2nd annual malthus lecture "feeding the world sustainably" by ismail serageldin

Feeding the World Sustainably: Reflections, Issues, and Suggestions

Ismail Serageldin2nd Malthus Lecture

IFPRI – Washington, DC14 July 2011

Outline

• Challenging Malthus• On Hunger • On Hunger And Poverty• Food Security• The Gender Dimension• The Environmental Dimension• The Role Of science• The Power Of Policy• Transforming Global Agriculture• Envoi

Challenging Malthus

Challenging Malthus

• Malthus was wrong• He could never have

imagined a world with 6.7 billion people

• Human ingenuity was able to provide more food out of the same resources

• Hunger and famine persist for other reasons

In USA Today: 20 % Of Children and 65% Of Adults Are Obese

The Abolitionists

William Wilberforced. 1833

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Abolishing Slavery

Abraham Lincoln Frederick Douglas

We Must Abolish Hunger!

We must become

The New Abolitionists!

So far, we could abolish hunger…But… Things can change…

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World Population, in Billions 1950-2050

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

Malthus Strikes Back!

• Malthus was wrong up to now

• What about a world of 10 Billion, with richer diets and increasing animal proteins?

• What about our energy policies and climate change?

On Hunger

We take abundant food for granted

BUTAbout One Billion persons are chronically

malnourished!

http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/es/Hunger_Portal/Hunger_Map_2010b.pdf



Sub-Saharan Africa Remains most vulnerable region

After prolonged drought, Again, Today, Famine

Stalks Millions in East Africa

(Source: The Economist July 9, 2011, p.35

Humanitarian Food Aid will continue to

be needed in hotspots and must

be provided for

Trends in world hunger, 2010

Global Hunger Index, 2010

Three equally weighted indicators constitute the GHI:

1. Undernourished as % of the population (reflecting the share of the population with insufficient dietary energy intake)

2. Underweight as % of Children < 5 years old (indicating the proportion of children suffering from low weight for their age)

3. Mortality rate of Children < 5 years old (partially reflecting the fatal synergy between inadequate dietary intake and unhealthy environments)


• > 5.0 Low hunger

• 5.0 - 9.9 Moderate hunger

• 10.0 - 19.9 Serious

• 20.0 - 29.9 Alarming

• ≥ 30.0 Extremely

alarmingThe index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no hunger) and 100 being the worst, although neither of these extremes is reached in practice.

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GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010

2010

GH

I

GNP per Capita, 2005-07

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Congo, Dem. Rep.

BurundiEritrea

EthiopiaChad

Sierra LeoneAngola

Djibouti

Cameroon

Congo, Rep.

NamibiaBotswana

GabonMauritius

South Africa

SwazilandGhana

MauritaniaLesotho UgandaCote d’Ivoire

SenegalBenin

Guinea

Malawi Gambia

MaliKenya

Nigeria

Tanzania

Togo

Guinea-Bissau

MozambiqueRwanda

Eritrea Zambia

Niger

Central African Rep.Madagascar

Comoros

Burkina Faso

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

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GNP per Capita, 2005-07

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Yemen

MoroccoSyrian Arab. Rep.

Jordan

Egypt

TunisiaAlgeria

Lebanon

Iran, Islamic Republic

TurkeyLibya Saudi Arabia

2010

GH

I

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

GNP per Capita and Global Hunger Index, 2010

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

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Kevin Carter’s Pulitzer Prize winning photo 1994

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Kevin Carter(1960 - 1994)

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On Hunger And Poverty

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The Primary Cause Of Hunger Is Extreme Poverty

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Amartya Sen on Famines

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Norman Borlaug(1914 – 2009)

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Food whether you buy it or grow it yourself

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Observation: Many rural poor continue to pay for their food needs

Source: cited in http://www.ifad.org/rural/rpr2010/background/9.pdf

Sellers

Buyers

Self-Sufficient

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So we have to reduce the price f food, by increasing production

sustainably, reducing waste, and ensuring access

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What about the poor small-holder farmers who are major producers of food? They will become even

poorer…

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Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.10June2003Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 2002 data update)Source: World Bank Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets

0

100

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300

600

900

1200

1500

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e p

rice

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Rice production

Riceprice

Raise productivity for small-holder farmers faster than the prices drop

Trends in world rice production and price adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

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Rice production

Riceprice

Raise productivity of small-holder farmers faster than the price of food drops

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2002

Year

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(mil

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)

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

Ric

e p

rice

s (2

002

US

$/to

n)

World rice production and prices adjusted for inflation, 1961-2002

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Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times,

access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality,

produced in a sustainable manner.

