3rd technical analysis training by mohamed elzayat
TRANSCRIPT
8/6/2019 3rd Technical Analysis Training by Mohamed Elzayat
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Relative strength curve
Entity x / Entity y
The curve is rising= entity x is outperforming y
The curve is declining= entity y isoutperforming x
Sectors analysis
262006
8 15 22 2 9 5 12February
1 9 2 6 5March
12 19 2 6 2April
9 16 2 3 30May
7 14 2 1 28 4June
11 18 2 5 2July
9 16 2 3 30 6August
13 2 0 2 7 3 10September
17 24 1 8October
1 5 22 2 9 5 1 2November
1 9 2 6 4 1 0 1 7December
24 3 1 72008
5000
10000
x10000
5000
10000
x10000
38003900
400041004200
43004400
450046004700
480049005000
38003900
400041004200
43004400
450046004700
480049005000
insurance sector
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Dubai general index
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10insurance sector compared with
dubai general index
8/6/2019 3rd Technical Analysis Training by Mohamed Elzayat
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262006
8 1 5 2 2 29 5 1 2February
1 9 2 6 5March
1 2 1 9 2 6 2April
9 1 6 23 3 0May
7 14 2 1 28 4June
1 1 1 8 2 5 2July
9 16 2 3 30 6August
1 3 20 2 7 3 1 0September
17 24 1 8October
1 5 22 2 9 5 1 2November
1 9 2 6 4 1 0 1 7December
2 4 3 1 72008
0000x100000 10000x100000
850090009500000005001000150020002500
300035004000
850090009500
100001050011000115001200012500
130001350014000
Real Estate & Construction Index
DFM.73 (13,890.17, 13,890.17, 13,890.17, 13,890.17, +137.280)
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Dubai general index
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50Real Estate & Construction Index
compared with Dubai general index
262006
8 15 22 2 9 5 12February
1 9 2 6 5March
1 2 1 9 2 6 2April
9 1 6 23 3 0May
7 14 2 1 28 4June
11 1 8 2 5 2July
9 16 2 3 30 6August
1 3 20 2 7 3 10September
17 24 1 8October
1 5 22 2 9 5 12November
1 9 2 6 4 1 0 1 7December
2 4 3 1 72008
20000x10000 20000x10000
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
Investment & Financial Services Index O
DFM.72 (8,370.51, 8,506.43, 8,347.55, 8,370.51, -135.920)
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Dubai general index
O
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
Investment & Financial Services Index
compared with dubai general indexO
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262006
8 1 5 22 2 9 5 1 2February
1 9 2 6 5March
1 2 1 9 2 6 2April
9 1 6 23 3 0May
7 14 2 1 28 4June
1 1 1 8 2 5 2July
9 16 2 3 30 6August
1 3 20 2 7 3 1 0September
17 24 1 8October
15 2 2 2 9 5 1 2November
1 9 2 6 4 1 0 1 7December
2 4 3 1 72008
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
Telecommunication Index
O
DFM.85 (1,187.70, 1,187.70, 1,187.70, 1,187.70, +42.0699)
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Dubai general index
O
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
Telecommunication Index compared
with dubai general index
O
Two sectors comparison
262006
8 1 5 22 2 9 5 12February
1 9 2 6 5March
1 2 1 9 2 6 2April
9 16 2 3 30May
7 14 2 1 28 4June
1 1 1 8 2 5 2July
9 16 2 3 30 6August
13 2 0 2 7 3 10September
17 24 1 8October
1 5 22 2 9 5 1 2November
1 9 2 6 4 1 0 1 7December
2 4 3 1 72008
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
Telecommunication Index
O
DFM.85 (1,187.70, 1,187.70, 1,187.70, 1,187.70, +42.0699)
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
1300013500
14000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
1300013500
14000
Real Estate & Construction Index
DFM.73 (13,890.17, 13,890.17, 13,890.17, 13,890.17, +137.280)
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
0.085
0.090
0.095
0.100
0.105
0.110
0.060
0.065
0.070
0.075
0.080
0.085
0.090
0.095
0.100
0.105
0.110
Telecommunication Index compared
with Real Estate & Construction Index
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S ep te mb er Oc to be r N ove mb er De ce mb er 2 00 7 Fe br ua ry M arc h A pr il M ay Ju ne J ul y A ug us t S ep te mb er Oc to be r No ve mb er D ece mb er 2 00 8
5000
0000
x10000
5000
10000
x10000
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
O
Du Stock
DU (Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Co (7.38000, 7.56000, 7.31000, 7.44000, +0.10000)
3500
4000
4500
5000
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6000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
O
Dubai general index
DFM General Index (6,069.14, 6,093.78, 5,989.93, 6,037.49, +9.33008)
0.001 0.001
O
DU stock compared with
Dubai general index
Relative Strength Comparative(DFM General Index) (0.0012323, +0.0000147)
27 3September
10 17 24 1October
8 16 2 2 29 5November
12 19 26 3December
10 17 24 312008
7
0.0185
0.0190
0.0195
0.0200
0.0205
0.0210
0.0215
0.0220
0.0225
0.0230
0.0235
0.0240
0.0245
0.0250
0.0255
SODIC versus CASE30
Relative Strength Comparative(CASE30) (0.0216337, -0.0004093)
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Normalized relative strength
-Relative strength for ranking purposes.
