29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in yellowstone geysers. $15m in...

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29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959 M 7.5 Hebgen Lake Earthquake The largest historic earthquake of the Intermountain west and frequently used as the maximum credible event for hazard analysis. Reminder of Yellowstone region seismicity

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Page 1: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers.

$15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)!

Rupture of the 1959 M 7.5 Hebgen Lake Earthquake

The largest historic earthquake of the Intermountain west andfrequently used as the maximumcredible event for hazard analysis.

Reminder of Yellowstone region seismicity

Page 2: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

Hebgen Lake fault

M 7.5, 1959

M 6.2, 19751985 swarm

Yellowstone: An Active Seismo-Volcanic SystemYellowstone: An Active Seismo-Volcanic System

Hypocenter locations using 3D velocity model.

The 0.64 My caldera boundary is in orange.

Color patterns are hydrothermal features.

Deformation measured by geodetic methods.

Magnitudes converted to seismic moment.

1000 to 4000 events per year.

Page 3: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

Combined Earthquake and Volcano Risk of Yellowstone-Grand Teton Region

•With over 6 million visitors per year, total in both parks plus surrounding communities, the exposure is similar to that of an urban center.

•Given that these areas are in a remote location with confined transportation corridors, limited large-scale emergency response, etc. as well as a generally unprepared visitor-population to such hazards, this condition sets this area apart in an urban risk category.

•This is an important theme for the USGS NEHRP and Volcano Hazards Programs.

Page 4: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

Yellowstone-Teton Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment(2% in 50 years)

Western U.S. PSHA (USGS)

Yellowstone-Teton PSHA (White and Smith, 2006)

Y-T

Page 5: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

Integrated Yellowstone Seismic Network, 21 SP & 6 BB stations (current)(UUSS, YVO, including an ANSS-Teton station, NSF, Research Foundation)

-FBA

Page 6: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

YVO proposed 10-station upgrade to ANSS-standards

Page 7: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

USArray broadband adoption possibilities 2007-2008, 5 stations

Page 8: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

EarthScope-PBO 5 borehole dilatometer strainmeters, 2006-2008

Page 9: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

EarthScope-PBO 5 three-component borehole dilatometers and seismometers, 2006-2008

Page 10: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

Yellowstone GPS Network, 22 stations current/being installed(EarthScope-PBO, UU, YVO)

- 2006 install

Page 11: 29 deaths, destroyed infrastructure, and made permanent changes in Yellowstone geysers. $15M in damage (‘59 $) and $100M+ (2006 $)! Rupture of the 1959

An Integrated Yellowstone Monitoring Network (UU, YVO, UUSS, PBO, ANSS, USArray)

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