3702 the carbon plan delivering our low carbon future

8/2/2019 3702 the Carbon Plan Delivering Our Low Carbon Future

1/220

The Carbon Plan:Delivering ourlow carbon future

December 2011


2/220

The Carbon Plan:Delivering ourlow carbon future

Presented to Parliament pursuant toSections 12 and 14 of the Climate Change Act 2008

Amended 2nd December 2011 from the version laid before Parliament on 1st December 2011.

December 2011


3/220

Crown copyright 2011

You may re-use this inormation (not including logos) ree o

charge in any ormat or medium, under the terms o the

Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit

http://www. nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/

or write to the Inormation Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew,

London TW9 4DU, or e-mail: [email protected].

Any enquiries regarding this document should be sent to us at

Department o Energy & Climate Change, 3 Whitehall Place,

London SW1A 2AW.

This publication is available or download at

www.ofcial-publications.gov.uk and it is also available rom

our website at www.decc.gov.uk.
http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/mailto:[email protected]://www.official-publications.gov.uk/http://www.decc.gov.uk/http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/http://www.decc.gov.uk/http://www.official-publications.gov.uk/mailto:[email protected]


4/220

ContentsForeword 1

Executive summary 3

Part 1: The Governments approach to energy and climate change 13

Introduction 13

Our principles 14The vision or 2050 15

2050 utures 16

Planning or the uture 18

Part 2: Our strategy to achieve carbon budgets 21

Achieving carbon budgets 21

Buildings 29

Transport 47

Industry 59

Secure, low carbon electricity 69

Agriculture, orestry and land management 85

Waste and resource eciency

Working with the EU and Devolved Administrations 100

Part 3: Delivering the ourth carbon budget 107

Scenarios to deliver the ourth carbon budget 107

Delivering non-traded sector emissions reductions 107

Delivering traded sector emissions reductions 110

Considerations or achieving the ourth carbon budget 111

Managing our perormance 118

Annexes

A 2050 analytical annex 121

B Carbon budgets analytical annex 137

C Carbon Plan action summary 208


5/220


6/220

1

ForewordEven in these tough times, moving to a low carbon economy is the right thing to do, or our

economy, our society and the planet. This plan sets out how Coalition Government policies put us

on track to meet our long term commitments. The Green Deal will help cut energy bills, the Green

Investment Bank will attract new investment, and our reorms to the electricity market will generate

jobs in new low carbon industries. Climate change requires global action; every country needs to play

its part. This Carbon Plan shows that the UK is prepared to govern in the long term interests o the

country and build a coalition or change.

David Cameron

Prime Minister

Nick Clegg

Deputy Prime Minister

In June 2011, the Coalition Government enshrined in

law a new commitment to halve greenhouse gas

emissions, on 1990 levels, by the mid-2020s. This

Carbon Plan sets out how we will meet this goal in a

way that protects consumer bills and helps to attract

new investment in low carbon inrastructure,

industries and jobs.

By 2020, we will complete the easy wins that have

helped emissions to all by a quarter since 1990. Byinsulating all remaining cavity walls and lots, while

continuing to roll out more ecient condensing

boilers, we will cut the amount consumers spend

on heating by around 2 billion a year. Having

allen by a quarter in the last decade, average

new car emissions will all by a urther third in

the next, as internal combustion engines continue

to become more ecient. Emissions rom power

stations, already down a quarter since 1990, will all

a urther 40%, with most existing coal-red power

stations closing.

Over the next decade, we must also prepare or

the uture. The 2020s will require a change o gear.

Technologies that are being demonstrated or

deployed on a small scale now will need to move

towards mass deployment. By 2030, up to around a

hal o the heat used in our buildings may come

rom low carbon technologies such as air- or

ground-source heat pumps. Electric or hydrogen

uel cell cars will help to reduce vehicle emissions to

less than hal todays levels. New low carbon power

stations a mix o carbon capture and storage,

renewables and nuclear power will be built. In the

2020s, we will run a technology race, with the

least-cost technologies winning the largest market

share. Beore then, our aim is to help a range o

technologies bring down their costs so they are

ready to compete when the starting gun is red.

The transition to a low carbon economy will require

investment. But by insulating our homes better, and

driving more uel ecient cars, we will use less

energy, ofsetting the unding needed or low

carbon energy. By investing in more diverseenergy sources, we will be less vulnerable to ossil

uel price spikes. And by investing in industries that

suit our geography and skills, such as ofshore wind

and carbon capture and storage, we will gain a

long-term comparative advantage in industries with

a big uture.

This plan shows that moving to a low carbon

economy is practical, achievable and desirable. It will

require investment in new ways o generating

energy, not a sacrice in living standards. But turningit into reality will require business, government and

the public pulling in the same direction. We ace big

choices on inrastructure and investment. I hope

over the next year this plan can help us to orge a

new national consensus on our energy uture.

Chris Huhne

Secretary of State for Energy and

Climate Change


7/220


8/220

3

Executive summary

1. This plan sets out how the UK will achieve

decarbonisation within the ramework o our

energy policy: to make the transition to a low

carbon economy while maintaining energy security,

and minimising costs to consumers, particularly

those in poorer households.

2. Emissions are down by a quarter since 1990.1

Current policies put the UK on track to cut

emissions by over a third, on 1990 levels, by 2020.

In the next ten years, we will develop and deploy

the technologies that will be needed to halve

emissions in the 2020s. This will put the UK on a

path towards an 80% reduction by 2050.

3. By moving to a more ecient, low carbon and

sustainable economy, the UK will become less

reliant on imported ossil uels and less exposed

to higher and more volatile energy prices in

the uture.

