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3rd International Conference
on Public Policy (ICPP3)
June 28-30, 2017 – Singapore
Panel T03 P06 Session 3
Policy, Values and Human Behaviour
Political values, voting intentions and policy attitudes: An exploratory study from Australia
Author(s)
Geoff Cockfield, University of Southern Queensland, Australia, [email protected]
Linda Courtenay Botterill, University of Canberra, Australia, [email protected]
Alan Fenna, Curtin University, Australia, [email protected]
Date of presentation
June 30
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Abstract
Thispaperispartofalargerprojectconsideringtheroleandanalyticalpotentialofvaluesin
politicsandpolicyprocesses.Inordertodevelopthiswork,weconsiderifandhow,personal
valuestranslatethroughpoliticalandpolicypreferencestoactualpolicyresponses.Weexplore
therelationshipsbetweenasetofpoliticalvaluesitems,votingintentionsandattitudestothree
issues:coalseamgasextraction,windfarmdevelopmentsandclimatechange.Wepresentthe
resultsoftheempiricalanalysesandthenconsidertheimplicationsfortheorisingthe
relationshipsbetweenindividualvalues,partiesandtheirpolicyandproclaimedvaluesand
ideology.
Keywords:Politicalvalues;ideology;politicalparties;valuesinpolicy
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Introduction
Researchinpsychologyhaslongrecognisedtheroleofvaluesinhumanbehaviourandattitude
formation,howeverpolicytheoristshavegenerallyonlygivenitpassingattention.Valuesare
referencedintheworkofLindblom(1959),Simon(1944,1957),andlaterscholars(forexample
Stewart2009,ThacherandRein2004),butnotgiventheprominencethatperhapstheywarrant.
ThispaperbuildsonsomeoftheworkofSchwartzandcolleagues(Schwartz,Caprara,andVecchione
2010),whichisonlystartingto‘catchon’(Schwartz,perscom)inpoliticalscience.Wehavetaken
theopportunity,providedthroughasurveyofattitudestoparticularissuesamongstasampleof
Australians,toexaminethelinksbetween‘political’valuesandvotingintentionsandthentosearch
forlinksbetweenthosepoliticalvaluesandattitudestoparticularpolicies.
Thispaperisapresentationofverypreliminaryresultsandadiscussionofpotentialfurtherresearch.
Itisverymuchadraftpaperandthereforenotforcitation.Wefirstprovidesomebackgroundto
valuesresearch,giveabriefoverviewoftheAustralianpartysystemsinceoneofthekeyvariablesin
theresearchisvotingintention,andthendescribethemethodsfordatacollectionandanalysis.
Fromtheresultswenotethatthereappeartobesometriangularandsignificantrelationships
betweenresponsesonpoliticalvaluesitems,intentiontovoteforparticularpartiesandattitudesto
theselectedpolicyissues.Theseissuesareclimatechange,coalseamgasextractionandwindfarm
developments.Wealsonotethoughthatthecapacityforeachsetofitemstoexplainvariance
amongstotheritemsisrelativelyweakandpossiblereasonsforthisarediscussed.
Thedevelopmentofvaluesresearch
Schwartz’sworkhasanimpressivegenealogybuildingonmorethanhalfacenturyofwork
onvalues.Inhispioneeringworkonhumanvalues,MiltonRokeach(1973)proposedatwo
dimensionalfreedom-equalitymodelwhichformedthebasisofmuchsubsequentresearch(for
exampleBraithwaite1982,SchwartzandBilsky1987).AtaboutthesametimeasRokeach’sworkwas
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published,Inglehart(1971)wasreportingonhisworkonvalueschangefindingsandhisidentification
of‘post-bourgeois’or‘postmaterialistvalues’.Theseresearchersuseddifferentmethodologiesto
arriveattheirdefinitionsandthequestionofhowtomeasure,identifyandclassifyvaluescontinues
tobedebatedintheliterature(forexampleAlwinandKrosnick1985).Althoughthereremainsa
plethoraofdefinitionsandtypologies,andevensomeargumentthatlackofdefinitionalclarityisnot
necessarilyabadthing(Kuklinski2001,362),inourworkwetakeasastartingpointthemost
enduringdefinitionofvalues,thatproposedbyKluckhohnintheearly1950s:
Avalueisaconception,explicitorimplicit,distinctiveofanindividualorcharacteristicofa
group,ofthedesirablewhichinfluencestheselectionfromavailablemodes,means,andends
ofaction.(Kluckhohn1952,395–italicsinoriginal)
Basedonthisandotherdefinitionsintheliterature,SchwartzandBilsky(1987,551)
concludedthat‘valuesare(a)conceptsorbeliefs,(b)aboutdesirableendstatesorbehaviors,(c)that
transcendspecificsituations,(d)guideselectionorevaluationofbehaviorandevents,and(e)are
orderedbyrelativeimportance’.Linksaremadeintheliteraturebetweentheoriginsofvaluesand
theirroleinsocietalandindividualpreservationandeffectivefunctioning(SchwartzandBilsky1987,
551,Rokeach1973,3,Kluckhohn1952,417).Whilethenuancesofdefinitionsandmethodologyare
importantinthepsychologicalliterature,forthepurposesofconceptualisingtheroleofvaluesin
politicsandthepolicyprocess,weproposethattheextensiveworkofSchwartzandhiscolleagues
(forexampleBarneaandSchwartz1998,Capraraetal.2006,Piurko,Schwartz,andDavidov2011,
Schwartz1996,SchwartzandBilsky1987,Schwartz1992,1994,Schwartz,Caprara,andVecchione
2010)isagoodstartingpoint.Thisresearchhasbeendescribedas‘layingclaimtotheintellectual
territoryoncestakedoutbyRokeach’(Kilburn2009,870).
