4219452 popular mechanics

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Safest Seat on a Plane: PM Investigates How

to Survive a CrashIn the wake of nearly 200 passenger deaths in a Brazilian airliner accident, we take an exclusivelook at 36 years' worth of NTSB reports and seating charts. The best way to live through a disaster in the sky? Move to the back of the Airbus.

BY DAVID NOLAND

A large section of this Boeing 737's fuselage blew off during a 1988 accident on Aloha Flight 243. (Photograph by AP/Wide WorldPhotos)

MYTH: It Doesn't Matter Where You Sit

"One seat is as safe as the other." -Boeing Web site

"It's an age-old question. There's just no way to say." -Federal Aviation Administration spokesman

"There is no safest seat." -airsafe.com

REALITY: It's Safer In the Back.The funny thing about all those expert opinions: They're not really based on hard data about actualairline accidents. A look at real-world crash stats, however, suggests that the farther back you sit,the better your odds of survival. Passengers near the tail of a plane are about 40 percent more likelyto survive a crash than those in the first few rows up front.



That's the conclusion of an exclusive Popular Mechanics study that examined every commercial jetcrash in the United States, since 1971, that had both fatalities and survivors. The raw data fromthese 20 accidents has been languishing for decades in National Transportation Safety Board files,waiting to be analyzed by anyone curious enough to look and willing to do the statisticaldrudgework.

And drudgework it was. For several weeks, we pored over reports filed by NTSB crashinvestigators, and studied seating charts that showed where each passenger sat and whether theylived or died. We then calculated the average fore-and-aft seating position of both survivors and

fatalities for each crash.

We also compared survival rates in four sections of the aircraft. Both analytical approaches clearlypointed to the same conclusion: It's safer in the back.

In 11 of the 20 crashes, rear passengers clearly fared better. Only five accidents favored thosesitting forward. Three were tossups, with no particular pattern of survival. In one case, seat positionscould not be determined.

In seven of the 11 crashes favoring back-seaters, their advantage was striking. For example, in boththe 1982 Air Florida accident in Washington, D.C., and the 1972 crash of an Eastern 727 at NewYork's Kennedy Airport, the handful of survivors were all sitting in the last few rows. And when a

United DC-8 ran out of fuel near Portland, Ore., in 1978, all seven passengers who died were sittingin the first four rows.

Oddly, the five accidents that favored front-cabin passengers all occurred between 1988 and 1992.In the 1989 United DC-10 accident in Sioux City, Iowa, for example, the majority of the 175survivors sat ahead of the wing.

There was just one crash in which passengers in the front had a pronounced survival advantage.The only two fatalities in a 1989 USAir runway accident at LaGuardia were both sitting in Row 21 inthe 25-row Boeing 737-400.

Where detailed seating charts were available, we also calculated survival rates for various parts of the passenger cabin. Again, the trend was clear: The rear cabin (seats located behind the trailing

edge of the wing) had the highest average survival rate at 69 percent. The overwing section had a56 percent survival rate, as did the coach section ahead of the wing. First/business-class sections(or in all-coach planes, the front 15 percent) had an average survival rate of just 49 percent.

So when the "experts" tell you it doesn't matter where you sit, have a chuckle and head for the backof the plane. And once your seatbelt is firmly fastened, relax: There's been only one fatal jet crash inthe U.S. in the last five-plus years.

Survival Rates



Survival rates for various parts of the passenger cabin, based on an analysis of all commercial jet crashes in the United Statessince 1971 where detailed seating charts were available. (Illustration by Gil Ahn. Diagram Courtesy of seatguru.com.)

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