4.3.3 time series upa package 4, module 3 time series

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4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

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Page 1: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

UPA Package 4, Module 3

TIME SERIES

Page 2: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Time Series

• Monitoring and Temporal Analysis• Index numbers• Feedback in the planning cycle• Growth Rates• Introduction exercise 4.3.3

Page 3: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Monitoring: Slum Trend 1990 - 2001

Page 4: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Monitoring: Proposed versus Real Land Use

Differences between master plan (1988) and reality (2000)

Wuhan, China

Page 5: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Monitoring and Temporal Analysis

• Monitoring to analyze and understand changes over time

Spatial-temporal analysis

• Performance measuring

Feedback and adaptation of programs and policies

Page 6: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Urban Growth, Villavicencio

Spatial – Temporal Urban Development

1970

1987 1994

Page 7: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series4.3.3 Time Series

6

Page 8: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Urban Growth, Wuhan

Page 9: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (1968)

Page 10: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (1978)

Page 11: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (1987)

Small Format Aerial Photograph

Courtesy Paul Hofstee, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation

Page 12: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (2002)

Page 13: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Trujillo, Peru (1969)

Informal development

Aerial Photograph

Page 14: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Trujillo, Peru (1997)

Informal development

Spatial-TemporalDevelopment

Page 15: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Index Numbers

Index: composite measure of two or more indicators

e.g. consumer price index, human development index

Index number = (value / base value ) * 100

http://www.bls.gov/cpi

• define purpose of index• select data source• select base for comparison• select methods of aggregation and weighting

Page 16: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Index Numbers

Comparing indexes, index number/proportion/percentage

Ii = (Mi / M0) * 100

Ii = Index number in year i

Mi = measurement in year i

M0 = measurement in base year

Price of cup of coffee in 2002 € 2.00

Price of cup of coffee in 2004 € 2,25

Price relative is (2.25/2.00) * 100 = 113

Page 17: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Feedback in the Planning Cycle

• Assess current situation• Formulate policies and programs, prioritize objectives and

targets• Monitor implementation• Provide feedback to make mid-course changes• Communicate results

Page 18: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Growth Rates

Annual population growth rate

Pt = P0 * (1+r)t

P0 = Population at the beginning of the period

Pt = Population at the end of the period

r = average annual growth rate

t = number of years in the period

Page 19: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Page 20: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Population Growth Rates

Page 21: 4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Introduction Exercise 4.3.3

• (In) compatibility of data sets for different years

Changes in boundaries (splitting and merging of municipalities), code and name changes, new variables addes, old variables deleted, errors

• Calculate population and income changes in Dutch Municipalities between 1995 and 1999