BuildingontheRokeachvaluessurveys,Schwartz’sworkbeganfromthepremisethatvalues
are‘cognitiverepresentationsofthreeuniversalrequirements:(a)biologicalneeds;(b)interactional
requirementsforinterpersonalcoordination;and(c)societaldemandsforgroupwelfareand
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survival’(SchwartzandBilsky1987,550).Fromthere,eight‘motivationaldomains’ofvalueswere
identified:enjoyment,security,socialpower,achievement,self-direction,prosocial,restrictive
conformity,andmaturity.Thisworkwasfurtherdevelopedandrefinedandinitiallytestedacross20
countries(Schwartz1992).Theauthorsbuiltontheschemaofvaluestoproducethenowwidely
usedSchwartz‘wheel’(FigureOne)whichhasformedthebasisforalargebodyofresearchacross
manynations.Asof2006,theSchwartztheoryoftenuniversalhumanvaluesandtherelationships
betweenthemhadbeentestedin67countriesandfoundtoberobust(Capraraetal.2006,8).
Schwartzetal.,(2010)thenfurtherdevelopedthisworktotestlinksbetweenpersonal
valuesand‘corepoliticalvalues’.AccordingtoSchwartzetal.(2010,422),politicalvalueshad
previouslybeeninferred,bypoliticalscientists,from‘agreementwithprescriptionsofhow
governmentorsocietyshouldfunction’.Schwartz(1994)hadpreviouslyarguedthat‘basicpersonal
values’underpinpoliticalideologiesandattitudes.Schwartzetal(2010)reviewedproposalson
politicalvaluesandcreatedaset(outlinedbelow)thatisencompassingofseveral,more
parsimonioussetsofvalues.Theythencompared,usingsurveydatafromItaly,twomodelled
explanationsofvarianceinattitudes:oneusingpersonalvaluesandoneusingaself-locationona
left-rightpoliticalaxisandconcludedthatthevaluesanalysisexplainedmoreofthevariance
(Schwartzetal.2010,446).Theyconcludedthat
Basicvaluesmayprovidetheunconsciousmotivationalgroundingthatconstrainsand
organizescorepoliticalvalues.Incontrast,left-rightplacementmaysummarizeindividual
party’sstancesonpoliticalissuesdescriptively.(446)
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Figure1:Schwartz’svaluecircle.Graphicprovidedtoauthorsbypersonalcorrespondence
Feldman(2003,477)arguesthatresearchinpoliticalandsocialpsychologyisfairlydefinitive
initsconclusionthattheaverage,politicallyunsophisticatedvoterdoesnotthinkinideologicalor
left-righttermsbutrathertheirpoliticalattitudesarebasedintheirvalues.Thisresearchsuggests
that,apartfromasmallnumberofparticipantsinthedemocraticprocess(Converse2004[1964]),
votersresorttodecisionheuristicsthatarelargelyresponsestovaluescues(Hochschild2001,334).
Intermsofelectoralchoice,therefore,ratherthananalysepolicymanifestoesorplatformsindetail
toweighuppartypositionsonanarrayofissues,voters‘formanimpressionofpossible
consequencesofvotingforonepartyratherthananotherfortheattainmentoftheir
values’(Schwartz1996,10).Examiningthevaluespositionsofvoterscanprovideasenseofwhether
thosewithsharedvaluesbroadlyalignwithparticularpartiesandwhethertheyarethereforeuseful
predictorsofvotingintention.Evenifvotersdon’tthinkinleft-righttermsthevaluesofthevarious
politicalparties,mayneverthelessleadthemtovotethisway.
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TheAustralianPartySystem
Atfirstglance,theAustralianpartysystemhasthecharacteristicsofastrongtwo-partysystem,with
competitionatelectionsessentiallybetweenthecentre-leftAustralianLaborParty(ALP)andthe
centrerightcoalitionoftheLiberalandNational(formerlyCountry)Parties.Australiawasthefirst
countrytohaveagovernmentformedbythepoliticalwingoforganisedlabour;asBryce(1923,189)
describedit,Australiawasthefirstdemocracyinwhich‘thelabouringmassesfirstgainedcontrolof
thelegalgovernmentanddisplayedtheirqualityasrulers’.Thewritingontheformationof
Australia’spoliticalpartiestendstothenexplaintheevolutionofthepoliticalprogramoftheLabor
Party’sopponentsintermsofreactiontothisrather(atthetime)novelsituation(forexample
Overacker1952,Hancock1961[1930]).Suchwasthereactionofthenon-Laborindividualsand
groupsengagedinpoliticsatthattime(1901-1911)thatthefoundingforerunneroftheLiberalParty
includedprotectionistsand‘free-traders’,whichwouldseemtobearemarkableaccommodation
aroundvaluesrelatingtoeconomicfreedom.Thecoalitionpartieshavealsoaccommodatedother
valueorideologicalspectra.
InadditiontothecleavagebetweenLaborandnon-Labor,therewasasomewhatweaker
divisionbetweentheurbanandtherural.Inreactiontothedominationatthetimeoftwourban
basedparties,theCountryPartywasformedandenteredtheFederalParliamentin1920.Although
itinitiallydeclareditsindependenceoftheothertwoparties,itveryquicklymovedintocoalition
withthepredecessorofthemodernLiberalPartyandhasspentmoretimeingovernmentthanin
opposition.NowknownastheNationalParty,itretainsitsstrongruralrootsandisoneofthefew
remainingagrarianpartiesinthedevelopedworld.Althoughdemographyandeconomicsappearto
bemovingagainsttheparty’sinterests,itremainsremarkablypersistent,defyingfrequent
predictionsofitsdemise(forexampleAitkin1973,424,Malcolm1989,134,Richmond1978,132).
