1

4(8)/Ec. Dn. /2017

Ministry of Finance

Department of Economic Affairs

Economic Division

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT

AUGUST 2018

*****

HIGHLIGHTS

The growth of real GDP for the first quarter of 2018-19 was 8.2 per cent, reinforcing the upswing started

since second quarter of 2017-18.

The production of food-grains during 2018-19 in kharif season is estimated at 141.6 million tonnes (first

advance estimate), as compared to 140.7 million tonnes in 2017-18 (fourth qdvance estimate) for kharif

season. The total stocks of rice and wheat held by FCI as on 1st September 2018 was 61.2 million tonnes, as

compared to 48.2 million tonnes as on 1st September 2017.

IIP grew by 6.6 per cent in July 2018, as compared to a growth of 1.0 per cent recorded in July 2017. IIP

growth during April-July 2018-19 was 5.4 per cent, as compared to a growth of 1.7 per cent during

corresponding period of previous year.

Production of Eight Core industries grew by 6.6 per cent in July 2018, as compared to 2.9 per cent in July

2017.

Growth of money supply (on year on year basis) as on 31st August 2018, stood at 10.3 per cent, as compared

to a growth of 6.1 per cent recorded as on the corresponding date of previous year.

The value of merchandise exports and imports increased by 19.2 per cent and 25.4 per cent respectively in US$

terms in August 2018 over August 2017.

India’s current account deficit as percentage of GDP was 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2018-19. Foreign

Exchange Reserves stood at US$ 400.1 billion as on 31st August 2018.

The CPI inflation decreased to 3.7 per cent in August 2018 from 4.2 per cent in July 2018. The WPI

inflation decreased to 4.5 per cent in August 2018 from 5.1 per cent in July 2018.

The budget estimate of the fiscal deficit for 2018-19 has been set at 3.3 per cent of GDP, as compared to 3.5

per cent in 2017-18(Provisional Actuals).

_________________________________ This report is based on the information received from Macro unit, Agriculture unit, Industry & Infrastructure unit,

Money & Banking unit, Price unit, Trade & BOP unit, EDMU, Public Finance unit of the Economic Division and Aid,

Accounts and Audit Division. The Report has been prepared by Shri Pradyut Kumar Pyne, Shri Narendra Jena

(Economic Officer), and Ms. Aakanksha Arora (Deputy Director) under the supervision of Shri Arvinder Singh

Sachdeva.

2

1. ECONOMIC GROWTH

The provisional estimates (PE) of national income released by Central Statistics Office (CSO) on 31st

May 2018, estimated the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant market prices for the

year 2017-18 to be 6.7 per cent (Figure 1 and Table 1).

The growth rate of GDP at constant

market prices was 7.1 per cent (first

revised estimate) in 2016-17 and 8.2 per

cent in 2015-16 (second revised

estimate).

The growth in Gross Value Added

(GVA) at constant basic prices for the

year 2017-18 is estimated to be 6.5 per

cent (PE). At the sectoral level,

agriculture, industry and services

sectors are estimated to grow at the rate

of 3.4 per cent, 5.5 per cent and 7.9 per

cent respectively in 2017-18.

As per the quarterly estimates, the

growth of GDP at constant prices for

first quarter (April - June) of 2018-19

was 8.2 per cent, as compared to the

growth of 5.6 per cent recorded in the

corresponding quarter of the last year.

The upswing trend of quarterly growth,

which started in the second quarter of

2017-18, was reinforced in first quarter

(Q1) of 2018-19 with higher growth as

compared to third and fourth quarters

of 2017-18 (Figure 2 and Table 2).

The share of total final consumption in GDP at current prices in 2017-18 is estimated to be 70.5 per

cent, as compared to 69.9 per cent in 2016-17. The fixed investment rate (ratio of gross fixed capital

formation to GDP) is estimated to be 28.5 per cent in 2017-18, which is the same as in previous two

years. After a transient slowdown in fixed investment growth in Q1 of 2017-18, it rebounded in second

quarter and sustained momentum in following quarters.

The saving rate (share of gross saving to GDP) for the year 2016-17 was 30.0 per cent, as compared

to 31.3 per cent in 2015-16. The investment rate (share of gross capital formation to GDP) was 30.6

per cent in 2016-17, as compared to 32.3 per cent in 2015-16.

2. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT

Rainfall: There has been a deficiency of 10 per cent in the cumulative rainfall received for the country

as a whole during the period 1st June 2018 to 19th September 2018. The actual rainfall received during

this period has been 750.5 mm, as compared to the normal rainfall of 834.5 mm. Out of the total 36

meteorological subdivisions, no subdivision received large excess rainfall, 1 subdivisions received

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Figure 1: Growth rate of GDP and GVA (per cent)(at constant prices)

GDP GVA

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 -

Fig 2 : Quarterly growth of GDP and GVA (%)(at constant prices)

GDP GVA

2018

-19

3

excess rainfall, 23 subdivisions received normal rainfall, 12 subdivisions received deficient rainfall. No

subdivision received large deficient rainfall or remained without rainfall during the period.

