13.0 13.5 13.7

    APAT Margin 11.5 10.7 12.7 11.8 12.1 12.1

    RoE 6.1 5.9 6.8 5.3 6.0 6.5

    RoIC 19.2 18.3 20.5 15.3 16.3 17.7

    RoCE 6.4 6.4 7.1 5.5 6.2 6.7

    EFFICIENCY

    Tax Rate % 22.8 22.3 21.5 25.0 25.0 25.0

    Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1

    Inventory (days) 37 41 30 35 35 38

    Debtors (days) 11 15 16 15 15 15

    Other Current Assets (days) 22 21 21 15 13 12

    Payables (days) 36 36 29 30 30 30

    Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 109 85 111 130 120 120

    Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (75) (43) (74) (95) (87) (85)

    Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.8) (1.7) (2.2) (2.4) (2.1) (2.2)

    Net D/E (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)

    Interest Coverage 12.3 16.4 19.2 14.5 17.2 19.6

    PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

    EPS 6.1 6.1 7.4 6.0 7.0 7.9

    CEPS 9.0 8.9 10.2 9.1 10.6 11.7

    Dividend 3.6 1.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.0

    Book Value 100.6 105.8 111.8 115.4 118.9 123.3

    VALUATION

    P/E (x) 28.3 28.2 23.1 28.8 24.6 21.8

    P/Cash EPS (x) 18.7 16.8 16.5 19.0 16.3 14.8

    P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4

    EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 10.1 8.2 9.2 7.8 6.7

    EV/MT (Rs bn) 6.38 6.45 5.99 5.66 5.65 5.38

    Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.7

    OCF/EV (%) 9.7 3.0 14.0 10.6 7.3 13.2

    FCFF/EV (%) 6.9 (0.1) 7.8 0.7 2.5 7.2

    FCFE/M Cap (%) 3.4 (0.2) 3.9 0.1 1.0 3.3

    Source: Company, HSIE Research

  • Page | 8

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

    Rating Criteria

    BUY: >+15% return potential

    ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

    REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

    SELL: >10% Downside return potential

    Date CMP Reco Target

    10-Apr-19 227 NEU 220

    2-May-19 221 NEU 223

    10-Jul-19 211 NEU 223

    26-Jul-19 215 NEU 230

    22-Sep-19 215 NEU 230

    10-Oct-19 192 BUY 230

    18-Oct-19 207 BUY 240

    10-Jan-20 208 BUY 240

    23-Feb-20 205 BUY 245

    2-Mar-20 205 BUY 245

    5-Mar-20 208 BUY 245

    17-Apr-20 170 BUY 210

    28-Apr-20 172 BUY 210

    From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

    RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    220

    240

    Ap

    r-1

    9

    Ma

    y-1

    9

    Jun

    -19

    Jul-

    19

    Au

    g-1

    9

    Sep

    -19

    Oct

    -19

    No

    v-1

    9

    Dec

    -19

    Jan

    -20

    Feb

    -20

    Ma

    r-2

    0

    Ap

    r-2

    0

    Ambuja Cements TP

  • Page | 9

    Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20

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