Box 1: The Climate Change Act 2008 and the carbon budget rameworkThe Climate Change Act established a legally binding target to reduce the UKs greenhouse gas

emissions by at least 80% below base year levels by 2050, to be achieved through action at home and

abroad.2 To drive progress and set the UK on a pathway towards this target, the Act introduced a

system o carbon budgets which provide legally binding limits on the amount o emissions that may be

produced in successive ve-year periods, beginning in 2008. The rst three carbon budgets were set in

law in May 2009 and require emissions to be reduced by at least 34% below base year levels in 2020.

The ourth carbon budget, covering the period 202327, was set in law in June 2011 and requires

emissions to be reduced by 50% below 1990 levels.3

This report sets out the proposals and policies or meeting the rst our carbon budgets.

First carbon budget(200812)

Second carbonbudget (201317)

Third carbonbudget (201822)

Fourth carbonbudget (202327)

Carbon budgetlevel (million tonnescarbon dioxideequivalent (MtCO

2e))

3,018 2,782 2,544 1,950

Percentagereduction belowbase year levels

23% 29% 35% 50%

1 This gure includes the eect o emissions trading. UK territorial emissions have allen by 28% over the same period.

2 The base year is 1990 or carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane, and 1995 or hydrofuorocarbons, perfuorocarbons and sulphur hexafuoride.

3 To be reviewed in 2014 in light o EU Emissions Trading System cap.


9/220

4 Executive summary

Progress so far4. Our past record shows that progress is

possible. Between 1990 and 2010 emissions rompower stations ell by almost a quarter, as the

dash or gas in the 1990s saw large numbers

o coal-red power stations replaced. In the last

decade wind and other renewables have grown

to the point that they now provide nearly a tenth

o UK generating capacity. With nuclear power

generating 16% o total UK electricity, a quarter o

electricity generation is now low carbon.

5. In buildings, emissions have allen by 18%,

despite the growth in population and housing.Regulation has required the introduction o new,

more ecient condensing boilers, saving at least

800 million this year on energy bills. Eleven million

homes, 60% o all homes with cavity walls, have

been tted with cavity wall insulation. This will

reduce the amount the UK spends on heating in

2011 by 1.3 billion.

6. In transport, emissions are roughly the same

as they were in 1990. Emissions rose beore

2007 as the economy grew and transportdemand increased, but have since allen due to

improvements in new car eciency, an increased

uptake o biouels and, to a lesser extent, the

recent economic downturn.

7. Since 1990 industrial output has grown at an

average o 1% a year while emissions have allen by

46%. Industry has become more energy ecient

and the UKs industrial base has shited towards

higher value, more knowledge-intensive sectors.

8. Agricultural emissions have allen by almost

a third, due in part to more ecient arming

practices, while the diversion o waste rom

landll, as a result o the landll tax, has cut waste

emissions by more than two thirds.

9. Government policies are already helping

consumers. Our analysis predicts that average

energy bills or domestic consumers will be 7.1%

lower in 2020 than they would have been without

policy interventions in place.

Vision10. However, i we are to cut emissions by 80% by

2050, there will have to be major changes in howwe use and generate energy. Energy eciency will

have to increase dramatically across all sectors.

The oil and gas used to drive cars, heat buildings

and power industry will, in large part, need to be

replaced by electricity, sustainable bioenergy, or

hydrogen. Electricity will need to be decarbonised

through renewable and nuclear power, and the

use o carbon capture and storage (CCS). The

electricity grid will be larger and smarter at

balancing demand and supply.

11. But there are some major uncertainties.

How ar can we reduce demand? Will sustainable

biomass be scarce or abundant? To what extent

will electrication occur across transport and

heating? Will wind, CCS or nuclear be the cheapest

method o generating large-scale low carbon

electricity? How ar can aviation, shipping, industry

and agriculture be decarbonised?

12. The sectoral plans in this document seek to

steer a course through this uncertainty.

13. In the next decade, the UK will complete

the installation o proven and cost efective

technologies that are worth installing under all

uture scenarios. All cavity walls and lots in homes,

where practicable, are expected to be insulated

by 2020. The uel eciency o internal combustion

engine cars will improve dramatically, with CO2

emissions rom new cars set to all by around

a third. Many o our existing coal-red power

stations will close, replaced primarily by gas andrenewables. More ecient buildings and cars will

cut uel costs. More diverse sources o electricity

will improve energy security and reduce exposure

to ossil uel imports and price spikes.

14. The UK is not alone in taking action on energy

eciency. Japan has set a goal o improving its

energy consumption eciency rom 2003 levels

by at least 30% in 2030. The Swedish Government

has proposed an energy eciency target to reduce

energy by 20% between 2008 and 2020.4

4 International Energy Agency (2009) Implementing Energy Efciency Policies.


10/220

Executive summary 5

15. Over the next decade the UK will also prepare

or the uture by demonstrating and deploying the

key technologies needed to decarbonise power,

buildings and road transport in the 2020s andbeyond. Rather than picking a single winner, this

plan sets out how the UK will develop a portolio

o technologies or each sector. This has two

virtues. It will reduce the risk o depending on a

single technology. And it will generate competition

that will drive innovation and cost reduction.

16. In electricity, the three parts to our portolio

are renewable power, nuclear power, and coal- and

gas-red power stations tted with carbon capture

and storage. In transport, ultra-low emissionvehicles including ully electric, plug-in hybrid,

and uel cell powered cars are being developed.

In buildings, the technologies will include air- or

ground-source heat pumps, and using heat rom

power stations. Both o these are solutions proven

by their use in other countries.

17. During the 2020s, each o these technologies low carbon electricity, low carbon cars and low

carbon heating will move towards mass roll-out.

We estimate that between 40 and 70 gigawatts(GW) o new low carbon power will need to be

deployed by the end o the decade. Emissions or

the average new car will need to all to between

50 and 70 gCO2/km, compared with 144 gCO

2/ km

in 2010. Between 21% and 45% o heat supply to

our buildings will need to be low carbon by 2030.

