3-5 june 2004 bangkok, thailand - le hub...

INFOFISH TUNA CONFERENCEINFOFISH TUNA CONFERENCE

3-5 June 2004Bangkok, Thailand

Helga Josupeit, FAO•

““Global World Tuna MarketsGlobal World Tuna Markets””

This presentation will cover…This presentation will cover…

• World Tuna Catches• Fresh and Frozen Tuna Trade• Fresh and Frozen Tuna Prices• Canned Tuna Trade• Canned Tuna Prices

World Tuna Catches

Total catch of the 5 main tuna species expanded quite strongly between 1986-2002: from 2.5 million MT to over 4 million MT, The main tuna catching nations are concentrated in Asia, with Japan and Taiwan (Province of China) as the main producers. Other important tuna catching nations in Asia are Indonesia, the Republic of Korea and the Philippines. Japan continues to be the world’s major tuna catching country, but catches have contracted in recent years. In 2002, Japanese tuna production was 565 000 MT, which compares to a peak of 780 000 MT in 1986 and 1993.

Taiwan (Province of China) more than doubled its catch during the years under review from 190 000 MT to 460 000 MT in 1998, but also Taiwan (Province of China) experienced a decline in 2000. Nevertheless, in 2002, the tuna production from this island reached 500 000 MT, very close to the Japanese production. Noteworthy noting is the increase in tuna catch during the years under review of Indonesia (+330%). The loss of the tuna fishing grounds in the Central Eastern Pacific due to the tuna dolphin issue led to a substantial decline in US tuna production, down almost 50%.

Spain and France are important tuna fishing countries, mainly catching in the Indian Ocean.

Tuna catches by countryTuna catches by country

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Skipjack is by far the main species caught, and catches doubled during the past 15 years. In 2002, skipjack catches for the first time exceeded 2 million MT.

Yellowfin is the second major species, also growing, but at a slower path than skipjack. This species is generally higher priced than skipjack, also used in canning. In 2000, yellowfin catches was 1.35 million MT in 2002, quite an increase from the 1 million MT of the mid 90s.

Albacore catches were stable over the years, while bigeye catches went up. For bigeye there is concern about over-fishing, especially in fisheries using TADs, as we have heard already yesterday.

Tuna catches by speciesTuna catches by species(1000 MT)(1000 MT)

1987 1991 1995 1998 2002 Skipjack 1017 1693 1653 1888 2030 Yellowfin 847 955 1014 1094 1347 Bigeye 263 277 374 385 430 Albacore 219 168 190 230 238 Bluefin 58 45 72 68 64 Total 2404 3138 3303 3665 4104

Summary and Outlook (catches)Summary and Outlook (catches)

• Catch continue to grow• Skipjack by far the main tuna species

caught, but also yellowfin is growing• Bluefin and bigeye resources under stress,

but while bluefin is well managed, bigeye is a major concern

World Tuna Trade

Products entering international Products entering international tradetrade

• Sashimi tuna• Raw material for canning

– Whole frozen– Tuna loins

• Canned tuna• Specialty products (smoked, katsuobushi,

tuna steaks, etc.)