Unlikecoalitionarrangementsinmanyotherdemocraticsystems,theagreementbetween
theCoalitionpartiesgenerallyendures,atthenationallevel,inoppositionandgovernmentalike,
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suchthattheterm‘Coalition’functionsasanameforthetwoincombination.Votersknowthat
whentheyvoteforeithertheLiberalPartyortheNationalParty,theyarevotingfortheCoalition
whichgoesintoeachelectioncampaignwithasinglepartyplatformandpolicyprogram.Itis
thereforeunsurprisingthatthewritingaboutAustralianpoliticstendstoregardAustraliaasastrong
two-partysystem.Sartoriattemptedtocapturethenatureofthecoalitionrelationshipbydescribing
itasa‘coalesence’(1976,188)and‘symbiotic’(1990,341).Becauseofthestabilityofthe
arrangement,theAustralianelectorateandpoliticalcommentatorsareuncomfortablewithbalance
ofpowerpoliticsinthelowerhouse.FollowingtheformationofaminorityLaborgovernmentin
2010,Australianpoliticswasvariouslydescribedas‘toxic’,‘dysfunctional’(Jaensch2012)anda
‘failedsystem’(Brown2012).Australiandemocracywasdescribedasbeingafflictedby‘anawful
disasterofdoubtandimpotence’(Brown2012).TheelectionoftheestablishedCoalitionhowever
elicitsnosuchresponse,eventhoughtheseareineffectLiberalminoritygovernments.
Overall,thetwoCoalitionpartiesarecentre-right,encompassingliberalism,conservatism
andagrarianism,withtouchesofpopulismandeconomicnationalismevidentonoccasions.When
disagreementsarisetheNationalsareveryvocaldefendersofissuesthatmattertotheirconstituents
and,evenwhentheydon’tgettheirway,theirpresenceintheParliamentisvaluedbytheir
supporters.Overall,theNationalPartycanbeunderstoodasa‘wing’partyontherighthandsideof
theAustralianpartysystem,nota‘hinge’partyinthecentre(Siaroff2003,277,285).Assuchwe
wouldexpecttheretobeoverlapinthevaluespositionsofthetwoparties’supporters,particularly
astheagrarianismwhichissomuchpartoftheNationalParty’simageissufficientlywidespread
acrosstheAustraliancommunity(CockfieldandBotterill2012)toalmostconstitutea‘culturaltruism’
(McGuire1964).TheNationalsespouse‘familyvalues’andnationalismandhavetriedtoposition
themselvesasaconservativeparty(Richmond1978)butthereisnowalsoaconsiderableorientation
tosocialconservatismwithintheLiberalParty.
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InadditiontoLaborandtheCoalition,theGreenshaveemergedinrecentyearsasathird,
althoughstillminor,forceinAustralianpolitics.Whileoriginallydevelopingfromthe
environmentalistmovement,theGreenshavesinceadoptedanumberofbroaderpost-materialist
policiessuchassupportformarriageequalityandotherprogressive,or‘leftlibertarian’(Manning
andRootes2004,404)socialpolicies.Althoughthepartyitselfclaimstobe‘neitherleftnorrightbut
outinfront’(ManningandRootes2004,406),itisgenerallyregardedassittingfurthertotheleft
thanLaboronsomeeconomicissues,suchastaxation,socialwelfareandstateownedenterprises
andhassomewhatdifferentviewsonrefugees(moresympathetic)andmilitaryengagements
overseas(moreopposed).
Finally,Australia,especiallyinruralareas,hassome‘wildfire’,populistparties.Theseare
generallyinfavourofwesterntraditionalvalues,variouslyinterpreted,andeconomicnationalism,
includingprotectionism,andareanti-elitistinrhetoricandstyle.Thebestexampleofrecenttimesis
theOneNationParty,whicharoseinthelate1990s,fadedduringthe2000sasitwasbesetby
problemstypicalofsuchparties,andthensurprisinglyresurgedin2016.Unfortunately,the
administrationofthesurveyforthisstudyjustpre-datesthisresurgencesowewereunabletoclearly
capturesupportersofthisparty.WedidseeksupportersofKatter’sAustralianParty(KAP),aminor
partylargelybasedinthenorthofthestateofQueenslandandcentredaroundaformerNational
Partypolitician(BobKatter).Againunfortunately,atthetimeofthesurveysupportfortheKAPhad
declinedsomewhatandoursub-sampleistoosmallforvalidstatisticalanalysis,thoughwedonote
someindicationsofhowthissmallgroupdifferintheirresponsesfromotherparties.
Methods
Datawerecollectedinmid-2015fromtheresponsesof1450Australianstoanumberofsurvey
items.Theprimarypurposeofthatsurveywastoexploretheattitudesofruralandregional
Australianstoarangeofissuestoseewhat,ifany,characteristicsorattitudesaboutarangeofissues
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correlatetovotingintentionorattitudestootherissues.Threepolitical/policyissueswerechosen
fortheircurrency,prominenceandrelevance(tothesample)andlikelysalience.
Coalseamgasextractionisamajorpointofconflictinregionalareas.InAustralia,landholders
(includingfarmers)onlyhaverightstothetopsoilandunderneaththat,allmineralsandgasesare
deemedtobecommonwealth,managedbygovernments.Governmentscanallocateminingrights,
andlegalaccesstopropertytoexercisetheserightsoverrideslandholders’rightofexclusion.
Furthermore,establishinggaswellsinvolvesconsiderablelandscapechange,thereareconcerns
aboutwatershedcontaminationandthedevelopmentphaseofextractioncaninvolveaninfluxof
workers,whichleadstoconsiderableandsometimesunwelcomesocialchangeinregional
communities(PhelanandDawes2017;ShervalandHardiman,2014).Forpoliticalparties,ontheone
hand,CSGextractionbringsdevelopment,andespeciallyregionaldevelopment,androyaltiesfor
publicfinancebutontheother,thereisapotentialimpositiononruralpeoplewhoareimportant
constituentsfortheparties,especiallytheNationalParty.Wewouldthereforeexpecttosee
oppositiontoCSGacrosspoliticalparties.
