28 april 2020 results review 1qcy20 ambuja cements cement -1qcy20...ambuja cements page | 3 :...
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28 April 2020 Results Review 1QCY20
Ambuja Cements
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF & Thomson Reuters
Robust performace
Ambuja reported a healthy 1QCY20 standalone result. While Rev declined 3%
YoY to Rs 28.3bn (on sales loss in late Mar, led by nationwide lockdown to
curb Covid-19 impact), robust realisation and flat opex drove EBITDA/APAT
up by 30/6% YoY to Rs 6.0/4.0bn resp. We expect continued lockdown post 1Q,
and slower ramp-up 3QCY20 onwards to pull down CY20E volumes by 15%
YoY. However, robust realisation base and falling energy costs should bolster
margin expansion. We maintain BUY with unchanged TP of Rs 210/sh.
Lower utilisation but NSR remains firm: Sales vol in 1QCY20 declined 10/12% YoY/QoQ to 5.8mn MT, mainly led by Covid-19 lockdown during
Mar end. Aided by its large presence in the north/Gujarat markets, its NSR
remained firm at Rs 4,909/MT (+7/2%YoY/QoQ).
Robust pricing, stable opex bolsters margin to Rs 1,047/MT: Ambuja’s 1QCY20 unitary opex rose 2% QoQ (flat YoY) to Rs 3,862/MT, led by lower
fuel costs, and increased production efficiencies. Its unitary input costs fell
4/8% YoY/QoQ. Even unitary freight cost fell 1/5% QoQ/YoY on supply
chain optimization and lower diesel prices. However, fixed costs per MT
rose 12/6% YoY/QoQ on lower utilisation, thus offsetting the benefits of
lower energy costs. Amid flat opex, robust NSR drove up unitary EBITDA
by 44% YoY to Rs 1,047/MT (its higher margin in Mar-qtr since 1QCY12)!
EBITDA/APAT up 30/7% YoY: Despite volume decline, strong margin buoyed EBITDA by 30% YoY. Below EBITDA, other income almost halved
as the planned dividend income from ACC on 27th Mar could not be
booked owing to delay in scheduled AGM. Eff tax rate remained flat
YoY/QoQ at 25%. Thus, APAT grew at slower pace of 6% YoY.
Maintain BUY: We model in 15% volume decline in CY20, owing to sales loss due to lockdown impact during 1Q/2QCY20 and slower sales pick-up
thereafter. Ambuja’s clinker/grinding expansions in north by 18/6% to
21/31mn MT is expected to be operational by 1QCY21E. This should drive
12% volume CAGR during CY20-22E, in our view. Sustenance of healthy
NSR in the north/Gujarat regions and falling energy costs should further
bolster EBITDA margin to ~Rs 990/MT in CY22E from ~Rs 900/MT in CY19
(already at 7-yr high). We maintain BUY on the stock, with a TP of Rs 210/sh
(SOTP based: we value standalone biz at 10x its Mar’22E EBITDA and
Ambuja’s 50% holding in ACC at 20% disc to our target Mcap for ACC). Our
TP implies replacement valuation of Rs 8.2bn/MT of capacity (similar to its
10-yr historical mean).