The main internationally traded tuna forms are raw material for canning (fresh, frozen and frozen pre-cooked loins) tuna for direct consumption (fresh/chilled and frozen) and canned (solid pack, chunks, flakes, grated).Japan is the main world market of tuna for direct consumption (sashimi). The Japanese mainly process sashimi from tuna, marlins and yellowtail (Seriola quinqueradiata), the most expensive one being sashimifrom Atlantic, Pacific and Southern bluefin tuna. In Japan sashimi is consumed year round, but the peak consumption periods are the Golden Week in May, the Bon Festival in August and the New Year festivities. Sashimi is served in small slices, dipped in soy souce or wasabi (Japanese horse radish) and consumed raw. Sashimi originates from fresh raw tuna meat, or from tuna frozen at -40° immediately after harvest. The sashimi market requires the use of larger species, such as bluefins (ensuring the premium sashimi) bigeye and yellowfin. Generally, larger fish are preferred to smaller fish. In terms of capture methods, tuna for the premium sashimi market is generally caught by longlines, which ensure the best handling of the fish during capture. In terms of processing methods, connoisseurs of the premium sashimi market favour fresh and chilled tuna. Tuna for the sashimi market is also graded on aesthetic characteristics, such as bright/clear appearance of the skin, clear and moist eyes, elastic skin and undamaged abdominal walls, and on the high fat contents of the fish. While processing tuna for sashimi is rather simple, processing tuna for canning is clearly more elaborated. After capture, there are different steps to process tuna for canning. When the fish are unloaded from the vessel they are thawed in running water or sprays of water. The fish are then quickly gilled, gutted, headed and chilled or frozen. After cutting, the tunas are loaded into trays and taken to the pre-cooker. After pre-cooking and cooling, the cleaners remove the skin from the fish and separate the loins from the skeleton. The last step, canning, is a totally automated process. Canned tuna products are packed in oil, brine, spring water or sauce. Once the cans are sealed, they are cooked a second time (“retort cooking”), for two to four hours. After the retort cooking, the cans are cooled, labelled, and finally packed into cardboard cases for distribution. It is a relatively common practice in the tuna industry to undertake all the processing stages up to tuna loining as close as possible to the landing areas in developing countries and to export the semi-processed product (tuna loins) to canneries in developed countries. Other tuna commodities include dried and smoked tuna, tuna steaks, tuna burgers, tuna jerky, tuna sausage and tuna roe. Animal feed and pet food are produced from processing waste of tuna canneries.The HACCP principle (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point) is generally applied to the tuna industry. HACCP implies food safety controls within the process rather than applied to the final product.

This part will cover…This part will cover…• Fresh and Frozen Tuna Trade• Fresh and Frozen Tuna Prices• New developments in raw material• Canned Tuna Trade• Canned Tuna Prices• New developments in preserved

products

Total tuna trade (export values) reached US$ 5 000 million in 2002, up from US$ 1 900 million in 1987. During the same period total export values of fish and fish products increased from US$ 27 900 million to US$ 58 200 million.

Tuna is thus the third major fish commodity traded internationally- after shrimp and groundfish, with about 9% of total trade in value terms. The tuna fishery is practically the only fish processed and traded at an industrial scale, while for all other commodities small companies prevail.

Tuna exports versus total exportsTuna exports versus total exports(1000 million US$)(1000 million US$)

1987 1991 1995 2002

Total 27.9 38.7 51.7 58.2

Tuna 1.9 2.9 4.2 5.0

Exports in 2002 (Value)Exports in 2002 (Value)

Shrimp18%

Groundfish15%

Salmon8%

Others25%

Tuna9%

Cephalopods5%

Molluscs (other)

6%

Freshwater2%

Small pelagics

7%

Fishmeal4%

Fish oil1%

Shrimp is the most important commodity with about 18% of international trade in value terms. It is interesting to note that this share stayed stable over the past 20 years, but started to decline recently, due to lower prices for shrimp worldwide. Groundfish is another important group with 15% of trade. Tuna is third with 9%. The relative importance of salmon as an export item has increased over the past years from 5% in the early 1990s, to reach 7% in 1999 and 8% in 2002 as a result of the booming salmon farming industry in Norway and Chile.

The above graph compares the growth in tuna catch (in quantity terms) with the growth of tuna exports (expressed in value terms). It can be noted that trade expanded more than catch, reflecting increase in value of both fresh and frozen tuna in recent years. It has to noted, however, that the trade figures have not been adjusted for inflation. In 1999, the oversupply of tuna led to a very strange movement of the graph, while catches reached a record of 3.8 million MT, the total value of tuna trade was lower than in 1998 or 2000. Something similar happened in 2002, again indicating oversupply.

Tuna exports versus catchTuna exports versus catch

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Tuna exportsTuna catch

Total fresh and frozen tuna exports jumped in 1997, but have stabilized in value terms at about US$ 2 800 million. Unfortunately these figures do not include loin exports due to problems we have with the coding system of tuna loins, which are put under 1604 in export codes rather than under 03. Also in quantity terms, whole fresh and frozen tuna exports was stable over the years at 1.3-1.4 million MT. Tuna is thus an important trade item, with about 40% of the catch entering international trade.

