4 th amgp/aapg international conference veracruz, mexico invited address: november 6, 2001

Scott W. Tinker (2001)

BureauofEconomic

Geology

4th AMGP/AAPG International ConferenceVeracruz, Mexico

Invited Address: November 6, 2001

Fractures, Salt, Seismic and Ice: Exploiting New Technologies for

America’s Natural Gas Energy Future

Scott W. TinkerBureau of Economic Geology

The University of Texas at Austin


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Acknowledgments

• AMGP/AAPG

• BEG Scientists and Staff

• Dr. Eugene M. Kim


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Session Themes

• Natural Gas Future

• Importance of Seismic

• Unconventional Sources

• Unconventional Approaches–Thin beds

–Anomalous pressure

–Geochemistry

–Rocks


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Three Main Points

Energy consumption in the United States and the world has followed a very predictable “decarbonization” trend. North American energy demand will be increasingly satisfied by natural gas.

Deep water and unconventional sources of natural gas will be major production components, and the southwest United States and Mexico will play a dominant role.

Research and technology such as fracture characterization and modeling, advanced seismic analysis, and salt modeling and prediction will improve exploration and development success in the Gulf of Mexico and for unconventional natural gas.


BureauofEconomic

Geology

The Natural Gas Future


BureauofEconomic

Geology

QAc9841c

after Hefner, 1993

NonsustainableEconomic Growth

SustainableEconomic Growth

Whaleoil

Petroleum oil

Methane

“City Gas”hydrogen

Oil and natural gasliquids

Coal

Solids Gases

Liquids

HydrogenWood

100

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tag

e o

f to

tal

mar

ket

Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

World Energy Consumption

WW

I

WW

II

Ara

b O

il E

mb

arg

o


BureauofEconomic

Geology

100

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tag

e o

f to

tal

mar

ket

QAc9841cYear1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Liquids

Solids

Gases, Nuclear,Renewables

1970Forecast

1970

U.S. Energy Consumption

1970Supply

Price

Policy

Technology


BureauofEconomic

Geology

100

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tag

e o

f to

tal

mar

ket

QAc9841c

EIA Production Data

Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Liquids

Solids

Gases, Nuclear,Renewables

SupplyPrice PolicyTechnology


Oil Price Gas Price

1970


BureauofEconomic

Geology

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

Liquids(Oil)

Solids(Wood, Coal)

Gases(Natural Gas, Hydrogen, Nuclear, Renewables)

1910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970

197519801985199019952000


Methane, Hydrogen(Nuclear, Renewables)•Efficiency•Economic Stability•National Security•Environmental Impact•Methane Abundant •Hydrogen Sustainable


BureauofEconomic

Geology

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

U.S

. Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

Btu

)

Coal, Wood, Waste

Oil

Gas, Nuclear, Renewables

Total Consumption

0.002.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Bb

o1 Quad ~ 1 Tcf

Btu ConsumptionEIA Forecast

EIA Historical Production Data

U.S. Energy Consumption 50-Year Forecast

Conservation


BureauofEconomic

Geology

EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)

L48 Conventional Onshore

Shallow Offshore

L48 Unconventional Onshore

Tight Gas, Shale Gas, CBM

Deepwater+Subsalt Offshore

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Year

An

nu

al

Na

tura

l G

as

Pro

du

cti

on

(B

cf)

U.S. Natural GasHistorical and Future Production

Demand


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Mexico Gas Production 2001 - 2010 (bcfd)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Investment Plans

BaseCantarell BurgosGrijalva Delta

Demand

Source: A. Guzman, 2001, HGS PEMEX E&P Planning

3.5 Tcf/yr


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Natural Gas Production:Regions and Types


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Production (1998)

Total US(Tcf)

TotalNorth

America(Tcf)

Consumption (1998)

5 .8

0 .5

3 .4 1 3 .2

0 .9

0 .8

0 .1

1 .7

1 8 .4

2 6 .4

2 .5

3 .7

6 .44 .8

2 .9

2 .9

1 .3

2 1 .32 5 .0

Natural Gas

Source: A. Anderson/Cambridge Energy Research Assoc.


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Res

erve

s (B

cf)

Unconventional versus Conventional Gas Reserves

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Conventional

Unconventional

Southwest United States Natural Gas Resources

Data Source: National Petroleum Council, 1999


BureauofEconomic

Geology

“Unconventional” Gas“Unconventional” Gas

Tight (Low Permeability)

Shale

Coalbed Methane

Deep (>15,000 ft)

Subsalt

Gas Hydrates

Ultra Deep Water


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Geology

Impact of Natural Gas Research

Tight Gas

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Bcf

GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database. DOE personal communication.

