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www.metalbulletinresearch.com may 2014 MBR ALUMINIUM WEEKLY marKet tracKer

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Issue 379

12 may 2014

Aluminium prices slipped further last weekAluminium prices continued to fall last week dropping to a low of $1,755.25/tonne on Friday, taking the pull-back to around $147/tonne since the highs on April 11. This has now taken prices back into the trading range that prices were in February and March.

Hydro to permanently close Kurri KurriNorsk Hydro has last week decided to permanently shut the Kurri Kurri smelter (commissioned in 1969). In May 2012, Hydro decided to cut production due to significant cash losses at the plant, as a result of low metal prices and the strong Australian dollar which made Australian primary material relatively uncompetitive on the international market.

Chinese bauxite imports in March droppedChina’s bauxite imports fell significantly by -59.9% y-o-y in March 2014 to 1.83 million tonnes. Although we witnessed China increasing imports from Malaysia, Ghana, Brazil and the Dominican Republic as an alternative to Indonesia, the total amount from these four countries cannot offset the slump in deliveries of Indonesian bauxite.

Independent weekly price forecasts and analysis for the global aluminium industry

ContentsMarket Analysis 3

Primary Aluminium

Technical Analysis 7Demand Analysis 8Supply Analysis 10Recycled Aluminium

and Scrap 12Aluminia & Bauxite Analysis 14Demand Indicators 18 Features ScheduleSemis Products May 7

Alumina & Bauxite May 12Carbon Products May 19

Funds Flow May 27

MBR ALUMINIUM WEEKLY MARKET TRACKER

Metal Bulletin Research LME price indicatorAvg. 3-month price for trading period 12 May - 16 May versusLME avg. 3-month price for trading period 06 May - 09 May of $1,728/tonne

Analysts: Yang Cao, Keval Dhokia, Andy Cole Editor: Yang Cao Tel: +44 (20) 7556 6047, [email protected] For subscriptions: Tel: +44 (20) 7779 7999, [email protected] by Metal Bulletin Ltd, Nestor House, Playhouse Yard, London EC4V 5EV, United Kingdom © Copyright 2014

3-Month LMe Price and Moving Averages spot sHFe Price and Moving Averages

source: mbr,lme source: mbr,shFe

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14

($/t

onne

s)

SHFE Spot100 Day MA200 Day MA

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600


($/t

onne

s)

3-Month Price100 Day MA200 Day MA

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3MARkeT analysis


3MArket analysis

IAI Unwrought LME

Afr NAm LAm Asia Eur Aus Total Asia Eur NAm LME Total SHFE (2) Japan Port (3)Total Stocks Change (4)

mar 12 72 320 159 335 418 87 1,391 912 1,933 2,219 5,063 369 245 7,082 -39

apr 12 81 325 148 355 451 93 1,453 893 1,936 2,196 5,025 349 235 7,051 -31

may 12 98 324 136 351 438 84 1,431 856 1,934 2,129 4,919 321 223 6,919 -132

Jun 12 90 272 131 330 413 78 1,314 793 1,963 2,078 4,834 312 233 6,682 -237

Jul 12 77 326 130 340 409 81 1,363 748 2,098 2,041 4,887 325 235 6,802 120

aug 12 81 256 150 348 437 71 1,343 710 2,188 1,972 4,870 369 261 6,858 56

sep 12 83 277 126 332 423 65 1,306 691 2,233 2,133 5,056 402 274 7,032 173

oct 12 119 245 134 333 377 96 1,304 675 2,389 2,014 5,077 445 258 7,079 47

nov 12 95 261 121 341 356 57 1,231 709 2,516 1,982 5,207 465 273 7,168 89

Dec 12 68 286 128 325 381 67 1,255 711 2,525 1,974 5,210 442 284 7,191 23

Jan 13 70 281 117 349 417 74 1,308 701 2,518 1,938 5,157 431 316 7,210 19

Feb 13 78 297 130 331 381 70 1,287 683 2,579 1,900 5,162 472 286 7,217 7

mar 13 65 293 125 295 376 76 1,230 686 2,682 1,869 5,237 505 267 7,231 13

apr 13 72 285 134 322 335 70 1,218 666 2,727 1,765 5,158 468 279 7,117 -114

may 13 71 259 137 318 322 72 1,179 662 2,816 1,724 5,202 438 272 7,087 -30

Jun 13 61 304 127 306 295 85 1,178 661 2,942 1,833 5,436 400 250 7,278 191

Jul 13 59 278 150 313 298 78 1,176 648 3,005 1,825 5,479 366 234 7,247 -31

aug 13 74 290 131 335 303 72 1,205 641 2,986 1,773 5,400 297 262 7,156 -91

sep 13 60 263 125 314 274 63 1,099 632 2,969 1,781 5,381 213 242 6,936 -220

oct 13 50 260 122 325 272 76 1,105 630 3,003 1,742 5,376 210 262 6,953 17

nov 13 45 282 120 338 279 71 1,135 611 2,991 1,868 5,470 197 270 7,073 120

Dec 13 58 284 122 306 329 70 1,169 584 3,009 1,865 5,458 182 263 7,078 6

Jan 14 43 312 135 291 339 78 1,198 577 2,978 1,869 5,424 208 267 7,096 18

Feb 14 49 333 141 268 307 73 1,171 571 2,893 1,847 5,311 215 254 6,950 -146

mar 14 55 317 143 325 298 77 1,215 540 3,055 1,787 5,382 371 238 7,205 255

Q1 13 65 293 125 295 376 76 1,230 686 2,682 1,869 5,237 505 267 7,231 39

Q2 13 61 304 127 306 295 85 1,178 661 2,942 1,833 5,436 400 250 7,278 47

Q3 13 60 263 125 314 274 63 1,099 632 2,969 1,781 5,381 213 242 6,936 -342

Q4 13 58 284 122 306 329 70 1,169 584 3,009 1,865 5,458 182 263 7,078 142

Q1 14 55 317 143 325 298 77 1,215 540 3,055 1,787 5,382 371 238 7,205 127

2011 84 289 138 348 457 88 1,404 948 1,828 2,195 4,970 208 247 6,838 502

2012 68 286 128 325 381 67 1,255 711 2,525 1,974 5,210 369 284 7,191 353

2013 58 284 122 306 329 70 1,169 584 3,009 1,865 5,458 312 263 7,078 -113

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, IAI, LME, Comex, SHFE, ReutersNotes: (1) At period-end. (2) Shanghai Futures Exchange. (3) Stocks held at major Japanese ports (Yokohama, Nagoya and Osaka). (4) Change from preceeding period. (5) Comex has halted its aluminium contract and has ceased reporting aluminium stock levels as of the beginning of October, 2009. We will continue to report past stock levels.

Reported Primary Aluminium stocks ('000 tonnes) (1)

2013 2014 2015Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 f Q3 f Q4 f Q1 f Q2 f Q3 f Q4 f

Regional Analysis ('ooo tonnes)

Productionafrica 1,800 1,643 1,808 1,836 1,869 439 448 460 460 446 448 471 471 463 466 470 470north america 4,969 4,841 4,930 4,430 4,648 1,241 1,260 1,237 1,192 1,115 1,100 1,107 1,109 1,113 1,161 1,187 1,187latin america 2,240 2,055 1,911 1,718 1,779 488 479 481 463 444 434 420 420 441 446 446 446asia (ex. china) 2,876 3,034 2,848 3,604 4,239 674 709 733 733 849 872 929 953 1,037 1,042 1,080 1,081western europe 3,972 3,615 3,583 3,669 3,697 877 892 908 905 907 915 923 923 914 923 930 930eastern/central europe 4,744 4,719 4,450 3,901 4,001 1,109 1,116 1,113 1,111 964 973 982 982 989 998 1,007 1,007australasia 2,306 2,224 2,105 1,928 1,908 521 521 532 531 493 476 479 479 473 476 479 479china 18,047 21,200 24,292 26,169 27,449 6,004 6,018 6,085 6,185 6,458 6,525 6,593 6,593 6,775 6,845 6,914 6,914middle east 3,374 3,738 3,911 4,597 5,034 973 979 981 977 1,094 1,098 1,202 1,202 1,249 1,257 1,264 1,264Consumptionnorth america 4,700 5,363 5,582 5,815 6,089 1,356 1,434 1,351 1,440 1,413 1,494 1,407 1,500 1,480 1,565 1,474 1,571latin america 1,784 1,762 1,884 1,976 2,128 458 465 471 490 480 488 494 514 517 526 532 553asia (ex. china) 8,892 9,104 9,162 9,604 10,136 2,208 2,300 2,217 2,437 2,315 2,411 2,324 2,555 2,443 2,544 2,453 2,696western europe 6,597 6,246 6,135 6,201 6,262 1,472 1,570 1,491 1,601 1,488 1,587 1,507 1,618 1,503 1,603 1,522 1,634china 18,630 20,991 23,195 25,514 27,555 5,381 5,776 5,845 6,193 5,919 6,353 6,430 6,812 6,393 6,861 6,944 7,357others 3,133 3,187 3,053 3,115 3,204 723 764 753 814 737 779 768 830 758 801 790 854World Analysis ('ooo tonnes)Production 44,328 47,068 49,837 51,851 54,624 12,327 12,421 12,530 12,558 12,770 12,843 13,106 13,132 13,453 13,613 13,779 13,779 y-on-y % change 8.3% 6.2% 5.9% 4.0% 5.3% 5.3% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 3.6% 3.4% 4.6% 4.6% 5.3% 6.0% 5.1% 4.9%

consumption 43,737 46,653 49,010 52,225 55,375 11,598 12,309 12,127 12,975 12,352 13,113 12,930 13,830 13,094 13,900 13,715 14,667 y-on-y % change 7.4% 6.7% 5.1% 6.6% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.1%

world market balance 591 415 827 -373 -751 729 112 403 -417 418 -270 176 -697 359 -287 64 -887Stock Analysis ('ooo tonnes)total reported stocks 6,838 7,191 7,078 - - 7,231 7,278 6,936 7,078 7,205 - - - - - - -weeks' consumption (1)

8.2 8.0 7.5 - - 8.02 7.69 7.52 7.17 7.50 - - - - - - -total stocks (2)

8,282 8,697 9,524 9,151 8,400 9,426 9,539 9,941 9,525 9,942 9,673 9,849 9,151 9,510 9,223 9,287 8,400weeks' consumption (1)

9.9 9.7 10.1 9.1 7.9 10.4 10.1 10.8 9.6 10.3 9.6 10.0 8.7 9.3 8.6 8.9 7.5Alumina Analysis ('ooo tonnes) mb alumina index / mbr price forecast (3)

374 319 327.3 323.0 319.3 341 327 318 323 328 317 322 326 312 317 320 328 as % of lme 3-m 15.5% 15.6% 17.3% 17.8% 16.5% 16.7% 15.9% 16.0% 17.5% 18.7% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%

world mGa production 86,909 93,076 98,884 104,169 109,534 24,382 24,653 24,924 24,924 25,686 25,971 26,256 26,256 27,008 27,308 27,609 27,609world mGa demand 86,882 92,253 97,680 101,629 107,063 24,162 24,346 24,559 24,614 25,030 25,172 25,687 25,740 26,367 26,681 27,007 27,008world market balance 27 823 1,204 2,540 2,471 221 307 365 311 656 799 569 517 641 627 602 601LME Prices/Forecasts (4)

cash ($/tonne) 2,395 2,018 1,844 1,775 1,895 2,001 1,835 1,781 1,769 1,708 1,770 1,800 1,820 1,850 1,880 1,900 1,950three-month ($/tonne) 2,420 2,050 1,886 1,815 1,935 2,041 1,870 1,828 1,815 1,752 1,810 1,840 1,860 1,890 1,920 1,940 1,990source: metal bulletin research, iai, lme, wbms

World Primary Aluminium supply/Demand Balance, Alumina Analysis, stocks Analysis and Prices, 2010-2015

notes: (1) based on total world consumption. (2) includes other reported stocks and mbr's estimate of unreported stock at period-end. (3) until 2011 we used the spot Fob international alumina price, now we use metal bulletin's alumina index price. (4) relates to official daily average prices, with the exception of the high and low values which can be set throughout the lme trading day.