The main imported tuna commodities are frozen skipjack and frozen yellowfin in terms of quantity, while frozen bigeye and yellowfin are the main imported commodities in terms of value. The main importers of fresh, chilled and frozen tuna commodities are Thailand (first in terms of quantity and second in terms of value) which mainly imports frozen skipjack for its canneries, and Japan (first in terms of value and second in terms of quantity), mainly importing frozen bigeye for its sashimi market. In turn, the main world exporters of fresh, chilled andfrozen tuna are Taiwan Province of China, Spain, France and the Republic of Korea.

Production of canned tuna (including frozen pre-cooked loins) increased from 499 000 MT in 1976 to 1.4 million MT in 2001 (net weight). The main producing countries are Thailand, the United States and Spain. According to FAO data, imports of canned tuna increased in terms of quantity from 89 000 MT in 1976 to 836 000 MT in 2001 (net weight).

Fresh/Frozen Tuna exportsFresh/Frozen Tuna exports

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It is interesting to note the increase of fresh tuna trade worldwide, even though the expansion has been lower than anticipated some years cack. In 2002, some 150 000 MT were traded, 15 000 MT more than in 1990. Total value of fresh tuna exports grew much stronger to reach US$ 733 million in 2002. The most impressive growth was experienced by Spain, which is now the top exporter of fresh tuna. This is coming mainly from the booming tuna farming activity in Spain. The quantity of fresh tuna exported by Spain is relatively small (11 300 MT in 2002) which is mainly fresh bluefin for a high unit value of US$ 17.90/kg. By comparison, the unit value of other fresh exports is US$ 3.50/kg. A curiosity is the entry of Croatia among the top five, all based on bluefin outgrowing.

Main importing country is Japan with about 90 000 MT of fresh tuna imported per year. In value terms Japan holds 75% of the world fresh tuna market. Fresh tuna is mainly flown in by air, with Indonesia as main trading partner. The presence of ranched bluefin tuna coming from Spain and Australia is expanding.

Fresh tuna exportsFresh tuna exports(million US$)(million US$)

1990 1993 1997 2002 Spain 34 32 79 137 Indonesia 42 122 70 91 Taiwan PC 67 113 74 46 Australia 2 3 47 70 Croatia 0 0 0 37 Total* 313 467 565 733

* including others

World Imports of fresh World Imports of fresh or frozen tunaor frozen tuna

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Import value

World imports of fresh, chilled and frozen tuna increased from 434 896 MT in 1976 to 1.6 million MT in 1998. They dropped to 1.4 million MT in 2000 and increased again to about 1.7 million MT in 2002. In terms of value, world imports of fresh, chilled and frozen tuna increased from US$406 million in 1976 to US$3.4 billion in 1995, declining to US$3 billion in 2000 and 2001, but showing a slight improvement in the latter year to reach US$ 3.2 billion in 2002.

The above graph shows that while in 1976 the unit value was about US$ 1000/MT, in the late eighties, the unit value increased sharply to stabilize at about US$ 2000/MT at present. This might be a surprise as during the last years prices of tuna – both for the sashimi and the canned tuna market have declined.

Japan and Thailand are the world’s major fresh and frozen tuna importers.

The crisis of the Thai tuna canning industry led to a decline in fresh and frozen tuna imports into the country in 1996 and 1997. In 1991, Thai imports of raw material for its tuna canning plants reached a peak of almost 500 000 MT, a level to which exports only recently were able to make it back, helped by low raw material prices

On the other hand, the second major importer of fresh and frozen tuna, Japan, reported a decline of imports in 1999, as a result of the economic crisis. Japanese imports of tuna increased in 2000 and continued the upward trend in the following years. Taiwan (Province of China) is by far the main supplying country of frozen tuna to Japan. Fresh tuna imports into Japan have expanded in recent years. Fresh tuna are flown into the country, with Spain and Indonesia as the main supplier of this type of product.

