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ENGR 3360U Winter 2014

Unit 10-3

Qualitative Assessment of Risk 

Dr. J. Michael Bennett, P. Eng., PMP,

UOIT,

Version 2014-I-01

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%&an$e Re"or'

2014-(-01 (nitial %reation

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10+3 Qualitative Risk Anal/sis

10+3+1 (nuts

  +1 EE

  +2 A

  +3 ro!e"t "oe tatement

+4 Risk #ana$ement lan

10+3+2 ools an' e"&niues

  +1 Risk ro5a5ilit/ (ma"t Assessment

  +2 ro5a5ilit/ (ma"t #atri7

  +3 Risk *ata Qualit/  +4 Risk %ate$ori8ation

  +9 Risk Ur$en"/ Assessment

10+3+3 utut

+1 Risk Re$ister U'ates

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urose of Qualitative RA

:o"uses on rankin$ in non-numeri" terms

Want to fo"us on &i$&-riorit/ risks ese"iall/

Risk &as 3 'imensions

ro5a5ilit/ of o""urren"e

(ma"t of eventuate' risk 

imin$ of t&e risk 

(s rai'. "&ea. foun'ational

(n'i"ates t&e nee' for e7ansion in uant se"tion

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+1 Risk ro5a5ilit/ (ma"t Assessment

everit/ ;

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3+1 Risk Estimation

Also "alle' Risk Attri5ute Evaluation

r/ to rate>

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Risk %onseuen"es

 Nature of risk W&at are t&e ro5lems asso"iate' Cit& t&is risk&aenin$

"oe of risk &oC serious is it AN* &oC mu"& of t&e ro!e"tCill 5e &arme' Dor &oC man/ "ustomers

imin$ of risk C&en an' &oC lon$ Cill t&e effe"ts 5e felt

Assi$n a ratin$

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Evaluatin$ Risks

Air :or"e e7amle

inar/ level

ernar/ levelro5a5ilit/

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inar/

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ernar/

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Air :or"e %ate$ori8ation

(ma"t "atastro&i"

"riti"al

mar$inal ne$li$i5le

ro5a5ilit/ freuent

 ro5a5le imro5a5le

imossi5le

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+2 ro5a5ilit/ (ma"t #atri7

%an also use a stoli$&t "&art as folloCs

ermits us to rank risks or ut t&em in a

"ommon risk 5asket

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(ma"t "ales for 4 ro!e"t 5!e"tives# $ 249

ProjectObjective

Very Low(0.05)

Low(0.10)

Moderate(0.20)

High(0.40)

Very High(0.80)

o!t(nsi$nifi"ant

"ostin"rease

H10I "ostin"rease

10-20I "ostin"rease

20-40I "ostin"rease

J40I "ostin"rease

"i#e(nsi$nifi"ant

timein"rease

H09I timein"rease

09-10I timein"rease

10-20Itime

in"rease

J20I timein"rease

$co%e(nsi$nifi"ant

s"oe

'e"rease

#inor areasof s"oe

affe"te'

#a!or areasof s"oe

affe"te'

K Con?ta""et

s"oere'u"tion

ro'u"t

useless

&'aity(nsi$nifi"ant

ualit/'e"rease

nl/ ver/'eman'in$ali"ations affe"te'

K mustaroveualit/

re'u"tion

K Con?ta""etualit/

re'u"tion

ro'u"tuseless

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Prob

0+F 0+09 0+0F 0+1B 0+36 0+@2 0+@2 0+36 0+1B 0+0F 0+09

0+@ 0+04 0+0@ 0+14 0+2B 0+96 0+96 0+2B 0+14 0+0@ 0+04

0+9 0+03 0+09 0+10 0+20 0+40 0+40 0+20 0+10 0+09 0+03

0+3 0+02 0+03 0+06 0+12 0+24 0+24 0+12 0+06 0+03 0+02

0+1 0+01 0+01 0+02 0+04 0+0B 0+0B 0+04 0+02 0+01 0+01

0+09 0+10 0+20 0+40 0+B0 0+B0 0+40 0+20 0+10 0+09

"H*+"$ OPPO",-"*$

ro5a5ilit/- (ma"t #atri7 # a$e 292

#%act

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(nternational Nu"lear Event "ale

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+3 Risk *ata Qualit/

An non-numeri" assessment of t&e ualit/

of t&e 'ata

ries to ualitativel/ estimate*e$ree of un'erstan'in$ of t&e risk 

A""ura"/ of t&e risk 'ata

Qualit/ of t&e risk 'ataRelia5ilit/ of t&e risk 'ata

(nte$rit/ of t&e risk 'ata

10

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+4 Risk %ate$ori8ation

Grouin$ makes it mu"& more "ost-effe"tive

U 10 R #

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+9 Risk Ur$en"/ Assessment

 Nee' to assess t&e risk timin$

A risk t&at &as eventuate' is no lon$er a

riskO it?s a :A%

U 10 R #

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10+3+3 Qual Risk Anal/sis ututs

Risk Re$istr/> U'ates

riorit/ rankin$ of risks

Risks $roue' 5/ "ate$or/Risks reuirin$ near-term resonse

Risks reuirin$ more anal/sisPresonse

Wat"& lists of loC riorit/ risks

ren's in ualitative risk anal/sis results