Source: CEIC; World Health Organization, World Bank.

A. Last observation is February 19, 2020.

Confirmed Coronavirus cases

Overview

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Chart of the Month

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Special Focus: Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes •

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Table of Contents

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200

SARS (2003)

Coronavirus (2019)

Number of confirmed cases, thousands

Outbreak duration (number of days)

Global Monthly February 2020

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September 2019 February 2020Monthly Highlights

FIGURE 1.B Trade indicators

FIGURE 1.C Stock market volatility and the U.S. yield curve

Source: Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; U.S. Department of Treasury; World Bank. A. Market exchange rate weights based on real GDP at 2010 prices and marketexchange rates. Purchasing power parity rates based on nominal GDP at 2011international prices.B. Figure shows merchandise export values. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Lastobservation is January 2020.C. Stock market volatility is represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which usesS&P 500 Index options to calculated implied volatility. The yield curve is the spread between the 10 year and 3 month Treasury yields. Last observation is February 19,

FIGURE 1.A China’s share of global output

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Korean exports

World new export orders (RHS)

Index, 50+=expansionPercent, year-on-year

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Feb-2

0Stock market volatility

Yield curve (RHS)

Index Basis points

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25

2003 2019

Market exchange rates

Purchasing power parity

Percent

3

September 2019 February 2020

FIGURE 2.B East Asia equity markets

FIGURE 2.A Nominal broad effective exchange rate for the U.S. dollar and the Euro

FIGURE 2.C Commodity prices

Source: Bloomberg; Haver Analytics; World Bank. A.-C. Last observation is February 19, 2020.

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U.S. dollar Euro (RHS)

Index, 100=2010 Index, 100=2010

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Shanghai CSI300

Hong Kong Hang Seng

MSCI EM equity index

Index (January 20, 2020 = 100)

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Brent Copper (RHS)

US$/bbl US$/mt

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September 2019 February 2020

FIGURE 3.B Euro Area: GDP growth and industrial production

FIGURE 3.A United States: Contribution of consumption and investment to GDP growth

FIGURE 3.C Japan: Monthly activity indicators

Source: Bank of Japan; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Haver Analytics; World Bank. A. Figure shows quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth. Lastobservation is 2019Q4.B. Last observation is 2019Q4 for GDP and December 2019 for industrial production.C. Last observation is December 2019.

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EuroArea

Germany France Italy Spain

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Industrial production (RHS)

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Percent,

year-on-year

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Retail sales(RHS)

Index, 100=June 2019 Index, 100=June 2019

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September 2019 February 2020

FIGURE 4.B Changes in monetary policy rates and inflation for select EMDEs over the last six months

FIGURE 4.A China: Passenger transport volume around the Lunar New Year

FIGURE 4.C GDP growth in EMDEs

Source: China National Sources; Haver Analytics; World Bank. A. Figure shows three day moving average. Last observation is February 15, 2020.B. Figure shows change between February 2020 and July 2019.C. Aggregates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange rates. Figure annualized 4-quarter on 4-quarter average.

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2019 2020Million passengers

Days since Lunar New Year

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Brazil Russia South Africa

Percentage points

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Commodityexporters

Commodityimporters excl.

China

Percent, annualized

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September 2019 February 2020

FIGURE 5.B Goods most frequently subject to price controls in LICs

FIGURE 5.A Economies with price controls

FIGURE 5.C Share of food in total consumption expendi-ture

Source: World Bank; World Trade Organization. Note: EMDEs = emerging markets and developing economies; LICs = low-income countries. Unweighted averages. Listed price control policies are retrieved from the latest (2003-19) country Trade Policy Review publication. A. Sample includes 21 low-income countries, 23 low-income countries turned middle-income countries and 56 other EMDEs. B. Sample includes 21 low-income countries.C. Sample includes 23 low-income countries and 67 other EMDEs.

Special Focus: Price Controls: Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes

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LICs Other EMDEs LICs turned MICsPercent of economies

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September 2019 February 2020

FIGURE 6.B Share of countries with price controls on export goods

FIGURE 6.A Share of total imports subject to price

FIGURE 6.C Ease of getting electricity

Source: World Bank; World Trade Organization. A. 2017 data. Listed price control policies are retrieved from the latest (2003-19) country Trade Policy Review publication. Sample includes 12 low-income countries and63 other EMDEs.B. 2017 data. Listed price control policies are retrieved from the latest (2003-19) country Trade Policy Review publication. Countries that rely heavily on a single exportdefined as a country in which exports of one or more 4-digit HS category represents 10 percent or more of its total exports in 2017. Chart shows the share of all LICs and other EMDEs that relying heavily on a single export whose price is subject to price controls.Sample includes 12 low-income countries and 61 other EMDEs.C. Chart shows the World Bank’s index for ease of getting electricity in year before (t-1) and the two years after (t+1, t+2) energy subsidy reform (World Bank 2019b). Time t=0 refers to 2014 for Egypt and Morocco and 2012 for Tunisia.

