4742 bouman sirovica - american public works lapus river basin in may 1970 stations razore and...
TRANSCRIPT
Presentation Outline
• Introductory Information
• Case Studies– Romania – DESWAT
– Romania – INTEROPERATE
– The Kingdom of Morocco – Weather Radar Network Feasibility Studies
– Philippines – Meteorological and Hydrological Telecommunications Upgrade
• Closing Remarks
Results of Climate Change
• Flood zones change
• Flooding and droughts become less predictable
• Design standards are no longer adequate
• We loose the understanding of weather and storm water related dynamics
Developing Countries
• Ability to accurately predict weather does not always exist
• The US Trade & Development Agency (TDA) is funding Feasibility Studies to improve weather related facilities
• B&N managed four weather related international projects – two in Romania, Morocco, and the Philippines.
USTDA
• Mission: Advance economic development in developing and middle income countries
• Fund projects that support development of modern infrastructure and fair trade
• Stimulate American business
Weather Related Activities
• Forecasting – 6 hours to 10 days
• Now Casting – 0 to 6 hours
• Real-time
Forecasting
• Upper air soundings
• Satellite
• Computer models
Now Casting
• Doppler Radar – Useful for observation of precipitation (measures freq. differences of microwave signals)
– Clouds
– Rain
– Hail
– Snow
Real Time Data
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Humidity
• Barometric pressure
• Wind speed & direction
• Stream flow
• Soil moisture
Weather Related Data Provides
• Advanced warning of dangerous storm events
• Flood and droughts become more predictable
• Used to establish design standards
• Land use planning
• Design of flood control structures
Title Goes Here
• Bullets Go Here– And Here
Case Study: Romania DESWAT
Case Study: Romania Destructive Waters (DESWAT) Feasibility Study
Evaluation, Selection and Testing Process for Hydrologic and Hydraulic Flood Models for Use in Romania
Romania
• Eight models reviewed in US workshops
• Four models selected for consideration
• Vflo (Vieux Associates)
• RiverTrak (Riverside Technologies)
• River Forecast System (USNWS)
• Corps Water Management System (USCOE)
Model Review Process
Mapping Needs
• For Hydrologic modeling – 1:50,000
• For Hydraulic modeling – 1:10,000
• New mapping could be used for many purposes in addition to flood modeling
• Satellite mapping may be considered
Recommended Model Group
• Vflo for small basins – to 200 KM2
• RiverTrak for larger basins – 200-5,000 KM2
• RFS model – basins over 5,000 KM2
• Vidra model- basins over 500 KM2, as an interim approach, in parallel with Vflo and RiverTrak models
Lapus Basin Pilot Demonstration
• Application of Vflo and Vidra models
• Vflo training in January 2003
• Attended by 19 staff trainees
• Application included May 1970 storm
• Examples of input and resulting inundation maps
Hourly Gauge Distribution
Rainfall Hyetograph at Baia Mare and Lezer Gauges May 1970
Storm Total Rainfall
Resulting Map of Storm Total Accumulations May 1970
Discharge at Lapusel Gauge Station
Vflo: Discharge at Lapusel Gage May 1970
Flood Inundation Lapus Basin
Modeled Flood Inundation in the Lapus Basin May 1970 Event
Vidra Application To Lapus Basin
• Application of May 1970 storm
• Examples of hydrographs and resulting inundation maps
Flood Wave Hydrographs
12.05. 9.00h-16.05.1970 2.00h
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time(hour)
Q(m
3/s
)
Lapus R.-Lapusel St.Lapus R.-Razoare St.Cavnic R.-Copalnic St.Sasar R.-BaiaMare St.Suciu R.-Suciu St
Vidra: Flood Wave Hydrographs Recorded at the Gauging Stations from the Lapus River Basinin May 1970
Stations Razore and Lapusel
Comparison Lapusel Station 1970
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Time(hours)
Q(m
3/s
)
Computed
Recorded
Comparison Razoare Station 1970
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 20 40 60 80 100 120Time(hours)
Q(m
3/s
)
Computed
Recorded
Computed and Recorded Hydrographs at the Razore and Lapusel Stations in May 1970