To know by how much did the stock outperform or under perform the market.
The scale has the one in the middle.
(Entity x / base value of x) / Entity y/basevalue of y at the same date).
OCIC versus CASE30
n J ul Aug Sep O ct N ov D e c 2 0 05 Feb M ar Apr M ay J u n J ul Aug Sep O c t N ov D e c 20 06 M ar Apr Ma y J u n J ul Au g Sep O c t N ov D ec 2 0 07 Feb M a r Ap r M ay J un J ul Aug Sep O c t N ov D e c 2 0
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x100
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ÇæÑÇÓßæã ááÇäÔÇÁ æÇáÕäÇÚÉ (564.980, 575.000, 563.500, 569.120, +9.62000)
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
Normalized RS for ocic versus
case30
Relative Strength Comparative(CASE30) (0.021562, +0.000147)
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Media versus case30
20032004 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2006 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20
6
7
8
9
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24
6
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P
ÇáãÕÑíÉ áãÏíäÉ ÇáÇäÊÇÌ ÇáÇÚáÇãí (11.8500, 11.8900, 11.5400, 11.5500, -0.15000)
500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500
100001050011000
500100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500
100001050011000
P
case30 rises 7.25 times since
june 2004
CASE30 (10,320.74, 10,476.64, 10,320.74, 10,469.78, +149.040)
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
P
Relative Strength Comparative(CASE30) (-0.010724, -0.000030)
Moving average
•5 day moving average=(Day1 price+Day2 price+day3price+day4 price+day5 price)/5.
•Smoothing trend•Simple crossover tactic ( buy when the price rises above
MA by two days or by a certain percentage(3-5%).
•Perform poorly during the trading range.
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ne11 18 25 2
July9 16 24 30 6
August13 20 27 3
September 10 17 24 1 8
October 16 22 29 5
November 12 19 26 3
December 10 17 24 31
20087
10000
15000
2000025000
30000
x10000010000
15000
2000025000
30000
x100000
7300
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10700
18 days SMA
Buy
Sell
Buy
4-9-2007
CASE30 (10,320.74, 10,476.64, 10,320.74, 10,469.78, +149.040), Moving Average (10,125.35)
19 26 5March
1 2 1 9 26 2April
1 0 16 2 3 30 7May
14 21 28 4June
11 18 25 2July
9 16 24 30 6August
13 2 0 2 7 3 10September
17 2 4 1 8October
16 22 29 5 12November
19 2 6 3 10December
17 31 72008
240
250
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buy 8-3-2007
sell
buy
ÇæÑÇÓßæã ááÇäÔÇÁ æÇáÕäÇÚÉ (564.980, 575.000, 563.500, 569.120, +9.62000)
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MA working poorly during trading range
25 2 9October
1 6 2 9 6 13November
2 0 27 4 1 1 18December
25 32007
1 5 2 2 2 9 5 1 2February
1 9 2 6 5March
1 2 1 9 2 6 2 1 0April
16 23 30 7May
1 4 2 1 2 8 4June
1 1 1 8 2 5 2July
9 1 6 24 3 0 6August
1 3 20 2 7 3 1 0 17September
2 4 1 8 1 6October
2 2 29 5 1 2November
1 9 26 3 1 0 17December
2 4 3 1 72008
7.27.37.47.57.67.77.87.98.08.18.28.38.48.58.6
8.78.88.99.09.19.29.39.49.59.69.79.89.9
10.010.110.210.310.410.510.610.710.810.911.011.111.211.311.411.511.611.711.811.912.012.112.212.312.412.512.612.712.812.9
Moving average work poorly during trading range
Many whpsaws
ÇáÚÑÈíÉ áÍáíÌ ÇáÇÞØÇä (8.76000, 8.89000, 8.76000, 8.76000, -0.02000)
Momentum
•Measure rate of ascent or descent of price change
•Momentum= price today-price n days ago
•Zero crossover •Overbought and oversold by visual inspection
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2 5 2 9October
1 6 2 9 6 1 3November
20 27 4 11 18December
25 32007
15 22 29 5 12February
19 26 5March
12 19 26 2 10April
16 23 30 7May
14 21 28 4June
11 18 25 2July
9 16 24 30 6August
13 20 27 3 10 17September
2 4 1 8 1 6October
22 29 5 12November
19 26 3 10 17December
24 31 72008
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260P
ÇáÓÇÏÓ ãä ÇßÊæÈÑ ááÊäãíå æÇáÇÓÊËãÇÑ (228.990, 229.800, 226.240, 226.500, -1.00000)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