WindfarmssofarhavemuchsmallerfootprintsthanCSGwells,buttheyareahighlyvisibleinsome
rurallandscapesandtherearelocalgroups,workingthroughnetworksandon-linecommunities(see
BotterillandCockfield2016),instrongoppositiontothesedevelopments.Inlinewithoverseas
studies(seeforexampleCowell2010;Wolsink2007a;2007b),Australianresearchershaveidentified
arangeofconcernsaboutwindfarms.Theseincludevisualimpacts,noise,healtheffects,community
divisionandimpactonpropertyvalues(AMRInteractive,2010;Halletal.2012;Hindmarsh2014).
Halletal.(2012)concludethereisahighlevelofbroadcommunitysupportforwindfarm
development,includingfromsomepotentiallyaffectedresidentsbutthereisalsoactiveopposition.
Thesedivisionsalsohavesomereflectioninthepoliticalparties,withtheLaborPartyandtheGreens
favouringhighertargetsandlevelsofsupportforrenewableenergywhiletheCoalitionpartieshave
struggledinternallywiththeissue.Some,oftenidentifiedasconservativesandcentringonformer
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PrimeMinisterTonyAbbott,wanttoreducesupportforrenewableenergyandrestrictwindfarm
construction,whileothersaremorefavourablydisposed.Wemightthereforeexpecttoseestronger
supportforwindfarmsamongstintendingLaborandGreensvotersandsomewhatlesssupportfrom
theCoalitionparties’supporters.
Statementsonattitudestoclimatechangewereincludedinthissurveyprimarilyasavariablethat
mightberelatedtoattitudestoCSGandwindfarms,howeverasabiophysicalphenomenonand
politicalissue,itisofconsiderableimportancetoregionalareasinitsownrightanditisinregional
areaswherethereisanotabledivideontheactualityofclimatechange(Buysetal.2012).The
projectionsforclimatechangeinAustraliasuggestareductioninrainfallincropproductionseasons
inmanyareas,areductionintheavailabilityofirrigationanddomesticwaterandaharsherclimate,
whichcouldcontributetoadversehealthoutcomesandaccelerateddepopulationinsomeareas.On
theotherhand,agricultureproducessignificantemissionsandsowouldbeaffectedbypoliciesto
curband/orincreasethecostofemissions(throughcarbontaxesorsimilar).Furthermore,Australia
isrelyingtoagreatextentonvegetationbasedsequestrationtomeetemissionsreductiontargets
andsorestrictinglandclearingand,thereforefarmers’propertyrights,canhelpwiththat.Aswith
windfarms,withthetwoissuescloselyrelated,thepoliticalpartiesdiverge.TheGreensfavour
strongactiontolimitemissionsandLaborgovernmentsdevelopedandintroduceda‘carbontax’,
whiletheCoalitionpartieshavestruggledwiththisissue.ThecurrentPrimeMinister(Malcolm
Turnbull)losthispositionasleaderoftheOpposition,largelyovernegotiatingwiththeLabor
Governmentofthetimetointroduceanemissionstradingscheme.Hissuccessor,TonyAbbott
oversawtherepealofLabor’scarbontaxandexpressedhisstrongsupportforthecoalindustry.
Turnbulliscurrentlynegotiatingforacompromisepositionofemissionstargetsthatwillnecessarily
butnotrequirerenewableenergytargets.Again,thereshouldbestrongsupportfromintending
LaborandespeciallyGreensvoters.
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Thesurveywasundertakenbyacommercialpollingfirm,specialisinginruralandregionalopinion
researchandusingasamplingframetoachieveageographicaldistributionacrossstatesandregions
andincludingarangeofages.Twothirdsofrespondentsliveinruralorregionalareas,andthe
remainingthirdliveinthecitiesofCanberra,Sydney,Melbourne,Brisbane,Adelaide,Darwin,Perth
andHobart.The‘urban’thirdwereincludedforcomparativepurposes.Thegenderdistributionwas
49%maleand51%female,reflectingtheAustralianpopulationdistribution(ABS2016).
Eight‘corepoliticalvalues’,adaptedfromSchwartzetal(2010)wereassessedbyaskingrespondents
toindicatehowmuchtheyagreedordisagreedwitheightstatements.Thisisonequestionforeach
oftheeightpoliticalvalues,whereasSchwartzetalusedasetofseveralquestionsforeachvalueand
thencreatedindicesforthoseforfurtheranalysis.Thisstudywasnecessarilyrestrictedbythesizeof
thequestionnaireandourambitionatthisstagewastoseeiftherewassomethinginthedatato
warrantmorecomprehensiveanalyses.Responseswererecordedonaseven-pointLikert-typescale
rangingfromstronglydisagree(=1)tostronglyagree(=7).Eachitem,itsmeanscoreandstandard
deviationareshowninTable1.
Table1:RuralValuesResearchsurveyrespondents’levelofagreementwithdifferentvaluestatements
Personalvalues‘quadrant’association1
PoliticalValue Surveyitem Mean
Std.Dev.
ConservationToSelf-enhancement
Traditionalmorality(TM)
Itisimportanttodefendourtraditionalreligiousandmoralvalues 5.39 1.35
Patriotism2(P) Itisunpatriotictocriticisethiscountry 4.33 1.75
Law&order(LO)TheGovernmenthasadutytolimitindividualfreedomssoastomaintainsecurity
4.32 1.56
Foreignmilitaryintervention(FMI)
Australiashouldjoinotherdemocraticnationsinsendingtroopstofightdangerousregimes
3.88 1.59
Freeenterprise(FE)Thereshouldbemoreincentivesforindividualinitiativeevenifthisreducesequalityinthedistributionofwealth
4.33 1.29
Self-transcendence Civilliberties(CL) Itisimportanttorespectthefreedomof
individualstobelievewhatevertheywant 5.20 1.35
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ToOpennesstochange
Equality(E)Ifpeopleweretreatedmoreequallyinthiscountry,manyofourproblemswouldgoaway
4.47 1.59
Acceptingimmigration(AI)
MostpeoplewhocometoliveherefromothercountriesmakeAustraliaabetterplacetolive
4.35 1.53
1FromSchwartzetal2010,p440.2Schwartzetalusetheterm‘blindpatriotism’butwepreferthemoreneutraldescriptor.