Modeled Flood Inundation
Modeled Flood Induation in the Lapus Basin May 1970 (Bozanta Mare & Bozanta Mica)
Modeled Flood Inundation
Modeled Flood Inundation in the Lapus Basin May 1970 (Sacalaseni Area)
Feasibility Study Conclusions
• Newer data available from radar makes faster modeling feasible
• Available models can make use of this data to rapidly model flood conditions and speed the warning and preparation process
• The Vflo, RiverTrak and NWS models are well suited to this upgrade
• The Vidra model should be continued as an interim approach on larger basins
Project Update
• Seven of the 11 basins are operational
• Lockheed Martin won the implementation
• $64 million of US equipment and services export
• A USTDA success story
Title Goes Here
• Bullets Go Here– And Here
Case Study:Romania INTEROPERATE
Case Study: Romania
Case Study: Romania Integrated Climatology, Agro-meteorological, Air Pollution Forecast and Warning, Computation and Training Center –
(INTEROPERATE) Feasibility Study
• Assess existing integrated system for meteorological surveillance, forecast, and alert system in Romania
• Analyze proposed enhancements to the forecast and alert systems
Primary Project Goals
• General improvement of the forecasts, especially for severe weather events
• More accurate characterization of weather events (both in lead time and magnitude)
Radar national coverage in Romania
Primary Project Goals
• Current Capabilities
• Computation Requirements
• Data Storage Requirements
• Operational Requirements
Needs Assessment
• Sun E4500 w/8 processors
• Generic Linux cluster of 28 processors
• 1.2 Terrabytes online
• Offline storage is varied
• Need hierarchical storage management
system
Current Capabilities
MM5, WRF, ALADIN, LM, AROME – All require a system with high memory bandwidth between processor and main memory
Computation Requirements
• Computing data and imaging data must be stored (operational and archival)
• Desire 30 days of operational data
• Archival data may be permanent
Data Storage Requirements
Operational Requirements
• Redundancy and fault tolerance are critical elements of the system requirements
• During periods of critical threats or system faults, research applications will be interruptible in favor of operations
RNMA Existing Data Storage Pools
INTEROPERATE
Typical Compute Node Configurations
Note: A system achieving equivalent performance with a configuration different from the above would be equallysatisfactory
INTEROPERATE
Typical Service Node Configurations
Note: A system achieving equivalent performance with a configuration different from the above would be equallysatisfactory
INTEROPERATE
• Infuse developing science and technology into existing operations
• Maintain level of expertise current with national and international research
• Enhance and stimulate staff learning
• Assure effective use of existing and new equipment
Training Needs Assessment
• Supercomputer – for operators, administration, users and maintenance
• Databases – for database and OS administrators, users and operators
IT Training Program Categories
• Climate Variability
• Convective Weather
• Emergency Management
• Hydrology/Flooding
• Mesoscale Meteorology*
• NWP (Modeling)
• Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF)
• Radar Meteorology and Nowcasting*
• Satellite Meteorology*
• Winter Weather
• Agro-Meteorology Modeling*
• Air Pollution Meteorology*
Meteorology Training ProgramCategories
Note - * indicates existing training program
Planned processes and products (very high resolution models – 2 to 3 km grids)• AROME – Mesoscale model, non-hydrostatic with 2.5 – 3
km grid using 300 to 600 x the comp ability of ALADIN now
• COSMO Project (Local Model - LM) - Tested at 2.8 & 7 km grid on generic LINUX cluster
• WRF – A non-hydrostatic mesoscale US model which is an improvement on the MM5 model of PSU
INTEROPERATE
Project Update
• Computer building constructed
• International tender (RFP) on hold for super computer pending Romanian government funding
Title Goes Here