18. By developing options now, the UK will

not only reduce the costs o deploying these

technologies in the 2020s. It will also gain a long-

term competitive advantage in sectors that play to

our comparative strengths. These include oshore

wind, carbon capture and storage, and inormation

services to manage smart grids, heating controls

and transport.

19. To 2030 and beyond, emissions rom the

hard-to-treat sectors industry, aviation, shipping

and agriculture will need to be tackled. This

will require a range o solutions to be tested by

at the latest, the 2020s, including: greater energyeciency; switching rom oil and gas to bioenergy

or low carbon electricity; and carbon capture and

storage or industrial processes.

Sectoral plans

Lw ab bl

20. In 2009, 37% o UK emissions were produced

rom heating and powering homes and buildings.

By 2050, all buildings will need to have an emissions

ootprint close to zero. Buildings will need to

become better insulated, use more energy-

ecient products and obtain their heating rom

low carbon sources.

Energy efciency

21. Over the next decade, with trends ininstallation rates maintained at todays levels, all

cavity walls and lots, where practical, will be

insulated. Alongside this, the Government will

support up to 1.5 million solid wall insulations

and other energy eciency measures such as

double glazing.

22. The Green Deal, launching in 2012, will

remove the upront costs to the consumer o

energy eciency, with the cost being recouped

through savings on their energy bills. The EnergyCompany Obligation will support this eort. It

will place a duty on energy companies both to

reduce emissions through undertaking solid wall

insulation and to tackle uel poverty by installing

central heating systems, replacing boilers, and

subsidising cavity wall and lot insulation. In parallel,

Smart Meters will be deployed to every home

to support consumers in managing their energy

and expenditure intelligently. The Government

will introduce zero carbon homes standards

to cut the energy demand o new homes still

urther, reducing emissions and uel bills. Through

European energy standards and labelling we will

promote the sales o the most ecient electrical

appliances and products on the market.

23. During the 2020s, deployment o solid wallinsulation will increase and installation costs will

all as the supply chain and the skills base become

established. Chart 1 shows dierent levels o

ambition or the uptake o solid wall insulation,ranging rom 1 million to 3.7 million additional

homes insulated by 2030.


11/220

6 Executive summary

Chart 1: Projected deployment o solid wall insulation over the rst three carbon budgets, andillustrative range o deployment over the ourth carbon budget period and in 2050

Projected deployment

over the first four

carbon budget periods

Range of additional

deployment during

the fourth carbon

budget period

Illustrative range ofdeployment in 2050

9

CB1 CB2 CB3 CB48

,millions)

7

etiv

6ula

tions(cum

5

Numberofsolidw

allinsula

4

3

2

1

0

By 2030 expecting to deploy

an additional 13.7 million

solid wall insulations.

Projected deployment of

up to 1.5 million insulations

by 2020.

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2050

Year

Source: Department o Energy and Climate Change

Low carbon heating

24. Energy eciency is the immediate priority.

But in this decade we also need to support wayso heating buildings without emitting carbon.

Through the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) and

Renewable Heat Premium Payment, over 130,000

low carbon heat installations are expected to be

carried out by 2020.5 While we do not expect

mass-market deployment o these technologies in

this decade, there is an important opportunity to

build the market, particularly in o-gas grid homes

and in the commercial sector. At the same time

the Government will work with local authorities,

where appropriate, to lay the oundations or

district heating networks, particularly in urban

areas with more densely packed demand or heat.

This should enable the long-term delivery o heat

rom low carbon sources.

25. During the 2020s, we need to begin the massdeployment o low carbon heat. Technologies such

as heat pumps will begin to expand at scale into

residential areas, overcoming current barriers such

as cost and unamiliarity, and working with the

supply chain to meet consumer demand. At the

same time, the heating networks that started

in urban areas during this decade will begin to

expand to meet demand in surrounding areas, andto compete with low carbon heat technologies in

individual buildings, helping to keep costs down.

26. By 2027, based on the scenarios set out in this

plan, emissions rom buildings should be between

24% and 39% lower than 2009 levels.

This only includes installations as a result o RHI Phase 1.5


12/220

Executive summary 7

Chart 2: Projected deployment o low carbon heat in buildings over the rst three carbon budgetsand illustrative ranges o deployment potential in the ourth carbon budget period and in 2050

600

500

TWh)

tion( 400

ojec

tpr

wca

rbonhea 300

allo 200

otT

100

0

CB1 CB2 CB3 CB4

By 2030 delivering between

83 and 165 TWh of low

carbon heat, plus 1038 TWh

from heating networks.

Projected deployment

over the first four

carbon budget periods

Range of additional

deployment during

the fourth carbon

budget period

Illustrative range ofdeployment in 2050

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2050

Year

Source: Department o Energy and Climate Change

Lw ab tat

27. Domestic transpor t emissions make up nearly

a quarter o UK emissions. By 2050, domestic

transport will need to substantially reduce

its emissions.

28. Over the next decade, average emissions onew cars are set to all by around a third, primarily

through more ecient combustion engines.

Sustainable biouels will also deliver substantial

emissions reductions. As deeper cuts are required,

vehicles will run on ultra-low emission technologies

such as electric batteries, hydrogen uel cells and

plug-in hybrid technology. These vehicles could

also help to deliver wider environmental benets,

including improved local air quality and reduced

trac noise.

29. To ensure that these emissions savings are

delivered, the Government will continue to

work at European Union (EU) level to press or

strong EU vehicle emissions standards or 2020

and beyond in order to deliver improvements

in conventional vehicle eciency and give

certainty about uture markets or ultra-low

emission vehicles.

30. To support the growth o the ultra-low

emission vehicle market, the Government is

providing around 300 million this Parliament orconsumer incentives, worth up to 5,000 per car,

and urther support or the research, development

and demonstration o new technologies.