Votingintentionswerederivedfromthequestion:IftherewasafederalelectionheldnextSaturday,
whowouldyouvotefor’.RespondentswereabletoselectfromthelistofpartiesinTable2,which
alsoshowsthenumberandpercentageofrespondentswhoselectedeachparty.Votingintentions
differedbystate.InQueenslandandtheNorthernTerritorytherearepartiesfromamalgamationsof
theLiberalandNationalparties,ortheirforerunners,withtheLiberalNationalParty(LNP)in
QueenslandandCountryLiberalParty(CLPintheNorthernTerritory.IfLNPandCLPcandidatesare
electedinnationalelections,theythenalignwitheithertheNationalorLiberalpartiesinthe
AustralianParliament.Theiralignmentisgenerallyknownduringelectioncampaignsbutnot
necessarilywellinadvanceofthat,aswasthecasewiththetimingofthissurvey.
Table2VotingintentionsofRuralValuesResearchsurveyrespondents
IfaFederalelectionwereheldnextSaturday,whowouldyouvotefor? n %LaborParty 454 31.31LiberalParty 307 21.17Greens 137 9.45NationalParty 68 4.69LiberalNationalParty(Queenslandamalgamatedparty) 78 5.38CountryLiberalParty(NorthernTerritoryamalgamatedparty 37 2.55Katter’sAustraliaParty 23 1.59Other 346 23.86Total 1,450 100
Ouranalysiswasfurthercomplicatedassomepartiesdonotcontestall,orevenmost,seats.The
LiberalNationalPartyonlyruncandidatesinQueenslandandtheCountryLiberalPartyonlyrun
candidatesintheNorthernTerritory,whereastheNationalPartyandKatter’sAustraliaPartyonly
runcandidatesinselectedseats.Assuch,norespondentwouldhavehadtheoptionofvotingforall
ofthepartieslisted,and,formany,theLaborParty,theLiberalParty,andtheGreenswouldhave
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beenthelistedpartiesforwhichtheycouldvote.Thedatasetincludedalargeminorityof
respondents(23.86%)thatindicatedtheywouldvotefor‘other’orwhodeclinedtostatea
preferenceandtheseareexcludedfromtheanalysis.
Analyticapproach
WebeganouranalysisbyconsideringtwohypothesesfromSchwartzel(2010).
• Valuingfreeenterprise,lawandorder,traditionalmorality,(blind)patriotism,andmilitary
interventionleadtovotingforthecentre-right.
• Valuingequality,civilliberties,andacceptingimmigrantsleadtovotingforthecentre-left
(Schwartzetal.,2010,431–432).
Wecreatedtwonewvariablesinwhichrespondentsweregroupedbasedontheirstatedvoting
intention.Thecentre-leftgroupcomprisedrespondentswhostatedthattheywouldvoteforthe
LaborPartyortheGreens.Thecentre-rightgroupcomprisedrespondentswhostatedtheywould
votefortheLiberalParty,theNationalParty,theLiberalNationalParty,andtheCountryLiberal
Party.TheKatterPartywasleftoutofthisfirstanalysisbecauseofthesmallnumberofrespondents
andbecauseofasuppositionthatthepartyisnoteasilyclassifiedinlefttorightterms.Wethen
performedaseriesoflogisticregressionswherevotingintentionwasthedependentvariable.
Predictorvariablesweretheeight‘corepoliticalvalues’andthecompositevariablesfromprincipal
componentsanalysis.Wealsocontrolledforageandgender.
Thesecondstagewastoexaminedifferencesamongstrespondentsbasedontheirintentiontovote
forparticularpartiesagainsttheresponsestothevaluesquestions.Wecomparedthemeanratings
(withANOVA)forresponsestoeachoftheitems,sortedaccordingtovotingintention.Thethird
stagewastoanalysevotingintentionagainstattitudesoneachofthepolicy/politicalissues.There
weremultiplequestionsforeachoftheissues,10forwindfarms,eightforCSGandfourforclimate
change,soaPrincipalComponentAnalysis(PCA)withvarimaxrotationwasundertaken(seetables
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A1,A2andA3inAdditionalTablesformoredetail).Theresultingfactorloadingswerethenusedto
includeitemsinonedimensionforeachtopic,definedasOppositiontocoalseamgas,Oppositionto
windfarmsandConcernaboutclimatechange.QuestionswhichloadedsufficientlyonthePCS(>0.7)
weresummedtocreateanindexforeachofthosethemesandtotalratingsforthosewere
computedagainstvotingintention.Again,meanratings(withANOVA)werecomputed.Thefinal
stepwastocompareresponsestothepoliticalvaluesitemswiththosetothethreeissues(indices).
Thiswasdonebyrunninglinearregressionsforeachitemagainstthecompositeissuesindices.That
isforexample,seeinghowhigherratingsforfreeenterprisemightcorrelatetoratingsforopposition
towindfarmsandCSGandconcernaboutclimatechange.
Results
Fortheaggregatedleft-rightmodelling,responsestostatementsareasexpectedwitharight
orientationbeingpositivelyassociatedwithgreatersupportforitemsrepresentingTraditional
morality,LawandorderandPatriotism(Table1).Foreignmilitaryinterventionalsoshoweda
positivedirectionbuttheresultwasnotsignificant.Therightorientationwasnegativeinrelationto
theCivillibertiesitembuttheresultwasnotsignificant.Aleftorientationwaspositivelyassociated
withhigherratingsonEqualityandnegativelyassociatedwithFreeenterpriseresponses.Therewas
nodifferencebetweenthegroupsonAcceptingimmigration.