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An Enormous Gap Exists Between the Rich and the Poor…

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53/480Rich and Poor in Sao Paulo

source: http://mindblog.dericbownds.net/2007/10/rich-and-poor.html

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It is not just the absence of income that defines poverty

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It is marginalization, deprivation and social exclusion

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Loss of dignity

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Rural and Urban Poverty in Developing Countries

Source: IFPRI estimate from World Bank data.

Rural poor70.0%

Urban poor

30.0%

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The Ultra Poor require special help

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Much Economic Analysis Erases the Human Factor

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Thoughtful use of multiple indicators for analysis will lead

to richer and more nuanced policy and program design

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MPAT:Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool

(Developed by IFAD)

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MPAT

Organizational diagram of MPAT's components and subcomponents

MPAT

7 Farm Assets7.1 Land tenure7.2 Land quality7.3 Crop inputs7.4 Livestock/aquaculture

8 Non-Farm Assets8.1 Employment & skills8.2 Financial services

8.3 Fixed assets & remittances

2. Domestic Water Supply2.1 Quality2.2 Availability2.3 Access

1 Food & Nutrition 1.1Security Consumption1.2 Access stability1.3 Nutrition quality

6 Education6.1 Quality6.2 Availability6.3 Access

3. Health & Healthcare3.1 Health status3.2 Access & affordability3.3 Healthcare quality

4. Sanitation & Hygiene4.1Toilet facility4.2Waste management4.3 Hygiene practices

10 Gender & Social Equality 10.1 Access to education10.2 Access to healthcare

10.3 Social equality

9 Exposure & Resilience to Shocks

9.1 Exposure9.2 Coping ability

9.3 Recovery ability

5 Housing, Clothing & Energy5.1 Housing structure quality5.2 Clothing 5.3 Energy sources

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Urban poverty

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Reaching the Poorest

Garbage pickers in the Philippines

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Urban Poverty

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Three Key strategies to cope with Urban Poverty and Hunger

• Reduce the price of food

• Increase the opportunities for employment of the poor

• Increase the returns to the kind of skills and assets that the poor have

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The Urban Poor mostly buy their food

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And food is a major part of their budget – Hence their wellbeing is very sensitive to the

price of food

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The poor lack the skills for the high Tech jobs the market offers, and are unlikely to get these skills quickly

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Urban Agriculture on roofs and

between buildings on vacant land

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On Hunger And Rural Poverty

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Reform Policies And Markets

• Remove urban bias– Roads– Education– Health– Etc.

• Improve access to markets• Reduce post harvest losses

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Challenges Facing Small Farms

• Globalization, including super-markets even in poor countries.

• Low world market prices for agriculture.

• Climate change. • HIV/AIDS • Continuing population growth that is

making small farms smaller. • No political voice.

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Food Security

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Food security is to ensure for each individual, at all times,

access to the food they need in enough quantity and quality,

produced in a sustainable manner.

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Food Security

• Not Just production, also access• Not Just output, also process• Not Just technology, also policy• Not Just global, also national• Not Just national, also household• Not Just rural, also urban• Not Just amount, also content

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Food Security


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Food Security


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Food Security


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Food Security


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Food Security


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Food Security


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Food Security


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Understanding Food Security

Short Term Medium Term

Long Term

Local Access, Nutrition

National Policies Research Investment

Global Sustainable Production, Fair Trade

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Understanding Food Security

Short Term Medium Term

Long Term

Local Access, Nutrition

National Policies Research Investment

Global Sustainable Production, Fair Trade

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Global Food ProductionMust Grow by+40% by 2030

&+70% by 2050

Opening statement by IFAD President at the Jeddah Economic Forum 2010: “The Global Economy in 2020” http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2010/jeddah.htm

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Food Security and Production

• Production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for food security

• Focusing on the small-holder farmer in developing countries is key to environmental protection, poverty reduction and food security

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“We are all on this earth as guests of the green plants and those who tend them.”

-- M.S. Swaminathan

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The response is to produce differently, not less

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Seven Statements About Food Security

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• Increase production and productivity

• Better management

• Reduce losses, reduce waste

• Manage vulnerability (CC)

• BioFortification

• BioFuels

• International Trade

Food Security: Seven Statements

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• BioFuels



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How to reduce prices without harming the poor farmers who

produce food?