31. During the 2020s, we will move towards themass market roll-out o ultra-low emission vehicles,

although urther improvements in the eciency

o conventional vehicles and sustainable biouels

are also anticipated to play a key role. Based on

current modelling the Government anticipates

that average new car emissions could need tobe 5070 gCO

2/km and new van emissions

75105 gCO2/km by 2030.


13/220

8 Executive summary

Chart 3: Projected average new car and van emissions over the frst three carbon budgets and

illustrative ranges o average new car and van emissions in the ourth carbon budget period and

to 2050

250

200

150

100

50

0

Carsandvans(gCO2/km)

Vans (2030: 105 gCO2/km)Vans (2030: 90 gCO2/km)Vans (2030: 75 gCO2/km)

Cars (2030: 70 gCO2/km)Cars (2030: 60 gCO2/km)Cars (2030: 50 gCO2/km)

2050

2047

2044

2041

2038

2035

2032

2029

2026

2023

2020

2017

2014

2011

2008

Increasing internal combustion engine eciency

Increasing uptake of ultra-low emission vehicles

Year

32. While cars and vans make up the largest

share o emissions, other sectors will need todecarbonise over time.

33. To support people to make lower carbon

travel choices, such as walking, cycling or public

transport, the Government is providing a

560 million Local Sustainable Transport Fund

over the lietime o this Parliament.

34. Industry is leading the drive to reduce

emissions rom reight. The Logistics Carbon

Reduction Scheme, or example, aims to reduceemissions by 8% by 2015, through improved

eciency and some modal shit to rail. For the

longer term, to make deeper reductions in

emissions, innovation will be needed in ultra-low

emissions technologies such as sustainable biouels

and electric, hydrogen or hybrid technologies.

35. Emissions rom aviation will be capped by being

part o the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)

rom 2012, ensuring that any increases in aviation

emissions are ofset by reductions elsewhere in theEU economy, or internationally.

36. By 2027, based on the scenarios set out in this

plan, emissions rom transport should be between17% and 28% lower than 2009 levels.

Low carbon industry

37. Industry makes up nearly a quarter o the

UKs total emissions. Over 80% o these emissions

originate rom generating the heat that is needed

or industrial processes such as manuacturing

steel and ceramics, and the remainder rom

chemical reactions involved in processes such as

cement production. By 2050, the Government

expects industry to have delivered its air share o

emissions cuts, achieving reductions o up to 70%

rom 2009 levels.

38. The Government will work with industry to

ensure that low carbon growth continues into the

uture. Industry must make signicant reductions

in the emissions intensity o production, while the

Government assists in maintaining the competitiveness

o strategically important sectors. Emissions reductionswill come rom three sources: rst, driving urther

eciencies in the use o energy and materials and the

design o industrial processes; second, replacing ossil

uels with low carbon alternatives such as bioenergy


14/220

Executive summary 9

and electrication; and third, rom carbon capture and

storage (CCS) to address combustion and process

emissions, or example in cement and steel.

39. Over the next decade, the main chances orindustry to decarbonise will come rom taking up

the remaining opportunities or energy eciency,

and beginning the move to low carbon uels, such

as using sustainable biomass to generate heat

or industrial processes. Through the EU ETS

and domestic policies such as Climate Change

Agreements and the CRC Energy Eciency Scheme

the Government is helping to ensure that these cost

eective energy eciency measures are being taken

up. Innovation eorts during this period will also beimportant, bringing down the cost o decarbonising

industrial processes and moving technology options

such as electrication and CCS closer to commercial

reality. CCS technology research projects are being

strongly backed by UK and international sources o

unding, with the aim o turning CCS into a viable

option or the coming decades.

40. During the 2020s, in addition to energyeciency measures, reductions will be driven by

switching to low carbon uels. As with buildings,the Government expects industry to take

advantage o the Renewable Heat Incentive,

replacing expensive ossil uels with low carbon

heat alternatives and thereby accelerating the

decarbonisation o industry in the 2020s. CCS

technology is also expected to start to be

deployed during this decade.

41. Throughout this transition the Government

will work closely with industry to address the

principal risks, including the impact o anticipated

increases in energy costs, to ensure that UK

industry remains internationally competitive. The

Government announced a package o measures to

support sectors which are particularly exposed

to these risks.

42. By 2027, emissions rom industry should be

between 20% and 24% lower than 2009 levels.

Lw ab ltt

43. The power sector accounts or 27% o UK

total emissions by source. By 2050, emissions rom

the power sector need to be close to zero.

44. With the potential electrication o heating,

transport and industrial processes, average

electricity demand may rise by between 30% and

60%. We may need as much as double todays

electricity capacity to deal with peak demand.

Electricity is likely to be produced rom three

main low carbon sources: renewable energy,

particularly onshore and oshore wind arms; a

new generation o nuclear power stations; andgas and coal-red power stations tted with

CCS technology. Renewable energy accounted

or approximately hal o the estimated 194 GW

o new electricity capacity added globally during

2010.6 Fossil uels without CCS will only be used

as back-up electricity capacity at times o very high

demand. The grid will need to be larger, stronger

and smarter to refect the quantity, geography and

intermittency o power generation. We will also

need a more fexible electricity system to cope

with fuctuations in supply and demand.

45. While the overall direction is clear, major

uncertainties remain over both the most cost

eective mix o technologies and the pace o

transition. The Government is committed to

ensuring that the low carbon technologies with the

lowest costs will win the largest market share.

46. Over the next decade, we need to continuereducing emissions rom electricity generation

through increasing the use o gas instead o coal,and more generation rom renewable sources.

Alongside this, we will prepare or the rapid

decarbonisation required in the 2020s and 2030s

by supporting the demonstration and deployment

o the major low carbon technologies that we

will need on the way to 2050. The reorms to the

electricity market will be the most important step

in making this happen. The introduction o Feed-in

Taris with Contracts or Dierence rom 2014 will

provide stable nancial incentives or investment in

all orms o low carbon generation.