Table3:Regressiontableforcentre-leftandcentreright
Variable Leftpartymodel RightpartymodelTraditionalmorality -0.14***(0.04) 0.19***(0.05)Patriotism -0.04(0.04) 0.08*(0.04)Law&order -0.09*(0.04) 0.12**(0.04)Foreignmilitaryintervention 0.02(0.04) 0.06(0.04)Freeenterprise -0.17***(0.04) 0.18***(0.05)Civilliberties 0.00(0.05) -0.06(0.05)Equality 0.15***(0.04) -0.16***(0.04)Acceptingimmigration 0.03(0.04) 0.07(0.04)Gender(female=1) 0.08(0.11) -0.29*(0.12)Agegroup -0.03(0.02) 0.05*(0.02)
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Constant 0.83*(0.38) -3.14***(0.42)PseudoR2 0.05 0.08N 1450 1450
*p<0.05,**p<0.01,***p<0.001.
Theresultsfortheanalysisofvaluesandeachpoliticalpartydoshowsomeadditionaldifferences
(Table4).Therearestatisticallysignificantdifferencesamongstintendingvotersbyparty,onall
items.Asexpected,theintendingvotersforCoalitionpartiestendtoclusterintheirmeanresponses.
TheytendtobehigheronLawandorder,Traditionalmorality,Patriotism,Foreignmilitary
interventionandFreeenterprise,andloweronCivilliberties,EqualityandAcceptingimmigration.
Therearehintsofregionaldifferences,withtheLNP(basedinQueensland)beingontheextreme
endofthisspectrumonanumberofissues,notablyTraditionalmoralityandEquality.TheCLP
respondentsarehighonFreeenterprisebutalsorelativelyhighonCivillibertiesandAccepting
immigration.TheNorthernTerritoryishighlymulti-cultural,withthehighestproportionofFirst
PeoplesandstrongeconomicandculturalinfluencesfromsoutheastAsia.
TheKAPcohortseemtocross‘quadrants’tosomeextent,beingrelativelyhighonTraditional
moralityandlowonCivillibertiesandAcceptingimmigration,asmightbeexpected,butlowonLaw
andorderandFreeenterprise.TheintendingGreensvotersaremostdifferent,tothoseintendingto
voteforotherparties,onallitems.
Table4:Meanratingsforpoliticalvaluesitemsbyparty
Shadinghighlightswherepartieshavethehigherorlowerratings.ThefullstatisticsareinTableA4inAdditionalTables.
PoliticalParty LO TM P FMI FE CL E AI
LNP 4.9 6.0 4.9 4.3 4.6 4.8 3.9 4.3
LiberalParty 4.8 5.6 4.5 4.3 4.7 5.0 4.3 4.6
CLP 4.8 5.3 4.1 4.3 5.3 5.4 4.6 5.0
NationalParty 4.4 5.6 4.4 3.9 4.6 5.4 4.6 4.4
LaborParty 4.2 5.1 4.1 3.9 4.3 5.1 4.7 4.6
KAP 3.6 5.5 4.2 3.8 4.4 4.8 4.7 3.9
Greens 3.4 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.8 5.6 5.2 5.4
17
Similarly,theGreensaremostdifferentonthepolicyissues(Figure2),withthehighestmeanratingsforOppositiontoCSGandConcernaboutclimatechangeandthelowestratingforOppositiontowindfarms,thoughthemeanisjustover15ona21pointscalesoatleastsomeofthemstillhavesomeissueswithsuchdevelopments.
Figure2:MeanratingsforattitudestopolicyissuesbyvotingintentionSeeTableA5forregressionstatistics.Allweresignificant,thoughthecontributionstoexplainingvariancesinresponsesareweak.
Finally,therearealsocorrelationsbetweentheresponsestothepoliticalvaluesitemsandthethree
issues(Table5).Asmightbeexpected,completingthetriangleofvalues,partypreferenceand
issues,thereissomeassociationbetweenpoliticalvaluesandparticularissues.
Oppositiontowindfarmshassomethingofaconservationvaluesorientation,withpositive
correlationstoPatriotism,LawandorderandFreeenterprise.Ontheotherhand,thereisanegative
correlationtoAcceptingimmigration(openness),thatis,thosewithahigherratingonthisvaluetend
tobemoreinfavourofwindfarms.Conversely,concernaboutclimatechangeisnegatively
correlatedtoPatriotism,TraditionalmoralityandFreeenterprise.Concernaboutclimatechangeis
correlatedtoEqualityandAcceptingimmigration.Ontheotherhand,thepoliticalambiguityforthe
Coalitionmayalsohavesomereflectionamongstthissampleofrespondents.OppositiontoCSGis
correlatedtotheitemsinaverysimilarwaytoConcernaboutclimatechange,butitisalsopositively
correlatedtosupportforTraditionalmorality,whichmayreflectruralsentiment.Inaddition,the
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
LNP LiberalParty KatterParty CLP NationalParty LaborParty Greens
Meanratin
gbyinde
x
ConcernaboutclimatechangePCA OppositiontoCSGPCA Oppositiontowindfarms
18
responsesonOppositiontoCSGarenotnormallydistributed(skewedtothehigherend).Itisnotan
unpopularissueamongstthissample.
Table5:Valuesstatementsandattitudestoissues
Implicationsforfurtherresearch
Thesedataandanalysesaresofarquitelimited.Onelimitingfactormaybetheuseofjustoneitem
perpoliticalvalueasanindicatorofthatvalue.Thefindingofsignificant,thoughweak,relationships,
andSchwartzetal.’s(2010)findingssuggestitisworthpursuingfurtherworkwithsetsofquestions
aroundeachvaluetoseeifwecanincreasethevalidityofmodelledrelationships.Anotherreasonfor
thelowexplanatorypowermaybethedistributionsofresponses.Aquickreviewofboxplotsof
responsesonvaluesandissuesbyvotingintention,showsawidedistribution.Thatis,forexample,
wehaveplentyofintendingLaborvoterswithresponsesthatlooklikethosethatmightbeexpected
Valuesitems
Sig.
