3 2008 post-election presentation heading into the election, republicans faced a very difficult...

32008 Post-Election Presentation

Heading into the election, Republicans faced a very difficult political environment with all the key national barometers in

the dumps.

Presidential Job Approval

National

Generic Ballot

Data From National Exit Polls

Republican Party Image


48%52%

56%

46% 43% 44% 42% 44%38%36% 35% 33%

38% 39% 39% 36% 37%

47%

Sept. 222008

Oct. 052008

Oct. 202008

Sept. 222008

Oct. 052008

Oct. 202008

Sept. 222008

Oct. 052008

Oct. 202008

It was a difficult Fall for the McCain campaign. Obama’s image improved, McCain’s stayed flat, and Palin’s fell.

Barack Obama: Image John McCain: Image Sarah Palin: Image

Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg Pos Neg

Data from a NBC/WSJ national poll of 1,159 Registered Voters conducted October 17-20, 2008


46% 43% 43% 43% 44% 42% 44%52% 54%

50% 51%55%

51% 53%

Rasmussen Reuters FOX NBC/WSJ Gallup CBS ABC/WP

And all data pointed to an Obama win.

JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO JM BO

If the election for President and Vice President were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:

John McCain and Sarah Palin, Republicans ...and... Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats

All data is from the week leading up to the 2008 election


18% 18%24%

33%

2000 2002 2004 2008

Bu

sh

Ker

ry

Bu

sh

Ker

ry

Bu

sh

Go

re

Bu

sh

Go

re

Percent Voting Early 2000 2004

54%50%

43%49%

45%49%

56%50%

VotedEarly

ElectionDay

VotedEarly

ElectionDay

Bu

sh

Ke

rry

Bu

sh

Ke

rry

Mc

Ca

in

Ob

am

a

Mc

Ca

in

Ob

am

a

Early voting spiked and provided Obama with a comfortable margin.


28%

17% 17%

6% 9%

36%

51% 52%

67%59%

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Election day/Last few days before the election Before September

Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you say you made your FINAL decision on which candidate you

were going to vote for in the election for President?

Leaving few late deciders for a McCain comeback.


While younger voters and first time voters remained consistent with previous elections…

17%

9%

17%

11%

18%

11%

18-29yrs old

FirstTime

Voters2000 2004 2008


12% 13% 13% 10%15% 17% 19% 22%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

% Of African American & Hispanic Voters

AA/Hisp.

…the racial make-up of the electorate is changing.

AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp. AA/Hisp.

Data from CNN Exit Polls


32%

4%

31% 30%

66%

95%

67% 69%

18-29yrs old

African-Americans

Hispanics FirstTime

VotersMcCain Obama

* National Exit Poll Data

Obama’s advantages with these four groups were essential to his big victory.


9% 11%4%

90% 88%95%

African Americans(10%)



Bush

African Americans turned out in record numbers, making Obama their nearly unanimous choice.

Gore Bush Kerry McCain Obama

Presidential Vote Among African Americans

2000 2004 2008

-81% -77% -91%



12% 8%14%

5%13%

4%

87%92%

85%95%

86%96%

Afr. Am.(21%)2004

Afr. Am.(20%)2008

Afr. Am.(26%)2004

Afr. Am.(23%)2008

Afr. Am.(12%)2004

Afr. Am.(13%)2008

G.W.

Obama’s increased margins among AA’s helped flip Southeastern states.

Presidential Vote Among African Americans

J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O. G.W. J.K. J.M. B.O.

Virginia North Carolina Florida



35%44%

32%

62%53%

66%

Hispanics(7%)

Hispanics(6%)

Hispanics(8%)

Bush

Two-thirds of Hispanics supported Obama.


Presidential Vote Among Hispanics

2000 2004 2008

-27% -9% -34%



30%38%

44%

30%39%

22%

68%60% 56%

69%60%

76%

Hispanic(8%)2004

Hispanic(19%)2008

Hispanic(32%)2004

Hispanic(41%)2008

Hispanic(10%)2004

Hispanic(15%)2008

G.W.

His margins made a huge difference in the Southwest.

Presidential Vote Among Hispanics


Colorado New Mexico Nevada



46% 45%

32%

48%54%

66%

18-29 Years(17%)

18-29 Years(17%)

18-29 Years(18%)

Bush

As did two-thirds of young voters.


Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds

2000 2004 2008

-2% -9% -34%



46%39% 43%

26%

41% 37%

54%60% 56%

74%

58% 61%

18-29 Yrs(17%)2004

18-29 Yrs(21%)2008

18-29 Yrs(14%)2004

18-29 Yrs(18%)2008

18-29 Yrs(17%)2004

18-29 Yrs(15%)2008

G.W.

The Southeast – Obama significantly increased his margins among young voters.

Presidential Vote Among 18-29 Year Olds


Virginia North Carolina Florida



43% 46%

31%

52% 53%

68%

First-Time Voters(9%)



Bush

And, Obama overwhelmingly won with first-time voters.


Presidential Vote Among First-Time Voters

-9% -7% -37%

2000 2004 2008Data from CNN Exit Polls


41% 41%43% 43% 44%

40% 38% 38%37% 37%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

POS’ National Merge Data

NBC/WSJ National Data

Party Identification Figures

GOP erosion complicated the electoral math.

DEM

GOP

40%43% 43%

47%

38%36%

34% 35%

March2004

Late October2006

March2007

March2008

DEM

GOP

45%

35%November

2008


35% 35% 35% 35% 37%32%

37% 38% 40% 39% 37% 39%

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Party ID

GOP DEM

The Democratic advantage at the polls was unprecedented in recent years.

GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM

-2% -3% -5% -4% -0- -7%



State2004

Result2008

Result

2004Party ID

(GOP-Dem)

2008Party ID

(GOP-Dem)

CO Bush Obama 11 1

FL Bush Obama 4 -3

IN Bush Obama 14 5

IA Kerry Obama 2 -1

MI Kerry Obama -5 -12

MN Kerry Obama -3 -4

MO Bush McCain 1 -6

MT Bush McCain 7 0

NV Bush Obama 4 -8

NH Kerry Obama 7 -2

NM Bush Obama -7 -16

NC Bush Obama 1 -11

OH Bush Obama 5 -8

PA Kerry Obama -2 -7

VA Bush Obama 4 -6

WV Bush McCain -18 -14

WI Kerry Obama 3 -6

There were big swings in the battleground states.


2008 Pres. Results2004 Pres. Results

Red states turned blue.


Both sides consolidated their partisans.

93%

11%

90%

10%6%

89%

9%

89%

GOP Dem GOP DemBush/McCain Kerry/Obama


2004 Presidential Race 2008 Presidential Race


Obama won the middle by a very wide margin.

48%44% 45%

39%

49% 52% 54%60%

Ind Ind Mod ModBush/McCain Kerry/Obama


Among Independents Among Moderates


A new “progressive” era? Not exactly… this is still a center-right country.


Let’s remember what’s this race was really about.


Job Approval Avg. Loss60+ 050-59 -12Under 50 -41

President's Party Performance

Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Since 1962(Gallup/POS Polls & National Journal)

Looking to 2010…pay attention to Obama’s approval rating.

74%

49%

57%

47%

52%

43%

63%

58%

46%

66%63%

42%

1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994

1998 2002

2006

-4

-47

-12

-48

-15

-26

-8 -8

-52

5 5

-30

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3 2008 post-election presentation heading into the election, republicans faced a very difficult...

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