2q:2016 capital markets outlook - alliancebernstein...cmo 2q 2016 | 4 historical analysis does not...

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The information herein reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgments as of the date of this document, which are subject to change. In preparing this document, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. There is no guarantee that any forecasts or opinions in this material will be realized. Information should not be construed as investment advice. Investment Products Offered • Are Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • Are Not Bank Guaranteed 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK

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Page 1: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

The information herein reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgments as of the date of this document, which are subject to change. In preparing this document, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. There is no guarantee that any forecasts or opinions in this material will be realized. Information should not be construed as investment advice.

Investment Products Offered

• Are Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • Are Not Bank Guaranteed

2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK

Page 2: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

1 | CMO 2Q 2016

Current assessment does not guarantee future results. As of March 31, 2016 Source: AB

The Big Picture

Global economic growth remains modest, with the support of more monetary easing

Developed-market growth is mixed; emerging world faster than developed but with challenges

After The Beta Trade theme continues to play out, with higher volatility and muted returns

Key recent volatility drivers include concerns about oil, China and global growth challenges

Investors should embrace adding alpha and incorporating downside protection

Fixed Income: compelling credit opportunity; don’t abandon global rates; municipals remain attractive

Equities: capture growth through meaningful high-conviction active opportunities

Alternatives: valuations support downside protection and security-selection opportunities

Page 3: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

2 | CMO 2Q 2016

–2.6 –1.5 –2.1

1.8 1.7

0.8 3.3

–0.2 1.3

–4.5

–14.9 –0.8

–4.4 1.4

Past performance does not guarantee future results. As of March 31, 2016 Global corporates Japan and euro-area government bonds in hedged USD terms. All other non-US returns in unhedged USD terms. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect the fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. *Europe, Australasia and the Far East †Returns reflect Morningstar US Open-End fund category averages. Source: Barclays, Morningstar, MSCI, S&P Dow Jones and AB

Returns in US Dollars

–0.6 0.0

–1.4

3.7 4.6

3.2 1.7

3.4 4.5

3.4

5.7 –3.0 –1.5

1.4

Another Volatile Quarter Ends in Mixed Returns

Equities

Government Bonds

Credit

Alternatives†

2015 Returns (Percent) 1Q:2016 Returns (Percent)

Japan

US High Yield

US

Euro Area

Emerging-Market Debt

Long/Short Equity

Multialternative Nontraditional Bond

Global Corporate

EAFE*

US Large-Cap

Emerging Markets

US Small-Cap

Municipals

Page 4: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

3 | CMO 2Q 2016

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As of December 31, 2015 Source: Bloomberg

Earnings Recessions Don’t Always Equal Recessions…or Bad Markets

Equity Market Earnings Growth and Performance

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

20

25

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Returns During Earnings Recessions Earnings

Recession Period S&P 500 Returns

2Q 1990–4Q 1990 –0.1

2Q 1991–4Q 1991 +13.9

2Q 1992–4Q 1992 +10.4

2Q 1993–4Q 1993 +5.5

2Q 1996–4Q1996 +16.7

2Q 1998–4Q 1998 +12.8

2Q 1999–4Q 1999 +15.3

2Q 2001–4Q 2001 –9.7

2Q 2002–4Q 2002 –22.3

2Q 2008–1Q 2009 –38.1

1Q 2015–4Q 2015 +1.4

Median +5.5

Median ex Global Financial Crisis +7.9

Earnings Recessions

Per

cent

Economic and Earnings

Recessions

–38

S&P 500 Returns

Earnings Growth

Page 5: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

4 | CMO 2Q 2016

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right display as of March 31, 2016 *Emerging, global and developed rates are December 31, 2015 estimates. Country rates are target policy rates as of March 31, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Markit, national sources and AB

Modest Growth, Low Inflation and Accommodative Policy

Key Policy Interest Rates* Percent

Purchasing Managers’ Index Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change in CPI

4.9

2.0

0.3

–0.1 –0.4 –0.5 –0.7 –0.8

Em

ergi

ng

Glo

bal

Dev

elop

ed

Japa

n

Eur

ope

Sw

eden

Den

mar

k

Sw

itzer

land

47

49

51

53

55

57

59

61

63

10 11 12 13 14 15 160

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

EM

DM

EM

DM

Global

Global

Page 6: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

5 | CMO 2Q 2016

Country/ Region

GDP (%) Inflation (%) Expected

Policy Rate Path

FX Change (%)