The USA is the third major importer of fresh and frozen tuna to supplement tuna supplies to its canneries, but as the number of canneries in the USA is declining, also imports of raw material experience a continuous downward spiral. Also Italian whole frozen tuna imports are declining, as the country shifted to pre-cooked loins. Spain is still mainly using frozen tuna as raw material for its canneries, and crew very strongly in recent years.

Fresh/frozen tuna importsFresh/frozen tuna imports

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The above slide shows yellowfin prices paid by Italian canneries. The same price levels hold true also for other European countries canning yellowfin.

It can be noticed that yellowfin coming from the Indian Ocean or from the Atlantic is commanding a higher price than yellowfin tuna from the Pacific. However, the price differential is narrowing in recent years.

The general price tendency in recent years is for a strong decline. Prices that had reached a high of over US$ 2000/MT in mid 1998, prices went down to US$ 1000/MT in mid-2000. and have stayed on this low level ever since. The graph shows very nicely the downward trend during the 18 years.

Italy: Frozen Yellowfin PricesItaly: Frozen Yellowfin Prices

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The above slide illustrates skipjack prices in the three main consuming areas, that is the USA, Thailand and Africa. The African price is generally lower than the others, while Thailand pays the most for skipjack. During 1999-2000prices declined sharply to reach US$ 350/MT in Bangkok. Prices recovered in early 2001, to US$ 750/MTat present. But the outlook is not very optimistic.

Frozen Skipjack PricesFrozen Skipjack Prices

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The above slide shows loin prices paid by Italian canneries. Even though the usage of skipjack in Italian canned tuna production has been traditionally low it is expanding somewhat. It is interesting to see how the prices have recovered in recent months after the low of US$ 2.00/kg experienced for skipjack loins in February 2004, but it is also interesting to see that skipjack loin prices have come closer to yellowfin prices in recent months. Price developments might mirror in coming months the one of early 2001, when prices increase sharply by almost 50% in just 6 months.

Italy: Frozen Tuna Loin PricesItaly: Frozen Tuna Loin Prices

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• Fresh and frozen tuna trade recovered, reflecting huge increase in catches

• Fresh and frozen tuna prices still very low• Presence of tuna loins expanding in tuna

trade• Fresh/frozen tuna trade forecast to stabilize

Summary and Outlook Summary and Outlook (fresh/frozen tuna)(fresh/frozen tuna)

Canned tuna trade

The tuna canning industry, after the crisis in 1996-1997, recovered in 1998 when a record 1.4 million MT of canned tuna were produced. In 2000, the production of canned tuna was 1.35 million MT. Good demand in Europe gave a boost to production, which reached 1.55 million MT.

Production in Thailand, which had been responsible for the increase in total canned tuna production in the 1980s, declined during the crisis years. But production is expanding again and was 290 000 MT in 2002.

USA used to be the main producer of canned tuna. Its production is quite stable at 275-300 000 MT per year during the 1990s. The closing down of canning capacity in the USA led to a sharp decline in 2001, when only 230 000 MT were produced. Spain experienced a boom in canned tuna production and consumption in recent years. In fact, in 2002, Spain managed to overtake the US as second major producer of canned tuna worldwide. The concentration of the industry in fewer hands led to an improvement in efficiency, and less companies are producing more. Canned tuna production increased by more than four times from 60 000 MT in 1986 to 252 000 MT in 2000. The graph shows very nicely the strong growth in recent years. Italy is a distant fourth, with stable production around 70 000 MT per year. Italy is now using more and more imported tuna loins in order to cut the labour costs in its factories.

Canned tuna productionCanned tuna production(in 1000 MT)(in 1000 MT)

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The above graph shows impressively the crisis of the canned tuna export industry in recent years and the recovery in 2002. Canned tuna exports reached some US$ 2 100 million in 2002. In 1999 and 2000 export earnings of the canning industry dropped significantly to only US$ 1 700 million, back to 1995 levels.

Thailand continues to be the main exporting country of canned tuna, but the peak of 1991 could not be reached again. Nevertheless, the 1998 canned tuna export value for this country reached a strong US$ 600 million, very close to the 1991 record. On the wave of the general decline in canned tuna prices Thai export earnings from canned tuna sales dropped sharply in 1999 and 2000 to recover somewhat in 2001 and 2002. A strong new comer among the canned tuna exporters is Ecuador, with exports targetting the US market, mainly for pouch packs.