2014 f 2015 f 20132011 2012

World Primary Aluminium Supply/Demand Balance, Alumina

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MBR ALUMINIUM WEEKLY marKet tracKer may 2014 www.metalbulletinresearch.com

4 MARkeT analysis

source: mbr, lme

source: mbr,lme

12%16%20%24%28%32%36%40%44%48%52%56%60%

4,5004,6004,7004,8004,9005,0005,1005,2005,3005,4005,5005,6005,700


(% o

f tot

al S

tock

s)

('000

tonn

es)

Total Stocks [LHS]

Cancelled Warrants [RHS]

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14

($/t

)($/t

)

3M-15M contango [LHS]

Cash-3M contango [RHS]

LME data shows a weaker market situationAluminium spreads started to weaken again as prices pulled back from recent highs, which points a drop-off in nearby short-covering and less forward selling pressure as three-month price declined. The cash-to-threes spread narrowed to a low of $30.50/tonne on April 9, which was around the time of the recent price peak, the spread has since returned to around $45/tonne. The 3-15 months spread is last at $100/tonne, out from the mid-$70/tonne seen during the rally. The run-up in prices in April, will have provided marginal producers with another hedging opportunity, making them less vulnerable to having to make cutbacks should prices head lower again. With stocks still at a high level there is danger of further price weakness, although that is mitigated by long exit queues and metal tied into financing deals. One entity holds over 40% of the May long open interestAhead of the May prime date which is Wednesday next week, the aluminium market is looking potentially interesting as one entity is holding between 30-39% of the warrants, tom and cash positions, but perhaps more interesting is that one entity holds over 40% of the long open interest, while three entities each hold between 10 and 19 percent of the short open interest. The combination of one large long, a high level of cancelled warrants and a belief that a lot of the metal in the LME is tied up in financing deals may well pose an issue for the shorts when they come to deal with their May position.

CME launches physically delivered aluminium futures contractsThe CME Group’s new aluminium contract was launched last week and with many consumers annoyed with aspects of the LME aluminium contracts, it may well have been launched at an appropriate time. In theory consumers may well decide to use the CME contract as it better reflects the ‘all-in’ price of aluminium as consumers could if they wished take delivery of the metal and then wait in a much shorter queue than if they were in an LME warehouse queue. To get the metal into CME warehouses, however, may mean an arbitrage window has to open, which implies CME prices will have to be relatively more expensive. Given the shorter time it is likely to take to get metal out of CME warehouses, it is not surprising that CME prices are already trading at a hefty premium of some $370/tonne to LME prices, this partially reflects physical premiums charged over and above LME prices.

LMe cancelled warrants and stocks

Cash-3M contango & 3M-15M contango

MBR Outlook Aluminium prices continued to fall last week dropping to a low of $1,755.25/tonne on Friday, taking the pull-back to around $147/tonne since the highs on April 11. This has now taken prices back into the trading range that prices were in February and March. Generally there was no fresh bearish specific news to drag prices lower, but our view during the run-up in price was that given the high stocks levels we thought it was unlikely that prices would be able to sustain the higher levels and that now seems to have been proved right. It will now be interesting to see how far prices fall, we have been expecting support in the $1,780 to $1,750/tonne range and with prices getting some lift on Monday, support may now be in place. Indeed most of the bearish news last week centred on China’s economic data and aluminium is probably the metal least affected by events in China as its aluminium industry is relatively contained – although that might be changing as exports of aluminium products is picking-up and higher premiums outside China may well encourage more of that.

• Aluminium prices slipped further last week, but may have found support now• Stocks pick-up, but cancelled warrants do not, we expect them to though• Look for prices to become rangebound again


5


5MArket analysis

SHFE

LME LME LME LME cash-3 SHFE MB China Henan Shan- Guang- Yen- Euro- Euro US MW Japan Baltic Change

cash 3-m 15-m 27-m c'tngo spot Alumina Avg dong dong Dollar Dollar spot spot spot Dry on prev.

$/t $/t $/t $/t $/t $/t Index $/t $/t $/t $/t ¥/$ €/$ €/kg ¢/lb ¥/kg Index Period(4)

apr 12 2,037 2,078 2,198 2,297 41 2,537 319 2,351 2,288 2,317 2,317 81.3 0.76 1.70 101.9 - 1,031 19.5%

may 12 2,000 2,041 2,160 2,264 41 2,535 318 2,347 2,290 2,338 2,295 79.7 0.78 1.74 101.0 - 1,118 8.4%

Jun 12 1,885 1,924 2,041 2,145 40 2,477 315 2,309 2,238 2,281 2,255 79.3 0.80 1.69 96.0 - 937 -16.1%

Jul 12 1,875 1,906 2,014 2,114 31 2,445 309 2,274 2,193 2,221 2,182 79.0 0.81 1.74 95.9 - 1,059 13.0%

aug 12 1,838 1,872 1,979 2,078 34 2,421 317 2,259 2,197 2,225 2,200 78.7 0.81 1.70 94.4 - 752 -29.0%

sep 12 2,054 2,068 2,174 2,270 14 2,460 321 2,277 2,210 2,239 2,236 78.2 0.78 1.81 104.4 180.1 718 -4.6%

oct 12 1,975 2,003 2,095 2,186 28 2,452 324 2,302 2,214 2,288 2,114 79.0 0.77 1.74 100.8 175.9 965 34.4%

nov 12 1,943 1,962 2,060 2,150 18 2,438 325 2,282 2,206 2,257 2,212 81.0 0.78 1.74 99.3 177.1 1,028 6.5%

Dec 12 2,087 2,098 2,195 2,286 12 2,424 329 2,268 2,183 2,271 2,208 83.9 0.76 1.81 105.6 194.6 787 -23.4%

Jan 13 2,035 2,073 2,126 2,202 37 2,417 333 2,270 2,172 2,318 2,212 89.1 0.75 1.75 103.7 202.7 775 -1.5%

Feb 13 2,053 2,095 2,134 2,208 42 2,375 350 2,246 2,125 2,227 2,141 93.1 0.75 1.76 104.8 213.8 748 -3.5%

mar 13 1,913 1,953 2,014 2,093 40 2,345 342 2,212 2,100 2,248 2,073 94.9 0.77 1.70 98.5 204.6 868 16.1%

apr 13 1,857 1,889 1,988 2,073 33 2,348 326 2,209 2,112 2,159 2,141 97.7 0.77 1.64 96.0 205.5 874 0.7%

may 13 1,831 1,863 1,966 2,050 32 2,374 329 2,195 2,118 2,150 2,118 101.0 0.77 1.63 94.7 209.7 848 -3.0%

Jun 13 1,816 1,857 1,957 2,042 40 2,386 327 2,227 2,129 2,247 2,176 97.3 0.76 1.59 94.2 200.6 978 15.3%

Jul 13 1,768 1,812 1,908 1,992 44 2,342 320 2,194 2,145 2,165 2,174 99.6 0.76 1.56 92.1 201.0 1,117 14.3%

aug 13 1,816 1,864 1,979 2,077 48 2,343 319 2,191 2,134 2,179 2,167 97.8 0.75 1.56 93.9 202.0 1,093 -2.1%

sep 13 1,760 1,808 1,936 2,044 47 2,342 314 2,192 2,135 2,164 2,138 99.2 0.75 1.50 90.3 198.9 1,735 58.7%

oct 13 1,812 1,859 1,978 2,073 47 2,375 318 2,212 2,155 2,222 2,163 97.8 0.73 1.51 92.5 201.4 1,910 10.1%

nov 13 1,749 1,795 1,912 2,008 46 2,352 324 2,205 2,159 2,214 2,149 100.1 0.74 1.48 89.5 199.8 1,583 -17.1%

Dec 13 1,739 1,785 1,899 1,988 46 2,332 325 2,192 2,091 2,196 2,143 103.6 0.73 1.47 89.9 205.6 2,207 39.4%

Jan 14 1,726 1,771 1,884 1,964 45 2,274 335 2,163 2,039 2,204 2,102 103.9 0.73 1.50 95.2 207.7 1,465 -33.6%

Feb 14 1,694 1,737 1,847 1,918 43 2,180 329 2,074 1,940 2,193 2,070 102.1 0.73 1.50 97.2 204.6 1,158 -21.0%

mar 14 1,704 1,747 1,856 1,925 43 2,084 319 1,966 1,808 1,911 1,922 102.4 0.72 1.49 96.0 211.0 1,498 29.4%

apr 14 1,810 1,847 1,938 2,010 37 2,106 323 - - - - 102.5 0.72 1.58 100.5 223.1 1,028 -31.4%

Q1'12 2,177 2,216 2,333 2,432 38 2,543 317 2,359 2,352 2,297 2,304 79.2 0.76 1.81 106.9 - 853 -55.3%

Q2'12 1,978 2,019 2,136 2,238 40 2,516 317 2,336 2,312 2,272 2,289 80.1 0.78 1.71 99.6 - 1,029 20.6%

Q3'12 1,918 1,945 2,051 2,150 27 2,442 316 2,270 2,229 2,200 2,206 78.6 0.80 1.75 98.2 180.1 843 -18.0%

Q4'12 1,997 2,017 2,112 2,204 20 2,438 326 2,284 2,272 2,201 2,178 81.3 0.77 1.76 101.9 182.5 927 9.9%

Q1'13 2,001 2,041 2,092 2,168 40 2,379 341 2,243 2,264 2,133 2,142 92.4 0.76 1.74 102.3 207.0 797 -14.0%

Q2'13 1,835 1,870 1,971 2,055 35 2,370 327 2,210 2,185 2,120 2,145 98.7 0.77 1.62 94.9 205.3 900 12.9%

Q3'13 1,781 1,828 1,941 2,037 47 2,342 318 2,192 2,169 2,138 2,160 98.9 0.75 1.54 92.1 200.6 1,315 46.2%

Q4'13 1,769 1,815 1,932 2,025 46 2,353 323 2,203 2,211 2,135 2,152 100.5 0.73 1.49 90.6 202.3 1,900 44.5%

Q1'14 1,708 1,752 1,863 1,937 44 2,179 328 2,067 2,103 1,929 2,031 102.8 0.73 1.50 96.1 207.7 1,374 -27.7%

2011 2,395 2,420 2,501 2,568 24 2,605 374 2,418 2,398 2,368 2,377 79.7 0.72 1.86 116.7 200.9 3,143 5.7%

2012 2,018 2,050 2,159 2,256 31 2,485 356 2,312 2,291 2,243 2,244 79.8 0.78 1.76 101.7 175.0 3,048 -3.0%

2013 1,844 1,886 1,982 2,070 42 2,361 334 2,212 2,207 2,131 2,150 97.6 0.75 1.60 95.00 203.80 2,756 0.0%

Metal Bulletin Research Global Aluminium Prices, Premiums & Freight

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, LME, Baltic Exchange

Notes: (1) Term "d/p" represents duty-paid, "d/u" represents duty-unpaid, "MW" is midwest, "EU" is delivered European port. (2) Euro premium is indicator for min. 99.7% western ingot delivered in warehouse Rotterdam. (3) US premium indicator is for P1020 midwest western material. (4) Change from preceeding period (i.e. month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter, etc)

Transaction Prices FreightCurrencyChinese Transaction PricesLME Prices

Global Aluminium Premiums2011 2012 2013 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 09-May-14

Europe ($/tonne)rotterdam spot DP 193 241 272 281 261 255 341 243 253 271 314 355 355 370 380 rotterdam 3-month DP 197 243 272 281 261 255 341 243 252 271 314 355 355 370 380 rotterdam spot Du 124 176 206 210 202 196 286 186 191 212 262 299 298 313 325 Europe (€/tonne)rotterdam spot DP 139 188 205 215 197 188 249 178 187 198 230 260 257 268 276 rotterdam 3-month DP 142 189 205 215 197 187 249 178 187 198 230 260 257 268 276 rotterdam spot Du 89 137 155 160 153 144 209 136 141 155 193 219 215 227 236 USA ($/tonne)us midwest (c/lb) 7.9 10.1 11.3 11.7 11.3 10.5 18.7 10.3 10.2 11.1 16.9 20.3 18.7 18.4 18.6 us midwest ($/tonne) 175 223 249 258 250 231 411 226 224 244 372 448 413 406 410 Detroit spot - 55 184 206 178 167 199 155 158 187 197 200 200 200 200 beltimore spot - 134 194 211 195 187 194 185 185 190 193 193 197 200 200 chicago spot - 133 188 192 195 186 194 185 185 189 193 193 197 200 200 new orleans spot - 126 189 192 202 186 193 185 185 189 193 193 194 200 200 Brazil ($/tonne)brazil spot Du - - - - - - - - - - 543 624 624 608 575 Asia ($/tonne)Japanese Du quarterly 116 179 247 249 250 246 256 246 246 246 256 256 256 367 367 Japanese spot Du - 109 246 246 248 246 314 246 247 246 273 310 358 368 368 shanghai spot - 168 238 230 246 249 293 248 238 259 272 285 323 351 363 singapore spot 87 146 182 180 186 185 221 185 185 185 200 219 244 288 290 Gwangyang (Korea) spot - 181 234 234 230 234 300 226 228 249 268 291 340 344 344 Johor (malaysia) spot - 137 182 180 186 185 222 185 185 185 200 226 240 277 288 Billet premium ($/tonne)europe 430 418 489 488 490 498 598 495 498 502 533 594 668 685 695 us midwest 11.5 12.5 12.1 12.4 11.8 12.0 12.6 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.4 13.6 source: metal bulletin

note: 1. DP: duty paid; 2. Du: duty unpaid; 3. cis premium has been discontinued since november 2013