FX

Forecast (%) The Latest 2015 2016 2015 2016

Global 2.6 2.6 1.6 1.9 — — — Moderate global growth in 2016—but the pace isn’t uniform regionally

Developed Countries 1.9 1.9 0.2 0.9 —

Developed-market growth expected to be dominated by US

Emerging Countries 3.7 3.6 3.9 3.5 —

Growth challenged by commodities, geopolitical and policy risks

US 2.4 2.7 0.1 1.4 — — US growth remains solid; rate hikes delayed owing to global economic/financial concerns

UK 2.3 2.0 0.0 0.7 –4.1 –1.5 Solid growth but political noise and risk of Brexit likely to dominate the headlines

Euro Area 1.5 1.3 0.0 0.2 5.7 –3.4 Negative rates and expanded QE purchases designed to combat low inflation

Japan 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 6.9 –4.4 Debate about even more negative rates likely to continue amid slower growth and inflation

China 6.9 6.3 1.4 1.6 –4.4 1.3 More policy stimulus as weak “old economy” sectors weigh on growth

Brazil –3.8 –3.5 9.3 8.2 –10.9 –10.1 Continued fiscal, political and monetary struggles

Historical and current analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results. As of April 1, 2016 GDP represents year-over-year change in real terms. Inflation represents year-over-year change in Consumer Price Index. Expectations for monetary policy are through end of 2016. FX change is currency spot return for last 12 months vs. US dollar; FX forecast is AB economists’ return projections for next six months vs. US dollar. Source: AB

Modest Global Growth Projected for 2016

Page 7: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

6 | CMO 2Q 2016

China: No Hard Landing Expected, but Question Marks Remain

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through December 31, 2015; right display through March 30, 2016 *China Foreign Exchange Trading System Source: Bloomberg, China Real Information Corp., National Bureau of Statistics of China and AB

China’s Economy Rebalances GDP by Sector (Percent)

Divergence Continues to Widen Key 30 Cities 2015 Inventory Level (Months of Sales)

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Secondary (Industry) Sector

Tertiary (Services) Sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Nan

jing

Sha

ngha

iH

efei

Don

ggua

nX

iam

enZh

engz

hou

Gua

ngzh

ouFu

zhou

Che

ngdu

Bei

jing

Nin

gbo

Cha

ngzh

ouC

hang

chun

Qin

gdao

Hai

kou

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3

RMB Remains Steady Against Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Oct

15

Nov

15

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

December 31, 2014 = 100

CFETS RMB Basket*

CNH/USD

CNY/USD

Page 8: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

7 | CMO 2Q 2016

US: Recession Worries Not Supported by Data Readings

…or in Housing Building Permits and Home Prices

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left display through March 31, 2016; middle and right display through December 31, 2015 *S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index; January 2000 = 100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Haver Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, US Census Bureau, S&P, US Department of Labor and AB

Recession Watch: Not in Orders… ISM New Orders Index Level

…or in Jobs and Income… Jobless Rate and Wage Growth

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15

Recession

50

100

150

200

400

900

1,400

1,900

2,400

85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15

Recession

0

1

2

3

4

5

60

2

4

6

8

10

1200 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Perc

ent

YoY Percent Change

Unemployment Rate (Left Scale, Inverted)

Private Sector Wage Growth

Thou

sand

s

Home Price Index*

New Building Permits (Left Scale)

Page 9: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

8 | CMO 2Q 2016

Neither past nor forecast performance is a guarantee of future results. Trailing returns as of June 30, 2015. Current yields as of April 1, 2016. Median forecast based on proprietary AB forecasts as of December 31, 2015. Current yield represented by yield to worst. Annualized returns in US dollars. Markets are represented from left to right by Barclays Municipal Bond, Barclays US Aggregate, Barclays US High Yield, S&P 500, MSCI EAFE (unhedged). An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect the fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. Source: Barclays, FactSet, MSCI, S&P and AB

Lower Expected Returns… Outlook for Returns (Percent)

The Great Beta Trade Is Likely Over

…Result in an Inconvenient Beta Truth Expected Returns for a 60/40 Blend

Expected Return 4%–5%

Standard Deviation

Inflation and Taxes ??