DOE

GRI

Federal Credit for Unconventional Gas

State of Texas Tight Gas Incentives


BureauofEconomic

Geology

600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9715c

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE TIGHT GAS BASINS(Technically Recoverable Resources)

Data: NPC (2000), * Based on estimates of NPC (1993), San Juan Basin tight gas resource included with oil field reserve appreciation and new fields in NPC (2000)

Rocky MountainForeland(13.7 Tcf)

Midcontinent(16.9 Tcf)

Arkla-Tex(29.8 Tcf)

Appalachian(18.3 Tcf)

Permian Basin(19.5 Tcf)

Texas GulfOnshore(9.1 Tcf)

San Juan(5.6 Tcf)*


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Geology

Southwest Region

Texas Gulf Coast Onshore

• High-permeability gas production

• Tight gas development, especially along the Wilcox Lobo trend

• Increase in drilling activity due to smaller reservoirs

Unconventional Gas Production in Texas Gulf Coast Basin Onshore

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Pro

du

ctio

n (B

cf)

Tight Gas



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Geology

• Fruitland coalbed methane formation

• Mesa Verde tight gas

• Drilling increase due to denser spacing Fruitland and Mesa Verde

Unconventional Gas Production in San Juan Basin

0

500

1,000

1,500

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bcf

)

Tight Gas

Coal Bed Methane


Southwest Region

San Juan Basin


BureauofEconomic

Geology

• Deep and tight gas resources in Canyon Sand, Abo, and Morrow

Unconventional Gas Production in Permian Basin

0

100

200

300

400

500

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bcf

)

Tight Gas


Southwest Region

Permian Basin


BureauofEconomic

Geology

• Conventional associated

• Unconventional from tight gas and Devonian shale

Unconventional Gas Production in Arkla-East Texas

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Pro

du

cti

on

(B

cf)

Tight Gas

Devonian Shale


Southwest Region

Arkla-East Texas


BureauofEconomic

Geology

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

1980 1985 1990 1995

Bcf

Impact of Natural Gas Research Shale Gas


DOE(1976-1992)

GRI


BureauofEconomic

Geology

600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9712c

Ft. WorthBarnett Shale

(7.2 Tcf)

IllinoisNew Albany

(2.9 Tcf)Cincinnati

Arch(2.2 Tcf)


Data: NPC (2000)

Michigan Antrim(16.9 Tcf)

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEVONIAN SHALE BASINSTechnically Recoverable Resources


BureauofEconomic

Geology

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1980 1985 1990 1995

Bcf

Impact of Natural Gas Research Coalbed Methane

DOE

GRI


$2

$1

Wel

lhea

d P

rice

($/

Mcf

)

Federal Alternative Fuels Production

Credit for Unconventional Gas


BureauofEconomic

Geology

600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9714c

Powder River(24.0 Tcf)

Hanna-Carbon (4.4 Tcf)Uinta & Piceance(5.5 Tcf)

San Juan(10.2 Tcf)

Northern Appalachianand PA Anthracite

(10.6 Tcf)

Black Warrior(4.4 Tcf)

Raton-Mesa (3.7 Tcf)

Alaska(Bering River, North Slope,

Chignik and Herendeen Bay)(57.0 Tcf)

SW Coal Region(5.8 Tcf)

Data: PGC (2001)

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE COALBED METHANE BASINS(Total Most Likely Resources)


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Geology

600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9713cData: PGC (2001)

MontanaFolded Belt

(5.2 Tcf)

Wind River(5.0 Tcf)

Greater Green River(8.4 Tcf)

San Joaquin(9.0 Tcf) Anadarko, Palo Duro

(17.7 Tcf)Permian(12.9 Tcf)


LA, MS, AL Salt(15.8 Tcf)

Louisiana Gulf Coast(14.5 Tcf)

TexasGulf Coast(14.3 Tcf)

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP (>15,000 FT) GAS BASINS(Total Most Likely Resources)


BureauofEconomic

Geology

600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9716c

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP-WATER GAS BASINS(Total Most Likely Resources)

Data: PGC (2001)

Pacific Slope(8.9 Tcf)

Louisiana Slope(12.4 Tcf)

Texas Slope(4.3 Tcf)

Eastern Gulf Slope(7.6 Tcf)Gulf of Mexico OCS

(47.7 Tcf)