All-India production of food-grains:

As per the 1st Advance Estimates (AE)

released by Ministry of Agriculture &

Farmers’ Welfare on 26th September

2018, the production of food-grains

during 2018-19 in kharif season is

estimated at 141.6 million tonnes, as

compared to 140.7 million tonnes in

2017-18 (4th Advance Estimate) in kharif

season (Table 3).

Procurement: Procurement of rice as on 31st August 2018 during Kharif Marketing Season 2017-18

was 36.5 million tonnes, whereas procurement of wheat during Rabi Marketing Season 2018-19 was

35.5 million tonnes (Table 4).

Offtake: The offtake of rice (all schemes) during the month of July 2018 has been 29.2 lakh tonnes.

This comprises 26.2 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation for the month of

August 2018) and 3.0 lakh tonnes under other schemes. In respect of wheat, the total offtake has been

20.3 lakh tonnes comprising of 18.6 lakh tonnes under TPDS/NFSA (offtake against the allocation

for the month of August 2018) and 1.7 lakh tonnes under other schemes. The cumulative offtake of

foodgrains during 2018-19 is 23.7 million tonnes (Table 5).

Stocks: The total stocks of rice and wheat held by FCI as on 1st September 2018 was 61.2 million

tonnes, as compared to 48.2 million tonnes as on 1st September 2017 (Table 6).

3. INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

The general IIP grew by 6.6 per cent in July 2018, as compared to 1.0 per cent recorded in July 2017.

The growth of IIP during April-July 2018 was 5.4 per cent, as compared to a growth of 1.7 per cent

recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year (Table 7).

The production of the manufacturing

sector grew by 7.0 per cent in July 2018,

as compared to a contraction of 0.1 per

cent in July 2017 (Figure 4). The

manufacturing sector’s growth during

April-July 2018 was 5.6 per cent, as

compared to growth of 1.2 per cent

during the corresponding period of the

previous year.

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-

18

Fig 4: Index of Industrial Production growth (in per cent)

IIP-General Manufacturing

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Fig 3: Production of Food-grains(in million tonnes)

Kharif Rabi

4

The growth in the mining sector was 3.7 per cent in July 2018. During April-July 2018, production of

this sector grew by 5.0 per cent, as compared to a growth of 2.0 per cent during the corresponding

period of the previous year.

In terms of use based classification, all sectors have registered positive growth in July 2018. Notably,

consumer durable goods production grew by 14.4 per cent in July 2018, as compared to a contraction

of 2.4 per cent recorded in July 2017. Infrastructure/construction goods sector registered a growth of

8.4 per cent in July 2018, as compared to a growth of 4.3 per cent in July 2017.

Performance of Eight Core Industries

Production of eight core infrastructure industries grew by 6.6 per cent in July 2018, as compared to a

growth of 2.9 per cent in July 2017. During April-July 2018, the production of eight core industries

grew by 5.8 per cent, as compared to a growth of 2.6 per cent recorded in the corresponding period

of the previous year (Table 8).

The growth in cement production was

10.8 per cent in July 2018, as compared to

a growth of 1.0 per cent in July 2017

(Figure 5). During April-July 2018,

cement production grew by 14.7 per cent,

as compared to a contraction of 2.3 per

cent in April-July 2017-18.

Production of steel sector grew by 6.0 per

cent in July 2018, as compared to a

growth of 9.4 per cent in July 2017.

During April-July 2018, production of

this sector increased by 3.2 per cent.

Production of the fertilizers increased by 1.3 per cent in July 2018, as compared to a growth of 0.2

per cent in July 2017. Coal production grew by 9.7 per cent in July 2018, as compared to a growth of

0.6 per cent in July 2017. Growth of production of petroleum refinery products was 12.3 per cent in

July 2018, as compared to a contraction of 2.7 per cent in July 2017. Crude oil production and natural

gas production contracted by 5.4 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively in July 2018.

Some Infrastructure Indicators

The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1169 million at the end of June 2018 to

1179 million at end July 2018. The overall tele-density in India increased from 89.7 per hundred

individuals at end of June 2018 to 90.4 at end July 2018; the urban tele-density was 159.4 and rural

tele-density was 58.5 at end July 2018.

The traffic handled at major ports grew by 5.1 per cent to 288.4 million tonnes in April-August 2018,

from 274.3 million tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The total installed capacity for electricity generation was 3,45,495 MW at the end of July 2018, of

which the share of thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear sources was 64.4 per cent, 13.1 per cent,

20.4 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.