Bonds 40%

Stocks 60%

1.9 2.2

8.2

5.9 7.6 4.5

3.4

8.6

17.3

10.0

USMunis

US IGBonds

US HYBonds

USEquities

DevelopedInt'l Equities

Fixed-Income Yield to Worst/Five-Year Equity Median Forecast

Past Five-Year Average Return

Page 10: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

9 | CMO 2Q 2016

Option-Adjusted Spreads: March 31, 2013–March 31, 2016 Credit Valuations Remain Attractive…

656 588

418

622

1,306

163 215

607

455 420

712

131

452

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

US Corp.HY

US Corp.HY

ex Energy

US Corp.HY BB

HY B HY CCC US Corp.IG

US Corp.IG

BBB

BBBCMBS

CRT EMDCorp.

EMDLocal

EURCorp. IG

EUR HY

US High Yield Investment-Grade

Corporate Securitized Emerging-

Market Debt European

Credit

Current Spread

Low

Basi

s Po

ints

High

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. All nongovernment sectors are represented by Barclays indices except for CRT (Credit risk transfer), which is represented by the STACR 2014-DN1, Class M-3 security. BBB CMBS is represented by a custom CMBS New Issue Index created from Barclays. EMD Corp. is represented by J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified and EMD Local is represented by J.P. Morgan GBI-EM. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect the fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. Source: Barclays, J.P. Morgan and AB

Page 11: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

10 | CMO 2Q 2016

…Even After the Recent Market Rebound

US High Yield Typically Rebounds Swiftly from Negative-Return Periods Total Returns (Percent)

–1

19

11 13

2 2

–6

5

–1

29

11

3

12

2

–26

58

15

5

16

7 2

–4

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Left display as of March 31, 2016, middle and right display as of December 31, 2015 *US High Yield is represented by BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II. The above returns are calculated based on month-end option-adjusted spread levels that are greater than 600, or 800 basis points (b.p.). Source: Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morningstar and AB

Despite Recent Gains, Valuations Still Near Year-End Levels Option-Adjusted Spread*

Current Valuations Historically Have Translated to Attractive Returns Historical Average Forward Returns

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Average

?

Spreads 600 b.p. to 800 b.p.

6-Month 12-Month

US HY S&P500 US HY S&P500

0.65% –2.48% 6.04% –1.42%

Spreads Above 800 b.p.

6-Month 12-Month

US HY S&P500 US HY S&P500

17.91% 8.15% 30.33% 15.93%

Basi

s Po

ints

Page 12: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

11 | CMO 2Q 2016

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and right displays as of December 31, 2015; middle display as of March 31, 2016 Source: Barclays, J.P. Morgan and AB

High-Yield Returns More Like 2002 Than 2008 High-Yield Sector Returns 2002 2008 2015

US High-Yield Corporates –1.4 –26.2 –4.5

Basic Industry 7.6 –33.6 –17.6

Capital Goods 15.6 –19.3 0.1

Communications –19.9 –28.9 –1.7

Consumer Cyclicals 11.0 –32.5 1.7

Consumer Non-Cyclicals 6.2 –13.7 2.1

Energy 8.2 –26.3 –23.5

Financial Institutions 5.7 –26.3 2.4

Technology –2.3 –34.9 0.7

Transportation –17.9 –29.5 –0.5

Utilities –13.2 –16.7 –5.2

2016 Volatility More Pronounced in Energy (Percent)

Defaults Mostly Contained to Single Sector Percent of Defaults

25.8

45.2

60.0

Telecom2001

Telecom2002

Energy2015

–19.0

27.0

–3.0

6.9

YTD EndingFeb 11, 2016

Feb 11, 2016 toMar 31, 2016

Energy US High Yield ex Energy

High-Yield Challenges Focused in a Few Sectors, Similar to 2002

Page 13: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

12 | CMO 2Q 2016

Not All Lower Rated Securities Are Created Equal

Historical information provided for illustrative purposes only. Left display as of December 31, 2015; middle display defaults through September 15, 2015 and US home price index through July 31, 2015; right display as of March 31 2016. A credit rating is a measure of the quality and safety of a bond or portfolio, based on the issuer’s financial condition. AAA is highest (best) and D is lowest (worst). Ratings are subject to change. Corporate default rates are for global issuers, which were originally issued with the shown credit rating. *Credit Risk Transfer security represented by STACR 2014-DN3 M3. Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Freddie Mac, Intex Solutions, J.P. Morgan, Moody's Analytics, National Association of Realtors, S&P/Case-Shiller, S&P Capital IQ, US Federal Reserve Board and AB

Mortgages Provide Less-Volatile Diversification than Corporates Option Adjusted Spread (b.p.)