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Geology

ProductiveProductive

1) Sabinas2) Burgos3) Veracruz4) Macuspana

NonproductiveNonproductive

Mid - High Potential Mid - High Potential

5) Sierra Madre Oriental6) Deep Gulf of México

Low PotentialLow Potential

7) California 8) Golfo de California 9) Chihuahua

77

88

99

11

22

55

66

4433

Natural Gas OpportunitiesNatural Gas Opportunitiesin Méxicoin México

Source: A. Guzman, 2001, HGS PEMEX E&P Planning


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Research & Technology:GOM and Unconventional Gas


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Natural Gas Upstream Research & Technology

• 3-D Matrix and Fracture Modeling & Simulation

• Rock Physics

• Salt Modeling and Characterization

• High-Frequency Stratigraphy: Seismic & Outcrops

• 4C 3D, 4D, and 9C 3D Seismic Data

• Advanced Basin and Play Analysis

• Visualization to Achieve Integration


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Geology

Fractures

Weber SandstonePlan View Fracture Traces

CL

F2F2

F1F1

Frontier Sandstone, WyomingPlan View Fracture Traces

Air Photograph

10 m

Steve Laubach, FRAC, BEG


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Geology

Fracture Strike Mapping Microfractures Predict Large Fractures

Fracture StrikeLaubach et al., 2000, The Leading Edge

Laubach, 1997, AAPG BulletinEast Texas, Travis Peak Formation


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Geology

Previously InvisibleMicrofractures

Transmitted Light CL

Fracture

Match point Steve Laubach, FRAC, BEG


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Fracture IntensityQuantitative Data for Mapping and Flow Modeling

Fra

ctu

re I

nte

nsi

ty

Marrett et al., 1999, GeologyStowell, 2000, SPEWest Texas, Ozona Canyon


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Geology

Rock PhysicsBEG Austin Core Warehouse


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Geology

Salt Research

Field Studies

Seismic Studies

Numerical Models

Physical Models

Martin Jackson, AGL, BEG


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Geology

3-D Seismic Attributes

Charlie Kerans, RCRL, BEG


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Geology

High-Frequency Stratigraphy


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Cocuite

Mirador

Veracruz

Jalapa

Córdoba

Cardel

Golfo de M

éxico

P.Oro

Angostura

Cópite

Gloria

Lagarto

M.Pionche

M.R.A.

Mecayucan

Miralejos

NopaltepecNovillero

R.PachecoSan Pablo

T. Higueras

Veinte

Tlacotalpan

Estanzuela

Coapa

277 Km²

240 Km²

280 Km²

180Km²

CAMPO DE GASO ACEITE

SÍSMICA 3D

Playuela

3-D Seismic Amplitude & Other Attributes

Source: A. Guzman, 2001, HGSPEMEX E&P Planning


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Geology

L1700

L1600

L1500

L1400

L1300

L1200

L1100T100 T200 T300 T400 T500 T600 T700 T800 T900 T100

0T110

0T120

0T130

0

Relic deltaRelic delta

TargetsTargets

IVFIVF

IVFIVF

IVFIVF

Bright spotsBright spots

Target 3Target 3

IVF Incised valley fill- +

Amplitude

QAc6999c

Seismic Deep Water AnalysisStratal Slicing

Exposedshelf

Lesli Wood, SGR, BEG


BureauofEconomic

GeologyQAb9145(b)c

Direction ofwave propagation

SH

X

Z

SV

A

P

A

A

X

Z

X

Z

X

Z

X

Z

X

Z

Reflectedray path

Particledisplacementvector

9C 3D Seismic Data

P, SV, and SH

Bob Hardage, EGL, BEG


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Geology

0° 30°

60°

90°

QAc8431c

N

C1

270° 90°

0°

180°

°2 0

1 0

07 ° 9

0°

8 °

Interval 1

Interval 2

W E

N

S

W E

N

S00 300 m

1000 ft

FMI logfracture azimuths

SV maximumreflectivity

Vertical wellAzimuth directionSuperbin

9C 3D Seismic Data

Fracture Azimuth

Bob Hardage, EGL, BEG


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Geology

High-Frequency Stratigraphy Orthophoto draped on DEM


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Geology

High-Frequency Stratigraphy ILRIS Laser Image


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Geology

Summary

U.S. energy demand will be increasingly satisfied by natural gas and eventually hydrogen.

Deep water and unconventional sources of natural gas will be major production components, and the southwest United States and Mexico will play a dominant role.

Research and technology such as fracture characterization and modeling, advanced seismic analysis, and salt modeling and prediction will improve exploration and development success in the GOM and for unconventional natural gas.


BureauofEconomic

Geology

Thank you!

Gracias!

4 th amgp/aapg international conference veracruz, mexico invited address: november 6, 2001

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