30-oct-2015 msci daily tr £ fund rel. net world...12 upper grosvenor street, london, w1k 2nd ~ tel...

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12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority In October-15 the Fund returned +2.8% against the MSCI Daily TR Net World return of +5.9%. Positive performance primarily came from our holdings in the Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%), Financials (+0.6%) and Information Technology (+0.5%) sectors. Individual best performers this month were Sky (+0.7%) and Alcatel-Lucent (+0.4%); the worst were Sports Direct International (-0.2%) and Royal KPN (-0.1%). Note: Allocation and attribution figures are taken at close of business and fund performance is taken at 12pm. Source for above table and chart: Capita Financial Managers & Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and is shown net of fees. Calculation on a NAV basis as at 30-Oct-15.The data below refers to the £ R share class. Stan Druckenmiller stunned investors in New York recently by announcing that he thought we were already in a bear market for equities. I suspect people will look back on this time and see it as the last opportunity to get out. Remember, as Warren Buffett has commented, there is a world of difference between volatility and loss. Volatility can be the cost of getting into position, a loss in pursuit of a greater profit. Loss is when the hope of recovery has gone. A properly mistaken investment. Since 2009, and in practice long before then, we have been living in a world where capacity has not been taken out in any industry. Zero interest rates have allowed lenders to be at their most sentimental – forever hoping that their losses will not be realised. Given the boom before 2009, when we look back on the years since the start of zero interest rates, we may be surprised only by how slow the Developed World was to misallocate capital resources, rather than by how much they did. After all, having no cost of capital is like living in a room with no light. Furniture gets pushed about. However, China has both massively misallocated capital, misallocating lending to cover up that misallocation, and has promoted wage growth to cover up for the lack of demand for excess housing. At some point it will have to let its currency fall. Presently every day, thanks to wage inflation of 10%, its competitive position viz-a-viz all its neighbours gets worse. The reaction to the slowdown is to put yet more money into capital spending; government spending is now rising at 18% yoy and not 8%, as it was 3 months ago. But throwing good money after bad does not solve this problem. What it does show, is enough strength in the global economy for Yellen and the Fed to raise interest rates, and with it the dollar and the RMB rise yet further against their neighbours’ currencies. Do not buy until capacity is taken out of the system. Selling is precarious but the real losses are the ones you never come back from. £ Class 3713.31 £ A Acc Class 132.24 £ I Acc Class 170.74 £ I Inc Class 167.17 Fund Size (£m) 395.49 Inception Date Index MSCI Daily TR Net World 30-Oct -2015 06-Aug-01 Since Inception 0 100 200 300 400 500 Aug-01 Aug-04 Aug-07 Aug-10 Aug-13 % CF Odey Opus(£)R MSCI Daily TR Net World £ Fund MSCI Daily TR Net World Rel. 1-month 2.8 5.9 -3.1 3-month -3.6 -1.9 -1.7 1-year 6.0 5.5 0.5 3-year 40.9 45.1 -4.2 5-year 45.3 61.0 -15.7 YTD -1.6 2.4 -4.0 1yr to 30-Oct-2015 6.0 5.5 0.5 1yr to 31-Oct-2014 -0.9 9.1 -10.0 1yr to 31-Oct-2013 34.1 26.1 8.0 1yr to 31-Oct-2012 5.6 9.1 -3.5 1yr to 31-Oct-2011 -2.3 1.7 -4.0 Since Inception 271.3 93.1 178.3 CAGR since inception 9.7 4.7 4.9 30-Oct -2015 1-year 3-year 5-year Inc. Fund annual s.dev. 11.1 12.0 14.7 16.2 Index annual s.dev. 10.3 9.8 10.3 15.7 Alpha 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.5 Beta 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 Correlation 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Sharpe Ratio 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 Fund Info Ratio 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.5 Fund Tracking error 6.0 6.3 7.6 11.2 Treynor 2.6 10.8 5.7 8.7 30-Oct -2015 30-Oct -2015 % Nav Equity 60.3 Cash 39.7

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Page 1: 30-Oct-2015 MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World...12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ Authorised and Regulated by the Financial

12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com

Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

■ In October-15 the Fund returned +2.8% against the MSCI Daily

TR Net World return of +5.9%.