High Defaults Make Lower-Rated Corporate Bonds Unattractive Five-Year Cumulative Default Rates 1983–2015 (Percent)

Mortgages Supported by Declining Defaults and Rising Home Prices

9

22

36

BB B CCC–C 130

150

170

190

0

1

2

3

4

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Index C

urre

nt to

30-

Day

Def

ault

Rat

e (P

erce

nt)

Default Rate (Left Scale)

400

500

600

700

800

900

Dec

01

Dec

13

Dec

25

Jan

06

Jan

18

Jan

30

Feb

11

Feb

23

Mar

06

Mar

18

Mar

30

High Yield Narrows More

Third Avenue Makes the News,

High Yield Widens More

CRT Security—Issued by FNMA*

High Yield US Home

Price Index

Page 14: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

13 | CMO 2Q 2016

Current analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays as of December 31, 2015; right display as of March 31, 2016 Global bonds hedged is represented by the Barclays Global Aggregate Hedged to USD. US bonds is represented by Barclays US Aggregate. Global bonds unhedged is represented by Barclays Global Aggregate USD Unhedged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. *Credit rating is represented by the Barclays methodology. Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, Morningstar and AB

As US Policy Shifts, Time to Look Globally for Interest-Rate Exposure

Currency Hedging Can Make Low-Yielding Bonds More Attractive

Global Outperforms When US Falls Up vs. Down Capture March 1990–December 2015

2.3

–0.9

2.2

–0.7

Average QuarterlyReturn When

US Aggregate IndexWas Positive

Average Quarterly Return When

US Aggregate IndexWas Negative

US Aggregate Index Global Aggregate Index

Up Capture: 96% Down Capture: 70%

10-Year Bond Yield

10-Year Yield

(Hedged) Credit

Rating8

Australia 2.61 0.89 AAA

US 1.77 1.77 AAA

Canada 1.22 1.27 AAA

Germany 0.15 1.26 AAA

New Zealand 2.94 0.99 AA+

UK 1.41 1.50 AA+

France 0.49 1.60 AA+

Japan ‒0.03 0.96 A+

Spain 1.43 2.54 BBB

Italy 1.22 2.33 BBB

Portugal 2.93 4.04 BB

Why Limit Opportunities to the US as Policy Tightens?

Cut or Stable Hikes

Australia US

Euro Area Brazil

Japan Mexico

Norway

Sweden

UK

Canada

Page 15: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

14 | CMO 2Q 2016

Tax Revenues Remain Solid Year-over-Year State and Local Gov’t Tax Receipts and GDP

….amid Strong Demand Flows into Muni Bond Funds

Muni Supply Is Declining… Change in Municipal Bonds Outstanding (USD Billions)*

Municipals: Supportive Technicals and Strengthening Fundamentals

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Left display as of December 31, 2015, middle display through December 31, 2015, right display through September 30, 2015 *Refinancing and combined Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, National League of Cities and AB

168

213

92

155

100

–53

–5

–29 –40

–15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 –20

–15

–10

–5

0

5

10

10 11 12 13 14 15

USD

Billi

ons

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15

Perc

ent GDP

Current Tax Receipts

Page 16: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

15 | CMO 2Q 2016

Roll Plus Yield (Percent)

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of March 18, 2016 Nominal yields. A credit rating is a measure of the quality and safety of a bond or portfolio, based on the issuer’s financial condit ion. AAA is highest (best) and D is lowest (worst). Ratings are subject to change. Barclays long indices are used for each respective rating category. *Roll is the natural price gain that a bond experiences as it ages, assuming interest rates are unchanged. Yield advantage shown is for 10-year municipal securities. Short taxable bonds are represented by Barclays 1-3 year US Aggregate ex Government. Source: Barclays, Investment Company Institute, J.P. Morgan, Municipal Market Data, US Federal Reserve and AB