As per the Central Electricity Authority, electricity generation grew by 4.3 per cent in July 2018 (year

on year (YoY) basis).

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct-

16

Dec-1

6

Feb

-17

Ap

r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct-

17

Dec-1

7

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jun

-18

Fig. 5: Eight Core Industries - Production growth(in per cent)

Eight core - overall Steel Cement

5

4. FINANCIAL MARKETS

Money and Banking

Money Supply: Growth of money supply (M3) on YoY basis as on 31st August 2018 stood at 10.3

per cent, as compared to a growth rate of 6.1 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of

previous year. As regards the components of money supply, the growth of ‘currency with the public’

was 24.7 per cent as on 31st August 2018, against growth of (-)10.8 per cent registered during the

corresponding period a year ago. The growth rate of time deposits with banks was 8.2 per cent as on

31st August 2018, as against 7.7 per cent in recorded in the corresponding period a year ago. On the

other hand, demand deposits was 9.7 per cent as on 31st August 2018, as against 18.9 per cent during

the corresponding period of previous year. The details of sources of money supply are given in the

Table 9.

Growth of aggregate deposits of

Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) as

on 31st August 2018 was 8.9 per cent YoY

basis, as compared to 9.1 per cent

recorded during the corresponding date

of the previous year. In terms of bank

credit, YoY growth was 13.5 per cent as

on 31st August 2018, as against 6.1 per

cent in the corresponding period a year

ago. The YoY growth of investment in

Government and other approved

securities by SCBs was 5.1 per cent as on

31st August 2018, as compared to 16.4 per

cent in the corresponding period of the

previous year.

Lending and deposit rates: The base lending rate as on 7th September 2018 was 8.85/9.45 per cent,

as compared to 9.00/9.55 per cent during the corresponding period a year ago. The term deposit rates

for above one year was 6.25/7.25 per cent as on 7th September 2018, as against 6.25/6.75 per cent

during the corresponding period a year ago.

5. EXTERNAL SECTOR

Merchandise Trade

Foreign trade: Merchandise exports and

imports increased by 19.2 per cent and

25.4 per cent respectively in US$ terms

during August 2018. During August

2018, oil imports increased by 51.6 per

cent and non-oil imports increased by

18.2 per cent over August 2017 (Table

10).

During April-August 2018, the value of

merchandise exports and imports

increased by 16.1 per cent and 17.3 per

cent respectively in US$ terms (Figure 7).

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

-20

0

20

40

60

Fig 7 : Growth of merchandise exports and imports(in per cent)

Trade Balance in US$ bn.(RHS) Exports Imports

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Fig 6 : Growth of Bank Credit - as on (Y-o-Y)(in per cent)

6

Oil imports and non-oil imports increased by 62.0 per cent and 7.8 per cent respectively in April-

August 2018.

The value of merchandise trade deficit in August 2018 was US$ 17.4 billion, which was higher than

the level of US$ 12.7 billion in August 2017. During April-August 2018, merchandise trade deficit

increased to US$ 80.4 billion, from US$ 67.3 billion in April-August 2017.

India’s Balance of Payments:

India’s current account deficit (CAD)

was US$ 15.8 billion (2.4 per cent of

GDP) in the Q1 of 2018-19, as

compared to US$ 15.0 billion (2.5 per

cent of GDP) in the corresponding

quarter of 2017-18 (Figure 8). The

widening of the CAD on YoY basis was

primarily on account of a higher trade

deficit.

Net foreign direct investment in Q1 of 2018-19 was at US$ 9.7 billion, higher than US$ 7.1 billion in

Q1 of 2017-18. (Table 11). Portfolio investment recorded net outflow of US$ 8.1 billion in Q1 of

2018-19, as compared to an inflow of US$ 12.5 billion in Q1 of last year. In Q1 of 2018-19, there was

a depletion of US$ 11.3 billion of the foreign exchange reserves (on BoP basis), as against an accretion

of US$ 11.4 billion in Q1 of 2017-18.

Foreign Exchange Reserves: Foreign

exchange reserves stood at US$ 400.1

billion as on 31st August 2018, as

compared to US$ 424.5 billion at end-

March 2018 (Table 12 and Figure 9).

In 2017-18, there was an accretion of

US$ 43.6 billion to the foreign exchange

reserves, as compared to an accretion of

US$ 21.6 billion in 2016-17 (on BoP

basis) (Table 11). Note: RTP: Reserve Tranche Position, SDRs: Special Drawing Rights

Exchange Rate: The rupee

depreciated against the US dollar, Euro

and Japanese Yen by 1.2 per cent, 0.2

per cent, 1.5 per cent respectively and

appreciated against pound sterling by

0.9 per cent in August 2018 over July

2018 ( Figure 10 and Table 13).