■ Positive performance primarily came from our holdings in the

Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%), Financials (+0.6%) and

Information Technology (+0.5%) sectors.

■ Individual best performers this month were Sky (+0.7%) and

Alcatel-Lucent (+0.4%); the worst were Sports Direct

International (-0.2%) and Royal KPN (-0.1%).

Note: Allocation and attribution figures are taken at close of business and fund performance is taken at 12pm.

Source for above table and chart: Capita Financial Managers

& Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of

future results and is shown net of fees. Calculation on a NAV basis as at 30-Oct-15.The data below refers to the £ R share

class.

Stan Druckenmiller stunned investors in New York recently by announcing that

he thought we were already in a bear market for equities. I suspect people will

look back on this time and see it as the last opportunity to get out. Remember, as

Warren Buffett has commented, there is a world of difference between volatility

and loss. Volatility can be the cost of getting into position, a loss in pursuit of a

greater profit. Loss is when the hope of recovery has gone. A properly mistaken

investment.

Since 2009, and in practice long before then, we have been living in a world

where capacity has not been taken out in any industry. Zero interest rates have

allowed lenders to be at their most sentimental – forever hoping that their losses

will not be realised. Given the boom before 2009, when we look back on the

years since the start of zero interest rates, we may be surprised only by how slow

the Developed World was to misallocate capital resources, rather than by how

much they did. After all, having no cost of capital is like living in a room with no

light. Furniture gets pushed about.

However, China has both massively misallocated capital, misallocating lending to

cover up that misallocation, and has promoted wage growth to cover up for the

lack of demand for excess housing. At some point it will have to let its currency

fall. Presently every day, thanks to wage inflation of 10%, its competitive

position viz-a-viz all its neighbours gets worse. The reaction to the slowdown is

to put yet more money into capital spending; government spending is now rising

at 18% yoy and not 8%, as it was 3 months ago. But throwing good money after

bad does not solve this problem. What it does show, is enough strength in the

global economy for Yellen and the Fed to raise interest rates, and with it the

dollar and the RMB rise yet further against their neighbours’ currencies.

Do not buy until capacity is taken out of the system. Selling is precarious but the

real losses are the ones you never come back from.

£ Class 3713.31

£ A Acc Class 132.24

£ I Acc Class 170.74

£ I Inc Class 167.17

Fund Size (£m) 395.49

Inception Date

Index MSCI Daily TR Net World

30-Oct -2015

06-Aug-01

Since Incept ion

0

100

200

300

400

500

Aug-01 Aug-04 Aug-07 Aug-10 Aug-13

%

CF Odey Opus(£)R

MSCI Daily TR Net World

£ FundMSCI Daily TR

Net WorldRel.

1-month 2.8 5.9 -3.1

3-month -3.6 -1.9 -1.7

1-year 6.0 5.5 0.5

3-year 40.9 45.1 -4.2

5-year 45.3 61.0 -15.7

YTD -1.6 2.4 -4.0

1yr to 30-Oct-2015 6.0 5.5 0.5

1yr to 31-Oct-2014 -0.9 9.1 -10.0

1yr to 31-Oct-2013 34.1 26.1 8.0

1yr to 31-Oct-2012 5.6 9.1 -3.5

1yr to 31-Oct-2011 -2.3 1.7 -4.0

Since Inception 271.3 93.1 178.3

CAGR since inception 9.7 4.7 4.9

30-Oct -2015

1-year 3-year 5-year Inc.

Fund annual s.dev. 11.1 12.0 14.7 16.2

Index annual s.dev. 10.3 9.8 10.3 15.7

Alpha 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.5

Beta 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8

Correlation 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8

Sharpe Ratio 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5

Fund Info Ratio 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.5

Fund Tracking error 6.0 6.3 7.6 11.2

Treynor 2.6 10.8 5.7 8.7

30-Oct -2015

30-Oct -2015

% Nav

Equity 60.3

Cash 39.7

Page 2: 30-Oct-2015 MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World...12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ Authorised and Regulated by the Financial

12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com

Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

The investment objective of the CF Odey Opus Fund is to achieve long term capital growth primarily through

investment in quoted equity and fixed interest stocks

throughout the world.