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Rice production

Riceprice


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2002

Year

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)

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600

900

1200

1500

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s (2

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• BioFuels



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SRI has increased output dramatically, with the same inputs

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• BioFuels



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In the poor countries, post-harvest losses reach up to 30% of the crops

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Reduce Post-Harvest Losses

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In the rich countries: Up to 30% of cooked food is thrown out

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Up to 20% of purchased food is thrown out unused, in its wrapper

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X

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• BioFuels



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Homeless, nameless…

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Address Short-term Vulnerability

• Most farmers live precariously

• Downside is devastating

• Climate change is increasing vulnerability

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Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

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Climate Variability (Change?)Index of Rainfall in Sahel 1941-1990

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Source: Departure from standard deviation; Climate Prediction Center 1991, Prrsentation by South Africa at Camdessus Panel meetings

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Extension Must bring Research To These Farmers

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• BioFuels



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Better Nutrition

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White and Golden Rice

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• BioFuels



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In addition to the first generation of biofuels (Ethanol from Corn)

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Ethanol from Corn contributes to 2008

food price spike

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It is wrong to burn the food of the

poor to drive the cars of the rich!

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We must move to second generation biofuels

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• BioFuels



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US Ag Subsidies 1994-2005

% of recipients

% of Pay-ments

Number of recipients

Payments Received

Payments per recipient

Top 1% 23% 31,294 $33.7 Billion $1.07 million

Top 4% 50% 125,176 $71.3 Billion $569,650

Top 10% 72% 312,940 $104 Billion $332,793

Top 20% 87% 625,880 $126 Billion $200,946

Lower 80% 13% 2,503,522 $18 Billion $7,211

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Cows Vs. People

• A typical cow in the European Union receives a government subsidy of $2.20 a day –

• more than what 2.5 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.

• Twice what 1.2 billion of the world's poorest people live on every day.

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$2.20 / day $0.90 / day

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• BioFuels



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The Gender Dimension

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And We Must Never Forget the Gender Dimension…

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Women In Africa

• Produce80% of the food

• Receive 10% of the wages

• Own1% of the land

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Women Empowerment

• Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture

• Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity

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Women Empowerment

• Women have unequal opportunity in:– Education– Health care– Income– Credit– Employment– Assets– Decision-making

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The key vector to fight infant mortality and child malnutrition is

Maternal Health

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From the sixth month of pregnancy…

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…To the 18th month of life…

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The period when children are most vulnerable to hunger

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Malnurished mothers give birth to low birth weight babiesand

Malnourished children often suffer from growth retardation and weight loss

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Breast Milk has the Best Nutritional Value

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A Healthy Mother…

• Gives birth to a baby of normal weight.

• Breast feed her baby well.

• Will be able to find good food to wean her baby.

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The Environmental Dimension

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Climate ChangeThe Most serious Issue Facing Humanity

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Hurricane Bonnie

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Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

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Source: National Geographic, August, 2005

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Can this be just a “natural phenomenon”?

NO!

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Should we be concerned?

YES!

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182/480Source: The Economist – The World in 2007

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How serious is the problem?

VERY!

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The Nile:Reaches Cairo with 12 million Tons of salts

Reaches the sea with 34 million tons of salts

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Impact on Nile Delta

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But Also increased Floods, Droughts, Forest Fires and Desertification

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Climate Change and

Food Security:

Changes in Length of growing period 2000-2005

Thronton, et.al., cited in Greg Mock and Paul Steele, “Power to the poor: tapping the wealth of ecosystems”, in Environment, vol 48: 1; Jan/Feb 2006, p. 15

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We need urgent action on bothMitigation

&Adaptation

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Mitigation: Reducing Emissions

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How will all that affect HUNGER?

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We observe…

• Floods in Pakistan

• Droughts in Russia

• Hurricanes hitting the Caribbean and the USA

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We observe…




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Droughts and Floods?

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Yes, The Models predict that Both will co-exist

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We observe…




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Hurricanes and floods

in USA

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All these intemperate weather conditions lead to stresses on

food production

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The Food on which we all depend

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Drought Devastates Agriculture

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That leads to More Hunger

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Above all, Science must be mobilized

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The Role Of Science

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From the Green Revolution to the Doubly Green Revolution

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AREA SAVEDIndia -- All Cereals,1960-1990

Total production: 1961: 87million tons -- 1990 :197 million tons

50

100

150

200

250

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Millions of Hectares

AREA USED

AREA SAVED

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Doubly green revolution

• More genetically diverse crops• Less chemical inputs (IPM and other

means)• Integrated soil, water and nutrient

management• Small holder farming system context,

environmentally and socio-economically

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Recognize The Gender Dimension

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Promoting Alternatives to Slash and Burn

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AlwaysPro-Poor

Pro-Women Pro-Environment

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A Double Shift in the Research Paradigm:

-- Contextualization-- The new life sciences

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• Land

• Water

• Plants

• Animals

• The Role Of Aquatic Resources

The Role Of Science

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• Land

• Water

• Plants

• Animals


The Role Of Science

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Land Use Transitions

Source: J.A. Foley, et.al., Global Consequences of Land Use, in Science, 22 July 2005, v.309, pp.570-574

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• Land

• Water

• Plants

• Animals


The Role Of Science

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Water Is Also a Constraint

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One Calorie = One Liter

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More Crop Per Drop!