Financial Summary – Standalone
YE Dec (Rs mn) 1Q
CY20
1Q
CY19
YoY
(%)
4Q
CY19
QoQ
(%) CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E
Net Sales 28,275 29,276 (3.4) 31,359 (9.8) 116,679 100,422 114,949 128,808
EBITDA 6,032 4,633 30.2 5,474 10.2 21,489 19,210 22,635 25,119
APAT 3,991 3,754 6.3 3,327 20.0 14,770 11,871 13,873 15,636
AEPS (Rs) 2.0 1.9 6.3 1.7 20.0 7.4 6.0 7.0 7.9
EV /EBITDA (x)
8.2 9.2 7.8 6.7
EV/MT (Rs bn)
5.99 5.66 5.65 5.38
P/E (x)
23.1 28.8 24.6 21.8
RoE (%)
6.8 5.3 6.0 6.5
Source: Company, HSIE Research
BUY
CMP (as on 27 Apr 2020) Rs 172
Target Price Rs 210
NIFTY 9,282
KEY
CHANGES OLD NEW
Rating Buy Buy
Price Target Rs 210 Rs 210
EPS % CY20 CY21E
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KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg code ACEM IN
No. of Shares (mn) 1,986
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 342/4,492
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 766
52 Week high / low Rs 240/137
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
3M 6M 12M
Absolute (%) (20.1) (12.8) (23.8)
Relative (%) 2.8 6.3 (5.0)
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Dec-19 Mar-20
Promoters 63.4 63.3
FIs & Local MFs 13.3 14.6
FPIs 16.4 15.4
Public & Others 7.0 6.9
Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0
Source : BSE
Rajesh Ravi
+91-22-6171-7352
Saurabh Dugar
+91-22-6171-7353
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Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
Quarterly standalone Financial Snapshot
Particulars (Rs mn) 1QCY20 1QCY19 YoY (%) 4QCY19 QoQ (%)
Net Sales 28,275 29,276 (3.4) 31,359 (9.8)
Raw Materials 4,272 4,337 (1.5) 5,547 (23.0)
Power and Fuel 5,622 7,099 (20.8) 6,692 (16.0)
Employee 1,722 1,671 3.0 1,690 1.9
Transport 5,665 6,596 (14.1) 6,463 (12.4)
Other Exp 4,964 4,941 0.5 5,493 (9.6)
EBITDA 6,032 4,633 30.2 5,474 10.2
EBITDA margin (%) 21.3 15.8 551 17.5 388
Depreciation 1,379 1,314 5.0 1,487 (7.2)
EBIT 4,653 3,319 40.2 3,987 16.7
Other Income (Including EO Items) 881 2,402 (63.3) 1,878 (53.1)
Interest Cost 231 175 31.9 237 (2.6)
PBT - Reported 5,304 5,546 (4.4) 5,629 (5.8)
Tax 1,313 1,276 2.9 1,080 21.6
Tax rate 24.8 23.0 175 19.2 557
RPAT 3,991 4,270 (6.5) 4,549 (12.3)
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - 516 1,222
APAT 3,991 3,754 6.3 3,327 20.0
Adj PAT margin 14.1 12.8 129 10.6 351
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Quarterly Performance Analysis
Particulars (% of Revenue) 1QCY20 1QCY19 YoY (%) 4QCY19 QoQ (%)
Sales vol (mn MT) 5.8 6.4 (9.6) 6.5 (11.9)
Rs/MT trend
NSR 4,909 4,596 6.8 4,795 2.4
Raw materials 742 681 8.9 848 (12.6)
Power & fuel 976 1,114 (12.4) 1,023 (4.6)
Employee 983 1,035 (5.0) 988 (0.5)
Freight (inward +outward) 299 262 14.0 258 15.7
Other Exp 862 776 11.1 840 2.6
Opex 3,862 3,869 (0.2) 3,958 (2.4)
EBITDA 1,047 727 44.0 837 25.1
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Standalone Rev declined
3% YoY to Rs 28.3bn,
EBITDA/APAT grew
30/6% YoY to Rs 6.03/4.0bn
resp.
Sales vol declined 10/12%
YoY/QoQ to 5.8mn MT,
mainly led by Covid-19
shutdowns.
NSR rose 7/2%YoY/QoQ
owing to strong pricing in
tbe north/Gujarat region.
Unitary opex fell 2% QoQ
(flat YoY) to Rs 3,862/MT
led by lower fuel costs, and
increased production &
input cost efficiencies and
lower diesel prices.
Lower utilisation however
led to higher fixed costs
YoY/QoQ, thus moderating
the cost reduction.
Unitary EBITDA thus
buoyed 44/25% YoY/QoQ
to Rs 1,047/MT, despite
volume decline.
Other income fell 53% YoY
as there is no dividend
booked this year.