• Bullets Go Here– And Here
Case Study:Morocco
Weather Radar Network Feasibility Study
• Mission: Establish an effective national system for forecasting environmental crises to guarantee security and stability
• Goal: Improve quality of life and promote economic development
General Statistics
• Moroccan GNP – $85.2 billion• Population – 34,436,000• GNP per capita – $2,474• Area – 446,300 Sq. Km • Typical Rainfall – varies 50 to 800 mm
per year• Average Temperature – 17 to 19 C • Temperature range – -7 to 25 C
Normal Annual Rainfall
Mohammadia 2002
Estimated Losses Since the Mid 1990s
Loss Description USD Percent of Total
Human Loss 20,168,000 12.0%
Peopled touched 631,000 0.4%
Employment 1,479,000 0.9%
Industrial 66,726,000 39.8%
Agricultural 38,566,000 23.0%
Housing 22,648,000 13.5%
Public/Private property 15,641,000 9.3%
Road infrastructure 1,713,000 1.0%
Total 167,572,000 100.0%
Existing Radar Coverage Larache
FesCasablanca
Khouribga
Bengrir
Agadir
b7
Deficiencies of Existing Radar Sites
• Excessive overlap between radars at Casablanca, Khouribga
• Radars at Fez and Agadir have poor coverage due to interferences of the Atlas Mountains
Slide 58
b12 Pat let's discuss the dynamics of this slidebouman, 8/30/2009
b13 Have the new radars fly in speratelybouman, 8/30/2009
Slide 60
b14 Pat let's discuss the dynamics of this slidebouman, 8/30/2009
b15 Have the new radars fly in speratelybouman, 8/30/2009
Radar Citing Criteria
1. Improve public safety
2. Decrease economic loss to urban industry and agriculture
3. Improve forecasts
4. Improve aviation safety
5. Aide specific projects (hail suppression and snow enhancement)
Conclusions for Morocco
• Areas between coast lines and the Atlas mountains are covered well by radar
• Existing radar systems have black spots that limit forecasting – impact weather and flood forecasting capabilities
• No radar sites east of the Atlas Mountains
• New radar locations are being recommended
Title Goes Here
• Bullets Go Here– And Here
Case Study:Philippines
Case Study – Philippines
Meteorological and Hydrological
Telecommunications Upgrade
General Stats of the Philippines
• Population – 88 million
• Area – 298,170 Sq. Km (slightly larger than (AZ)
• GNP – $108 billion
• GNP per capita – $1,300
• Typical Rainfall – 965 to 4,064 mm
• Average Temperature Range – 25 to 29 C
Project Objectives
• Recommend a reliable and redundant telecommunications system
• Implementation plan to transmit data to the main and regional centers
Slide 68
b9 Fix heading to be consistent to other slidesbouman, 8/30/2009
Slide 69
b16 Need to find a map of rainfall distribution ... talk to Mark Heggllibouman, 8/30/2009
proposed new repeater
existing repeater
Aparri Radar
Tuguegarao
PAGASAScience Garden
San Rafael
Cabanatuan
TarlacMt. Ampucao
Cauayan
Ilagan
PAGASA‐DIC
Baguio Radar
Apa‐Tug
Yan‐Cau
YanbongCarmen Rosales
Magat
Gapan
North Backbone
South Backbone
Science Garden
Tagaytay
Malasag
Danao
Tugas
Bulan Malabog
Gapas
Lucban
Cagayan de Oro
Atimonan
Sipocot
Dan-MalTac-Dan-Gui
Guiuan RadarMactan Radar
Pili
Legaspi
Virac Radar
Polilio
Baler Radar
PAGASA - DIC
Legend:
proposed new repeater
existing repeater
The Challenge
• Existing and proposed radars provide adequate coverage
• Existing backbone uses 800 MHz
• The NTC (Philippines FCC) sold the frequency (licensed Spectrum) and it is being used by cellular companies
• Backbone communications not functional due to interferences
Title Goes Here
• Bullets Go Here– And Here Summary
Conclusions of Presentation
• Many developing and middle income countries do not have adequate weather forecasting tools
• Forecasting tools provide an understanding of storm dynamics and impacts
• Knowledge is empowering … saves lives and protects built environment
Conclusions of Presentation
• Funding is available from USTDA for feasibility studies
• Other funding programs are available for implementation (USAID, World Bank, multi national banks, etc.)
• US engineering firms and public/private partners offer advanced technology and expertise of weather management systems