OppositiontoCSG
Oppositiontowindfarms
Concernaboutclimate
change
Itisimportanttodefendourtraditionalreligiousandmoralvalues. (+)0.000** (-)0.005*
Itisunpatriotictocriticisethiscountry. (+)0.000** (-)0.001*
TheGovernmenthasadutytolimitindividualfreedomssoastomaintainsecurity. (-)0.035* (+)0.002*
Australiashouldjoinotherdemocraticnationsinsendingtroopstofightdangerousregimes. (+)0.011*
Thereshouldbemoreincentivesforindividualinitiativeevenifthisreducesequalityinthedistributionofwealth.Itisimportanttorespectthefreedomofindividualstobelievewhatevertheywant.
(-)0.019* (+)0.000** (-)0.028*
Ifpeopleweretreatedmoreequallyinthiscountry,manyofourproblemswouldgoaway. .(+)0.012* (+)0.000**
MostpeoplewhocometoliveherefromothercountriesmakeAustraliaabetterplacetolive. (+)0.000** (-)0.005* (+)0.000**
19
ofconservativevotersandviceversa.NorareNationalPartyvotersquiteasclusteredonissuesas
mightbeexpected.Hence,therearelikelytobefactorsotherthanvaluesdeterminingvoting
intention,whichcouldbemorefullyexplored,evenfromthesedata.
Theseresultssuggestthatitmaybepossibletousevaluesasmeansofdifferentiatingamongstparty
support.Avaluesanalysiscanshowmoreofawheeleffect,asinFigure3.Thiswouldalsoenable
comparisonofpartysupporters’valuesacrosscountries.Thequestionthough,is:doesthisprovide
anythingmoreusefulthanaslightlydeeperlookatideologicalorientation?Theuseoftheleft-right
spectrumasaheuristicandtheapplicationofleft/rightlabels,bothperjorativelyandapprovingly,
arewidespread.Itisalsosuggestedbytheseresultsthatthevaluesdoclusteraroundparty
preference.So,eventhoughLawandorderandTraditionalmorality,presumablydenotingsocial
conservatism,forexample,couldbearguedtobeonadifferentideologicalaxistoFreeenterprise
(liberalism),theyseemtoconflatewithinatleastmanyindividuals.
Figure3:Responsesvaluesandissuesbyvotingintention(GreensandLiberalNationalParty
Perhapsaproductiveareaofworkmightbetoanalyseissuesbythevaluesorientationormix,which
couldthengivegreaterdepthtotheanalysisofhowandwhyparticularpartiesrespondtoissues.
Fromthiswork,weseethatOppositiontowindfarmsappearstohaveasocialconservativeand
liberalorientation.Thisissomewhatlogicalaswindfarmsaffectatraditionalactivity(farming)and
Law&Order
TraditionalMorality
Patriotism
ForeignMilitaryIntervention
FreeEnterprise
CivilLiberties
Equality
Acceptingimmigrants
LiberalNationalParty Greens
20
traditional(rural)communities.Inaddition,theyareeffectivelysubsidised(againstfreeenterprise).
Wecanfurtherexaminethisbylookingatparticularstatementsrelatedtowindfarmsforthenext
versionofthispaper.WithOppositiontoCSGweseeindicatorsofhowenvironmentalandfarming
groupsmightbeabletoworktogetherinopposingsuchdevelopments.Thisisanissuethatis
universalist(globalclimatechange)butalsoaboutdisruptionoffarmingandruralcommunities.
Concernaboutclimatechangeisontheotherhandalsouniversalist,butacceptingclimatechange
impliesacceptingdisruptiontofarmingandtheeconomymoregenerally.While,suchvaluescould
alsobedeterminedfromcasestudiesofissueactivism,thispreliminaryworkdoesextendthework
onvaluesandsuggeststhepotentialforfurtherwork.
21
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24
Additionaltables
TableA1:PrincipalComponentAnalysisforwindenergyitems
Component
1 2
Windfarmswillneverbeeconomicallyviable. .799* -.059Australianeedswindfarmstohelpmeetitsenergyneeds. -.644 .562Windfarmslookwrongonfarmland. .863* .009Windfarmsupsetthephysicalwellbeingofpeoplelivingnearthem. .822* .201Windfarmsmakeanunpleasantnoise. .831* .209Buildingwindfarmsisanoisyanddirtyprocess. .786* .167Windfarmsareaneyesore. .870* -.018Windfarmslooknicerthanminesorcoal-firedpowerstations. -.551 .677Windfarmscausecommunitydivisioninruralareas. .624 .429Australianeedscoalseamgastohelpmeetitsenergyneeds. .275 .191
*UsedtocreateOppositiontowindfarmsindex
TableA2:PrincipalComponentAnalysisforcoalseamgasitemsError!Notavalidlink.*UsedtocreateOppositiontocoalseamgasindex
ComponentItem 1 2Coalseamgascausescommunitydivisioninruralareas. .729* .282Establishingcoalseamgasoperationsisnoisyanddirty. .836* .044Coalseamgaswellsareaneyesore. .825* .006Coalseamgaswellslookwrongonfarmland. .773* .182Coalseamgaswellslooknicerthanwindfarms. -.536 .548Coalseamgaswellslooknicerthanminesorcoal-firedpowerstations. -.327 .836Coalseamgascontaminatesthewatertable. .859* .137Coalseamgascausesdangerousgasestoescapeintotheairwebreathe. .838* .074
*UsedtocreateOppositiontocoalseamgasindex
TableA3:PrincipalComponentAnalysisforConcernaboutclimatechange
Component1Peoplehavebeenmadetoworryneedlesslyaboutclimatechange. -.812*Theworldwillstartcoolingassoonasgreenhousegasemissionsstoprising. .411Climatechangewillmakelifemoredifficultinthefuture. .895*Iamworriedaboutclimatechange. .912*
*Itemsaggregatedforregressions
25
TableA4:ANOVAforvotingintentionpoliticalvaluesitems
SumofSquares df Mean
Square F Sig.
TheGovernmenthasadutytolimitindividualfreedomssoastomaintainsecurity.