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Fig 8: Current Account Deficit(as percentage of GDP)

Annual CAD (% of GDP)

Foreign Currency

Assets

Gold, RTP & SDRs

250

290

330

370

410

450

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

May-1

5

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

May-1

6

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Feb

-17

May-1

7

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Feb

-18

May-1

8

Au

g-1

8

Fig. 9 : Foreign Exchange Reserve(in US$ billion)

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

Au

g-1

4

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

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g-1

5

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb

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r-16

Jun

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g-1

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Oct-

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Dec-1

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Feb

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r-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct-

17

Dec-1

7

Feb

-18

Ap

r-18

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Fig. 10: Movement of Exchange Rate

( ` per unit of US $ )

7

External Debt:

India’s external debt stood at US$ 529.7

billion at end-March 2018, recording an

increase of 12.4 per cent over the level

at end-March 2017. Long-term debt was

US$ 427.5 billion at end-March 2018, as

compared to US$ 383.2 billion at end-

March 2017. Short-term external debt

(by original maturity) was US$ 102.2

billion at end-March 2018, as compared

to US$ 88.1 billion at end-March 2017

(Figure 11).

6. INFLATION Inflation based on Consumer Price Indices (CPIs):

The all India Consumer Price Index – Combined (CPI-C) inflation decreased to 3.7 per cent in August

2018 from 4.2 per cent in July 2018. Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI)

decreased to 0.3 per cent in August 2018 from 1.3 per cent in July 2018 due to decrease in inflation

of milk and products, fruits and vegetables. CPI Fuel and light inflation for August 2018 increased to

8.5 per cent, as compared to 8.0 per cent in July 2018.

Inflation based on CPI-IW for July 2018 increased to 5.6 per cent, as compared to 3.9 per cent in June

2018. Inflation based on CPI-AL and CPI-RL stood at 2.0 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively in

July, 2018 (Table 15).

Inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI):

The WPI inflation decreased to 4.5 per

cent in August 2018 from 5.1 per cent

in July 2018. WPI food inflation (food

articles + food products) declined to (-

)2.3 per cent in August 2018 from (-

)0.9 per cent in July 2018, mainly on

account of fall in inflation of fruits and

vegetables.

Inflation in fuel & power decreased to

17.7 per cent in August 2018, as

compared to 18.1 per cent in July

2018.

Inflation for manufactured products increased to 4.4 per cent in August 2018 from 4.3 per cent in

July 2018. Inflation for Non-food manufactured products (core) increased to 5.0 per cent in August

2018, as compare to 4.7 per cent in July 2018 (Figure 12).

Long term debt

100

250

400

550

Jun

-04

Mar-

05

Mar-

06

Mar-

07

Mar-

08

Mar-

09

Mar-

10

Mar-

11

Mar-

12

Mar-

13

Mar-

14

Mar-

15

Mar-

16

Mar-

17

Mar-

18

Fig. 11 : India's External Debt(in US$ billion)

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Fig. 12 : Inflation in WPI and CPI(in per cent)

WPI All Commodities WPI Food

CPI Headline CPI Food (CFPI)

8

Global Commodity Prices (based on the World Bank Pink Sheet data)

Food inflation based on World Bank Food index stood at (-)0.9 per cent in August 2018, as compared

to (-)2.8 per cent in July 2018. Energy prices as measured by the World Bank energy index decreased

by 38.8 per cent (y-o-y) and ‘metals & minerals’ stood at (-)4.2 per cent in August 2018 (Table 16).

7. PUBLIC FINANCE

As per the Provisional Actuals for 2017-

18, the fiscal deficit of the Central

Government as percentage of GDP is

3.5 per cent, as against the

corresponding budget estimate of 3.2

per cent. The fiscal deficit is budgeted

to decline to 3.3 per cent of GDP in

2018-19 (Figure 13).

The Budget estimate for revenue deficit

as percentage of GDP for 2018-19 is 2.2

per cent, as compared to 2.6 percent in

2017-18 (RE).

The growth in some fiscal parameters (provisional figures) for April-August 2018 are as follows

o Gross tax revenue recorded a growth of 8.7 per cent during April-August 2018 and was

`,34,131 crore.

o Revenue Receipts (net to Centre) increased by 13.3 per cent to `4,64,548 crore.

o Tax revenue (net to Centre) grew by 7.5 per cent to ` 3,66,216 crore.

o Non-tax revenuewas` 98,332 crore,increasing by 42 per cent.

o Revenue expenditure grew by 11.6 per cent.

o Capital expenditure grewby 20.6 per cent.

o Total expenditure increased by 12.7 per cent,amounting to `10,70,859 crore.

8. SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS IN AUGUST 2018

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved the release of pulses to

States/UTs at discounted rate to be utilized for various Welfare Schemes like PDS, Mid-Day Meal

Scheme etc. from the stock of pulses procured under Price Support Schemes.

The CCEA has approved the proposal for opening of 13 new KendriyaVidyalayas (KVs) in seven

States and a second Jawahar NavodayaVidyalaya (JNV) in Alot, District Ratlam, Madhya Pradesh.

The CCEA approved grant of interest free loan equivalent to interest during construction component

to fertilizer revival projects at Sindri, Gorakhpur and Barauni by Hindustan Urvarak and Rasayan

Limited

The CCEA approved the project for construction of 6.93 km long 4-lane bridge at Phulaut in Bihar.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18(RE)

2018-19(BE)

Fig 13 : Gross Fiscal Deficit(as percentage of GDP)

9

The CCEA has given its approval for continuation and revision of the Centrally Sponsored Scheme

of “Post Matric Scholarship for Other Backward Classes Students for studying in India” (PMS-OBC)

for the years 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20.

The CCEA has given its approval for continuation of Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)

beyond 12th Five Year Plan period. It will help in connecting 38,412 habitations at an estimated cost

of ` 84,934 crore (Central Share is 54,900 crore and State share is 30,034 crore). The fund sharing

pattern will be same.

The Government of India, the Government of Rajasthan and the World Bank signed a $250 million

Development Policy Loan (DPL) to support the Government of Rajasthan in improving the

performance of its Electricity Distribution Sector under the State’s 24x7 Power for All program.

The Union Cabinet chaired approved for revision of the project outlay for setting up of India Post

Payments Bank (IPPB) from ` 800 crore to ` 1,435 crore. The additional sum of ` 635 crore in the

revised cost estimates is on account of ` 400 crore for Technology Costs and ` 235 crore for Human

Resource Costs.

The CCEA has given its approval for the umbrella scheme “Ocean Services, Technology,

Observations, Resources Modelling and Science (O-SMART)”, for implementation during the period

from 2017-18 to 2019-20 at an overall cost of ` 1623 crore. The scheme encompasses a total of 16

sub-projects addressing ocean development activities such as Services, Technology, Resources,

Observations and Science.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Government of lndia signed a $346 million loan to

finance improvement of over 400 kilometers of state highways that would enhance connectivity and

access to economic centers across 12 districts in Kamataka.

*****

10

TABLES

Table 1: Growth of GVA at Basic Prices by Economic Activity and GDP at Market Prices (per cent)

Sectors Growth rate at constant (2011-12) prices (per cent)

Share in GVA at current prices (per cent)

2015-16 2nd RE

2016-17 1st RE

2017-18 PE

2015-16 2nd RE

2016-17 1st RE

2017-18 PE

Agriculture, forestry & fishing 0.6 6.3 3.4 17.7 17.9 17.1

Industry 9.8 6.8 5.5 29.8 29.3 29.1

Mining & quarrying 13.8 13.0 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5

Manufacturing 12.8 7.9 5.7 16.8 16.8 16.7

Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

4.7 9.2 7.2 2.7 2.6 2.6

Construction 3.7 1.3 5.7 7.9 7.4 7.4

Services 9.6 7.5 7.9 52.5 52.8 53.9

Trade, hotel, transport storage 10.3 7.2 8.0 18.3 18.2 18.5

Financial , real estate & prof. services 10.9 6.0 6.6 20.9 20.6 20.8

Public administration, defence and other services

6.1 10.7 10.0 13.2 13.9 14.5

GVA at basic prices 8.1 7.1 6.5 100.0 100.0 100.0

GDP at market prices 8.2 7.1 6.7 --- --- ---

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO). Notes: 2nd RE: Second Revised Estimates, 1st RE: First Revised Estimates, PE: Provisional Estimates..

Table 2: Quarter-wise Growth of GVA and GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices (per cent)

Sectors 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Agriculture, forestry & fishing 4.3 5.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 2.6 3.1 4.5 5.3

Industry 8.3 6.8 7.1 5.0 0.1 6.1 7.1 8.8 10.3

Mining & quarrying 10.5 9.1 12.1

18.8

1.7 6.9 1.4 2.7 0.1

Manufacturing 9.9 7.7 8.1 6.1 -1.8 7.1 8.5 9.1 13.5

Electricity, gas,water supply & other utility services 12.4 7.1 9.5 8.1 7.1 7.7 6.1 7.7 7.3

Construction 3.0 3.8 2.8 -3.9 1.8 3.1 6.6

11.5

8.7

Services 9.4 7.9 6.5 6.3 9.5 6.8 7.7 7.7 7.3

Trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting

8.9 7.2 7.5 5.5 8.4 8.5 8.5 6.8 6.7

Financial, real estate & professional services 10.5 8.3 2.8 1.0 8.4 6.1 6.9 5.0 6.5

Public administration, defence and other services 7.7 8.0 10.6

16.4

13.5

6.1 7.7 13.3

9.9

GVA at basic price 8.3 7.2 6.9 6.0 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.6 8.0

GDP at market prices 8.1 7.6 6.8 6.1 5.6 6.3 7.0 7.7 8.2

Source: CSO.