Municipals: Still Attractive, but Positioning Matters Shorter Bonds: Look for opportunistic

positions in taxable bonds Intermediate Bonds: Focus on roll

and carry Longer Bonds: Dip down in

credit for an extra yield pickup

0.88 1.46 1.83 2.05 2.22 2.34

2.83 3.10 3.31

0.22

0.83

1.22 1.53 1.31 1.02

0.69 0.34 0.08

1.41

3.71

2 5 7 8 9 10 15 20 30Maturity (Years)

Yield Roll*Short Taxable BBB Muni

Page 17: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

16 | CMO 2Q 2016

Past performance and current forecasts do not guarantee future results. As of December 31, 2015 *Five-year annualized expected return for US equities uses proprietary AB forecasts. Display reflects composition of expected US equity returns. †Represents relative performance of Morningstar Open-End US Large-Cap managers vs. S&P 500 starting January 1, 1995, when the one-year (YoY) change in P/E was positive or negative when the market return was positive or negative over that same one-year period. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Source: Morningstar, S&P Dow Jones and AB

Equity Returns Will Likely Be Modest, but Active Management Can Help

Active Management Likely Poised to Outperform Relative Return (Percent)†

P/E Compression

P/E Expansion

Market Up +0.8% –2.5%

Market Down +2.9% +2.5%

Equity Returns Are Driven by Different Factors over Time S&P 500 Returns: Attribution by Source (Percent)

–0.1

8.4

14.1

2.7

3.7

2.4

2.4

2.2

Jul 2009– Jun 2012

Jul 2012– Sep 2015

Median Forecast* Jan 2016–Dec 2020

Income ReturnsPrice ReturnEarnings GrowthValuation Change16.4

13.5

5.9

Page 18: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

17 | CMO 2Q 2016

Historical and current analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results. As of March 31, 2016 Source: Barclays, Morningstar, S&P and AB

Equity Markets Saw Big Moves During the Year Number of Days Market Moved +/–1.5% or Greater

6

4

2 2 1

2

6

1 2

9

4

1

13

7

15

3Q:12

4Q:12

1Q:13

2Q:13

3Q:13

4Q:13

1Q:14

2Q:14

3Q:14

4Q:14

1Q:15

2Q:15

3Q:15

4Q:15

1Q:16

Volatility Persists at Market and Sector Levels

Reversal of Fortune: Defense in Favor Sector Returns: 1Q2016

Three-Year Average

16.6 15.6

5.6 5.0

2.6 1.6

–5.1 –5.5

Telecom

Consumer Staples

Technology

10.1 6.9 6.6

5.9

–2.5 –4.8

–8.4 –21.1

Consumer Staples

Energy

Industrials Utilities Materials

Financials Healthcare

Sector Returns: 2015

Technology

Consumer Discretionary Healthcare

Utilities

Industrials

Consumer Discretionary

Page 19: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

18 | CMO 2Q 2016

Equity Landscape Favors Profitability and Dividend Growth

Dividend Growers Look Cheap†

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

52 59 66 73 80 87 94 01 08 15

Rat

io (×

)

Dividend Growth Is Cheap

Dividend Yield Is Cheap

Safety Is Expensive, Profitability Is Not Valuation (P/E) Percentile Rank vs. History*

Safety Profitability

81

35

Expensive

Cheap

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of March 31, 2016 *Price-to-forward earnings discount/premium to market was compared to its history (1990 to 2015) to calculate the current attractiveness percentile within regions. Market capitalization-weighted attractiveness percentile averages (across US, Europe, and Japan) are reported. Free-cash-flow-to-assets used to measure profitability; beta used to measure safety. †Large-Capitalization Stocks; Highest Quintiles of Dividend Growth and Yield Ratio of Trailing-P/E Ratios Source: MSCI, Empirical Research Partners, S&P Compustat, Worldscope and AB

Page 20: 2Q:2016 CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK - AllianceBernstein...CMO 2Q 2016 | 4 Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left and middle displays through February 29, 2016; right

19 | CMO 2Q 2016

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left display through December 31, 2015; right display as of March 9, 2016 Forecast sales per share based on Bloomberg reported consensus An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect the fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. *Based on 457 of 502 companies reporting earnings for the fourth quarter of 2015. Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Source: Bloomberg, Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP), FactSet, Russell Investments, S&P Compustat, S&P Dow Jones and AB

