3 february daily technical trader
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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Tuesday, 03 February 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
BRES* 45.80 48.00
QGTS 23.90 24.23 * Medium-term
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,117.70 0.5 7.2
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,250 12,350 12,600
Support 12,000 11,850 11,750
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The upside swing the QSE undertook could continue to the next resistance level of 12,250. The MACD is still below the zero line but pointing north and the RSI is trying to push above the neutral zone. That said; it is important to notice that the SMAs created a Death Cross as the 100SMA crossed below the 200SMA (circled in red). This is a bearish sign for the long term. Expected Resistance Level: 12,250 Expected Support Level: 11,850
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 02 Feb 15 01 Feb 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 468.0 374.5 25.0
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 655.9 648.8 1.1
Volume (mn) 8.4 8.5 -1.2
Number of Trans. 5,793 4,815 20.3
Companies Traded 41 42 -2.4
Market Breadth 20:19 15:22 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,188.27 1.1 54.6
All Share Index 3,123.38 0.7 54.5
Banks 3,199.95 1.6 54.9
Industrials 3,898.75 0.5 52.5
Transportation 2,379.40 1.1 63.6
Real Estate 2,285.61 0.0 51.7
Insurance 3,878.69 -0.2 60.4
Telecoms 1,362.81 -1.2 41.5
Consumer 7,168.96 0.1 58.0
Al Rayan Islamic 4,150.82 0.8 57.0
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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BRES (Medium-term)
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 45.80 1.78 865,839
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 46.00 48.00 50.00
Support 42.00 38.50 35.00
Commentary
Overview: The name is trading at price range between QR42.00 and QR46.00. A sustained break above QR46.00 could propel the stock to QR48.00 and possibly beyond. A break above QR46.00 is essential because the price at that point could penetrate the top border of the triangle created by the price. Technical Indicators favor that idea. Over the medium-term, charts show the MACD above the zero line and pointing north. The RSI is also departing from the neutral zone. Moreover, The same patterns are exhibited on the weekly and the daily charts. Expected Target Price: QR48.00 – QR50.00 A sustained break over the QR46.00 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR44.0 A breach below the level means the drop could continue to the lower part of the triangle.
(Weekly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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QGTS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 23.90 1.27 181,792
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 24.23 24.80 25.00
Support 23.40 23.15 22.00
Commentary
Overview: The name just broke above an ascending triangle and closed above its moving average which is a positive sign in the short-term. In addition, the MACD is pointing up and above the zero line in both time frames. The RSI is also pointing up on both time frames and has not reached the overbought area yet. Thus, we conclude that this move could continue further on the back of the expected continuation of the bullish momentum. Expected Target Price: QR24.23 – QR24.80 A break above QR23.90 is needed for the momentum to continue upwards. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR23.40
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,117.70 11,949.61 11,997.77 12,027.52 12,075.68 12,123.84 12,153.59 12,201.75 12,240.64 12,986.97 12,990.45
Total Return 18,188.27 17,935.96 18,008.25 18,052.91 18,125.19 18,197.48 18,242.14 18,314.42 18,259.10 19,371.09 19,374.85
All Share 3,123.38 3,096.59 3,104.27 3,109.01 3,116.68 3,124.36 3,129.10 3,136.77 3,131.22 3,301.53 3,299.35
Al Rayan Islamic 4,150.82 4,082.65 4,102.18 4,114.25 4,133.78 4,153.31 4,165.38 4,184.91 4,115.87 4,372.19 4,365.37
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 47.80 45.40 46.09 46.51 47.20 47.89 48.31 49.00 45.11 49.21 51.04
CBQK 68.50 67.37 67.71 67.92 68.27 68.61 68.82 69.17 68.22 70.51 69.15
DHBK 58.00 57.40 57.63 57.77 58.00 58.23 58.37 58.60 56.72 58.09 59.49
QIBK 108.00 104.53 105.53 106.14 107.13 108.13 108.74 109.73 102.20 107.81 103.55
QIIK 81.50 78.37 79.28 79.85 80.77 81.68 82.25 83.17 80.36 84.18 84.52
Insurance
QATI 87.90 87.23 87.62 87.85 88.23 88.62 88.85 89.23 86.29 92.30 87.96
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 126.90 123.70 125.19 126.11 127.60 129.09 130.01 131.50 120.33 124.27 110.62
Industrials
IQCD 153.50 143.03 146.09 147.98 151.03 154.09 155.98 159.03 167.25 179.46 180.51
QEWS 195.50 192.97 193.69 194.14 194.87 195.59 196.04 196.77 188.03 188.34 187.00
GISS 104.10 100.90 101.86 102.45 103.40 104.36 104.95 105.90 96.99 109.67 105.80
QIGD 38.80 37.60 38.00 38.25 38.65 39.05 39.30 39.70 40.29 46.99 53.80
Real Estate
BRES 45.80 44.33 44.79 45.07 45.53 45.99 46.27 46.73 43.79 43.59 41.78
UDCD 24.25 24.08 24.18 24.24 24.33 24.43 24.49 24.58 24.18 26.05 26.23
ERES 14.61 14.47 14.53 14.57 14.63 14.69 14.73 14.79 15.40 17.45 21.01
MRDS 20.45 20.18 20.28 20.34 20.44 20.54 20.60 20.70 19.63 21.72 20.92
Telecommunication
ORDS 113.20 111.47 112.31 112.83 113.67 114.51 115.03 115.87 116.69 122.31 130.06
VFQS 15.30 14.98 15.09 15.15 15.26 15.37 15.43 15.54 15.92 18.29 18.72
Transportation
QGTS 23.90 23.23 23.42 23.54 23.73 23.92 24.04 24.23 23.02 23.67 23.65
QNNS 102.00 99.07 99.98 100.55 101.47 102.38 102.95 103.87 96.99 97.37 96.00 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 [email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
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