11

Table 3: Production of Major Agricultural Crops (1st Adv. Est.)

Crops Production (Million Tonnes)

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17 (Final)

2017-18 (4thAE)

2018-19* (1st AE)

Total Food-grains 257.1 265.0 252.0 251.6 275.1 284.8 141.6

Rice 105.2 106.7 105.5 104.4 109.7 112.9 99.2

Wheat 93.5 95.9 86.5 92.3 98.5 99.7 --

Total Coarse Cereals 40.0 43.3 42.9 38.5 43.8 47.0 33.1

Total Pulses 18.3 19.3 17.2 16.4 23.1 25.2 9.2

Total Oilseeds 30.9 32.8 27.5 25.3 31.3 31.3 22.2

Sugarcane 341.2 352.1 362.3 348.4 306.1 376.9 383.9

Cotton# 34.2 35.9 34.8 30.0 32.6 34.9 32.5

Source: DES, DAC&FW, M/o Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Note: *: Kharif Season only, 1st RE: First Revised Estimtes, 4thAE: 4thAdvance Estimates, # Million bales of 170 kgs. each.

Table 4 : Procurement of Crops (Million Tonnes)

Crops 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Rice# 34.0 31.8 32.0 34.2 38.1 36.4*

Wheat@ 38.2 25.1 28.0 28.1 23.0 30.8 35.5#

Total 72.2 56.9 60.2 62.3 61.1 67.2 35.5

Source: FCI and DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution. Notes: Procurement of rice as on 31.08.2018. # Procurement of wheat as on 06.07.2018. # Kharif Marketing Season (October-September), @ Rabi Marketing Season (April-March).

Table 5: Offtake of Food-grains (Million Tonnes)

Crops 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19*

Rice 29.2 30.7 31.8 32.8 35.0 14.1

Wheat 30.6 25.2 31.8 29.1 25.3 9.6

Total (Rice & Wheat)

59.8 55.9 63.6 61.9 60.3 23.7

Source: DFPD, M/o Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution. Note: *: upto May 2018.

Table 6: Stocks of Food-grains (Million Tonnes)

Crops September 1, 2017 September 1, 2018

1. Rice 18.2 20.6

2. Unmilled Paddy# 3.3 3.1

3. Converted Unmilled Paddy in terms of Rice 2.2 2.1

4. Wheat 27.8 38.5

Total (Rice & Wheat)(1+3+4) 48.2 61.2

Source: FCI. Notes: # Since September, 2013, FCI gives separate figures for rice and unmilled paddy lying with FCI & state agencies in terms of rice.

12

Table 7 : Percentage Change in Index of Industrial Production (Base 2011-12)

2016-17 2017-18 2017-18 April-July

2018-19 April-July

July 2017 July 2018*

General 4.6 4.3 1.7 5.4 1.0 6.6

Sectoral

Mining 5.3 2.3 2.0 5.0 4.5 3.7

Manufacturing 4.4 4.5 1.2 5.6 -0.1 7.0

Electricity 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.3 6.6 6.7

Use-based

Primary goods 4.9 3.7 2.2 6.1 2.2 6.9

Capital goods 3.2 3.9 -3.5 7.4 -1.1 3.0

Intermediate goods 3.3 2.3 0.0 0.1 -2.8 1.2

Infrastructure/ construction goods 3.9 5.6 2.4 8.1 4.3 8.4

Consumer durables 2.9 0.7 -1.5 9.4 -2.4 14.4

Consumer non-durables 7.9 10.4 6.8 2.7 4.1 5.6

Source: CSO. Note: * : Figures for July 2018 are as per Quick Estimates.

Table 8 : Production growth (per cent) in Core Infrastructure-Supportive Industries

Industry 2016-17 2017-18 2017-18 (Apr.-Jul.)

2018-19 (Apr.-Jul.)