REN21 (2011) Renewables 2011: Global Status Report.6


15/220

10 Executive summary

47. In addition, the Government is:

helping industry to reduce the costs o oshorewind by setting up an Oshore Wind CostReduction Task Force with the aim o driving

down the cost o oshore wind to 100 per

megawatt hour (MWh) by 2020;

supporting the development o CCS technologyat scale in a commercial environment, to bring

down costs and risks, with 1 billion set aside to

support the programme;

supporting the demonstration o less maturerenewable technologies, and committing up to50 million over the next our years to support

innovation in marine and oshore technologies;

enabling mature low carbon technologiessuch as nuclear to compete by addressing the

barriers to deployment such as an under

developed UK supply chain; and

working with Ogem and the industry todeliver the investment required to ensure that

the electricity transmission and distribution

networks will be able to cope in the uture.

48. Maintaining secure energy supplies remains

a core government priority. New gas-red

generation will play a signicant supporting role as

19 GW o existing generation capacity closes over

the next decade.

49. Over the 2020s, large-scale deployment o

low carbon generation will be needed, with, we

estimate, 4070 GW o new capacity required

by 2030. This will drive a huge reduction inemissions rom electricity supply. In the 2020s,

the Government wants to see nuclear, renewables

and CCS competing to deliver energy at the

lowest possible cost. As we do not know how

costs will change over time, we are not setting

targets or each technology or a decarbonisation

target at this point.

Chart 4: Projected deployment o low carbon generation over the rst three carbon budgets and

illustrative ranges o deployment potential in the ourth carbon budget period and in 2050

160

80

60

CB1 CB2 CB3 CB4140

Projected low carbon120generation over the

first four carbon budget

periods100

Around 4070 GW of new

low-carbon capacity will be

needed by 2030, in addition to

10 GW of existing capacity that

will still be operating

in 2050

40

20

0

tion/GW

wcarbongenera Range of additional

low carbon generation

during the fourthcarbon budget period

allo

otT

Illustrative range of

low carbon generation

2008

2013

2018

2023

2028

2033

2038

2043

2048

2050

Year

Source: Department o Energy and Climate Change, Redpoint modelling, 2050 Calculator


16/220

Executive summary 11

50. The scenarios modelled in this plan show that

by 2030 new nuclear could contribute 1015 GW,

with up to 20 GW achievable i build rates are

higher; ossil uel generation with CCS couldcontribute as much as 10 GW; and renewable

electricity could deliver anywhere between 35 and

50 GW depending on assumptions about costs

and build rates.

51. By the end o the ourth budget period, our

analysis suggests that emissions rom electricity

generation could be between 75% and 84% lower

than 2009 levels.

Alt, la , ta wat

52. As set out above, the majority o emissions

reductions will come rom action in buildings,

transport, industry and electricity generation.

However, eorts elsewhere will continue to

contribute in the next decade, during the ourth

carbon budget period, and ultimately to meeting

the 2050 target.

53. In 2009, agriculture, orestry and land

management together accounted or around 9%

o UK emissions. The Government is encouraging

practical actions which lead to eciencies such as

improved crop nutrient management and better

breeding and eeding practices, which save both

money and emissions. The Government is also

working to improve its evidence base to better

understand what this sector can easibly deliver

in the uture. The Government will undertake a

review o progress towards reducing greenhousegas emissions rom agriculture in 2012 which will

assess the impact o existing measures and highlight

urther policy options. Next spring an independent

panel will provide advice on the uture direction o

orestry and woodland policy in England.

54. In 2009, emissions rom waste management

represented a little over 3% o the UK total.

The Government is committed to working

towards a zero waste economy, and by 2050

it is estimated that emissions o methane rom

landll (responsible or around 90% o the sectors

emissions) will be substantially below current

levels. The Government is working to improve our

scientic understanding o these emissions so thatthey can be managed better. Our strategy over

the next decade was set out in the Action Plan

which accompanied the Review o Waste Policy in

England, and includes increases to the landll tax.

By the end o 2013 the Government will develop

a comprehensive Waste Prevention Programme,

and work with businesses and other organisations

on a range o measures to drive waste reduction

and re-use.

A plan that adds up55. Part 3 o this report outlines some illustrative

scenarios to demonstrate dierent ways in which

the ourth carbon budget could be met through

dierent combinations o the various ambitions in

the dierent sectors. As the Government develops

its policy ramework urther it will look to meet

the ourth budget in the most cost eective and

sustainable way and keep costs under review,

developing clear impact assessments and consultingpublicly on policies beore it implements them.

A ull list o the Governments energy and climate

change commitments or this Parliament is set out

at Annex C.

56. We will also continue to work on the

international stage to ensure that this is a genuinely

collaborative global eort. Other countries

are already taking actions to decarbonise their

economies and we will continue to push or

ambitious action both in the EU and globally.At the EU level, the UK is pushing or the EU to

show more ambition by moving to a tighter 2020

emissions target, which in turn will drive a more

stringent EU ETS cap. We will review our progress

in 2014. I at that point our domestic commitments

place us on a dierent emissions trajectory than

the ETS trajectory agreed by the EU, we will, as

appropriate, revise up our budget to align it with

the actual EU trajectory.7

Beore seeking Parliamentary approval to amend the level o the ourth carbon budget, the Government will take into account the advice o the

Committee on Climate Change, and any representations made by the other national authorities.

7


17/220

12 Executive summary

Building a coalitionfor change57. To make this transition, industry, theGovernment and the public need to be pulling in

the same direction.