BetweenGroups 232.979 7 33.283 13.374 .000
WithinGroups 3588.605 1442 2.489
Total 3821.583 1449
Itisimportanttodefendourtraditionalreligiousandmoralvalues.
BetweenGroups 260.533 7 37.219 17.046 .000
WithinGroups 3148.563 1442 2.183
Total 3409.096 1449 Ifpeopleweretreatedmoreequallyinthiscountry,manyofourproblemswouldgoaway.
BetweenGroups 129.721 7 18.532 7.156 .000
WithinGroups 3734.175 1442 2.590
Total 3863.896 1449
Australiashouldjoinotherdemocraticnationsinsendingtroopstofightdangerousregimes.
BetweenGroups 121.464 7 17.352 6.569 .000
WithinGroups 3809.039 1442 2.641
Total 3930.503 1449 Thereshouldbemoreincentivesforindividualinitiativeevenifthisreducesequalityinthedistributionofwealth.
BetweenGroups 117.767 7 16.824 9.476 .000
WithinGroups 2560.097 1442 1.775
Total 2677.865 1449
Itisimportanttorespectthefreedomofindividualstobelievewhatevertheywant.
BetweenGroups 54.290 7 7.756 4.049 .000
WithinGroups 2762.279 1442 1.916
Total 2816.569 1449
Itisunpatriotictocriticisethiscountry.
BetweenGroups 253.162 7 36.166 11.712 .000WithinGroups 4453.000 1442 3.088
Total 4706.163 1449 MostpeoplewhocometoliveherefromothercountriesmakeAustraliaabetterplacetolive.
BetweenGroups 126.312 7 18.045 7.742 .000WithinGroups 3360.863 1442 2.331
Total 3487.175 1449
26
TableA5:ANOVAforVotingintentionandpolicyissueindices
Sum of Squares df Mean
Square F Sig.
Concern about climate change
Between Groups (Combined) 4785.712 7 683.673 38.100 .000
Within Groups 25875.185 1442 17.944 Total 30660.897 1449
Opposition to CSG
Between Groups (Combined) 1107.683 7 158.240 3.443 .001
Within Groups 66266.080 1442 45.954 Total 67373.763 1449
Opposition to wind farms
Between Groups (Combined) 6440.436 7 920.062 15.013 .000
Within Groups 88374.505 1442 61.286
Total 94814.941 1449
TableA6:Regressionmodelforvaluesitemsandconcernaboutclimatechange
Model Summary
Model R R
Square
Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.336a .113 .108 4.34449
Sum of
Squares df Mean
Square F Sig. Regression 3462.658 8 432.832 22.932 .000b
Residual 27198.238 1441 18.875
BStdError Beta t Sig.
(Constant) 13.364 .753 17.740 .000 The Government has a duty to limit individual freedoms so as to maintain security. -.121 .080 -.043 -1.521 .128
It is important to defend our traditional religious and moral values. -.235 .083 -.079 -2.824 .005
If people were treated more equally in this country, many of our problems would go away. .399 .077 .142 5.189 .000
Australia should join other democratic nations in sending troops to fight dangerous regimes. -.056 .074 -.020 -.753 .452
There should be more incentives for individual initiative even if this reduces equality in the distribution of wealth.
-.200 .091 -.059 -2.199 .028
It is important to respect the freedom of individuals to believe whatever they want. .074 .091 .023 .818 .414
It is unpatriotic to criticise this country. -.244 .072 -.096 -3.385 .001 Most people who come to live here from other countries make Australia a better place to live. .444 .085 .150 5.233 .000
27
TableA7:RegressionmodelforvaluesitemsandoppositiontowindfarmsANOVA
Model SumofSquares df MeanSquare F Sig.
1 Regression 8940.047 8 1117.506 18.752 .000b
Residual 85874.894 1441 59.594
Total 94814.941 1449
BStdError Beta t Sig.
(Constant) 15.114 1.339 11.291 .000 The Government has a duty to limit individual freedoms so as to maintain security. .434 .142 .087 3.069 .002
It is important to defend our traditional religious and moral values. .280 .148 .053 1.891 .059
If people were treated more equally in this country, many of our problems would go away. -.225 .137 -.046 -1.651 .099
Australia should join other democratic nations in sending troops to fight dangerous regimes. .335 .132 .068 2.539 .011
There should be more incentives for individual initiative even if this reduces equality in the distribution of wealth.
.585 .161 .098 3.623 .000
It is important to respect the freedom of individuals to believe whatever they want. -.233 .162 -.040 -1.438 .151
It is unpatriotic to criticise this country. .492 .128 .110 3.837 .000 Most people who come to live here from other countries make Australia a better place to live. -.422 .151 -.081 -2.796 .005
28
TableA8:Regressionmodelforvaluesitemsandoppositiontocoalseamgasextraction
Model R R Square Adjusted R
Square Std. Error of the Estimate
.206a .043 .037 6.69041
Sum of Squares df Mean
Square F Sig. Regression 2872.396 8 359.049 8.021 .000b
Residual 64501.367 1441 44.762 Total 67373.763 1449
BStdError Beta t Sig.
(Constant) 25.636 1.160 22.097 .000 The Government has a duty to limit individual freedoms so as to maintain security. -.259 .123 -.062 -2.114 .035
It is important to defend our traditional religious and moral values. .499 .128 .112 3.888 .000
If people were treated more equally in this country, many of our problems would go away. .299 .118 .071 2.523 .012
Australia should join other democratic nations in sending troops to fight dangerous regimes. -.134 .114 -.032 -1.177 .240
There should be more incentives for individual initiative even if this reduces equality in the distribution of wealth.
-.328 .140 -.065 -2.347 .019
It is important to respect the freedom of individuals to believe whatever they want. .171 .140 .035 1.221 .222
It is unpatriotic to criticise this country. -.060 .111 -.016 -.542 .588 Most people who come to live here from other countries make Australia a better place to live. .502 .131 .114 3.839 .000