July 2017 July 2018

Coal 3.2 2.6 -3.3 12.3 0.6 9.7

Crude oil -2.5 -0.9 0.1 -3.2 -0.5 -5.4

Natural Gas -1.0 2.9 4.9 -1.1 6.6 -5.2

Refinery Products 4.9 4.6 0.7 8.0 -2.7 12.3

Fertilizers 0.2 0.0 -0.9 3.7 0.2 1.3

Steel 10.7 5.6 7.0 3.2 9.4 6.0

Cement -1.2 6.3 -2.3 14.7 1.0 10.8

Electricity 5.8 5.3 5.6 4.8 6.6 4.8

Overall growth 4.8 4.3 2.6 5.8 2.9 6.6

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DIPP (Ministry of Commerce & Industry).

Table 9 : Broad Money: Sources (in ₹ Billion)

Item Outstanding as on YoY Growth

2018 31st August 2017 31st August 2018

Mar. 31 Aug. 31 (in per cent) (in per cent)

M3 1,39,625.9 1,42,706.7 6.1 10.3

Sources

Net Bank Credit to Government 40,014.0 43,943.3 10.2 5.0

Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 92,137.2 93,775.0 5.8 12.8

Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector

29,223.0 29,952.3 2.4 12.6

Government's Currency Liabilities to the Public

256.5 257.0 10.7 1.1

Banking Sector's Net Non-Monetary Liabilities 22,004.8 25,220.8 7.5 12.4

Source: Reserve Bank of India. Note: * : Year on Year growth.

13

Table 10 : Exports and Imports (US$ billion)

Item 2017-18 August (P) Growth (%)

April-August (P) Growth (%) 2017 2018 2017 2018

Exports 303.3 23.4 27.8 19.2 117.2 136.1 16.1

Imports 464.7 36.1 45.2 25.4 184.5 216.4 17.3

Oil Imports 108.6 7.8 11.8 51.6 38.3 58.8 62.0

Non-Oil Imports

356.1 28.3 33.4 18.2 146.2 157.6 7.8

Trade Deficit -161.4 -12.7 -17.4 - -67.3 -80.4 -

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Note: P: Provisional

Table 11 : Balance of Payments: (US$ billion)

Items 2016-17

2017-18

2017-18 (Apr-Jun)

2018-19 (Apr-Jun)

Merchandise Exports 280.1 309.0 73.1 83.4

Merchandise Imports 392.6 469.0 115.1 129.1

Trade Balance -112.4 -160.0 -41.9 -45.7

Net Invisibles 97.1 111.3 27.0 29.9

Current Account Balance -15.3 -48.7 -15.0 -15.8

Commercial Borrowings (MT & LT) -6.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7

Foreign Investment (Net) 43.2 52.4 19.6 1.6

Foreign Direct Investment (Net) 35.6 30.3 7.1 9.7

Foreign Portfolio Investment (Net) 7.6 22.1 12.5 -8.1

Capital Account Balance (including error & omission) 36.8 92.3 26.4 4.5

Change in Reserves (Increase - / Decrease +) -21.6 -43.6 -11.4 11.3

Trade balance/GDP (%) -4.9 -6.1 -6.9 -6.9

Net Invisible Balance/GDP (%) 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5

Current Account Balance/GDP (%) -0.7 -1.9 -2.5 -2.4

Source: Reserve Bank of India.

14

Table 12 : Foreign Exchange Reserves (in Billion)

End of Financial Year Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation

(Rupees ) (US Dollar) (Rupees ) (US Dollar )

At the end of year (Variation over last year)

2015-16 23787 360.2 2411 18.6

2016-17 23982 370.0 195 9.8

2017-18 27609 424.5 3627 54.6

At the end of month (Variation over last month)

April 2017 23968 373.3 -14 3.4

May 2017 24529 380.1 561 6.8

June 2017 25019 386.5 489 6.4

July 2017 25221 393.7 202 7.1

August 2017 25463 397.8 243 4.2

September 2017 26149 400.2 686 2.4

October 2017 25854 399.2 -295 -1.0

November 2017 25894 401.9 40 2.7

December 2017 26148 409.1 254 7.1

January 2018 26897 422.4 749 13.3

February 2018 27400 421.0 503 -1.4

March 2018 27609 424.5 209 3.5

2018-19

April 2018 28073 420.5 464 -4.0

May 2018 27805 412.4 -268 -8.1

June 2018 27811 405.7 6 -6.7

July 2018 27682 403.7 -129 -2.1

August 2018 28359 400.1 678 -3.6

Source: Reserve Bank of India.