MARkeT analysis

Metal Bulletin Research Global Aluminium Prices, Premiums & Freight data is only available to

paying subscribers.


department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 7999

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6 MARkeT analysisMetal Bulletin Research Aluminium Financing Deal Profitability Analysis (1) Date: 09-May-14

1W ago 1M ago 3M ago 6M ago 12M ago

cash 1,7183m rolling 1,762 cash/3m 3m -44 c 8.08% 7.91% 4.72% 8.29% 8.14% 3.85%

Jun 14 1,737 cash / Jun14 -19 c cash/1m 1M -19 c 8.05% 7.86% 6.01% 8.32% 7.90% 7.08%Jul 14 1,751 Jun14 / Jul14 -14 c cash/2m 2M -33 c 8.16% 8.09% 5.44% 8.39% 8.15% 3.28%aug 14 1,765 Jul14 / aug14 -15 c cash/3m 3M -47 c 7.67% 7.46% 4.80% 8.22% 7.93% 4.15%sep 14 1,776 aug14 / sep14 -11 c cash/4m 4M -58 c 7.25% 7.04% 4.67% 8.08% 7.73% 4.58%oct 14 1,786 sep14 / oct14 -10 c cash/5m 5M -68 c 6.89% 6.68% 4.34% 7.78% 7.25% 4.08%nov 14 1,798 oct14 / nov14 -12 c cash/6m 6M -80 c 6.46% 6.20% 3.88% 7.33% 6.79% 4.11%Dec 14 1,806 nov14 / Dec14 -8 c cash/7m 7M -88 c 6.05% 5.79% 3.49% 6.98% 6.41% 4.09%Jan 15 1,811 Dec14 / Jan15 -5 c cash/8m 8M -93 c 5.22% 4.97% 3.21% 6.67% 6.06% 3.38%Feb 15 1,818 Jan15 / Feb15 -7 c cash/9m 9M -100 c 4.94% 4.71% 2.76% 6.23% 5.67% 3.24%mar 15 1,825 Feb15 / mar15 -7 c cash/10m 10M -107 c 4.70% 4.48% 2.49% 5.85% 5.40% 3.14%apr 15 1,832 mar15 / apr15 -7 c cash/11m 11M -114 c 4.45% 4.22% 2.33% 5.34% 5.16% 3.01%may 15 1,840 apr15 / may15 -9 c cash/12m 12M -122 c 4.20% 3.96% 2.22% 5.04% 4.90% 2.90%Jun 15 1,847 may15 / Jun15 -7 c cash/13m 13M -129 c 4.00% 3.76% 2.12% 4.80% 4.73% 2.82%Jul 15 1,853 Jun15 / Jul15 -7 c cash/14m 14M -135 c 3.83% 3.59% 2.01% 4.59% 4.46% 2.74%aug 15 1,861 Jul15 / aug15 -8 c cash/15m 15M -143 c 3.64% 3.39% 1.89% 4.35% 4.30% 2.65%sep 15 1,868 aug15 / sep15 -7 c cash/16m 16M -150 c 3.49% 3.24% 1.79% 4.17% 4.15% 2.57%oct 15 1,876 sep15 / oct15 -8 c cash/17m 17M -158 c 3.32% 3.08% 1.68% 3.96% 4.02% 2.49%nov 15 1,882 oct15 / nov15 -6 c cash/18m 18M -164 c 3.18% 2.96% 1.59% 3.73% 3.87% 2.35%Dec 15 1,888 nov15 / Dec15 -6 c cash/19m 19M -170 c 3.06% 2.85% 1.51% 3.56% 3.75% 2.28%Jan 16 1,894 Dec15 / Jan16 -6 c cash/20m 20M -176 c 2.85% 2.64% 1.42% 3.37% 3.64% 2.16%Feb 16 1,900 Jan16 / Feb16 -6 c cash/21m 21M -182 c 2.72% 2.51% 1.31% 3.22% 3.51% 2.13%mar 16 1,905 Feb16 / mar16 -6 c cash/22m 22M -187 c 2.61% 2.38% 1.22% 3.07% 3.41% 2.09%apr 16 1,913 mar16 / apr16 -7 c cash/23m 23M -195 c 2.48% 2.25% 1.13% 2.93% 3.30% 2.05%may 16 1,918 apr16 / may16 -6 c cash/24m 24M -200 c 2.37% 2.13% 1.02% 2.81% 3.20% 2.00%Jun 16 1,924 may16 / Jun16 -6 c cash/25m 25M -206 c 2.25% 2.01% 0.92% 2.68% 3.10% 1.96%Jul 16 1,931 Jun16 / Jul16 -7 c cash/26m 26M -213 c 2.12% 1.89% 0.82% 2.53% 2.98% 1.91%aug 16 1,937 Jul16 / aug16 -6 c cash/27m 27M -219 c 2.00% 1.77% 0.72% 2.41% 2.88% 1.86%sep 16 1,945 aug16 / sep16 -8 c cash/28m 28M -227 c 1.89% 1.65% 0.63% 2.28% 2.79% 1.82%oct 16 1,950 sep16 / oct16 -6 c cash/29m 29M -232 c 1.78% 1.54% 0.53% 2.17% 2.68% 1.76%nov 16 1,956 oct16 / nov16 -6 c cash/30m 30M -238 c 1.67% 1.43% 0.44% 2.06% 2.59% 1.72%Dec 16 1,963 nov16 / Dec16 -7 c cash/31m 31M -245 c 1.56% 1.31% 0.35% 1.94% 2.49% 1.67%Jan 17 1,970 Dec16 / Jan17 -7 c cash/32m 32M -252 c 1.48% 1.21% 0.26% 1.84% 2.39% 1.62%Feb 17 1,976 Jan17 / Feb17 -7 c cash/33m 33M -258 c 1.39% 1.13% 0.16% 1.73% 2.30% 1.57%mar 17 1,982 Feb17 / mar17 -6 c cash/34m 34M -264 c 1.29% 1.04% 0.05% 1.63% 2.21% 1.53%apr 17 1,989 mar17 / apr17 -7 c cash/35m 35M -271 c 1.19% 0.93% -0.04% 1.54% 2.13% 1.48%may 17 1,994 apr17 / may17 -6 c cash/36m 36M -276 c 1.09% 0.84% -0.13% 1.46% 2.04% 1.44%

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, LME, BBA Libor

Notes: (1). All aluminium forward spreads are based on the LME closing prices (Provisional Futures Evening Evaluations). Beside 3M rolling contract the calculations of the costs consider an exact number of days between cash price and the date of expiration of future contract (usually third Wednesday of the month). Cost calculations include storage charge of 7¢ per tonne per day. The costs of borrowing are estimated using USD LIBOR rates up to 12 months and adjusted USD swaps thereafter as well as average risk premium for A-rated US financial institutions (Proxy for Risk Free Rate (Libor/adjusted USD Swaps) + A risk premium).

Annualized continuously compounded rate of return over (Libor + risk premium)

Historic comparisonsToday

Forward date

LME forward prices ($/t)

m-o-m LME forward spread ($/t)

Financing deal dates & duration

LME forward spread ($/t)

Metal Bulletin Research Aluminium Financing

Deal Profitability Analysis data is only available to paying

subscribers.

To subscribe, or for a preview of our data,

please contact our sales department on:

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SOURCE: MBR, LME

Indexed base metal forward curves

SOURCE: MBR, LME

Base metal financing returns

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

Cash 3M 6M 9M 12M 15M 18M 21M

(Cas

h pr

ice=

100)

Aluminium CopperLead NickelTin Zinc

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M11M12M

Aluminium ZincLead CopperNickel Tin


7TeCHNICAL analysis

MBR Outlook While underlying technical studies continue to improve with completed basing patterns capable of supporting higher targets in the weeks and months ahead, shorter term trends are down with serious corrective action currently being experienced. Expect support in the 1750/60 area to come under further serious examination in the coming sessions although only a clear and sustained break beneath here would trigger deeper near term falls and set up a return to the 1700/10 zone prior to better demand being uncovered. Local resistance waits now at 1840/50 which needs to be regained to confirm a retest of 1900/10.

Resistances: short term: 1840/50 Long term: 1900/10

supports:short term: 1750/60 Long term: 1700/10

RECENT GAINS ARE CORRECTED ONCE MORE

PRIMARY ALuMINIuM


8 DeMAND analysis

source: mb

source: mbr, antaike

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

Sep12

Nov12

Jan13

Mar13

May13

Jul13

Sep13

Nov13

Jan14

Mar14

(000

tonn

es)

China aluminium production

Chinese primary aluminium import[RHS]

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


($/t

)

Shanghai premium

China aluminium production & imports

shanghai premium

Aluminium cables continue to make inroads in China…In 2013 production of power cable in China increased by 4.8% to 42m km. This number includes output of copper cable and aluminium alloy and/or composite cables. Production of steel core aluminium cable (ACSR – aluminium conductor steel reinforced), which is one of the main types of aluminium cable is use, however outpaced the production of copper cable, increasing by 6.1% during the year to 3.97m tonnes (steel content ranges from 10-40%). But by the end of 2013, the differential was even starker; in December total power cable output declined by 3.7% y-o-y, while ACSR output was up by 4.2% to 324kt. ACSR cable tends to be used for overhead conductor cables as it combines the light weight and good conductivity of aluminium with the high tensile strength and durability of steel. It can therefore be used over longer span lengths than more aluminium intensive cables, and copper cables for that matter. …but overcapacity is becoming an issue and rationalisation is neededThe strength of demand growth in this sector in recent years, boosted by the massive electrification projects of rural China, has lead to a huge amount of investment in the aluminium power cable sector, which is now showing clear evidence of overcapacity. While demand is still reported as “robust”, production of all cable types slumped in early 2014 as cable manufacturers pulled back utilisation rates to better reflect market dynamics and recalibrate between supply and demand. Total power cable output declined by 1.4% yoy in Q1, while ASCR output fell even more sharply, by 1.9% to 999kt. But these recent developments are not deterring further investment, particularly in aluminium alloy based cables, and March output of steel core aluminium cable actually reached a new all time high of 418kt. Total aluminium alloy cable usage in China is still estimated at little more than 10% of the total market, compared with around 50% in North America and slightly higher in Europe, and given the price differential between copper and aluminium the switch into aluminium cabling in China is expected to keep gathering pace.

MBR Outlook Although China imports very limited tonnages of primary aluminium (Q1 imports totalled 153.3kt), and there is already a surplus of domestically produced material in the country, premiums payable on this imported material have risen just as they have in other regions in recent months. Shanghai premiums peaked at $370/tonne in late April, and while this value still holds true for some offers, actual deals are more likely to be settled at closer to $355/tonne. In reality though, interest in imported aluminium is very thin on the ground, with most material destined for Asia being targeted at Japan where Q2 MJP premiums were settled at $365/tonne for good solid volumes, rather than at China. In fact it is more likely that we will see rising exports of Chinese material, at least material that is sitting in bonded warehouses in Shanghai, to take advantage of this demand. But export tonnages will still be very limited; over Q1 the country exported just 23.5kt of primary metal. There is of course over 400kt of aluminium sitting in SHFE warehouses, but due to the current export tariff regime this material is effectively ring fenced from export markets.

