30 july 2020 · 2 days ago · source tradingview. the figures stated are as of the 30 july 2020...

13
30 July 2020

Upload: others

Post on 31-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

30 July 2020

Page 2: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

230 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not

contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

S&P500

• No clear resolution yet as to whether the pause following through after the break above the June 3231.25 high is the market

consolidating before a renewed upside push or the beginning of a deeper pullback.

• Should the S&P500 close below uptrend support from the March 2174 low at 3225 AND the short-term support coming from recent

lows 3190/80 area, it would be an initial warning that a pullback towards 2930 is underway. A break/close below medium-term support

3150/30 would indicate the move lower is gaining traction.

• Conversely, should the S&P500 continue to respect the uptrend support at 3225 as well as short term support 3190/80 allow for a retest

and break of the all-time highs at 3397.50, before extending towards 3500/3600 into year end.

• Short Term Summary: Leaning against support at 3190/80 a mild positive bias remains in place.

Page 3: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

330 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not

contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDUSD

• The recent break above the June .7064 high was a positive medium-term development and sets the AUDUSD up for a move towards

.7500c.

• As expected, buyers were evident on dips last week near the June 10, .7064 high and this remains important near-term support

before stronger support in the .7000c area.

• Keeping in mind, a sustained loss of the support near .7000c would be the first indication the break high has failed and that a deeper

pullback towards .6800c is underway.

• Short Term Summary: While above .7000c a positive bias is in place. Waiting for a corrective pullback to unfold to enter longs.

Page 4: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

430 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not

contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURUSD

• The EURUSDs surge higher has continued this week and is within touching distance of the next upside target the 2018, 1.1852 high.

This level is a good candidate for the EURUSD to begin a corrective pullback from.

• Ideally, we would love to see a pullback to 1.1500ish (the march high) to buy, in anticipation of the rally resuming into the low/mid

1.20’s. However given the strength of the rally, there is a good chance pullbacks will be shallower than usual.

• In that sense 1.1620/1.1570 might be as good as we get for a corrective pullback to buy.

• Short Term Summary: A bullish medium-term outlook is in place and our bias is to buy corrective pullbacks.

Page 5: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

530 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

NZDUSD

• Last weeks break above the .6585/00 resistance area was a positive medium-term development and sets the NZDUSD up for a move

towards .6850c.

• As expected, dips were well supported near the .6600c support area and this remains important near-term support before stronger

support in the .6500c area.

• Keeping in mind a sustained loss of support at .6500c would be an initial indication the break high has failed and that a deeper

pullback towards .6380c is underway.

• Short Term Summary: While above .6500c a positive bias is in place. Now watching for a corrective pullback to unfold to enter longs

Page 6: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

630 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDNZD

• In recent reports we have noted the possibility that the recent 1.0566 low completed a corrective pullback.

• The rally that has occurred this week including a break above the recent 1.0755 double high, suggests we are on the right track here

and that the next leg higher towards the June 1.0881 high is underway.

• On the downside, a break of near-term support 1.0670/50 would negate the positive bias and warn that a retest and possible break

of range lows 1.0580/60 is underway.

• TRADING IDEA: Long AUDNZD at 1.0715ish. The stop loss is placed at 1.0645. The initial target remains the June 1.0881 high and

beyond that 1.1000/50.

Page 7: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

730 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURNZD

• The decline from the 1.9927 to the recent 1.7163 low, appears to have been a corrective pullback of sorts.

• The bullish divergence at the 1.7163 low and the recent break out of the downtrend channel resistance supports the idea that a

recovery has commenced.

• More so following the break of the mid June 1.7653 that opens a move towards 1.8000. Keeping in mind a break/close below

1.7480/60 is required to negate the positive outlook.

• TRADE IDEA: Long EURNZD at 1.7515. The stop loss can now be raised to 1.7449. We suggest taking profit on this trade just ahead

of medium-term resistance ~1.8000.

Page 8: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

830 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURCHF

• Our analysis earlier this week that the rally to the 1.0838 high confirmed the next leg higher (Wave III) had commenced came

under immediate pressure, following Tuesdays update.

• That said we were still awaiting the final confirmation - a daily close above 1.0820 and out of the downtrend channel on the weekly

chart to confirm the bullish bias.

• The subsequent upside rejection confirms EURCHF remains within the downtrend channel and triggered the long EURCHF trade

idea below.

• I am not 100% comfortable with the events of this week in EURCHF and would advise squaring up the trade at breakeven if the

opportunity presents itself over the next 48 hours. For those who would prefer to stay with the trade the following levels stand.

• TRADE IDEA: Long EURCHF at an avg of 1.0760 with a stop loss placed below 1.0710. The initial target is a retest of the 1.0916 high.

Page 9: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

930 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

USDJPY

• Post the volatility in March/April, USDJPY settled within a range between 110.00 and 106.00.

• This break below range lows 106.00 this week confirms a head and shoulders topping pattern that sets USDJPY up for a move lower

towards medium-term support 104.50ish and possibly as low as 102.00.

• To negate the downside risks, it would take a break back above previous range lows and resistance 106.20.

• Until this occurs the downside bias remains.

• Short Term Summary: Looking to sell corrective bounces back towards the 106.00/20 resistance area.

Page 10: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

1030 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 30 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

Bitcoin

• The rally from the June 8830 low certainly kicked into a higher gear this week, breaking above significant resistance levels at 10,500 and

at 11,000.

• In an Elliott Wave sense the impulsive nature of the move suggests a Wave III higher has commenced that targets a move to the June

19, 13880 high and then towards the all time 19666 high.

• A break and close back below 10,000 is required to negate the bullish bias.

• TRADE IDEA: Long 11,200 area with a stop loss placed at 9750. The target is 14k before 20k.

Page 11: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

1130 July, 2020

DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMER

TECH-FX TRADING PTY LTD (ACN 617 797 645) is an Authorised Representative (1255203) of Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (number 345646).

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments. Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com.au, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

TECHFX TRADERS owns copyright of the information and material contained in this presentation/report/webinar. Information may be printed or downloaded for personal use. The information may not otherwise be reproduced and must not be distributed or transmitted to any other person or used in any way without the express approval of TECHFX TRADERS.

Page 12: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does

1230 July, 2020

DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMER

TECH-FX TRADING PTY LTD (ACN 617 797 645) is an Authorised Representative (1255203) of Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (number 345646).

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments. Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com.au, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

TECHFX TRADERS owns copyright of the information and material contained in this presentation/report/webinar. Information may be printed or downloaded for personal use. The information may not otherwise be reproduced and must not be distributed or transmitted to any other person or used in any way without the express approval of TECHFX TRADERS.

Page 13: 30 July 2020 · 2 days ago · Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 30 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does