58. For industry, the global low carbon market

is projected to reach 4 trillion by 2015 as

economies around the world invest in low carbon

technology. The innovation challenge or industry

is in business models as well as technologies, with

electric vehicles, renewable electricity and solid

wall insulation requiring upront investment, but

delivering large savings in operating costs.

59. Industry must lead, but the Government

can acilitate. This plan provides more clarity

on the scale o the UK market opportunity and

the pace o transition. In the next decade, the

state will support innovation to ensure that key

technologies can get o the ground. Rather than

pick a winning technology, the Government will

create markets that enable competing low carbon

technologies to win the largest market shareas the pace o change accelerates in the 2020s.

New business models require new institutional

rameworks that underpin long-term investment.

That is the purpose behind both the Green Deal

and Electricity Market Reorm. As we make the

transition, the state will need to solve co-ordination

problems and ensure that the system as a whole

coheres or example, to understand wheninrastructure decisions are required relating to

the electricity grid, the gas network and charging

points or electric cars.

60. The plans or new electricity inrastructure

and changes in the way in which we travel and

heat our homes will require public support. While

public opinion is in avour o tackling climate

change, there is little agreement over how to go

about it. This plan shows that the UK can move

to a sustainable low carbon economy withoutsacricing living standards, but by investing in new

cars, power stations and buildings. However, it will

require the public to accept new inrastructure

and changes to the way in which we heat homes,

and to be prepared to invest in energy eciency

that will save money over time. As part o this

Carbon Plan, the Government is launching a

new 2050 Calculator, to enable a more inormed

debate about UK energy choices and develop

a national consensus on how we move to a low

carbon economy. The Government will also use

this plan to build more consensus globally on how

moving to a low carbon transition is a practical and

achievable goal.


18/220

13

Part 1: The Governments

approach to energy and climatechange

Introduction1.1 The UK, in common with other countries,

aces two great risks over the coming decades:

First, i we are not able to constrain globalgreenhouse gas emissions, the world aces the

prospect o dangerous climate change, whichwill have unprecedented impacts on global

security and prosperity.

Second, the UK aces challenges to its energysecurity as our current generation o powerstations closes and we must ensure supplies

o energy which are resilient to volatile ossil

uel prices.

Th that lmat ha

1.2 Climate change is one o the greatest threats

acing the world today. There is an overwhelmingscientic consensus that climate change is

happening, and that it is primarily the result o

human activity. There is now almost 40% more

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there

was beore the industrial revolution, the highest

level seen in at least the last 800,000 years. As

a consequence, global average temperatures

continue to rise. 200009 was the warmest

decade on record, and 2010 matched 2005 and

1998 as the equal warmest year.8

1.3 The UK accounts or less than 1.5% o global

greenhouse gas emissions,9 so we have a clear

national interest in ensuring that the world tackles

climate change together. Climate change is a

global problem, and it requires a global solution.

Thereore the UKs international approach

ocuses on:

encouraging the European Union todemonstrate leadership on climate change;

infuencing global political and economicconditions to secure action rom other

countries to limit greenhouse gas emissions;

helping developing countries to build the climateresilience o their economies and move towards

low carbon growth in the uture; and

working or a comprehensive global climatechange agreement.

1.4 At the same time as mitigating climate change,

the Government is committed to ensuring that the

UK is resilient to the eects o a changing climate.

The Climate Change Risk Assessment to be

published next year will provide an assessment o

climate change risks and opportunities or the UK.

The assessment will underpin the development

o a National Adaptation Programme establishing

priorities or UK adaptation policy over the next

ve years.

8For urther inormation on climate science see: Royal Society (2010) Climate Change: A summary o the science. Available at:

http://royalsociety.org/climate-change-summary-o-science/9

Climate Analysis Indicators Tool. Available at: http://cait.wri.org/
http://royalsociety.org/climate-change-summary-of-science/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://royalsociety.org/climate-change-summary-of-science/


19/220

14 Part 1: The Governments approach to energy and climate change

Mata t

1.5 We ace three challenges to our energy

security. First, by 2020, the UK could be importing

nearly 50% o its oil and 55% or more o its gas.

At a time o rising global demand, and continued

geopolitical instability, the risk o high and

volatile energy prices, and physical disruptions

will remain. Second, we will lose a th o our

electricity generating capacity due to the closure

o coal and nuclear plants over the coming

decade. Third, in the long term, while dependence

on imported energy is expected to all, we will ace

a new challenge in balancing more intermittent

supply o energy rom renewables with morevariable electricity demand rom electric cars,

or electric heating. Our system will need to be

resilient to mid-winter peaks in heating demand

due to cold weather, and troughs in supply due to

low wind speeds.

1.6 To meet our energy security needs, gas and

oil will continue to play a valuable role as we

make the transition to a low carbon economy.

Gas will be needed over the coming decades

both or heating and or electricity generation.Even in 2050, gas will contribute to electricity

supply in the orm o power stations tted with

carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology or

as back-up to intermittent renewable generation.

Our energy strategy seeks to underpin secure

and diverse energy supplies, both domestically

and internationally. This involves encouraging

investment in oil and gas production; promoting

reliable supply through more ecient markets

and strengthened bilateral trading relations;

and enhancing price stability through improved

transparency and dialogue.

Our principles1.7 The Government is determined that we

should address the twin challenges o tackling

climate change and maintaining our energy security

in a way that minimises costs and maximisesbenets to our economy.

1.8 To achieve this, we will ollow a clear set o

principles:

We should always aim or the most costeective means to achieve our aims. Thisnecessitates using less energy across the

economy. And it requires using the mostcost eective technologies to drive urther

eciencies and meet remaining demand.

A diverse portolio o technologies,competing against each other or marketshare, can drive innovation and costreduction. While our principle is to choose themost cost eective mix o technologies in any

sector, the reality is that we do not yet know

how these technologies will develop, how their

costs will change, or what other technologiesmay yet emerge. In transport this could mean

electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen cars, or

the use o biouels. In heating this could mean

building-level technologies such as air- and

ground-source heat pumps or network-level

options such as district heating. For that reason,

the Government aims to encourage a portolio

o technologies and create competitive market

conditions in which the most cost eective

succeed over time.