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• Land

• Water

• Plants

• Animals


The Role Of Science

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Three Themes in Rice Researchfor Increased Production

Source: Gurdev Khush, Lecture at BioVision Lyon 2005

Yield (t/ha)

Ceiling

Current

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Raise the Yield Ceiling

Yield (t/ha)

Ceiling

Current

A

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Yield (t/ha)

Ceiling

Current

A

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Close the Yield Gap

Yield (t/ha)

Ceiling

Current

A B

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Close the Yield Gap

Yield (t/ha)

Ceiling

Current

A B

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Close the Yield Gap

Sustain the Current Yield

Yield (t/ha)

Ceiling

Current

A B C

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Close the Yield Gap

Sustain the Current Yield

Yield (t/ha)

Ceiling

Current

A B C

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Let’s take them by turn

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Technologies for Increasing the Yield Potential

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Different Plant Types of Rice Conventional Improved NPT

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New Plant Type Rice

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Technologies for Closing the Yield Gap

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Biological cost of weeds, Diseases and Insects

CropPercent of Yield Potential

Weeds Disease Insects

Rice 10.6 9.0 27.3

Wheat 9.8 9.5 5.4

Maize 13.1 9.6 12.9

Millets & Sorghum

17.9 10.3 9.5

Barley 8.8 8.3 3.9

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Biological Control

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IPM: Working With Nature

• Bio-control• Pheromone trap• Need-based chemicals• Host-plant resistance• Etc.

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Reaction to Bacterial BlightResistant Susceptible

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Stem-Borer Larvae from Transgenic Rice (top) and Control (bottom)

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4. Raise Agricultural Productivity

• Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities

• Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)

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• increasing the yield potential

• closing the yield gap, including pest

management

• Soil, water & nutrient management

• Labor & capital input management

• developing nutritious crops (more later)

Technologies Needed For:

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• Land

• Water

• Plants

• Animals


The Role Of Science

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Increasing demand for feed

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A Huge Increase In Feed Requirements

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Not Just for Food

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Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein)

Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29

Beef Pork Poultry Fish

25%

13%

5%

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Conversion Into Proteins(% of Feed that is converted to Protein)

Source: Time magazine, 18 July 2011, p. 29

Beef Pork Poultry Fish

25%

13%

5%

30%

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• Land

• Water

• Plants

• Animals


The Role Of Science

266/480Source: William S. Alevizon, Pisces Guide to Caribbean Reef Ecology, Gulf Publishing Company (1994).

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Global Seafood consumption has increased dramatically, and natural fish stocks are heavily overfished

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Global Aquaculture Production:1950 = one million tons2008 = 47.3 million tons

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But Aquaculture is still only about 50% of consumption in 2011

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Our Reefs Today:The Challenge and the Response

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• Land

• Water

• Plants

• Animals


The Role Of Science

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But

What about

Biotechnology

?

The Role Of Science

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Biotechnology

• Promise and perils• Partnerships for benign

applications• Public-private• CGIAR-NARS-AROs-NGOs

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Global Area of Biotech Crops.Million of Hectares (1996 to 2009)

1996 2009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997

200

180

140

120

80

60

40

20

0

100

160

14 million farmers in 25 countries planted 134 million hectares (330 million acres in 2009, a sustained increase of 7% or 9 million hectares (22 million acres) compared to 2008.

DevelopingIndustrials

Total HectaresTrait Hectares

Source: Clive James, 2009.

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Modern biotechnology

• Raises profound issues• Despite controversy, has enormous

promise• Can do things we cannot do by

conventional breeding – e.g. Vitamin A rice

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It is a tool, like any other.It should not be demonized nor

assumed to be a miracle.

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The Power Of Policy

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Policy Counts

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Sustainable development does not mean that people will live worse…

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Let’s look at income and health

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Life Expectancy versus Per Capita GNP Best Fit Relation by Decade

(Thousands)

Per Capita GNP (1980 US$)

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

19871980

1970

19501961

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

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(Thousands)


Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

19871980

1970

19501961

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

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(Thousands)


Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

19871980

1970

19501961

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

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(Thousands)


Life

Exp

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ncy

19871980

1970

19501961

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

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That is to say that well conceived, well targeted policies can be the equivalent of a general increase in average incomes by 8X with

laissez-faire

8X!!!