• Shanghai premiums on imported material drop to $355/tonne…• …but import interest is very limited• Chinese aluminium cable output down in Q1, but outlook still bright


9DeMAND analysis


9DeMAND analysis

Global Primary Aluminium Consumption estimates and Forecasts ('000 tonnes)Global %

Afr N.Am L.Am Asia W.Eur Aus Total China CIS E.Eur Total Global Ch. y-on-y

Quarterly ('000t)

Q1'10 158 1,172 388 1,916 1,566 97 5,297 3,808 210 231 4,249 9,545 20.5%

Q2'10 165 1,240 394 1,995 1,671 104 5,569 4,087 220 246 4,553 10,122 21.3%

Q3'10 178 1,167 399 1,924 1,586 99 5,353 4,136 211 234 4,581 9,934 13.1%

Q4'10 194 1,245 415 2,114 1,703 106 5,778 4,383 229 251 4,862 10,640 14.4%

Q1'11 160 1,227 438 2,020 1,668 96 5,609 4,322 223 239 4,784 10,393 8.9%

Q2'11 167 1,297 445 2,104 1,780 103 5,896 4,639 234 255 5,128 11,023 8.9%

Q3'11 180 1,222 451 2,028 1,689 98 5,668 4,695 225 242 5,161 10,829 9.0%

Q4'11 196 1,302 469 2,230 1,814 105 6,116 4,974 243 260 5,477 11,594 9.0%

Q1'12 168 1,298 463 2,120 1,538 97 5,684 4,724 228 247 5,199 10,883 4.7%

Q2'12 176 1,373 470 2,208 1,640 104 5,971 5,070 239 263 5,573 11,544 4.7%

Q3'12 189 1,293 476 2,129 1,557 99 5,743 5,131 230 250 5,611 11,354 4.8%

Q4'12 206 1,378 495 2,340 1,672 106 6,199 5,437 249 268 5,954 12,153 4.8%

Q1'13 176 1,369 496 2,224 1,557 98 5,921 5,149 233 254 5,637 11,557 6.2%

Q2'13 185 1,448 504 2,317 1,661 104 6,219 5,527 245 271 6,043 12,262 6.2%

Q3'13 199 1,363 510 2,234 1,577 100 5,983 5,593 235 257 6,086 12,068 6.3%

Q4'13 217 1,453 531 2,455 1,693 107 6,457 5,926 255 276 6,457 12,914 6.3%

Q1'14f 186 1,444 534 2,336 1,575 98 6,171 5,613 239 260 6,112 12,283 6.3%

Q2'14f 195 1,527 542 2,433 1,680 105 6,481 6,024 250 278 6,552 13,033 6.3%

Q3'14f 209 1,438 549 2,345 1,594 100 6,236 6,097 241 264 6,601 12,836 6.4%

Q4'14f 228 1,533 571 2,578 1,712 108 6,730 6,460 260 283 7,003 13,733 6.3%

Annual ('000t)

2005 380 7,567 1,276 6,780 6,717 451 23,171 7,091 964 783 8,839 32,009 5.0%

% change 04-05 3.8% 0.9% 4.6% 2.0% 1.7% 3.4% 1.8% 16.5% 6.1% 10.9% 14.8%

2006 409 7,653 1,395 6,960 7,055 374 23,847 8,580 1,040 879 10,499 34,346 7.3%

% change 05-06 7.8% 1.1% 9.4% 2.7% 5.0% -17.1% 2.9% 21.0% 7.9% 12.2% 18.8%

2007 425 7,526 1,468 7,108 7,244 396 24,167 11,497 1,021 877 13,396 37,563 9.4%

% change 06-07 3.8% -1.7% 5.2% 2.1% 2.7% 5.7% 1.3% 34.0% -1.8% -0.1% 27.6%

2008 632 5,913 1,623 7,286 6,856 400 22,711 12,934 1,082 873 14,889 37,600 0.1%

% change 07-08 2.1% -8.1% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% -2.0% 12.5% 2.0% 2.0% 11.0%

2009 700 4,422 1,536 6,780 5,059 399 18,897 13,951 829 670 15,451 34,348 -8.6%

% change 08-09 10.8% -25.2% -5.4% -6.9% -26.2% -0.2% -16.8% 7.9% -23.4% -23.2% 3.8%

2010 695 4,824 1,597 7,948 6,525 406 21,996 16,414 870 961 18,246 40,242 17.2%

% change 09-10 -0.8% 9.1% 4.0% 17.2% 29.0% 1.7% 16.4% 17.7% 4.9% 43.4% 18.1%

2011 703 5,048 1,802 8,382 6,952 402 23,288 18,630 925 995 20,550 43,839 8.9%

% change 10-11 1.2% 4.6% 12.9% 5.5% 6.5% -1.0% 5.9% 13.5% 6.2% 3.5% 12.6%

2012 739 5,343 1,905 8,797 6,408 406 23,597 20,363 946 1,028 22,337 45,934 4.8%

% change 11-12 5.1% 5.8% 5.7% 5.0% -7.8% 1.0% 1.3% 9.3% 2.3% 3.3% 8.7%

2013 777 5,633 2,041 9,230 6,488 409 24,579 22,196 968 1,059 24,223 48,801 6.2%

% change 12-13 5.2% 5.4% 7.1% 4.9% 1.3% 0.7% 4.2% 9.0% 2.3% 3.0% 8.4%

2014f 817 5,940 2,196 9,692 6,561 411 25,617 24,193 990 1,085 26,268 51,885 6.3%

% change 13-14 5.1% 5.5% 7.6% 5.0% 1.1% 0.6% 4.2% 9.0% 2.3% 2.4% 8.4%

Western World Non-Western World

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, WBMS

2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14USA shipmentssheet and plate 3,396 3,515 3,627 3,615 930 917 873 883 299 316 285 272 299 272 311 Foil 480 481 453 450 123 119 95 - 37 37 34 24 36 37 - extruded products 1,532 1,703 1,859 1,903 491 497 447 495 160 176 151 120 166 153 176 total 5,407 5,699 5,939 5,967 1,544 1,534 1,415 - 496 529 470 416 501 462 -German productionrolled products 1,877 1,835 1,854 1,933 499 486 467 - 161 172 166 130 154 148 - extruded products 574 603 552 556 147 146 127 - 49 51 47 29 47 48 - total 2,452 2,438 2,407 2,489 646 632 594 - 210 223 212 159 201 196 - Japanese productionsheet and plate 1,281 1,195 1,167 - 292 285 296 - 99 101 100 94 84 90 -Foil 122 118 95 - 26 26 28 - 9 10 9 8 8 9 -extruded products 777 794 812 - 198 204 220 - 69 76 73 71 69 68 -total 9,717 6,245 4,814 - 885 520 516 - 176 187 182 174 161 167 -Chinese production and tradesemis imports 591 569 507 482 120 127 119 113 42 39 40 39 46 31 36 semis exports 2,189 2,947 2,708 3,065 820 813 768 719 267 264 268 235 268 136 315 semis production 19,998 23,805 30,621 39,430 10,100 10,350 11,089 9,647 3,636 3,619 3,792 3,679 3,056 2,761 3,830 apparent internal semis demand 18,399 21,427 28,420 36,846 9,399 9,665 10,440 9,041 3,412 3,393 3,564 3,483 2,834 2,656 3,551 Source: Metal Bulletin Research, Aluminum Association, CNIA, China Customs,

semi-Fabricated Aluminium Production and trade ('000 tonnes)

Semi-Fabricated Aluminium Production and Trade data is only available to paying subscribers.

To subscribe, or for a preview of our data, please contact our sales department on:

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Global Primary Aluminium Consumption Estimates and

Forecasts data is only available to paying subscribers.


department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 7999


10 suPPLY analysis

source: mbr

source: mbr, aa

12.0

12.2

12.4

12.6

12.8

13.0

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.8

14.0

14.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14

('000

tpd)

(mtp

y)

Annual rate [LHS]Daily rate [RHS]

286 290

228241

260 249 250

145

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f

(000

tonn

es)

North American aluminium production

Romanian aluminium production & forecast

Hydro permanently shuts Kurri Kurri smelterFollowing the May 2012 announcement to temporarily cut production at the Kurri Kurri smelter in Australia, Hydro has this week decided to permanently shut the facility (commissioned in 1969). Located in New South Wales, thesmelter had three pot-lines with nameplate capacity of 180 ktpy. In May 2012, Hydro decided to cut production due to significant cash losses at the plant, as a result of low metal prices and the strong Australian dollar which made Australian primary material relatively uncompetitive on the international market. The latest decision highlights Hydro’s enduring pessimism regarding a poential rejuvenation in metal prices and/or a significant weakening in the Australian dollar - the two drivers of the smelter’s unprofitability - but also the company’s commitment to lower their primary production costs by $300/tonne relative to 2011 (as mentioned last week, the company has in fact reduced cost by $375/tonne). The 45-year old smelter was one of Hydro’s most inefficient production units, consuming 16.2 MWh of power to produce one tonne of aluminium, whereas the more-modern Portland plant requires 13.5 MWh, and the most efficient smelters in the world operate below the 13.0 MWh level. Alro decreases revenue forecast based on lower primary pricesThe Romanian aluminium smelter Alro, the largest in the Central and Eastern European region (excluding the CIS), has reduced its sales revenue forecast this week by 6%, from $642m to $605m. It has cited the declining price of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange as the primary reason for the downward adjustment. Alro has relatively high production costs, particularly their power input costs. This is partly due to the high cost of green energy certificates that they have to pay for (as a result of Romanian government regulations on high power consumption industries). In the March 10 2014 issue, MBR reported that Alro was preparing to close a large part of its 265ktpy smelting capacity, as the company struggled to meet its energy costs. The company didn’t specify how much capacity would be cut, but from the company’s forecast of sales volumes this year (which are 145,000 tonnes) we can estimate that about 120 ktpy of capacity is likely to be closed. Alro produced 250,000 tonnes last year.

MBR Outlook There was another major contraction in North American primary aluminium production in April, driven largely by a sharp decline in US production, which declined by 14.5% during the month, due to the impact of a permanent closure at two potlines at Massena, which were completed in Q1. The decrease is the largest since February 2010, and highlights the ongoing impact of the weak primary aluminium prices on domestic US production, which has seen consecutive y-o-y declines since August 2012. There was a surge in net imports in Q1 of this year, however, of 7.9%, which compensated for almost all of the reduction in output (apparent consumption in the USA decline only 0.6% in Q1 2014). The increasing penetration of imports highlights the increased competitiveness of foreign suppliers, relative to their rivals in the USA.

• US aluminium output down by 14.5% y-o-y in April• Kurri Kurri smelter will be permanently closed• The Romanian producer Alro decreased revenue forecast


11suPPLY analysis


11suPPLY analysis

AfricaNorth America

Latin America

Asia (ex. China)

Western Europe

Eastern/Central Europe

Oceania ChinaMiddle East

Global Ch. y-on-y

Quarterly ('000t)

Q1 08 428 1,465 653 555 1,165 1,276 575 3,177 452 9,746 5.0%

Q2 08 416 1,464 663 555 1,127 1,272 575 3,219 491 9,782 3.4%

Q3 08 424 1,444 676 587 1,112 1,293 576 3,400 490 10,002 4.0%

Q4 08 431 1,410 668 603 1,100 1,301 570 3,279 473 9,836 1.1%

Q1 09 404 1,256 634 640 984 1,136 541 2,952 527 9,074 -6.9%

Q2 09 416 1,179 625 660 884 1,073 549 3,071 544 9,002 -8.0%

Q3 09 430 1,152 627 662 888 1,081 557 3,662 564 9,623 -3.8%

Q4 09 436 1,172 622 674 878 1,110 564 3,759 566 9,780 -0.6%

Q1 10 424 1,164 568 669 882 1,083 555 3,997 654 9,995 10.2%

Q2 10 430 1,179 573 645 940 1,135 565 3,987 681 10,135 12.6%

Q3 10 442 1,158 583 664 963 1,152 578 4,074 708 10,321 7.2%

Q4 10 446 1,186 582 714 988 1,163 578 4,073 754 10,483 7.2%

Q1 11 433 1,189 556 712 976 1,170 564 4,450 825 10,874 8.8%

Q2 11 447 1,241 557 715 996 1,176 576 4,499 841 11,049 9.0%

Q3 11 457 1,262 570 717 1,010 1,194 581 4,549 859 11,198 8.5%

Q4 11 463 1,277 557 733 990 1,203 585 4,549 850 11,206 6.9%

Q1 12 402 1,191 522 743 922 1,176 570 5,245 931 11,704 7.6%

Q2 12 381 1,203 513 754 908 1,183 564 5,267 934 11,709 6.0%

Q3 12 418 1,202 509 770 905 1,187 550 5,347 935 11,823 5.6%

Q4 12 441 1,246 511 765 880 1,172 539 5,341 938 11,833 5.6%

Q1 13 439 1,241 488 674 877 1,109 521 6,004 973 12,327 5.3%

Q2 13 448 1,260 479 709 892 1,116 521 6,018 979 12,421 6.1%

Q3 13 460 1,237 481 733 908 1,113 532 6,085 981 12,530 6.0%

Q4 13 460 1,192 463 733 905 1,111 531 6,185 977 12,558 6.1%

Q1 14 446 1,115 444 849 907 964 493 6,458 1,094 12,770 3.6%

Q2 14f 448 1,100 434 872 915 973 476 6,525 1,098 12,843 3.4%

Q3 14f 471 1,107 420 929 923 982 479 6,593 1,202 13,106 4.6%

Q4 14f 471 1,109 420 953 923 982 479 6,593 1,202 13,132 4.6%

Q1 15f 463 1,113 441 1,037 914 989 473 6,775 1,249 13,453 5.3%

Q2 15f 466 1,161 446 1,042 923 998 476 6,845 1,257 13,613 6.0%

Q3 15f 470 1,187 446 1,080 930 1,007 479 6,914 1,264 13,779 5.1%

Q4 15f 470 1,187 446 1,081 930 1,007 479 6,914 1,264 13,779 4.9%

Annual ('000t)