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Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
Operational Trends and Assumptions
Particulars CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E
Cement Cap (mn MT) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 31.4 31.4 31.4
Sales Volume (mn MT) 21.5 23.0 24.2 24.0 20.4 23.1 25.4
YoY change (%) (1.5) 7.0 5.2 (0.9) (14.7) 13.0 10.0
Utilisation (%) 72.7 77.8 81.8 81.1 65.2 73.7 81.0
(Rs/ MT trend)
NSR 4,283 4,550 4,697 4,870 4,914 4,978 5,071
YoY change (%) (1.3) 6.2 3.2 3.7 0.9 1.3 1.9
Raw material cost 619 655 696 722 735 757 782
Power and fuel cost 853 972 1,053 1,079 1,026 1,046 1,077
Transport cost 880 963 1,047 1,003 952 971 1,001
Employee cost 275 288 281 281 330 295 280
Other expenses 866 847 836 888 932 929 942
Total Opex 3,494 3,725 3,913 3,973 3,974 3,998 4,082
YoY change (%) (4.0) 6.6 5.1 1.5 0.0 0.6 2.1
EBITDA per MT 789 825 784 897 940 980 989
Source: Company, HSIE Research
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Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
Long term op performance trends (TTM basis)
We have plotted Ambuja Cements’ operating metrics on trailing 12-month
(TTM) basis, to assess its long term performance trends
Demand disruption in peak month of Mar-20 drove
volume decline on TTM basis
… NSR remained firm owing to strong pricing in the
north/ Gujarat markets
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Opex continues to moderate thus bolstering margin
expansion
Opex trends: Stable input and fixed costs, falling
logisitcs cost
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research
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Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
Long term performance trends (TTM basis) continued
Ambuja’s unitary EBITDA continues to firm up and
are currently at 7-yr high levels
Ambuja’s EBITDA and PAT margins expanded
further to their highest levels in last six years!
Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research
Peer Set Comparison
Company Mcap
(Rs bn)
CMP
(Rs/sh) Reco TP
EV/EBITDA EV/MT (Rs bn) Net D:E (x) RoE (%)
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E
UltraTech Cement 923 3,361 BUY 4,850 12.1 13.0 10.7 9.96 9.49 8.85 0.5 0.4 0.2 10.7 8.3 10.2
Shree Cement 663 19,022 REDUCE 17,900 18.1 19.7 16.5 14.39 13.24 12.87 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 12.4 7.6 9.6
Ambuja Cements 342 172 BUY 210 8.2 9.2 7.8 5.99 5.66 5.65 (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) 6.8 5.3 6.0
ACC 214 1,140 BUY 1,440 7.0 9.6 7.8 5.27 5.42 5.48 (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) 11.6 8.4 10.6
Ramco Cements 124 524 BUY 670 12.8 13.3 9.7 7.80 7.49 6.75 0.4 0.4 0.3 12.1 10.2 12.7
Dalmia Bharat 103 534 BUY 930 7.1 9.0 6.9 5.41 4.64 3.92 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0 (1.2) 0.5
JK Cement 85 1,104 BUY 1,355 9.9 10.1 9.3 6.74 6.81 7.21 0.9 0.9 1.0 14.9 11.8 13.9
Star Cement 32 77 BUY 100 7.7 8.2 7.1 5.32 5.63 5.96 (0.1) (0.0) 0.1 15.7 13.5 16.1
JK Lakshmi 24 201 BUY 370 5.3 6.6 5.6 2.93 3.07 2.70 0.6 0.7 0.6 13.8 9.3 11.4
Orient Cement 8.3 41 BUY 85 6.4 6.6 5.9 2.58 2.64 3.01 1.1 1.2 1.3 4.7 4.6 12.3
Deccan Cements 2.8 203 BUY 370 3.3 3.1 3.5 1.16 1.04 1.67 (0.1) (0.1) 0.2 9.9 7.9 11.8
Source: Company, HSIE Research, For ACC and Ambuja, the financial years are CY19/CY20E/CY21E resp