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Transforming Global Agriculture

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Agriculture Is A Complex FieldSummary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009

Source: http://www.agassessment.org/docs/IAASTD_GLOBAL_SDM_JAN_2008.pdf

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Managing Agriculture is a complex task:Summary for Decision Makers of the Global Report, IAASTD, 2009

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Ten Commandments For Global Agriculture

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The Ten Commandments For Transforming Global Agriculture

1. Reform Policies And Markets 2. Focus On Small-holder Farmers3. Husband Natural Resources4. Raise Agricultural Productivity5. Improve Nutritional Content6. Address Short-term Vulnerability7. Empower Women8. Reach Out To The Ultra-poor9. Support Science 10. Translate Rhetoric Into Action

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1. Reform Policies And Markets

• Globally: Fair trade

• Locally: – Remove urban bias– Improve access to markets– reduce post harvest losses

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1. Reform Policies And Markets

• Globally: Fair trade

• Locally: – Remove urban bias (educ., health, etc.)– Improve access to markets– reduce post harvest losses

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So, dealing with global poverty requires that we address rural poverty…AND

A special focus on small-holder farmers in developing countries in particular to address the problem of food security

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3. Husband Natural Resources

• Agriculture is the major interface between people and nature

• Sustainable development is beneficial for all

• Resource degradation hits the poor worst

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The Most Important Environmental Action Is to Reduce the Need for

More Land Under Cultivation

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It will preserve habitats and biodiversity

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4. Raise Agricultural Productivity

• Productivity must rise faster than price declines to generate surpluses for the small-holder farmers and reduce their poverty as their cheaper products help reduce the poverty in the cities

• Measure in terms of Total Factor Productivity (land, water, labor, energy and chemical inputs)

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Rice production

Riceprice


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2002

Year

Pro

du

ctio

n o

f u

nm

ille

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Future Challenges

To Produce More Food

Increasing

Population

Less Water

Less Land

Less Labor

Less Chemicals

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5. Improve Nutritional Content

• Enormous health benefits

• Bio-fortification is just the beginning

• Edible vaccines?

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Without With

Sweet Potatoes with and Without Beta-Carotene

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Longer, More Productive Lives

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6. Address Short-term Vulnerability

• Most farmers live precariously

• Downside is devastating

• Climate change is increasing vulnerability

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7. Empower Women

• Essential to recognize the gender dimension of agriculture

• Empowering Women results in major improvements in infant mortality, school enrolments, child morbidity

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8. Reach Out To The Ultra-Poor

• Market incentives do not work for the ultra-poor

• Trickle-down does not work

• Special Programs will be needed

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9. Support Science

• We need more support for science in developing countries

• Not just technology

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The Divide in S&T Capacity

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RhetoricDeclarationsPlansTargets

Action

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“We have the capacity to eliminate

hunger from the face of the earth in

our lifetime. We need only the

will.”

President John F. KennedyWorld Food Congress 1963

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Envoi

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All the Parts Are Essential:They Reinforce Each Other

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The Whole Is More Than the Sum of the Parts

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Diagnosis

• How to find the key pressure points in the system

• How to choose interventions that will have maximum impact on these

• Must focus on raising productivity in the complex ecosystem of the small holder farm

• Must bring science and other inputs to the farmers

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No policy or program will ever be sufficient alone

We need a range of interventions…

Many existing policies need to be adjusted and many new programs need to be developed.

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Several policies and programs need to be developed for:

• Agriculture• Environment• Social Issues• Political Issues• Participation• Gender• Urbanization• Poverty• Infrastructure• Economy

• Trade• Marketing• Public/Private

Interface• Finance and credit• Local, National,

Régional and International Issues

• And more …

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It can be Mastered and Solved

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Dare to dream!

Dare to be bold!

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The specter of Malthus still haunts the world…

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We can abolish Hunger

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Our groupThe New Abolitionists

Limited size, limited resources

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The Oppositioncynics, entrenched interests & the inertia of current injustice

Large size, unlimited resources

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But we will surprise the World!

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Thank You

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The images used in this presentation are strictly for the educational purpose of this lecture. Any use by anyone for

any other purpose should be after consulting the copyright owners of

these pictures

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2nd annual malthus lecture "feeding the world sustainably" by ismail serageldin

Technology