2008 1,699 5,783 2,660 2,301 4,504 5,141 2,296 13,076 1,907 39,365 3.3%

y-o-y % -6.4% 3.2% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% -0.8% 3.7% 9.5%

2009 1,686 4,759 2,508 2,636 3,635 4,400 2,211 13,444 2,200 37,479 -4.8%

y-o-y % -0.8% -17.7% -5.7% 14.6% -19.3% -14.4% -3.7% 2.8% 15.4%

2010 1,742 4,687 2,306 2,691 3,772 4,532 2,276 16,132 2,796 40,933 9.2%

y-o-y % 3.3% -1.5% -8.1% 2.1% 3.8% 3.0% 2.9% 20.0% 27.1%

2011 1,800 4,969 2,240 2,876 3,972 4,744 2,306 18,047 3,374 44,328 8.3%

y-o-y % 3.3% 6.0% -2.9% 6.9% 5.3% 4.7% 1.3% 11.9% 20.7%

2012 1,643 4,841 2,055 3,034 3,615 4,719 2,224 21,200 3,738 47,068 6.2%

y-o-y % -8.7% -2.6% -8.3% 5.5% -9.0% -0.5% -3.6% 17.5% 10.8%

2013 1,808 4,930 1,911 2,848 3,583 4,450 2,105 24,292 3,911 49,837 5.9%

y-o-y % 10.0% 1.8% -7.0% -6.1% -0.9% -5.7% -5.4% 14.6% 4.6%

2014f 1,836 4,430 1,718 3,604 3,669 3,901 1,928 26,169 4,597 51,851 4.0%

y-o-y % 1.6% -10.1% -10.1% 26.5% 2.4% -12.3% -8.4% 7.7% 17.5%

2015f 1,869 4,648 1,779 4,239 3,697 4,001 1,908 27,449 5,034 54,624 5.3%

y-o-y % 1.8% 4.9% 3.6% 17.6% 0.7% 2.6% -1.0% 4.9% 9.5%

Global Primary Aluminium Production estimates and Forecasts ('000 tonnes)

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, IAI

Global Primary Aluminium Production Estimates and Forecasts

data is only available to paying subscribers.


department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 7999

12

MBR ALUMINIUM WEEKLY marKet tracKer march 2014 www.metalbulletinresearch.com

ReCYCLeD ALuMINIuM AND sCRAP analysis

MBR Outlook European secondary aluminium ingot prices fell last Friday (May 9), after primary aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange gave up their April gains in the last two weeks. DIN 226 pressure diecasting ingot fell to €1,670-1,730/tonne ($2,322-2,405/tonne) from €1,680-1,740/tonne previously, as three-month aluminium dropped to $1,760/tonne on the LME, from more than $1,880/tonne two weeks ago. The effect on prices would have been worse were it not for the strength of sterling keeping UK producers from exporting to Europe. Scrap prices were stable last Friday. Should LME prices stay at current levels for the next week then a similar reduction to that seen in ingot prices can be expected in appear in scrap prices too. But scrap prices could prove more robust due to supply tightness, whereas the ingot market in Europe is oversupplied. One reason of the tightness in scrap is Novelis aggressively seeking feedstock for its recycling centre in Nachterstedt, Germany. The facility will be the largest recycling centre in the world and is due to open in the summer.

EUROPEAN SECONDARY ALUMINIUM INGOT PRICES DROP

12


reCYCLeD ALuMINIuM AND sCrAP analysis

MBR Outlook European secondary aluminium ingot prices fell last Friday (May 9), after primary aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange gave up their April gains in the last two weeks. DIN 226 pressure diecasting ingot fell to €1,670-1,730/tonne ($2,322-2,405/tonne) from €1,680-1,740/tonne previously, as three-month aluminium dropped to $1,760/tonne on the LME, from more than $1,880/tonne two weeks ago. The effect on prices would have been worse were it not for the strength of sterling keeping UK producers from exporting to Europe. Scrap prices were stable last Friday. Should LME prices stay at current levels for the next week then a similar reduction to that seen in ingot prices can be expected in appear in scrap prices too. But scrap prices could prove more robust due to supply tightness, whereas the ingot market in Europe is oversupplied. One reason of the tightness in scrap is Novelis aggressively seeking feedstock for its recycling centre in Nachterstedt, Germany. The facility will be the largest recycling centre in the world and is due to open in the summer.

EUROPEAN SECONDARY ALUMINIUM INGOT PRICES DROPPrices of Scrap and Secondary/Recycled Ingots (1)

General european (€/tonne) 2011 2012 2013 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14Din226/a380 ingot 1,873 1,770 1,776 1,753 1,826 1,771 1,725 1,799 1,763 1,750 1,742 1,718 1,715Floated Frag 1,372 1,379 1,353 1,385 1,325 1,318 1,289 1,325 1,325 1,305 1,305 1,288 1,275cast 1,273 1,295 1,272 1,293 1,250 1,243 1,202 1,250 1,250 1,230 1,224 1,198 1,185mixed turnings 6% 1,158 1,170 1,218 1,248 1,210 1,187 1,126 1,200 1,190 1,170 1,167 1,131 1,080italy (€/tonne)Pure cuttings 1,431 1,361 1,306 1,332 1,283 1,256 1,208 1,269 1,262 1,238 1,230 1,213 1,183old mixed scrap 1,252 1,276 1,227 1,249 1,219 1,208 1,164 1,219 1,209 1,195 1,187 1,169 1,138commercial cast 1,263 1,278 1,219 1,239 1,210 1,198 1,148 1,209 1,203 1,183 1,175 1,158 1,113France (€/tonne)commercial cast 996 988 962 962 961 944 895 942 940 949 928 888 870Pure cuttings 1,535 1,397 1,280 1,290 1,241 1,230 1,178 1,259 1,228 1,203 1,211 1,159 1,163Germany (€/tonne)Pure cuttings 1,387 1,290 1,256 1,260 1,239 1,245 1,221 1,246 1,248 1,240 1,236 1,220 1,208commercial cast 1,294 1,258 1,229 1,218 1,231 1,238 1,198 1,248 1,245 1,220 1,208 1,196 1,190h9 extrusions 1,697 1,555 1,421 1,423 1,382 1,356 1,327 1,372 1,358 1,338 1,334 1,325 1,323alloy turnings 1,086 1,030 1,043 1,046 1,027 1,023 1,005 1,030 1,030 1,010 1,018 1,010 988uK (£/tonne)lm24 Pressure diecasting ingot 1,638 1,453 1,519 1,535 1,538 1,515 1,471 1,525 1,515 1,505 1,505 1,459 1,450clean 6063/he9 extrusions 1,313 1,144 1,133 1,160 1,121 1,085 1,063 1,095 1,086 1,075 1,075 1,060 1,055commercial cast 1,042 977 1,003 1,034 1,006 959 953 949 953 975 969 945 945usa ($/lb)a-380.1 alloy ingot 1.18 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.06 1.02 1.03 1.02 1.04 1.07 1.08low-copper clips 0.82 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.74 0.71 0.71 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.76old sheet and cast 0.77 0.73 0.72 0.73 0.70 0.69 0.73 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.72 0.74 0.75auto shred (90% aluminium) 0.87 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.83 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.80 0.85 0.84ubc 0.86 0.75 0.74 0.76 0.71 0.69 0.76 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.74 0.77 0.78china ($/tonne)shredded tense (91% - 93%) 2,122 2,081 2,030 2,034 2,034 2,020 1,920 2,018 2,018 2,024 2,012 1,920 1,828shredded tense (al 93-95%) 1,994 2,319 2,274 2,278 2,279 2,266 2,166 2,263 2,264 2,271 2,261 2,166 2,071shredded taint(90-92%) 2,039 1,981 1,916 1,920 1,920 1,904 1,770 1,903 1,903 1,907 1,876 1,772 1,663high grade alu alloy aDc12 2,818 2,763 2,724 2,733 2,730 2,710 2,614 2,706 2,707 2,716 2,707 2,619 2,516standard alu alloy aDc12 2,598 2,557 2,513 2,524 2,517 2,496 2,401 2,493 2,494 2,502 2,492 2,405 2,306aluminium from radiator (85-87%) 1,875 1,798 1,669 1,673 1,671 1,655 1,517 1,651 1,649 1,664 1,628 1,515 1,409import 6061 alu extrusion 1,991 1,963 1,866 1,871 1,871 1,856 1,696 1,856 1,854 1,859 1,810 1,690 1,590Domestic 6063 extrusion scrap 2,091 2,056 1,962 1,968 1,969 1,955 1,799 1,954 1,952 1,958 1,917 1,796 1,683ubc 1,788 1,718 1,636 1,631 1,658 1,641 1,481 1,643 1,641 1,638 1,595 1,476 1,372lme Prices and stocksspot al alloy ingot ($/tonne) 2,263 1,920 1,800 1,789 1,776 1,787 1,803 1,800 1,766 1,794 1,793 1,785 1,830spot nasaac ingot ($/tonne) 2,380 2,000 1,830 1,817 1,830 1,818 1,823 1,843 1,808 1,802 1,794 1,815 1,859al alloy stocks(tonnes) (7) 108,968 105,607 69,010 85,000 77,800 90,320 87,740 61,060 59,660 56,440 55,280 54,780 54,760nasaac stocks(tonnes) (7) 148,508 152,408 116,788 149,280 147,680 147,120 146,700 100,380 88,620 84,860 80,240 77,540 72,820

Production and trade of secondary aluminium ingots and trade in aluminium scrap (6) ('000 tonnes)china (3)

net imports of scrap 2,685 2,591 2,503 560 680 694 - 209 237 248 198 170 198usa (2)

secondary ingot from new scrap 1,637 1,805 1,850 458 472 461 - 171 143 147 154 154 -secondary ingot from old scrap 1,414 1,625 1,632 413 410 399 - 155 121 123 132 132 -secondary ingot Production 3,050 3,430 3,482 871 882 860 - 326 264 270 285 285 -ratio of sec. to Prim. al. Production 4.64 4.45 4.54 1.11 1.15 1.16 - 1.10 1.18 1.20 1.17 1.17 -net exports of scrap 1,504 1,409 1,283 286 316 365 - 125 128 112 94 - -implied scrap Generation 4,555 4,839 4,765 1,157 1,198 1,225 - 451 392 382 380 - -europe and cis (5)

eu 27 secondary ingot Production 1,517 1,515 1,513 536 508 492 - 169 166 158 172 172 -German secondary ingot Production 635 635 597 157 147 134 - 48 46 40 50 50 -German net scrap exports 424 387 371 92 103 92 - 33 38 21 34 43 -German net secondary ingot imports 431 378 183 44 42 49 - 20 18 11 17 18 -French secondary ingot Production 182 181 181 45 45 45 - 15 15 15 15 15 -French net scrap exports 135 158 201 57 39 55 - 22 18 15 23 20 -French net secondary ingot imports 58 42 31 7 9 11 - 6 4 1 6 3 -uK net scrap exports 331 336 289 75 72 77 - 26 26 24 22 23 -uK net secondary ingot imports -69 -61 -7 -7 -3 -2 - 0 -1 -1 0 - -rusisan net secondary ingot exports 288 272 277 77 90 55 - 29 26 - - - -Japan (4)

Production of secondary ingot 760 788 809 198 199 215 - 67 75 72 68 67 67net imports of scrap 60 50 56 13 14 17 - 5 6 6 5 5 5Sources: Metal Bulletin Research, USITIC, AMM, MB, CNIA, China Customs, US Geological Survey, Japan Aluminium Association, ALFED, WBMS, GDA, UK Trade Info, ABAL, Metals Info

secondary, recycled and scrap aluminium prices, production, consumption and trade

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14


ALuMINA & BAuXITe analysis

Chinese bauxite imports fell -59.9% y-o-y in March 2014China’s bauxite imports fell significantly by -59.9% y-o-y in March 2014 to 1.83 million tonnes, due to both the Indonesian bauxite export ban and reduced demand from Chinese alumina refineries. Although we witnessed China increasing imports from Malaysia, Ghana, Brazil and the Dominican Republic as an alternative to Indonesia, the total amount from these four countries cannot offset the slump in deliveries of Indonesian bauxite , which dropped -85.9% y-o-y and -77.6% from February’s level. Total imports from Indonesia in March were 477,386 tonnes, sharply lower than February’s 2.12 million tonnes. Theoretically, import from Indonesia should have been zero in March as two months (from January when the ban was implemented to March) should be enough for the cargo ships to arrive at China and complete the customs clearance. We believe that the reason why Indonesian imports were still showing up in March is because some importers choose to retain the bauxite at ports as their warehouse had reached full storage capacity. Thus, even though the ship might have arrived in February, these companies may have chosen not to complete the customs clearance until March when they had space in the warehouse for this material.