Comparative benchmark MSCI Daily TR Net World Index

Fund inception date 6 August, 2001

Fund type UK Long only UCITS IV

Base currency £

Share classes £R, £I (Acc. & Inc.), £A

Hedging Non-base currencies are unhedged

Dealing / Valuation Daily forward to 12pm / 12pm

Front end fee Up to 5%

Annual management fee R 1.39%, I 0.89%, A 1.64%

Anti-dilution fee May apply 0.75% to NAV on subs/reds

Min. investment ‘I’ £1,000,000, ‘R’ & ‘A’ £5,000

Dividends Income and Accumulation share classes available

Authorised Corporate Director (ACD) Capita Financial Managers Ltd

Depositary BNY Mellon Trust & Depositary (UK) Ltd.

Auditor Ernst and Young LLP

Price reporting Prices published daily in Financial Times

ISIN ‘R’ GB00B1JMNF99 ’I’ Acc GB00B54RK123,

‘I’ Inc GB00B717BM70, ‘A’ GB00B87YPX87

SEDOL ‘R’ B1JMNF9, ‘I’ Acc B54RK12 , ‘I’ Inc B717BM7,

‘A’ B87YPX8

This communication is for information purposes only and not intended to be viewed as a piece of independent investment research.

© 2015 Odey Asset Management LLP (“OAM”) has approved this communication which is for private circulation only, and in the UK is directed to persons who are professional clients or eligible

counterparties for the purposes of the FCA’s Conduct of Business Sourcebook and it is not intended for and must not be distributed to retail clients. It does not constitute an offer to sell or an

invitation to buy or invest in any of the securities or funds mentioned herein and it does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment taxation or any other advice. The information and

any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results and the value of all

investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the fund may be subject to exchange

rate fluctuations. This communication and the information contained therein may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United

Kingdom (the “Act”) and the rules of the FCA. This communication is not subject to any restrictions on dealing ahead. The distribution of this communication may, in some countries, be restricted by

law or regulation. Accordingly, anyone who comes into possession of this communication should inform themselves of and observe these restrictions. OAM is not liable for a breach of such

restrictions or for any losses relating to the accuracy, completeness or use of information in this communication, including any consequential loss. Please always refer to the fund’s prospectus. OAM

whose company No. is OC302585 and whose registered office is at 12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Crispin Odey Portfolio Manager

Enquiries

Andrew King

Tel: +44 20 7208-1454

Email: [email protected]

Sarah St. George

Tel: +44 20 7208-1432

30-Oct-15 30-Oct-15

30-Oct-15 30-Oct-2015

All sources unless otherwise stated are Odey internal unaudited data and refer to the £ R share class. All data shown is as at 30-Oct-2015, however, the attribution

by sector chart is for the month ending 30-Oct-2015.

Currency exposure relates to exposure of all assets held by the fund, including

any forward currency positions.

0.92.1

11.7

37.3

48.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

NO

K

SEK

EUR

USD

GBP

%

Rank Security Notional Exposure (%)

1 Sky 9.9

2 Alcatel-Lucent 4.8

3 Man Group 3.6

4 Sports Direct 2.8

5 Pendragon 2.7

6 D.R. Horton 2.7

7 Orange 2.2

8 Koninklijke KPN 2.2

9 Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson 2.1

10 Nokia 2.0

0

10

20

30

Con

sumer

Discretio

nary

Con

sumer Staple

s

Energy

Finan

cials

Health

Care

Industrials

Inform

ation

Tech

nolo

gy

Mate

rials

Teleco

mm

unicatio

nServices

Utilities

%

Fund Index

-0.1

0.3

0.7

1.1

1.5

Consu

mer

Disc

retio

nary

Consu

mer S

taple

s

Energ

y

Fin

ancials

Health

Care

Industr

ials

Info

rmatio

nTech

nolo

gy

Mate

rials

Tele

com

munic

ation

Serv

ices

Utilitie

s

%

Fund Index