P
mometum shows a weaknessbefore the price action
14 days momentum
2 5 2 9October
1 6 2 9 6 1 3November
2 0 27 4 1 1 18December
25 32007
1 5 2 2 2 9 5 1 2February
1 9 2 6 5March
1 2 1 9 2 6 2 1 0April
16 23 30 7May
1 4 2 1 2 8 4June
11 18 25 2July
9 1 6 24 3 0 6August
1 3 20 2 7 3 1 0 17September
2 4 1 8 1 6October
2 2 29 5 1 2November
1 9 26 3 1 0 17December
2 4 3 1 72008
30
35
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65
ÇáãÌãæÚå ÇáãÇáíå åíÑãÓ ÇáÞÇÈÖå (63.8700, 64.7800, 63.2100, 63.8700, +0.76000)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
14 days momentumoverbought by visual inspection
oversold by visual inspection
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13r
20 2 7 4 11December
1 8 25 32007
15 22 29 5 12February
19 26 5March
12 19 26 2April
10 2June
9 16 24 30 6August
13 2 0 2 7 3 10September
17 24 1 8October
16 22 29 5 12November
19 26 3 10December
17 31 72008
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
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19.5
20.0
Pprice followed momentum's
weakness by 14 days
P
ÇáÈäß ÇáæØäí ááÊäãíÉ (18.8000, 18.9500, 18.5100, 18.6000, -0.14000)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
momentum tells us a lot of information
oversold by visual inspection
P
P
J un e J ul y Au gu st Se pt em be r O ct ob er N ov em be r D ec em be r 2 00 7 F eb ru ar y M ar ch A pr il Ma y J un e J uly A ug us t Se pt em be r O ct ob er N ov em be r De ce mb er 2 00 8
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
CASE30 (10,320.74, 10,476.64, 10,320.74, 10,469.78, +149.040)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
filtering system
Overbought and over sold area
by visual inspection
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MACD
•Main line = 12 days exponential moving average – 26days exponential moving average .
•Signal line = 9 days exponential moving average of themain line.
A pr il M ay J un e J ul y A ug us t S ep te mb er Oc to be r N ov em be r D ec em be r 2 00 7 F eb ru ar y M ar ch A pr il M ay J un e J ul y A ug us t S ep te mb er O ct ob er N ov em be r D ec em be r 20 08
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
P12-26 EMA
CASE30 (10,320.74, 10,476.64, 10,320.74, 10,469.78, +149.040)
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
P
downside zero crossover means
12 days EMA < 26 days EMA
MACD (221.487)
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April May June July August September November 2006 February April May June July August September November 2007 February April May June July August September November 200
15
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25
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125ÇáÚÒ áÕäÇÚÉ ÍÏíÏ ÇáÊÓáíÍ (61.8300, 63.0000, 61.2000, 62.5200, +1.51000)
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
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10
strong buy signal
extreme oversold
Sell
Sell
SellSell
BuyBuy
MACD (0.82376)
25 32006
8 15 22 2 9 5 12February
1 9 26 5March
1 2 1 9 2 6 2 1 0April
16 23 30 7May
1 4 2 1 2 8 4June
1 1 1 8 2 5 2July
9 1 6 24 30 6August
13 2 0 27 3 10September
17 2 4 1 8October
1 6 2 2 2 9 5 1 2November
1 9 26 3 10December
17 31 72008
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
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1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
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1.85
1.90
O
Buy
ÇáÚÑÝÉ ááãäÓæÌÇÊ (1.75000, 1.80000, 1.74000, 1.80000, +0.04000)
-0.020
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
0.045
0.050
0.055
0.060
Buy
Sell
O
Buy
Sell
zero line works as a support level overbought and over sold areasdetrmined by visual inspection
MACD (0.001774)
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MACD Tactics
•Buy on the crossover between the main line and thesignal line to the upside and sell on reverse.