Indonesian imports in March accounted for only 26.1% of total Chinese imports (compared with an average of 67.7% in 2013) as Chinese importers are buying more from alternative sources. Given this backdrop it is not surprising that we saw a 12.1% m-o-m increase in average Chinese bauxite import prices, reaching an all-time-high of $59.49/tonne CIF in March, with imports from Ghana the highest at $84.81/tonne. (We have provided a new table on Page 16 where you can see historical Chinese bauxite import volume & price by country.)

New features of alumina and bauxite sectionIn response to customer requests for more coverage of alumina and bauxite, we are pleased to add a great deal more valuable data and analysis as part of our service.

Key additions to our monthly alumina and bauxite section include:• World metallurgical grade alumina (MGA) supply/demand balance by regions (historical analysis & forecast for next two years)• World metallurgical bauxite supply/demand balance by regions (historical analysis and forecast for next two years)• China monthly alumina output by province• China monthly bauxite/alumina import volume and price by countries

All of our regional supply/demand balance data can be broken down by country. Upon request, you will be able to get our data & analysis on alumina & bauxite supply/demand balance by countries.

SOURCE: MBR, LME

MB Alumina Index Fob Australia ($/t)

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

22.0%

23.0%

280

300

320

340

360

380

400


($/t

onne

)

MB Alumina Index [LHS]

MB Alumina Index as % ofaluminium spot [RHS]

SOURCE: MBR, WBMS

Chinese bauxite imports

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Jun 12 Jan 13 Aug 13 Mar 14

(000

tonn

es)

Others Indonesia Australia

• Chinese bauxite imports in March dropped significantly…• …and are expected to fall further• We have included new alumina & bauxite data in this issue

MBR Outlook The latest Metal Bulletin Australian FOB Alumina Index is reading $321.38/tonne (as of May 09, 2014), slightly down from April’s average of $322.83/tonne, but about $3/tonne higher than March’s average of $318.35/tonne. The ROW aluminium market remains in a position of oversupply, with the Q1 2014 surplus estimated at around 1.35 million tonnes. In Q2, the surplus is expected to increase to 1.49 million tonnes, which should put further downward pressure on alumina price. We believe further increases in aluminium prices would be needed in order to sustain alumina prices at current levels. Meanwhile, the April alumina index price equated to 17.5% of the LME aluminium 3M price, down from 18.2% in March and 18.9% in February.


15


14 ALuMINA & BAuXIte analysis2013 2014 2015Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 f Q3 f Q4 f Q1 f Q2 f Q3 f Q4 f


Productionafrica 574 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0north america 4,738 5,164 5,594 5,088 4,839 1,379 1,395 1,410 1,410 1,255 1,269 1,283 1,283 1,193 1,206 1,220 1,220latin america 14,751 13,747 13,307 13,609 14,152 3,281 3,318 3,354 3,354 3,356 3,393 3,430 3,430 3,489 3,528 3,567 3,567asia (ex. china) 5,413 5,291 5,896 7,624 8,697 1,454 1,470 1,486 1,486 1,880 1,901 1,922 1,922 2,145 2,168 2,192 2,192western europe 4,123 4,128 3,827 3,803 3,816 944 954 965 965 938 948 958 958 941 951 962 962eastern/central europe 5,040 4,758 4,869 4,925 5,015 1,201 1,214 1,227 1,227 1,214 1,228 1,241 1,241 1,237 1,250 1,264 1,264australasia 19,123 20,997 21,257 20,550 20,050 5,241 5,300 5,358 5,358 5,067 5,123 5,180 5,180 4,944 4,999 5,054 5,054china 33,147 38,841 44,134 48,510 51,705 10,882 11,003 11,124 11,124 11,961 12,094 12,227 12,227 12,749 12,891 13,033 13,033middle east 0 0 0 60 1,260 0 0 0 0 15 15 15 15 311 314 318 318Consumptionafrica 3,528 3,220 3,543 3,598 3,664 861 878 902 902 874 879 923 923 907 914 921 921north america 9,739 9,489 9,662 8,684 9,110 2,432 2,470 2,425 2,336 2,185 2,156 2,169 2,173 2,181 2,276 2,327 2,327latin america 4,390 4,027 3,746 3,367 3,488 956 940 942 908 871 851 822 822 864 873 875 875asia (ex. china) 5,637 5,946 5,582 7,063 8,309 1,320 1,389 1,437 1,437 1,664 1,709 1,821 1,869 2,032 2,041 2,117 2,118western europe 7,785 7,085 7,022 7,192 7,245 1,720 1,749 1,779 1,775 1,778 1,794 1,810 1,810 1,791 1,808 1,823 1,823eastern/central europe 9,297 9,248 8,722 7,646 7,842 2,174 2,187 2,182 2,178 1,890 1,907 1,925 1,925 1,938 1,956 1,974 1,974australasia 4,520 4,359 4,125 3,779 3,740 1,022 1,021 1,042 1,040 966 933 940 940 927 933 940 940china 35,372 41,552 47,613 51,290 53,799 11,768 11,795 11,926 12,123 12,657 12,789 12,922 12,922 13,280 13,416 13,552 13,552middle east 6,613 7,327 7,665 9,009 9,867 1,908 1,919 1,923 1,915 2,144 2,153 2,356 2,356 2,449 2,463 2,478 2,478Regional Balanceafrica -2,954 -3,070 -3,543 -3,598 -3,664 -861 -878 -902 -902 -874 -879 -923 -923 -907 -914 -921 -921north america -5,001 -4,325 -4,068 -3,595 -4,271 -1,053 -1,075 -1,015 -926 -931 -888 -886 -890 -987 -1,069 -1,107 -1,107latin america 10,361 9,720 9,561 10,242 10,664 2,325 2,378 2,412 2,446 2,485 2,542 2,608 2,608 2,625 2,655 2,692 2,692asia (ex. china) -224 -655 314 561 388 133 81 49 50 216 192 101 53 113 127 75 74western europe -3,663 -2,957 -3,195 -3,389 -3,429 -776 -794 -814 -810 -841 -846 -851 -851 -850 -857 -861 -861eastern/central europe -4,257 -4,490 -3,852 -2,721 -2,827 -974 -973 -955 -951 -675 -679 -683 -683 -701 -706 -710 -710australasia 14,603 16,638 17,132 16,771 16,310 4,219 4,279 4,316 4,317 4,101 4,190 4,240 4,240 4,017 4,065 4,114 4,114china -2,226 -2,711 -3,479 -2,781 -2,094 -886 -792 -802 -999 -696 -695 -695 -695 -530 -525 -519 -519middle east -6,613 -7,327 -7,665 -8,949 -8,607 -1,908 -1,919 -1,923 -1,915 -2,130 -2,138 -2,341 -2,341 -2,138 -2,149 -2,160 -2,160World Analysis ('ooo tonnes)Production 86,909 93,076 98,884 104,169 109,534 24,382 24,653 24,924 24,924 25,686 25,971 26,256 26,256 27,008 27,308 27,609 27,609 y-on-y % change 6.9% 7.1% 6.2% 5.3% 5.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%


world market balance 27 823 1,204 2,540 2,471 221 307 365 311 656 799 569 517 641 627 602 601Inventory Analysis ('ooo tonnes)

mGa cumulative stocks 7,115 7,937 9,142 11,682 14,153 - - - - - - - - - - - -Days of requirement 30 31 34 42 48 - - - - - - - - - - - -Price Analysis ('ooo tonnes) mb alumina index / mbr price forecast (1) 374 319 327.3 323.0 319.3 341 327 318 323 328 317 322 326 312 317 320 328 as % of lme 3-m 15.5% 15.6% 17.3% 17.8% 16.5% 16.7% 15.9% 16.0% 17.5% 18.7% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.5%

LME Prices/Forecasts (2)

cash ($/tonne) 2,395 2,018 1,844 1,775 1,895 2,001 1,835 1,781 1,769 1,708 1,770 1,800 1,820 1,850 1,880 1,900 1,950three-month ($/tonne) 2,420 2,050 1,886 1,815 1,935 2,041 1,870 1,828 1,815 1,752 1,810 1,840 1,860 1,890 1,920 1,940 1,990source: metal bulletin research, iai, lme, wbms

2015 f

notes: (1) until 2011 we used the spot Fob international alumina price, now we use metal bulletin's alumina index price. (2) relates to official daily average prices, with the exception of the high and low values which can be set throughout the lme trading day.

World MGA Alumina supply/Demand Balance & Prices Analysis, 2011-2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 f



Productionafrica 18,768 19,257 21,557 22,500 23,300 5315 5374 5434 5434 5,548 5,610 5,671 5,671 5,745 5,809 5,873 5,873north america 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0latin america 45,944 46,552 45,519 50,005 52,400 11224 11349 11473 11473 12,330 12,467 12,604 12,604 12,921 13,064 13,208 13,208asia (ex. china) 50,560 44,420 64,390 28,430 30,100 15877 16053 16230 16230 7,010 7,088 7,166 7,166 7,422 7,504 7,587 7,587western europe 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 345 349 353 353 345 349 353 353 345 349 353 353eastern/central europe 5,477 4,983 4,923 5,500 5,500 1214 1227 1241 1241 1,356 1,371 1,386 1,386 1,356 1,371 1,386 1,386australasia 70,778 76,601 81,820 83,150 83,150 20175 20399 20623 20623 20,503 20,731 20,958 20,958 20,503 20,731 20,958 20,958china 51,015 60,464 66,088 73,611 77,171 16296 16477 16658 16658 18,151 18,352 18,554 18,554 19,028 19,240 19,451 19,451middle east 0 0 0 132 2,772 0 0 0 0 33 33 33 33 684 691 699 699Consumptionafrica 1,700 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0north america 12,800 13,700 14,700 14,100 14,100 3625 3665 3705 3705 3,477 3,515 3,554 3,554 3,477 3,515 3,554 3,554latin america 36,610 34,200 33,580 34,050 35,150 8280 8372 8464 8464 8,396 8,489 8,582 8,582 8,667 8,763 8,860 8,860asia (ex. china) 16,100 15,900 18,500 24,300 27,400 4562 4612 4663 4663 5,992 6,058 6,125 6,125 6,756 6,831 6,906 6,906western europe 13,000 11,300 11,100 11,100 11,100 2737 2767 2798 2798 2,737 2,767 2,798 2,798 2,737 2,767 2,798 2,798eastern/central europe 9,950 9,250 9,250 9,450 9,650 2281 2306 2332 2332 2,330 2,356 2,382 2,382 2,379 2,406 2,432 2,432australasia 58,900 64,000 65,400 63,800 62,500 16126 16305 16484 16484 15,732 15,906 16,081 16,081 15,411 15,582 15,753 15,753china 77,898 90,699 103,700 112,501 119,102 25570 25854 26138 26138 27,740 28,048 28,356 28,356 29,368 29,694 30,020 30,020middle east 0 0 0 200 2,800 0 0 0 0 49 50 50 50 690 698 706 706Regional Balanceafrica 17,068 18,757 21,557 22,500 23,300 5,315 5,374 5,434 5,434 5,548 5,610 5,671 5,671 5,745 5,809 5,873 5,873north america -12,800 -13,700 -14,700 -14,100 -14,100 -3,625 -3,665 -3,705 -3,705 -3,477 -3,515 -3,554 -3,554 -3,477 -3,515 -3,554 -3,554latin america 9,334 12,352 11,939 15,955 17,250 2,944 2,977 3,009 3,009 3,934 3,978 4,022 4,022 4,253 4,301 4,348 4,348asia (ex. china) 34,460 28,520 45,890 4,130 2,700 11,315 11,441 11,567 11,567 1,018 1,030 1,041 1,041 666 673 681 681western europe -11,600 -9,900 -9,700 -9,700 -9,700 -2,392 -2,418 -2,445 -2,445 -2,392 -2,418 -2,445 -2,445 -2,392 -2,418 -2,445 -2,445eastern/central europe -4,473 -4,267 -4,327 -3,950 -4,150 -1,067 -1,079 -1,091 -1,091 -974 -985 -996 -996 -1,023 -1,035 -1,046 -1,046australasia 11,878 12,601 16,420 19,350 20,650 4,049 4,094 4,139 4,139 4,771 4,824 4,877 4,877 5,092 5,148 5,205 5,205china -26,883 -30,235 -37,612 -38,890 -41,931 -9,274 -9,377 -9,480 -9,480 -9,589 -9,696 -9,803 -9,803 -10,339 -10,454 -10,569 -10,569middle east 0 0 0 -68 -28 0 0 0 0 -17 -17 -17 -17 -7 -7 -7 -7World Analysis ('ooo tonnes)Production 243,942 253,677 285,698 264,728 275,793 70,446 71,229 72,012 72,012 65,275 66,001 66,726 66,726 68,004 68,759 69,515 69,515 y-on-y % change 10.7% 4.0% 12.6% -7.3% 4.2% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% -7.3% -7.3% -7.3% -7.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%


world market balance 16,984 14,128 29,468 -4,773 -6,009 7,266 7,347 7,428 7,428 -1,177 -1,190 -1,203 -1,203 -1,482 -1,498 -1,515 -1,515source: metal bulletin research, iai, lme, wbms

notes: (1) asia (ex-china) includes india, indonesia, iran, Japan, Vietnam, azerbaijan, Kazahstan, turkey; (2) middle east includes saudi arabia and uae; (3) east & central europe includes russia, ukraine, romania, bosnia, slovenia, montenegro