Canned Tuna ExportsCanned Tuna Exports

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Total canned tuna imports reached 1 million MT in 2002, quite an impressive growth during the past years, but especially with regard to 2001, some 150 000 MT more entered international trade. Import value reflected the sharp decline in prices in 2000, but are now back to US$ 2.5 billion.

Canned tuna importsCanned tuna imports

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The unit value of canned tuna has experienced some up-and-downs through the past years, hitting the ground at 2.2 US$/kg in 1985 (first tuna crisis) and more recently in 2000. Unit value is slowly recovering. I think it interesting to note that in both cases, only few years before the crisis the unit value and thus the price of canned tuna had reached a peak.

Canned tuna imports (Unit value)Canned tuna imports (Unit value)

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The USA continues to be the main canned tuna importing country with a record 164 000 MT in 2002. The country had experienced a decline in 2000 and 2001, but the closing down of canneries in US territories and the changes in ownership in the main trade marks, make imports more attracitve. Thailand continues to be the main supplying country to the US market, but other countries such as the Philippines are increasing their share on the US market.

European countries are among the top canned tuna importers, witha strong increases in imports experienced by all main importing countries. UK is now the main importer of canned tuna in the EU with 110 000 MT in 2000. More than half of the canned tuna imported into the UK originates from Asia and more than 15% from Pacific Islands. These figures reflect the colonial links of UK with some of the supplying countries. France imports very little canned tuna from Asia or the Pacific, almost all its imports come from Africa. In the past, Western Africa was dominant on the French canned tuna market, but in recent years, canneries in Indian Ocean Islands have become important suppliers to the French market. Italy has only recently emerged as a main importer of canned tuna. The country used to produce its own tuna for its consumption, without much imports. In the late eighties and early nineties, Italian canned tuna imports were in range of 10-20 000 MT. Since many canneries and trade names were sold, and the country is importing a lot of canned tuna, especially from the new owners in Spain.

Canned tuna importsCanned tuna imports

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Canned tuna price have decreased sharply in 2000, 2001 and again in early 2003, reflecting lower raw material prices. Canned tuna is generally more expensive in Europe than in the USA, but some of the price differential is given by the smaller size of the US can (6 oz) when compared with the European standard can (6.5 oz).

Overall, one can say that canned tuna is a well liked product. The consumer is generally not counting canned tuna among the fish dishes, but it is considered as “something else”, probably more as meat. Consumption and demand are expected to grow, but the limited resource, which in many places shows signs of decline, will lead to higher prices in the coming years. These price increases might scare away the consumer in the near future, as the consumer is used to canned tuna as a relatively cheap product. On the other hand, the use of fresh and frozen tuna will expand in many Western countries, where sushi bars are expanding. Higher prices paid for sashimi tuna will lower the supply to the canning sector.

Canned Tuna PricesCanned Tuna Prices

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• Canned tuna trade growing in quantity terms

• …but canned tuna trade collapsed in value terms in 2000 and 2001

• Thailand still major canned tuna exporting country, but the Philippines are growing

Summary and Outlook (canned tuna)Summary and Outlook (canned tuna)

Canned tuna trade growing in quantity terms, especially 2002 has been a strong year. Prices of canned tuna have declined in 2001, and have neve r recovered again. As a result canned tuna trade collapsed in value terms in 2000 and 2001. Thailand is still major canned tuna exporting country, but the Philippines is growing in importance. Favoured by duty concessions, Latin American countries are increasing their production. Ecuador is now the number three canned tuna exporter.

• USA by far main canned tuna importing country

• Demand in canned tuna consuming countries growing, especially in Europe

• Prices, importers are willing to pay, are relatively low, with some timid signs of improvements

• Decline in quality in many markets• New markets still far from being opened

(China)


USA by far main canned tuna importing country, with a new record reached in 2003.

Demand in canned tuna consuming countries growing, especially in Europe. Figures for growth in imports are amazing for many European countries, such as Italy and Germany, where canned tuna imports tripled in recent years. The reasons are manifold, but the high Euro is favouring canned tuna imports as a very cheap food item in this region.