It’s Challenging for Companies to Find Growth Today

S&P 500 Revenue Growth Is Generally Slowing… S&P 500 Trailing 12-Month Sales per Share

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

US

D

…and Half of the Index Has Negative Revenue Growth S&P 500 (Percent of Companies Reporting)*

21%

33%

31%

16%

<–10%

0% to –10%

0% to 10%

>10%

Rev

enue

Gro

wth

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20 | CMO 2Q 2016

Firms That Can Grow Are Poised to Lead—and They’re Cheap

Persistent Growth Is Inexpensive Today Relative Price/Forward Earnings of High-Persistent-Return Growth Stocks vs. Market†

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14

Rat

io (×

)

Average

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left display as of December 31, 2015; right display through February 29, 2016 *Universe consists of the top 1,000 companies by market cap each year from 1979 to 2015, with annual rebalancing. †Price to forward earnings of highest quintile of persistent profitability stocks relative to Russell 1000 Source: CRSP, FactSet, Russell Investments, S&P Compustat, S&P Dow Jones and AB

Sustainable Growth Is Uncommon, but Rewarding Top 1,000 Companies with Earnings Growth Rates ≥10%*

350

77

22

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.7

3.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

One Year Three Years Five Years

Excess (Percent)

Num

ber o

f Com

pani

es

0.9%

1.2%

2.7%

Number of Companies (Left Scale) Annualized

Excess Returns vs. S&P 500

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21 | CMO 2Q 2016

Smaller-Caps Have Given Back Performance Gains of Recent Years Index Returns July 1, 2015–March 31, 2016

After a Pullback, Small-Cap Valuations Are More Attractive

Smaller-Cap Stocks Are Attractively Valued After Correction Relative Valuations* Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000

Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left display as of March 31, 2016; right display through February 28, 2016 *Valuation composite is one-third price to forward earnings, one-third price to book and one-third price to sales. Source: Bloomberg, Russell Investments, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and AB

–10.1% Russell 2000

0.4% Russell 1000

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15

Rat

io (×

) Average

Small-Cap Is Cheap

Large-Cap Is Cheap

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22 | CMO 2Q 2016

High-Conviction Strategies Have Outperformed Passive Factors Annualized Relative Performance vs. S&P 500 (Percent) Jan 2004–Dec 2015

Higher-Conviction Equity Strategies Can Make a Big Difference

Even a Little Alpha Can Go a Long Way By Annual Equity Market Gains

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

USD

Years from Initial Investment

Equities at 6% Equities at 8% Equities at 9%

+21

+32

1.9 1.6

2.0

2.4

3.0

0.0

–0.3

0.6 0.7

1.4

Dividend Yield Value Quality Low Beta Momentum

Active High-Conviction Strategy Passive Factor Index Strategy

Past performance does not guarantee future results. As of December 31, 2015 Using data from Style Research, high-conviction strategies are defined as the top 20% of managers who consistently display a high-conviction characteristic in the eVestment US Large Cap Equity universe. Within each high-conviction category universe, the representative performance of skilled high-conviction strategies is the average of all managers whose performance is greater than that of the median manager over the period in which they reported. Monthly outlier returns are capped at the fifth percentile. A manager may be classified in more than one category. These numbers do not represent the performance history of any AB-managed product, but do include AB services if they meet the criteria of one of the universes. Factor index performance represents the returns of the MSCI indices—dividend yield: MSCI USA High Dividend Yield; value: MSCI USA Value; quality: MSCI USA Quality; low beta: MSCI USA Minimum Volatility; momentum: MSCI USA Momentum. These indices may not be investable and do not take into account transaction costs. Source: eVestment, MSCI, S&P, Style Research and AB

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23 | CMO 2Q 2016

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Left display as of January 31, 2016; right display as of March 31, 2016. Dispersion calculated between top- and bottom-decile managers. Asset classes represented by Morningstar categories. Large Cap Blend category includes active managers only. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. Source: Morningstar, S&P and AB