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World Metallurgical Bauxite supply/Demand Balance, 2011-2015

2011 2012 2013

World MGA Alumina Supply/Demand Balance & Prices Analysis data is only available to paying

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16


15ALuMINA & BAuXIte analysis

Chinese Alumina output by region ('000 tonnes)2012 2013 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14

Regional Analysis ('ooo tonnes)shanxi 5,086 7,669 1,902 2,020 1,943 1,865 637 673 633 627.6 566.8 670.7shandong 10,942 11,829 2,921 3,162 2,919 3,005 988 965 966 1,066.5 963.3 975.7henan 11,416 12,134 3,079 3,138 3,029 3,069 1,034 1,018 977 1,073.3 969.4 1,026.4Guangxi 6,722 7,252 1,902 1,957 1,863 1,970 570 660 634 655.7 592.2 722.0chongqing 832 1,123 243 270 338 229 120 111 107 77.5 70.0 81.5Guizhou 2,605 3,596 881 899 949 930 321 301 326 307.1 277.4 345.4yunnan - 569 104 182 174 156 65 72 36 55.2 49.8 50.7Total 37,603 44,182 11,035 11,630 11,218 11,224 3,737 3,801 3,680 3,862.8 3,488.9 3,872.6Daily - - 121.3 126.4 121.9 124.7 120.5 126.7 118.7 124.6 124.6 124.9Annualised - - 44,261 46,142 44,504 45,521 43,996 46,242 43,331 45,481 45,481 45,596Source: Metal Bulletin Research, AntaikeNote: Production numbers include both MGA and NMGA


Regional production ('ooo tonnes)Africa

Ghana 450 1,000 2,500 2,500 3,000 616 623 630 630 616 623 630 630 740 748 756 756Guinea 16,997 17,481 18,457 19,000 19,300 4,551 4,602 4,652 4,652 4,685 4,737 4,789 4,789 4,759 4,812 4,865 4,865sierra leone 1,321 776 600 1,000 1,000 148 150 151 151 247 249 252 252 247 249 252 252

africa total 18,768 19,257 21,557 22,500 23,300 5,315 5,374 5,434 5,434 5,548 5,610 5,671 5,671 5,745 5,809 5,873 5,873Latin America

brazil 29,344 30,552 29,419 31,950 32,060 7,254 7,335 7,415 7,415 7,878 7,966 8,053 8,053 7,905 7,993 8,081 8,081Dominican republic 0 0 1,500 1,500 1,500 370 374 378 378 370 374 378 378 370 374 378 378Guyana 1,100 1,300 1,200 2,100 3,200 296 299 302 302 518 524 529 529 789 798 807 807Jamaica 10,000 9,700 8,500 10,005 10,200 2,096 2,119 2,142 2,142 2,467 2,494 2,522 2,522 2,515 2,543 2,571 2,571suriname 3,200 3,000 2,700 2,700 3,190 666 673 681 681 666 673 681 681 787 795 804 804Venezuela 2,300 2,000 2,200 1,750 2,250 542 548 555 555 432 436 441 441 555 561 567 567

latin america total 45,944 46,552 45,519 50,005 52,400 11,224 11,349 11,473 11,473 12,330 12,467 12,604 12,604 12,921 13,064 13,208 13,208Asia (ex. China)

india 10,790 11,150 12,200 16,130 17,580 3,008 3,042 3,075 3,075 3,977 4,021 4,066 4,066 4,335 4,383 4,431 4,431indonesia 33,700 27,300 45,500 5,000 5,000 11,219 11,344 11,468 11,468 1,233 1,247 1,260 1,260 1,233 1,247 1,260 1,260malaysia 300 300 300 300 300 74 75 76 76 74 75 76 76 74 75 76 76Vietnam 0 200 700 1,250 1,400 173 175 176 176 308 312 315 315 345 349 353 353iran 500 500 500 500 500 123 125 126 126 123 125 126 126 123 125 126 126turkey 370 370 370 370 390 91 92 93 93 91 92 93 93 96 97 98 98Kazakhstan 4,900 4,600 4,820 4,880 4,930 1,188 1,202 1,215 1,215 1,203 1,217 1,230 1,230 1,216 1,229 1,243 1,243

asia (ex. china) total 50,560 44,420 64,390 28,430 30,100 15,877 16,053 16,230 16,230 7,010 7,088 7,166 7,166 7,422 7,504 7,587 7,587Middle East

saud arabia 0 0 0 132 2,772 0 0 0 0 33 33 33 33 684 691 699 699middle east total 0 0 0 132 2,772 0 0 0 0 33 33 33 33 684 691 699 699Western Europe

Greece 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 345 349 353 353 345 349 353 353 345 349 353 353western europe total 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 345 349 353 353 345 349 353 353 345 349 353 353Eastern/Central Europe

bosnia 800 500 500 500 500 123 125 126 126 123 125 126 126 123 125 126 126montenegro 140 200 200 200 200 49 50 50 50 49 50 50 50 49 50 50 50russia 4,537 4,283 4,223 4,800 4,800 1,041 1,053 1,065 1,065 1,184 1,197 1,210 1,210 1,184 1,197 1,210 1,210

eastern/central europe total 5,477 4,983 4,923 5,500 5,500 1,214 1,227 1,241 1,241 1,356 1,371 1,386 1,386 1,356 1,371 1,386 1,386Oceania

australia 70,778 76,301 81,370 82,650 82,650 20,064 20,287 20,510 20,510 20,379 20,606 20,832 20,832 20,379 20,606 20,832 20,832Fiji 0 300 450 500 500 111 112 113 113 123 125 126 126 123 125 126 126

oceania total 70,778 76,601 81,820 83,150 83,150 20,175 20,399 20,623 20,623 20,503 20,731 20,958 20,958 20,503 20,731 20,958 20,958Chinachina total 51,015 60,464 66,088 73,611 77,171 16,296 16,477 16,658 16,658 18,151 18,352 18,554 18,554 19,028 19,240 19,451 19,451World Total 243,942 253,677 285,698 264,728 275,793 70,446 71,229 72,012 72,012 65,275 66,001 66,726 66,726 68,004 68,759 69,515 69,515source: metal bulletin research

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Global Metallurgical Bauxite Mine output by Country, 2011-2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 f

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17ALuMINA & BAuXITe analysis


16 ALuMINA & BAuXIte analysis

Chinese bauxite & alumina import volume & price by country

Indonesia Australia India Brazil Guinea Fiji Ghana Others Total Indonesia Australia India Brazil Guinea Fiji Average Australia Total Australia AverageJan 11 2,346.2 471.0 153.2 - - - - - 2,971 39.8 51.0 43.2 - - - 41.81 339.8 345.0 - -Feb 11 1,486.3 574.0 163.5 - - - - - 2,224 42.7 53.8 49.2 - - - 45.88 223.1 226.2 - -mar 11 2,928.0 648.3 - - - - - - 3,577 43.3 55.2 - - - - 45.48 130.8 135.5 - -apr 11 3,342.9 745.7 - - - - - 49.6 4,138 43.7 54.4 - - - - 45.58 128.2 131.7 - -may 11 3,481.3 975.9 44.6 - - - - - 4,502 44.6 55.4 50.0 - - - 47.01 111.5 116.0 - -Jun 11 2,748.7 742.3 - - - - - - 3,491 43.3 54.9 - - - - 45.77 69.7 74.6 - -Jul 11 3,151.4 540.1 - - - - - 51.6 3,743 43.2 56.1 - - - - 44.97 56.1 61.5 - -aug 11 2,984.0 740.9 126.6 - - - - - 3,852 43.2 54.9 52.0 - - - 45.76 32.0 36.9 - -sep 11 3,475.2 1,002.8 - - - - - - 4,478 43.8 57.2 - - - - 46.80 77.9 81.7 - -oct 11 2,375.0 711.2 - - - - - - 3,086 43.7 56.5 - - - - 46.65 258.6 262.3 - -nov 11 4,078.2 516.1 54.0 - - - - 4,594 44.8 55.2 54.9 - - - 46.58 193.5 228.1 - -Dec 11 3,711.4 731.0 137.2 - - - - - 4,580 43.7 56.7 56.0 - - - 46.17 199.4 202.8 - -Jan 12 2,414.7 661.3 - - - - - 45.3 3,121 43.2 54.7 - - - - 45.69 413.4 447.7 - 364.41Feb 12 3,807.6 809.6 - - - - - 48.7 4,666 43.4 54.5 - - - - 45.24 266.5 277.1 - 353.97mar 12 4,418.1 801.0 48.9 - - - - - 5,268 43.5 53.7 48.9 - - - 45.08 359.8 441.0 - 363.71apr 12 4,619.4 623.3 49.8 - - - - - 5,293 43.0 53.6 48.6 - - - 44.35 217.0 283.0 - 369.79may 12 5,563.9 710.3 - - - - - - 6,274 43.1 55.6 - - - - 44.48 580.9 718.4 - 364.85Jun 12 187.4 650.0 135.1 - - - - 51.4 1,024 40.0 53.1 48.6 - - - 49.49 304.5 308.7 - 371.15Jul 12 212.5 1,095.2 24.1 - - 53.7 - - 1,386 47.2 53.1 48.6 - - 55.5 52.23 457.5 463.1 - 369.97aug 12 945.5 990.4 - - - 64.6 - 43.3 2,044 48.7 52.6 - - - 54.4 51.08 289.1 317.6 - 353.73sep 12 626.8 877.4 111.9 - - 54.2 - - 1,698 49.3 52.4 51.1 - - 55.3 51.64 477.0 481.4 - 351.67oct 12 1,048.7 730.9 285.2 - - - - 51.2 2,142 52.4 52.9 54.1 - - - 52.69 367.1 370.5 - 354.78nov 12 2,265.4 792.6 361.4 55.6 - 112.5 - - 3,612 50.8 52.9 53.3 80.6 - 56.3 52.33 541.0 545.1 - 357.52Dec 12 2,251.9 732.0 291.4 158.3 51.4 - - - 3,539 49.2 54.7 53.3 82.5 80.0 - 53.05 383.7 389.3 - 367.27Jan 13 3,039.0 986.0 649.7 53.2 343.2 - 36.0 - 5,137 49.7 59.4 53.5 80.7 77.3 - 54.60 486.1 490.0 - 359.56Feb 13 2,779.2 904.7 469.1 - 50.7 52.5 38.3 - 4,295 44.9 55.5 55.4 - 73.5 56.2 49.03 350.2 353.0 - 349.47mar 13 3,378.0 782.2 400.4 - - - - - 4,561 49.7 55.1 56.6 - - - 51.21 192.2 196.8 - 381.47apr 13 4,557.3 1,330.2 744.0 - 62.5 41.8 - - 6,736 50.1 58.2 56.6 - 71.8 57.5 52.66 318.1 323.2 - 383.78may 13 3,774.8 1,413.6 737.6 - 65.7 - 91.8 63.1 6,147 51.1 58.7 57.4 - 71.0 - 54.04 195.5 202.5 - 393.80Jun 13 4,095.0 1,263.9 443.2 107.5 62.7 61.2 - 44.7 6,078 49.6 59.6 57.4 83.4 71.5 56.0 53.13 89.1 94.5 - 409.54Jul 13 4,044.9 1,344.6 936.8 111.4 59.2 - 27.0 - 6,524 54.1 59.5 60.6 84.8 71.5 - 56.94 217.6 238.0 351.6 371.27aug 13 4,983.3 1,231.3 376.1 49.4 65.4 115.1 160.0 - 6,981 52.5 57.2 63.4 85.9 71.1 56.4 54.96 133.7 146.3 365.5 406.63sep 13 5,667.8 1,631.5 253.8 - - - 38.2 - 7,591 51.9 57.7 60.6 - - - 53.60 415.3 453.6 346.0 357.51oct 13 5,359.6 902.9 51.8 43.6 121.8 66.4 77.3 349.9 6,973 49.7 56.8 59.8 81.5 70.9 56.6 52.06 382.4 462.7 338.9 354.04nov 13 3,491.5 1,500.0 50.1 206.3 - 59.1 63.0 - 5,370 51.8 57.2 55.7 81.9 - 56.5 54.82 457.3 549.0 348.7 357.86Dec 13 3,532.7 1,000.9 281.2 197.1 - 64.5 140.1 - 5,216 52.0 56.8 61.3 81.9 - 56.9 55.32 337.3 349.8 345.2 364.97Jan 14 6,139.6 1,416.6 97.6 - 125.5 - 87.2 149.4 8,016 49.5 55.7 58.2 - 70.5 - 51.64 547.4 644.3 346.3 354.02Feb 14 2,128.0 895.5 53.8 - - - - 151.9 3,229 51.2 55.9 57.8 - - - 53.06 349.0 466.8 334.0 355.16mar 14 477.4 768.8 48.5 174.8 - - 117.4 243.2 1,830 53.0 56.7 53.1 76.6 - - 59.49 287.3 379.3 347.8 362.44Q1 11 6,760.5 1,693.3 316.6 - - - - - 8,771 41.9 53.3 30.8 - - - 44.39 693.7 706.8 - -Q2 11 9,573.0 2,463.9 44.6 - - - - 49.6 12,131 43.9 54.9 16.7 - - - 46.12 309.5 322.2 - -Q3 11 9,610.6 2,283.8 126.6 - - - - 51.6 12,073 43.4 56.1 17.3 - - - 45.84 165.9 180.0 - -Q4 11 10,164.6 1,958.3 191.2 - - - - 12,260 44.1 56.1 37.0 - - - 46.47 651.5 693.2 - -Q1 12 10,640.4 2,271.9 48.9 - - - - 94.0 13,055 43.3 54.3 16.3 - - - 45.34 1,039.7 1,165.9 - 360.70Q2 12 10,370.7 1,983.6 184.9 - - - - 51.4 12,591 42.0 54.1 32.4 - - - 46.11 1,102.4 1,310.1 - 368.59Q3 12 1,784.8 2,963.0 136.0 - - 172.4 - 43.3 5,127 48.4 52.7 33.2 - - 55.1 51.65 1,223.5 1,262.1 - 358.45Q4 12 5,566.0 2,255.6 938.1 213.8 51.4 112.5 - 51.2 9,293 50.8 53.5 53.5 54.4 26.7 18.8 52.69 1,291.8 1,304.9 - 359.86Q1 13 9,196.2 2,672.9 1,519.2 53.2 393.8 52.5 74.3 - 13,992 48.1 56.7 55.2 26.9 50.3 18.7 51.61 1,028.5 1,039.8 - 363.50Q2 13 12,427.1 4,007.7 1,924.7 107.5 191.0 103.0 91.8 107.8 18,961 50.3 58.8 57.1 27.8 71.4 37.8 53.27 602.7 620.2 - 395.71Q3 13 14,696.0 4,207.4 1,566.7 160.9 124.6 115.1 225.2 - 21,096 52.9 58.1 61.5 56.9 47.5 18.8 55.17 766.5 837.8 354.4 378.47Q4 13 12,383.8 3,403.8 383.1 446.9 121.8 190.1 280.3 349.9 17,560 51.2 56.9 58.9 81.8 23.6 56.6 54.07 1,177.0 1,361.5 344.3 358.96Q1 14 8,745.0 3,081.0 199.9 174.8 125.5 - 204.6 544.6 13,075 51.2 56.1 56.3 25.5 23.5 - 54.73 1,183.7 1,490.5 342.7 357.202011 36,108.7 8,399 679 - - - - 47 45,235 43.3 55.1 25.4 - - - 45.7 1,820.6 1,902 - -2012 28,361.9 9,474 1,308 213.8 51.4 284.9 - 240 40,067 46.1 53.6 33.9 13.6 6.7 18.5 48.9 4,657.4 5,043 - 361.92013 48,703.1 14,292 5,394 768.5 831.1 460.7 671.6 458 71,609 50.6 57.6 58.2 48.3 48.2 33.0 53.5 3,574.8 3,859 174.7 374.2