Prices, importers are willing to pay, are relatively low, with some timid signs of improvements in recent months.

Decline in quality in many markets. The use of hydro protein in the USA and the use of tuna loins in some canneries have led to a decline in qua lity. But the industry seems to be committed to improve the quality and the image of canned tuna.

New markets still far from being opened – India or China have practically no canned tuna consumption, also because of high tariffs.

• Less production of canned tuna in developed countries

• More production in developing countries• Recent investment by European canneries in

various Central American and South American countries


Less production of canned tuna in developed countries due to high labour costs. Canneries in the USA have closed down, production in Italy is declining, also in France there is less production. This is balanced by more production in developing countries.

Recent investment by European canneries in various Central American and South American countries have resulted in a boost in production there.

Recent developmentsRecent developments

• the tuna-dolphin issue, still unresolved since the beginning of the nineties;

• the crisis of the tuna industry in the United States;

• the internationalization of the European tuna industry, and its integration with the African and Latin American industries;

Recent developments (cont.)Recent developments (cont.)

• the strengthening of the position of Thailand as the top world tuna producer (despite the mid-decade crisis);

• the development of bluefin tuna farming, to ensure full availability of sashimi to the Japanese market.


• the progressive substitution of whole frozen raw material with loins operated by canneries in developed countries; Spain is an important exception

• the introduction of new canned products, such as the wide range of tuna salads, tuna in sauce and tuna paste;


• the generalised increase in the world demand for tuna for non-canning purposes;

• the growing concerns over tuna resources, especially the valuable bluefins and bigeye for the sashimi market.

SummarySummary• Consumption expanding, but not in all

countries• Concentration of production and trade in

fewer hands• New products have a good market, tuna

pouch product growing on the US market, but European market seems reluctant

• New value added product should be developed

Consumption expanding, but not in all countries

Concentration of production and trade in fewer hands

New products have a good market, tuna pouch product growing on the US market, but European market seems reluctant

New value added product should be developed

CFC/INFOFISH project activitiesCFC/INFOFISH project activitiesPapua New Guinea and MaldivesPapua New Guinea and Maldives

• Market Studies• Techno-economic assessment• Production trials• Trade Fair Participation• Buyer-seller matching & Trial marketing• Production manuals• Economic Feasibility assessment• Investment Profiles

CFC/INFOFISH project activitiesPapua New Guinea and Maldives

Market Studies

Techno-economic assessment

Production trials

Trade Fair Participation

Buyer-seller matching & Trial marketing

Production manuals

Economic Feasibility assessment

Investment Profiles

CFC/INFOFISH project activities (cont.)CFC/INFOFISH project activities (cont.)Papua New Guinea and MaldivesPapua New Guinea and Maldives

• Investment Promotion• Dissemination (National workshop /

Industry Seminars)• Training in Quality Assurance• Training in laboratory techniques• Regional Workshop

CFC/INFOFISH project activities (cont.)Papua New Guinea and Maldives

Investment Promotion

Dissemination (National workshop / Industry Seminars)

Training in Quality Assurance

Training in laboratory techniques

Regional Workshop

CFC/INFOFISH project progressCFC/INFOFISH project progressPapua New Guinea and MaldivesPapua New Guinea and Maldives

• 2001 February – CFC approval• 2003 April – Market studies commenced• 2003 July/ August – technical assessment• of beneficiary companies• 2003 October – Indonesia workshop• 2003 November – US Market visit• 2004 March – Production trials PNG• 2004 May – Presentation of products in Brussels • 2004 June – Presentation of products at

INFOFISH Tuna Conference

CFC/INFOFISH project progressPapua New Guinea and Maldives

2001 February – CFC approval

2003 April – Market studies commenced

2003 July/ August – technical assessment

of beneficiary companies

2003 October – Indonesia workshop

2003 November – US Market visit

2004 March – Production trials PNG

2004 May – Presentation of products in Brussels

2004 June – Presentation of products at INFOFISH Tuna Conference

3-5 june 2004 bangkok, thailand - le hub...

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