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Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
Financials Consolidated Income Statement YE Dec (Rs mn) CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E
Revenues 104,559 113,568 116,679 100,422 114,949 128,808
Growth % 13.7 8.6 2.7 (13.9) 14.5 12.1
Raw Material 15,062 16,826 17,293 15,014 17,475 19,856
Power & Fuel 22,331 25,458 25,864 20,956 24,154 27,366
Freight Expense 22,123 25,314 24,022 19,463 22,433 25,416
Employee cost 6,614 6,796 6,726 6,743 6,812 7,112
Other Expenses 19,465 20,221 21,286 19,036 21,441 23,939
EBITDA 18,965 18,953 21,489 19,210 22,635 25,119
EBIDTA Margin (%) 18.1 16.7 18.4 19.1 19.7 19.5
EBITDA Growth % 11.9 (0.1) 13.4 (10.6) 17.8 11.0
Depreciation 5,729 5,481 5,438 6,122 7,116 7,516
EBIT 13,236 13,472 16,051 13,088 15,519 17,603
Other Income (Including EO Items) 4,037 6,529 4,265 3,640 3,878 4,146
Interest 1,072 823 835 900 900 900
PBT 16,200 19,178 19,481 15,828 18,497 20,849
Tax 3,696 4,269 4,195 3,957 4,624 5,212
Minority Int - - - - - -
RPAT 12,505 14,909 15,286 11,871 13,873 15,636
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 446 2,779 516 - - -
APAT 12,059 12,129 14,770 11,871 13,873 15,636
APAT Growth (%) 29.1 0.6 21.8 (19.6) 16.9 12.7
Source: Company, HSIE Research
Consolidated Balance Sheet
YE Dec (Rs mn) CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital 3,971 3,971 3,971 3,971 3,971 3,971
Reserves And Surplus 195,761 206,154 218,081 225,321 232,247 240,937
Total Equity 199,732 210,125 222,052 229,292 236,218 244,908
Minority Int - - - - - -
Long-term Debt 241 397 353 353 353 353
Short-term Debt - - - - - -
Total Debt 241 397 353 353 353 353
Deferred Tax Liability 4,584 3,722 2,161 2,161 2,161 2,161
Long-term Liab+ Provisions 89 84 365 419 482 554
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 204,646 214,328 224,930 232,224 239,214 247,976
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block 57,220 56,636 58,125 79,502 78,887 77,371
Capital WIP 3,979 6,100 11,087 1,087 3,087 7,087
Goodwill - - - - - -
Other Non-current Assets 11,604 13,590 14,572 13,376 19,841 20,468
Total Non-current Investments 118,447 118,138 117,890 117,890 117,890 117,890
Total Non-current Assets 191,250 194,464 201,674 211,856 219,704 222,816
Inventories 10,525 12,778 9,541 9,629 11,023 13,410
Debtors 3,080 4,703 5,132 4,127 4,724 5,293
Cash and Cash Equivalents 34,971 33,300 46,995 46,406 46,842 55,333
Other Current Assets 6,346 6,623 6,566 4,232 4,232 4,232
Total Current Assets 54,922 57,403 68,234 64,394 66,820 78,268
Creditors 10,289 11,095 9,360 8,254 9,448 10,587
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 31,237 26,445 35,618 35,772 37,863 42,521
Total Current Liabilities 41,526 37,540 44,978 44,026 47,311 53,108
Net Current Assets 13,396 19,863 23,256 20,369 19,509 25,160
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 204,646 214,328 224,930 232,224 239,214 247,976
Source: Company, HSIE Research
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Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
Consolidated Cash Flow YE Dec (Rs mn) CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E
Reported PBT 16,191 15,061 19,480 15,828 18,497 20,849
Non-operating & EO Items (3,663) (3,230) (3,983) (3,640) (3,878) (4,146)
Interest Expenses 1,072 823 835 900 900 900
Depreciation 5,729 5,481 5,438 6,122 7,116 7,516
Working Capital Change 2,136 (6,166) 3,877 3,549 (5,106) 2,285