•Better buy or sell signals come from extreme overboughtor oversold areas.
ecember 2006 February March Apr il May June July August September October NovemberDecember2007 February March April May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecember 200
6
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O
price followed MACD trend line's violation
by almost 20 days
ÇáÚÒ ááÓíÑÇãíß æ ÇáÈæÑÓáíä - ÇáÌæåÑå (17.1100, 17.6000, 17.0000, 17.5000, +0.46000)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Better buy signal
Better sell signal
using trend lines for more confirmation
O
MACD (0.59882)
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MACD histogram
•Vertical bars that show the difference between the twoMACD lines.
•It has a zero midline.
•Spot the widening and narrowing between the twoMACD line.
•Histogram bars starts to decline while it has been abovezero line = weakness and vice versa.
•It provides early warning. •It used mainly for spotting early exit signals from existingpositions.
J ul y A ug us t S ep te mb er O ct ob er No ve mb er D ec em be r 2 00 7 F eb ru ar y M ar ch A pr il M ay J un e J ul y A ug us t S ep te mb er O ct ob er N ov em be r D ec em be r 2 00 8
7
89
10
11
1213
14
15
16
1718ÇáÚÒ ááÓíÑÇãíß æ ÇáÈæÑÓáíä - ÇáÌæåÑå (17.1100, 17.6000, 17.0000, 17.5000, +0.46000)
-1.2-1.1-1.0-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.6
0.70.80.9
O
re cross over between the two MACD line
occures ofter many days
MACD (0.59882)
-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.60
two MACD lines are narrowingO
PS MACD Histogram (0.08063, 0.00000)
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Using MACD with another oscillator
•Use the MACD to get a buy or sell signal whilestochastic oscillators for timing purpose.
•
13ber
2 0 27 4 1 1December
18 25 32007
1 5 2 2 2 9 5 1 2February
19 26 5March
12 19 26 2 10April
16 23 30 7May
14 21 28 4June
11 18 25 2July
9 1 6 24 30 6August
1 3 20 2 7 3 1 0 17September
2 4 1 8 1 6October
2 2 29 5 1 2November
1 9 26 3 1 0December
17 3 1 72008
8.08.59.09.5
10.010.511.011.512.012.513.0
13.514.014.515.015.516.016.517.017.518.0ÇáÚÒ ááÓíÑÇãíß æ ÇáÈæÑÓáíä - ÇáÌæåÑå (17.1100, 17.6000, 17.0000, 17.5000, +0.46000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Actual entry timingO
O
O
P P Psell
buy
Stochastic Oscillator (90.1639)
-0.6-0.5-0.4
-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7
O
O
Psell
buy
buy
MACD (0.59882)
8/6/2019 3rd Technical Analysis Training by Mohamed Elzayat
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13mber
2 0 27 4 1 1December
18 25 32007
1 5 2 2 2 9 5 1 2February
1 9 2 6 5March
12 19 26 2 10April
16 23 30 7May
1 4 2 1 2 8 4June
11 18 25 2July
9 1 6 24 30 6August
1 3 20 2 7 3 1 0 17September
2 4 1 8 1 6October
2 2 29 5 1 2November
1 9 26 3 1 0December
17 31 72008
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
Buy
O
O
CASE30 (10,320.74, 10,476.64, 10,320.74, 10,469.78, +149.040)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
O
OBuy
Buy
Stochastic Oscillator (68.3846)
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
O
O
Buy
Buy
MACD (221.487)