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LICs Other EMDEs

Percent of economies

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Egypt (RHS) Morocco Tunisia

Index Points (+ = Improvement, both axes)

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September 2019 February 2020

Recent Prospects Group Publications Global Economic Prospects - January 2020

Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences

A Decade since the Global Recession: Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies

Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2019: The Role of Substitution in Commodity Demand

Global Economic Prospects - June 2019: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment

Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2019: Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications

Recent World Bank Working Papers Global Corporate Debt during Crises: Implications of Switching Borrowing across Markets

Macro-Financial Aspects of Climate Change

An Empirical Investigation of Trade Diversion and Global Value Chains

Structural Reforms To Set The Growth Ambition: New Growth Agenda

Financial Risk Management in Agriculture: Analyzing Data from a New Module of the Global Findex Database

New Approaches to the Identification of Low-Frequency Drivers: An Application to Technology

Recent World Bank Reports The Hidden Wealth of Cities: Creating, Financing, and Managing Public Spaces

Convergence: Five Critical Steps toward Integrating Lagging and Leading Areas in the Middle East and North Africa

Exploring Universal Basic Income: A Guide to Navigating Concepts, Evidence, and Practices

Global Financial Development Report 2019/2020: Bank Regulation and Supervision Ten Years after the Global Financial Crisis

World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development

Trade Integration as a Pathway to Development?

TABLE: Major Data Releases (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: January 19, 2019 - February 18, 2020 Upcoming releases: February 19, 2019 - March 18, 2020

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

South Korea 1/21/20 GDP Q4 2.2% 2.0% Canada 2/19/20 CPI JAN 2.2%

South Africa 1/22/20 CPI DEC 4.0% 3.6% South Africa 2/19/20 CPI JAN 4.0%

Australia 1/28/20 CPI Q4 1.8% 1.7% United Kingdom 2/19/20 CPI JAN 1.4%

Germany 1/30/20 CPI JAN 1.7% 1.5% France 2/20/20 CPI JAN 1.5%

United States 1/30/20 GDP Q4 2.3% 2.1% Japan 2/20/20 CPI JAN 0.8%

France 1/31/20 GDP Q4 0.8% 1.4% Euro Area 2/21/20 CPI DEC 1.3%

Italy 1/31/20 GDP Q4 0.0% 0.5% Italy 2/21/20 CPI JAN 0.6%

Mexico 2/11/20 IP DEC -1.0% -2.3% Germany 2/25/20 GDP Q4 0.5%

United Kingdom 2/11/20 GDP Q4 1.1% 1.2% Mexico 2/25/20 GDP Q4 -0.3%

Euro Area 2/12/20 IP DEC -3.5% -1.7% United States 2/27/20 GDP Q4 2.3%

India 2/12/20 IP DEC -0.3% 1.8% Brazil 2/28/20 GDP Q4 1.2%

United States 2/13/20 CPI JAN 2.5% 2.3% France 2/28/20 GDP Q4 0.8%

Euro Area 2/14/20 GDP Q4 0.9% 1.2% Germany 2/28/20 CPI FEB 1.7%

Germany 2/14/20 GDP Q4 0.5% 0.6% India 2/28/20 GDP Q4 4.5%

Japan 2/16/20 GDP Q4 -0.4% 1.8% Euro Area 3/10/20 GDP Q4 1.2%

Turkey 2/3/20 CPI JAN 12.2% 11.8% China 3/15/20 IP JAN 6.9%

Brazil 2/4/20 IP DEC -1.3% -1.8% Turkey 3/2/20 GDP Q4 0.9%

Indonesia 2/5/20 GDP Q4 5.0% 5.0% Australia 3/3/20 GDP Q4 1.7%

Brazil 2/7/20 CPI JAN 4.2% 4.3% South Africa 3/3/20 GDP Q4 0.1%

Mexico 2/7/20 CPI JAN 3.2% 2.8% South Korea 3/3/20 CPI FEB 1.5%

China 2/9/20 CPI JAN 5.4% 4.5% Turkey 3/3/20 CPI FEB 12.2%