Clear long-term signals about the regulatoryramework can support cost reduction.There is a role or the Government in providing

clear, unambiguous signals to the market and

a stable long-term regulatory ramework to

create the conditions or the investment that is

undamental to economic growth and the move

to a low carbon economy.

The Government should help to tacklemarket ailures and unblock barriers toinvestment to encourage growth in newertechnologies. While competition between

technologies and businesses is the best way to

ensure that we nd the most cost eective mix,

there is a role or the Government in identiying

where it can constructively enable the market,

particularly where technology deployment relies

on the creation o new inrastructure.

Costs must be distributed airly. TheGovernment will continue to ocus on thedistributional impacts o the low carbon

transition. We are supporting consumers by
http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/


20/220


providing subsidised insulation, delivered by

energy companies, to the most vulnerable

households, as well as bill rebates to more

than 600,000 vulnerable pensioners. TheGovernment also recognises the challenges

conronting energy-intensive industries,

including the diculties some ace in remaining

internationally competitive while driving down

domestic emissions. We are taking active

steps to support these industries through the

transition, recognising the uture role these

sectors will play in delivering economic growth.

1.9 Reducing emissions will have wider impacts.

Creating a low carbon and resource ecienteconomy means making major structural changes

to the way in which we work and live, including

how we source, manage and use our energy.

The Government is committed to identiying a

sustainable route or making that transition by

balancing greenhouse gas benets, cost, energy

security and impacts on the natural environment.

By adopting these principles, we seek to maximise

the potential economic benets to the UK rom

making the transition to a low carbon economy,

as well as to minimise adverse impacts or the

environment and public.10 Doing this in the most

cost eective way will help to enable us to:

use our resources more efciently. Managingenergy and resource demand reduces costs

to businesses and consumers, releasing

spending power that can increase growth and

productivity elsewhere. Lower demand or

energy reduces risks to the security o our

energy supplies;

reduce our exposure to ossil uel pricevolatility. According to the Oce or BudgetResponsibility, a temporary 20% increase in

the oil price (adjusted to remove infation)

would lead to a loss o potential output in the

UK o over 0.3% in the ollowing year;11 and

create long-term comparative advantages.Being an early mover in technologies such

as renewables and CCS could give the UK a

long-term comparative advantage in growing

global markets or these technologies.

The vision for 20501.10 These principles will underpin our vision

or a long-term transition to a low carbon

economy. By 2050 we will have transormed

our buildings, transport and industry, the way in

which we generate electricity and our agriculture

and orestry.

1.11 Low carbon buildings: Heating and powering

buildings produced 38% o the UKs emissionsin 2009. Those emissions are a result o burning

ossil uels to heat buildings, and generating the

electricity that powers our lighting and appliances.

Buildings will need to be much better insulated and

make use o Smart Meters and heating controls,

and more ecient lighting and appliances, to

reduce their demand or energy. At the same

time, we will move away rom the use o ossil

uels or heating and hot water and towards low

carbon alternatives such as heat pumps or heatingnetworks. By 2050, emissions rom heating and

powering our buildings will be virtually zero.

1.12 Low carbon transport: Transport is a majorcontributor to the UKs energy demand and

greenhouse gas emissions, creating 24% o the

UK total in 2009. Most o those emissions come

rom the oil-based uels we rely upon or road

transport. A step-change is needed to move away

rom ossil uels and towards ultra-low carbon

alternatives such as battery electric or uel cellvehicles. New technologies will have implications

or energy security, with increased demands likely

to be placed on the grid by ultra-low emission

vehicles (such as electric cars), as well as presenting

new opportunities or vehicles to help balance

variations in demand or electricity over time and

reducing our exposure to volatile oil prices.

10 In summer 2012 the Government will launch a research programme on sustainable pathways to 2050 which will consider the cumulativeimpacts o and interactions between dierent low carbon technologies. See Annex B or urther details on the wider environmentalimpacts o reducing emissions and meeting carbon budgets.

11 OBR (2010)Assessment o the Eect o Oil Price Fluctuations on the Public Finances . Available at:http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicnances.pd
http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://cait.wri.org/http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdf


21/220

16 Part 1: The Governments approach to energy and climate change

1.13 Low carbon industry: Industry currentlyaccounts or nearly one quarter o UK emissions,

generated by burning ossil uels or heat and by

the chemical reactions involved in some industrialprocesses. Production o goods rom paper to

steel will need to become more energy ecient

and switch over to low carbon uel sources.

1.14 Low carbon power generation: Thepower sector currently accounts or 27% o UK

emissions. As heating, transport and industry

become increasingly electried, the amount o

electricity we need to generate is very likely to

increase rom today, and it will need to be almost

entirely carbon-ree. By 2050, the three sourceso UK electricity are likely to be renewables (in

particular onshore and oshore wind arms); coal,

biomass or gas-red power stations tted with

CCS technology; and nuclear power.12 The grid

will need to be larger, stronger and smarter to

refect the quantity, geography and intermittency

o power generation. We will also need to ensure

the security o the ossil uel resources required to

make the low carbon transition.

1.15 Low greenhouse gas agriculture andorestry: Emissions rom agriculture, land use andorestry mostly in the orm o nitrous oxide and

methane made up around 9% o total emissions

in 2009, but will account or an increasingly large

share o overall UK greenhouse gas emissions as

other sectors decarbonise over the next three

decades. In order to meet our 2050 target, the

agricultural sector will need to contribute to

reducing emissions by adopting more ecient

practices. We will also ensure the development oa sustainable and expanding orestry sector.

