4 financial planning and forecasting ©2006 thomson/south-western
TRANSCRIPT
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Financial Planning and Forecasting
©2006 Thomson/South-Western
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Introduction
This chapter discusses techniques for forecasting a company’s future cash flows and need for funds.
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Strategic and Operational Planning Strategic planning is long-range in nature
and deals with the overall direction of the firm.
Operational planning serves as a blueprint for detailing the resources needed to meet the strategic goals.
Financial forecasting is an important component of operational planning!
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Corporate Planning
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The Concept of Cash Flow
Reported net income can be modified to produce a measure of after-tax cash flow from current operations to pay for:
1. Capital expenditures
2. Dividends
3. Retirement of debt
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Computing After-tax Cash FlowAfter-tax cash flow =
Earnings after taxes + Depreciation expense
+ Deferred Taxes
Note—Net income produces a measure of cash flow when it is adjusted for non-cash expenses!
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What are Non-cash Expenses?Depreciation is a non-cash expense because
it represents an allocation of the original cost of an asset to a particular year, not a cash outlay.
Deferred taxes is a non-cash expense because it represents the difference between actual taxes paid and the tax expense reported on the income statement.
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Example of After-tax Cash Flow Ellwood Appliance Company has net
income of $12 million, on a depreciation expense of $10 million and deferred taxes of $800,000.
After-tax cash flow for the company is computed as:
$12.0 + 10.0 + 0.80 = $22.8 million
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Forecasting Methods
Percent of sales
Cash budgets
Pro forma statement of cash flow
Computerized financial forecasting
models
Forecasting with financial ratios
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Percent of Sales Forecasting
Relies on a forecast of sales Obtains estimates of variables as a percent of sales
Forecasted Current
Liability Increases–
Forecasted Asset
Increases=
TotalFinancing
Needed
Tied to a sales increase
Dividends–Forecasted
EAT=
Increased Retained Earnings
Portion of financing needed internally
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Additional Financing Needed The difference between the total financing
needed and the internal financing provided:
Additional Financing
Needed=
External
[ A/S(ΔS) – CL/S(ΔS) ] – [EAT – D]
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Cash Budgeting A financial plan Projects receipts and disbursements over
future periods of time. Receipts on credit sales lag projected sales. Payments for purchases depend on
How much the purchase precedes the sale Credit terms
Other scheduled receipts and disbursements Long-term loans Capital expenditures Dividend payments Wages Salaries Rent…
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Pro Forma Statement of Cash Flows
Measures the increases (and decreases) in cash and cash equivalents CFs expected from operations CFs expected from investing activities CFs expected from financing activities
Add cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of year
Sums up to expected cash and cash equivalents at the end of year
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Cash Budgeting Tools
Check out the interactive tools for cash budgeting at this Web site:http://www.edgeonline.com/
Check out business planning with a cash flow forecast at this Web site:http://www.sb.gov.bc.ca
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Computerized Forecasting and Financial Planning Deterministic model
Uses single-value forecasts of each financial variable
Probabilistic models Utilize probability distributions for input data
Optimization models Choose the optimal levels of some variables
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Forecasting with Financial Ratios
Forecasting bankruptcy with discriminant analysis
5 ratios Net working capital/Total assets Retained earnings/Total assets EBIT/Total assets Market value equity/Book value total debt Sales/Total assets