Tax Paid (3,101) (6,251) (808) (3,957) (4,624) (5,212)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 18,364 5,719 24,840 18,802 12,905 22,191
Capex (5,427) (5,936) (11,114) (17,500) (8,500) (10,000)
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 12,938 (217) 13,726 1,302 4,405 12,191
Investments 580 503 239 - - -
Non-operating Income 2,888 2,890 3,495 3,640 3,878 4,146
Others
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (1,959) (2,543) (7,380) (13,860) (4,622) (5,854)
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (27) 216 - - - -
Interest Expenses (1,143) (513) (558) (900) (900) (900)
FCFE 11,767 (515) 13,168 402 3,505 11,291
Share Capital Issuance - - - - - -
Dividend (6,357) (4,498) (3,320) (4,631) (6,946) (6,946)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (7,527) (4,795) (3,879) (5,531) (7,846) (7,846)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 8,878 (1,620) 13,582 (589) 436 8,491
EO Items, Others
Closing Cash & Equivalents 34,664 33,351 46,881 46,406 46,842 55,333
Key Ratios
CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20E CY21E CY22E
PROFITABILITY %
EBITDA Margin 18.1 16.7 18.4 19.1 19.7 19.5
EBIT Margin 12.7 11.9 13.8 13.0 13.5 13.7
APAT Margin 11.5 10.7 12.7 11.8 12.1 12.1
RoE 6.1 5.9 6.8 5.3 6.0 6.5
RoIC 19.2 18.3 20.5 15.3 16.3 17.7
RoCE 6.4 6.4 7.1 5.5 6.2 6.7
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate % 22.8 22.3 21.5 25.0 25.0 25.0
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1
Inventory (days) 37 41 30 35 35 38
Debtors (days) 11 15 16 15 15 15
Other Current Assets (days) 22 21 21 15 13 12
Payables (days) 36 36 29 30 30 30
Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 109 85 111 130 120 120
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (75) (43) (74) (95) (87) (85)
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.8) (1.7) (2.2) (2.4) (2.1) (2.2)
Net D/E (0.8) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)
Interest Coverage 12.3 16.4 19.2 14.5 17.2 19.6
PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EPS 6.1 6.1 7.4 6.0 7.0 7.9
CEPS 9.0 8.9 10.2 9.1 10.6 11.7
Dividend 3.6 1.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.0
Book Value 100.6 105.8 111.8 115.4 118.9 123.3
VALUATION
P/E (x) 28.3 28.2 23.1 28.8 24.6 21.8
P/Cash EPS (x) 18.7 16.8 16.5 19.0 16.3 14.8
P/BV (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 10.1 8.2 9.2 7.8 6.7
EV/MT (Rs bn) 6.38 6.45 5.99 5.66 5.65 5.38
Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.7
OCF/EV (%) 9.7 3.0 14.0 10.6 7.3 13.2
FCFF/EV (%) 6.9 (0.1) 7.8 0.7 2.5 7.2
FCFE/M Cap (%) 3.4 (0.2) 3.9 0.1 1.0 3.3
Source: Company, HSIE Research
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Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
Rating Criteria
BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: >10% Downside return potential
Date CMP Reco Target
10-Apr-19 227 NEU 220
2-May-19 221 NEU 223
10-Jul-19 211 NEU 223
26-Jul-19 215 NEU 230
22-Sep-19 215 NEU 230
10-Oct-19 192 BUY 230
18-Oct-19 207 BUY 240
10-Jan-20 208 BUY 240
23-Feb-20 205 BUY 245
2-Mar-20 205 BUY 245
5-Mar-20 208 BUY 245
17-Apr-20 170 BUY 210
28-Apr-20 172 BUY 210
From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
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Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Ma
r-2
0
Ap
r-2
0
Ambuja Cements TP
-
Page | 9
Ambuja Cements: Results Review 1QCY20
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