2050 futures1.16 While our vision or 2050 is clear, there are

huge uncertainties when looking 40 years aheadas to exactly how that vision will be achieved. Our

approach has been to try to explore a range o

plausible scenarios or what the UK might look

like in 2050 and to seek to draw lessons rom

the similarities and dierences between those

scenarios. In line with our principle o seeking the

most cost eective technology mix, our starting

point or this has been to take the outputs o the

core run o the cost-optimising model, MARKAL,

which was produced as part o the Department o

Energy and Climate Changes analysis to supportthe setting o the ourth carbon budget.13

1.17 On the supply side, the core MARKAL run

produces a balanced generation mix, with 33 gigawatts

(GW) o nuclear, 45 GW o renewables and 28

GW o ossil uel with CCS power capacity by

2050. On the demand side, the model run drives

a sharp reduction in per capita energy demand;

in this run, everybody in the UK would use hal as

much energy in 2050 as they do today, due to the

adoption o more energy ecient technologies,with heat pumps, district heating, battery electric

and uel cell vehicles.

1.18 This is only a starting point. Attempting to

pick a single pathway to 2050 by relying on a single

model is neither possible nor a helpul guide in the

ace o great uncertainty. But it does give insight

into the most cost eective way to achieve the

low carbon transition, illustrating the technologies

likely to contribute to reducing emissions, and the

most cost eective timing or their deployment.

It shows that achieving a cost-optimal transition

overall oten necessitates deploying technologies

in the medium term that may not yet be statically

cost eective against the carbon price.14

12 The UK Government works in partnership with the Devolved Administrations in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to deliver thetargets set by the Climate Change Act 2008. While the administrations have a shared goal o reducing the impacts o climate change,policies on how to achieve this vary across the administrations the Scottish Government, or example, is opposed to the developmento new nuclear power stations in Scotland. It believes that renewables, ossil uels with CCS and energy eciency represent the best long-term solution to Scotlands energy security. This document ocuses largely on UK Government policy on climate change, with DevolvedAdministration views set out in Working with the EU and Devolved Administrations on page 99.

13 HMG (2011) Fourth Carbon Budget Level: Impact Assessment (fnal). MARKAL is discussed urther at Annex A.14 The cost eectiveness o measures is aected by the scale and timing o their deployment. Static cost eectiveness does not account or

changes to a measures cost eectiveness due to variations in the scale and timing o its deployment.
http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdf


22/220


1.19 Alongside this core MARKAL run the

Government has developed three urther utures

that attempt to stress test the results o the core

run by recognising that there will be changes thatwe cannot predict in the development, cost and

public acceptability o dierent technologies in

every sector o the economy.

Figure 1: 2050 utures

Higher

renewables;

more energy

efciencySt

tch

an

ge

e

chnolog

ep-changein

beh

a

Step-changeinCC

S

andst

technology,inpowerand

,reneindustryapp

licationsorage

ycosts

wab

le

Higher CCS;vio

ur

more

bioenergyCoreMARKAL

ame-ch

anging er

yco

st

ough

inpow

Nog

technolo

g

eakthr

br

Higher nuclear;

less energy

efciency

1.20 Future Higher renewables, more energyefciency assumes a major reduction in the costo renewable generation alongside innovations that

acilitate a large expansion in electricity storage

capacity. This helps to manage the challenges

o those renewables that are intermittent. It is

consistent with a world where high ossil uel prices

or global political commitment to tackling climate

change drives major investment and innovation

in renewables.

1.21 As a consequence, the power generation mix

includes deployment o wind, solar, marine and

other renewable technologies, as well as back-up

gas generation. This uture also assumes a major

reduction in per capita energy demand driven by

people embracing low carbon behaviour changes

and smart new technologies such as heating

controls, and recognising the nancial benets o

taking up energy eciency opportunities. We

electriy the majority o our demand or heat,

industry and transport using ground- and air-

source heat pumps in buildings and electried

industrial processes, and we travel in ultra-lowemissions vehicles.

1.22 Future Higher CCS, more bioenergyassumes the successul deployment o CCS

technology at commercial scale and its use in

power generation and industry, supported by

signicant natural gas imports, driven by changes

such as a reduction in ossil uel prices as a result o

large-scale exploitation o shale gas reserves. It also

assumes low and plentiul sustainable bioenergy

resources (see box 2).

1.23 In this uture, signicant amounts o

relatively low cost, sustainable biomass result in

CCS also being used with biomass (BE-CCS) to

generate negative emissions.15 Negative emissions

production is a game-changer in that it could oset

the continued burning o ossil uels elsewhere

in the energy system. In this scenario, BE-CCS

creates around 50 million tonnes carbon dioxide

equivalent (MtCO2e) o negative emissions

equivalent to almost 10% o todays total whichcreates headroom or some ossil uel use.

As a result, this pathway has less electrication

o heat and transport, with more heat demand

met through network-level heating systems such

as district heating or combined heat and power.

In transport, more demand is met through

sustainable biouels use in cars and buses, while

strong eort is made to improve the eciency o

UK land management. No unabated gas generation

is needed to balance the system in this uture.

1.24 Future Higher nuclear, less energyefciency is a uture that is more cautious aboutinnovation in newer technologies. CCS does

not become commercially viable. Innovation in

oshore wind and solar does not produce major

cost reductions. Lack o innovation in solid wall

insulation results in low public acceptability o

energy eciency measures.

15 In the 2050 modelling, biomass uel sources are typically assumed to be zero carbon because the CO2

released with their combustionis equal to the amount sequestered through the process o growing the biomass. Capture o this CO

2through use o CCS technology

(BE-CCS) removes it rom the system altogether by pumping it underground thereby creating negative emissions.
http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/wordpress/docs/assessment_oilprice_publicfinances.pdfhttp://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/

3702 the carbon plan delivering our low carbon future

Documents