Alternatives: Downside Protection, but Mind the Dispersion

Higher-than-Normal Dispersion Today Annualized Return Dispersion

1.8

5.7

3.8

5.6

7.8

3.6

12.8

10.8

12.8

19.4

Intermediate-Term Bond

Large-Cap Blend

Nontraditional-Bond

Multi-alternative

Long/ShortEquity

Three Years July 2015–March 2016

Traditional Asset Classes Alternative Asset Classes

Lower Drawdowns than Broad Markets Returns (Percent)

–4.7

–2.3

–1.2 –1.4 –1.6

–8.4

–6.0

–2.5

–1.6

–5.0

2015 MaxDrawdown

Aug 2015Return

Sep 2015Return

Dec 2015Return

Jan 2016Return

Multialternative S&P 500

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24 | CMO 2Q 2016

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Left display shows 2015 annual total returns; right display as of March 31, 2016 An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB portfolio. The unmanaged index does not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a portfolio. Source: Barclays, Bloomberg and AB

Environment More Supportive of Alternative Strategies

Increase in Deal Volume Reflects Opportunities for Event-Driven Managers Merger & Acquisition Volume (Millions)

Large Range of Opportunities for Credit Managers Dispersion of Returns: 2015 (Percent)

–15

–10

–5

0

5

10

15

US HighYield

US IGCorporates

GlobalCredit

Number of Issuers 1,195 823 3,161

Top Quintile

Index Returns

Bottom Quintile

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

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Prescription Within Asset Classes

Equities: Be Active

Be concentrated

Seek downside protection

Fixed Income: Be Balanced

Rates: combine Global Core and US Core

Manage yield curves/positioning

Hedge currencies

Credit: use Global Multi-Sector

Take advantage of attractive valuations

Manage liquidity risk

Alternatives: Be Selective

Focus on relative-value strategies

Focus on strong up/down-capture approaches

Contrarian’s Corner: If the Economy… …Grows Faster than Expected

Equities: favor a more cyclical approach, such as value, as well as lower quality sectors like financials and energy

Fixed Income: tilt a bit more toward credit risk, but still avoid stretching for yield

…Grows Slower than Expected

Equities: emphasize income and quality attributes

Fixed Income: tilt more toward interest rates and remain global

Current analysis does not guarantee future results. As of March 31, 2016 Source: AB

Putting It All Together: Strategy for Modest Growth, Low Inflation

Return Seeking

Risk Reducing Risk Reducing

Return Seeking

Fixed Income Equities

Alternatives

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26 | CMO 2Q 2016

A Word About Risk

The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor’s personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates.

Important Risk Information Related to Investing in Equity and Short Strategies

All investments involve risk. Equity securities may rise and decline in value due to both real and perceived market and economic factors as well as general industry conditions.

A short strategy may not always be able to close out a short position on favorable terms. Short sales involve the risk of loss by subsequently buying a security at a higher price than the price at which it sold the security short. The amount of such loss is theoretically unlimited (since it is limited only by the increase in value of the security sold short). In contrast, the risk of loss from a long position is limited to the investment in the long position, since its value cannot fall below zero. Short selling is a form of leverage. To mitigate leverage risk, a strategy will always hold liquid assets (including its long positions) at least equal to its short position exposure, marked to market daily.

Important Risk Information Related to Investing in Emerging Markets and Foreign Currencies

Investing in emerging-market debt poses risks, including those generally associated with fixed-income investments. Fixed-income securities may lose value due to market fluctuations or changes in interest rates. Longer-maturity bonds are more vulnerable to rising interest rates. A bond issuer’s credit rating may be lowered due to deteriorating financial condition; this may result in losses and potentially default, or failure to meet payment obligations. The default probability is higher in bonds with lower, noninvestment-grade ratings (commonly known as “junk bonds”).

There are other potential risks when investing in emerging-market debt. Non-US securities may be more volatile because of the associated political, regulatory, market and economic uncertainties; these risks can be magnified in emerging-market securities. Emerging-market bonds may also be exposed to fluctuating currency values. If a bond’s currency weakens against the US dollar, this can negatively affect its value when translated back into US-dollar terms.

Bond Ratings Definition

A measure of the quality and safety of a bond or portfolio, based on the issuer’s financial condition, and not based on the financial condition of the fund itself. AAA is highest (best) and D is lowest (worst). Ratings are subject to change. Investment-grade securities are those rated BBB and above. If applicable, the Pre-Refunded category includes bonds which are secured by US government securities and therefore are deemed high-quality investment grade by the advisor.