Volume (000 tonnes) Average CIF price ($/t)

Source: Metal Bulletin Research, Antaike, CNAL, WBMS

AluminaVolume (000 tonnes) Average CIF price ($/tonne)

Bauxite

Chinese bauxite & alumina import volume & price by country data is only available to paying

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18 DeMAND inDicators

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selected Demand indicators2011 2012 2013 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14

Japan Unit

motor Vehicle Production (mVP): Jama unit 8,398,630 9,943,077 9,630,181 2,464,577 2,504,560 1,724,251 871,570 846,270 786,720 860,854 863,397 - building construction started sq m th 126,510 132,609 147,679 38,967 38,899 22,526 13,196 13,065 12,637 12,050 10,476 - cPi 2005=100 99.3 99.3 99.6 100 100 67 100.3 100.4 100.5 100.3 100.3 -

south KoreaiPi: sa: manufacturing 2005=100 149.6 152.7 - - - - - - - - - - motor Vehicle Production: Kama unit 4,657,094 4,561,766 4,521,429 966,285 1,271,260 1,154,853 425,369 426,571 419,320 368,228 361,115 425,510 buildings commenced unit 198,863 190,593 187,545 47,343 48,029 22,298 17,868 16,270 13,891 9,979 12,319 -

chinaiPi: % change % 13.8 10.0 8.9 10.1 6.8 - 10.3 10.0 - - - - industrial Production: automobiles unit th 19,186,000 20,631,000 23,845,705 5,577,000 6,667,000 2,363,000 2,085,000 2,284,000 2,298,000 - - 2,363,000 machinery: Production: motor Vehicle unit 19,189,956 20,505,353 23,911,181 5,574,318 6,666,815 - 2,083,368 2,283,711 2,299,736 - - - cPi Py=100 105.4 102.7 102.6 102.8 102.9 102.3 103.2 103.0 102.5 102.5 102.0 102.4 Purchasing managers' index: mfg % 51.4 50.8 50.8 50.8 51.3 50.3 51.4 51.4 51.0 50.5 50.2 50.3 Pmi: mfg: new order % 51.9 50.9 51.7 51.9 52.3 50.7 52.5 52.3 52.0 50.9 50.5 50.6 Pmi: mfg: Production % 53.5 52.9 52.8 52.6 54.3 52.8 54.4 54.5 53.9 53.0 52.6 52.7 Fai: ytd: si: manufacturing rmb mn 58,837,566 72,602,591 85,760,178 27,522,609 40,288,389 4,320,692 12,130,849 13,420,566 14,736,974 981,264 981,264 2,358,163 FDi: utilized: ytd: construction usD mn 5,460.8 7,317.9 6,649.6 1,991.7 3,276.4 647.3 969.2 1,087.4 1,219.8 76.7 261.8 308.8

usiPi: sa 2007=100 93.6 97.1 99.9 100.0 101.2 102.3 100.8 101.4 101.5 101.3 102.5 103.2 iPi: sa: consumer Goods 2007=100 90.9 92.5 94.7 94.2 95.9 97.0 95.4 95.8 96.6 95.9 97.2 97.9 iPi: sa: mfg: machinery 2007=100 95.6 101.1 102.9 103.2 104.6 106.7 105.3 105.5 102.8 105.4 107.5 107.3 manufacturing industries: sa: inventories usD mn 7,079,698 7,406,808 7,558,734 1,894,271 1,903,332 1,279,957 633,137 633,667 636,528 637,904 642,053 - manufacturing industries: sa: new orders usD mn 5,511,085 5,672,839 5,824,602 1,457,063 1,471,749 970,152 489,061 496,380 486,308 481,320 488,832 - automobile inventories unit th 8,019.3 10,986.1 13,563.1 3,019.7 3,778.0 2,701.9 1,210.3 1,300.6 1,267.1 1,329.2 1,372.7 - automobile: passenger car production unit th 2,938,300 4,112,900 4,360,000 1,041,800 1,102,800 702,700 357,200 370,500 375,100 345,200 357,500 - cPi 2005=100 115.2 117.6 119.3 119.8 119.4 120.3 119.6 119.3 119.3 119.8 120.2 121.0

mexicoiPi: sa: manufacturing industries 2003=100 119.7 124.8 62.6 - - - - - - - - - motor Vehicle Production: amia: total unit 2,557,550 2,884,869 2,933,465 740,157 705,146 774,731 285,230 255,695 164,221 249,400 248,017 277,314

canadaiPi: sa % 109.6 111.6 113.8 114.2 114.9 - 115.0 115.2 114.6 - - - Pmi % 59.3 58.4 54.9 52.3 50.9 57.7 64.2 48.2 40.2 53.6 57.8 61.8

european indicators iPi: sa 2005=100 100.2 97.7 97.0 97.0 97.5 65.2 96.6 98.1 97.8 97.7 98.0 - eu: harmonized consumer Price index 2005=100 112.9 115.7 117.3 117.3 117.7 117.2 117.6 117.5 118.0 116.6 117.0 118.1 eu: consumer Price index: % change 2005=100 2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5

FranceiPi: mfg: transportation equipment (te) 2005=100 88 84 - - - - - - - - - - nbca: no of housing (nh): France metropolitan sq m th 35,684 40,175 40,854 10,774 10,000 5,556 3,883 2,896 3,221 2,720 2,836 -

GermanyDe: iPi: sa 2005=100 113 113 113 114 115 39 113 116 116 117 - - motor Vehicle Production: car unit 489,327 449,038 453,886 451,473 451,351 485,167 456,669 537,383 360,000 442,600 493,200 519,700 construction started: new bldg (nb): total unit 25,817 24,580 25,009 6,980 5,962 3,476 2,136 1,962 1,864 1,755 1,721 - construction orders Value index: total 2005=100 117 125 77 53 - - - - - - - -

uKmotor Vehicle Production: car unit 1,343,810 1,464,869 1,509,477 361,043 384,044 404,508 160,854 137,624 85,566 128,620 133,730 142,158

russiaiPi: manufacturing (mfg) 2008=100 1,789.8 1,977.1 2,149.0 2,235.5 2,438.6 1,221.7 2,261.3 2,398.2 2,656.3 1,728.4 1,936.7 - Fci rub bn 11,035.7 12,586.1 13,255.5 3,386.5 5,159.5 1,842.8 1,443.8 1,366.7 2,349.0 492.2 650.2 700.4

turkeymotor Vehicle Production unit 674,496 674,496 674,496 168,624 168,624 168,624 56,208 56,208 56,208 56,208 56,208 56,208 consumer Price index (cPi) 2003=100 189.9 206.8 222.3 222.9 228.3 235.1 227.9 228.0 229.0 233.5 234.5 237.2

braziliPi: sa 2002=100 129 126 127 126.9 126.2 85.1 128.1 127.6 122.7 127.4 127.9 - iPi: sa: manufacturing 2002=100 127.9 124.4 126.4 125.9 125.2 84.5 127.2 126.7 121.8 126.5 127.1 - iPi: sa: capital Goods 2002=100 189.0 165.4 188.4 192.2 186.0 125.7 198.4 193.3 166.3 188.4 188.6 -

argentinamotor Vehicle Production unit 828,771 764,495 791,007 213,745 182,712 147,416 75,604 62,186 44,922 36,156 52,941 58,319 cPi 2005=100 111.3 100.3 - - - - - - - - - -

indiaindustrial Production index (iPi) 2004-2005=100 170 171 172 168.1 170.7 118.7 169.6 163.6 179.0 183.4 172.8 - industrial Production index: manufacturing 2004-2005=100 128.6 126.8 123.9 115.0 125.3 88.1 118.8 123.7 133.4 138.1 126.3 - motor Vehicle Production: total unit 19,827,464 20,727,024 21,135,538 5,236,871 5,595,604 5,600,744 2,087,333 1,773,678 1,734,593 1,935,311 1,811,276 1,854,157 Foreign inward investment usD mn 25,485 45,250 33,122 1,431 8,425 4,417 1,624 2,079 4,722 3,022 1,395 - Foreign inward investment: Direct usD mn 42,669.0 34,056.0 34,167.0 9,787.0 7,187.0 6,628.0 2,300.0 2,712.0 2,175.0 3,606.0 3,022.0 -

Sources: CEIC. Notes: SA: seasonally adjusted, CPI: Consumer price index, IPI: Industrial production index, PMI: Purchasing Managers Index, FCI: Fixed Capital Investment

80

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90

95

100

105

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115

Sep 11 Feb 12 Jul 12 Dec 12 May 13 Oct 13 Mar 14

Industrial ProductionUS EU 27

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115

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Consumer Price IndexUS EU 27 Japan China

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ThousandMotor Vehicle Production

US Germany South Korea India China

Selected Demand Indicators data is only


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