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Index Definitions

Following are definitions of the indices referred to in this presentation. It is important to recognize that all indices are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a mutual fund portfolio. Investors cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AB mutual fund.

Barclays Global Aggregate—Corporate Bond Index: Tracks the performance of investment-grade corporate bonds publicly issued in the global market found in the Global Aggregate. (Represents global corporate on slide 2.)

Barclays Global High Yield Index: Provides a broad-based measure of the global high-yield fixed-income markets. It represents the union of the US High Yield, Pan-European High Yield, US Emerging Markets High Yield, CMBS High Yield and Pan-European Emerging Markets High Yield indices.

Barclays Global Treasury Bond Index: Tracks fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt of investment-grade countries. The index represents the Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index and currently contains issues from 37 countries denominated in 23 currencies. The three major components of this index are the US Treasury Index, the Pan-European Treasury Index and the Asian-Pacific Treasury Index, in addition to Canadian, Chilean, Mexican and South African government bonds.

Barclays Global Treasury: Euro Bond Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the Euro Area Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index. (Represents euro-area government bonds on slide 2.)

Barclays Global Treasury: Japan Bond Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the Japanese Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index. (Represents Japan government bonds on slide 2.)

Barclays Investment Grade CMBS Index: Designed to mirror commercial mortgage-backed securities of investment-grade quality (Baa3/BBB-/BBB- or above) using Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, respectively, with maturity of at least one year.

Barclays Municipal Bond Index: A rules-based, market value–weighted index engineered for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. (Represents municipals on slide 2.)

Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: A broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, US dollar–denominated, fixed-rate, taxable bond market, including US Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-backed securities (MBS [agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs]), asset-backed securities (ABS), and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).

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Index Definitions (continued)

Barclays US Corporate Bond Index: A broad-based benchmark that measures the investment-grade, US dollar–denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes US dollar–denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers that meet specified maturity, liquidity and quality requirements.

Barclays US Corporate High-Yield 2% Issuer Capped Bond Index: A component of the US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index, which covers the universe of fixed-rate, noninvestment-grade corporate debt of issuers in developed-market countries. It is not market-capitalization weighted—each issuer is capped at 2% of the index.

Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index: Represents the corporate component of the Barclays US High Yield Index. (Represents US high yield on slide 2.)

Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade Index: Represents the performance of US corporate bonds within the US investment-grade fixed-rate bond market.

Barclays US Treasury Index: Includes fixed-rate, local-currency sovereign debt that makes up the US Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index. (Represents US government bonds on slide 2.)

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index: Tracks the performance of US dollar–denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index: A global, equal-weighted index of over 2,000 single-manager funds that report to HFR Database. Constituent funds report monthly net-of-all-fees performance in US dollars and have a minimum of $50 million under management or a twelve (12)-month track record of active performance. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index does not include funds of hedge funds.

J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global): Tracks total returns for traded external debt instruments in the emerging markets, and is an expanded version of the J.P. Morgan EMBI+.

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29 | CMO 2Q 2016

Index Definitions (continued)

MSCI EAFE Index: A free float–adjusted, market capitalization–weighted index designed to measure developed-market equity performance, excluding the US and Canada. It consists of 22 developed-market country indices. (Represents EAFE on slide 2.)

MSCI Emerging Markets Index: A free float–adjusted, market capitalization–weighted index designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. It consists of 21 emerging-market country indices. (Represents emerging markets on slide 2.)

MSCI World Index: A market capitalization–weighted index that measures the performance of stock markets in 24 countries.

Russell 1000 Index: A stock market index that represents the highest-ranking 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents about 90% of the total market capitalization of that index.

Russell 2000 Index: Measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. (Represents US small-cap on slide 2.)

S&P 500 Index: Includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the US economy. (Represents US large-cap on slide 2.)

MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations, and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices, any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI.

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Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund/Portfolio carefully before investing. For copies of our prospectus or summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, visit us online at www.abglobal.com or contact your AB representative. Please read the prospectus and/or summary prospectus carefully before investing.AllianceBernstein Investments, Inc. (ABI) is the distributor of the AB family of mutual funds. ABI is a member of FINRA and is an affiliate of AllianceBernstein L.P., the manager of the funds.

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