Table 13 : Rupees per unit of foreign currency*

Financial Year US dollar Pound sterling Euro Japanese yen 2015-16 65.4647 98.5730 72.2907 0.5459

2016-17 67.0731 87.6952 73.6141 0.6204

2017-18 64.4551 85.5128 75.4379 0.5816

Monthly

April 2017 64.5071 81.5426 69.1656 0.5857

May 2017 64.4248 83.2101 71.2258 0.5745

June 2017 64.4430 82.5126 72.4139 0.5814

July 2017 64.4559 83.7544 74.2036 0.5734

August 2017 63.9684 83.0433 75.5956 0.5822

September 2017 64.4409 85.7254 76.7891 0.5822

October 2017 65.0813 85.9151 76.4800 0.5764

November 2017 64.8626 85.7741 76.1211 0.5749

December 2017 64.2423 86.1115 75.9975 0.5688

January 2018 63.6369 87.6509 77.4493 0.5726

February 2018 64.3738 90.0763 79.5625 0.5963

March 2018 65.0213 90.8382 80.2499 0.6134

2018-19

April 2018 65.6363 92.5691 80.6612 0.6102

May 2018 67.5394 90.9732 79.8248 0.6155

June 2018 67.7931 90.0672 79.1619 0.6161

July 2018 68.6934 90.4956 80.2993 0.6166

August 2018 69.5465 89.6929 80.4388 62.5900

Source: Reserve Bank of India. Notes: * : FEDAI Indicative Market Rates (on monthly average basis).

15

Table 14 : External Assistance and Debt Service Payments (` crore)*

August 2017

During the Financial year

2017-2018

August 2018

During the Financial year

2018-2019

External Assistance (Government Account)

1) Gross Disbursement 2,243.6 15,243.1 2,342.6 15,645.4

2) Repayments 1,815.2 11,608.9 1,676.4 10,572.1

3) Interest Payments 481.2 2,645.6 335.0 2,003.8

4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 428.4 3,634.2 666.2 5,073.4

5) Net Transfers (4-3) -52.8 988.7 331.2 3,069.6

External Assistance (Non-Government Account)

1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 1,938.1 589.7 1,074.7

2) Repayments 0.0 1,699.9 146.8 1,780.1

3) Interest Payments 0.0 284.4 61.3 386.2

4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 238.2 442.8 -705.4

5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 -46.2 381.6 -1,091.7

Govt Grants

1) Gross Disbursement 20.3 166.3 212.2 835.5

2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 20.3 166.3 212.2 835.5

5) Net Transfers (4-3) 20.3 166.3 212.2 835.5

Non Govt Grants

1) Gross Disbursement 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2) Repayments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3) Interest Payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5) Net Transfers (4-3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Grand Total

1) Gross Disbursements 2,263.8 17,347.6 3,144.5 17,555.6

2) Repayments 1,815.2 13,308.8 1,823.3 12,352.2

3) Interest Payments 481.2 2,930.0 396.3 2,390.0

4) Net Disbursement (1-2) 448.7 4,038.8 1,321.2 5,203.4

5) Net Transfers (4-3) -32.5 1,108.8 924.9 2,813.4

Source: Office of the Controller of Aid, Accounts and Audit, Ministry of Finance. Note: * : Data are provisional.

16

Table 15 : Year-on-Year inflation based on WPI and CPI’s (per cent)

WPI CPI-IW CPI-AL CPI-RL CPI-C

Base : 2011-12 2001 1986-87 1986-87 2012

2014-15 1.2 6.3 6.6 6.9 5.9

2015-16 -3.7 5.6 4.4 4.6 4.9

2016-17 1.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5

2017-18 3.0 3.1 2.2 2.3 3.6

2017-18 Monthly Inflation

Apr-17 3.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 3.0

May-17 2.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.2

Jun-17 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.5

Jul-17 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.0 2.4

Aug-17 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 3.3

Sep-17 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.5 3.3

Oct-17 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.6

Nov-17 4.0 4.0 3.1 3.1 4.9

Dec-17 3.6 4.0 2.7 2.8 5.2

Jan-18 3.0 5.1 2.9 2.9 5.1

Feb-18 2.7 4.7 2.3 2.5 4.4

Mar-18 2.5 4.4 2.4 2.5 4.3

2018-19

Apr-18 3.2 4.0 2.1 2.3 4.6

May-18 4.4 4.0 2.2 2.4 4.9

Jun-18 5.8 3.9 1.9 2.0 4.9

Jul-18 5.1 5.6 2.0 2.3 4.2

Aug-18 4.5 - - - 3.7

Source: Office of Economic Adviser- DIPP, Labour Bureau and Central Statistics Office. Note: WPI inflation for last two months and CPI-C inflation for last one month are provisional.

Table 16 : Year-on-Year global inflation for major groups/sub-groups (per cent)

Aug-2017 Jun-2018 Jul-2018 Aug-2018

Energy 12.9 50.4 47.4 38.8

Non-energy 3.3 7.3 0.7 -2.0

Agriculture -4.8 1.4 -2.4 -2.0

Beverages -11.8 -0.8 -4.3 -9.0

Food -5.3 1.6 -2.8 -0.9

Raw Materials 0.7 2.0 -0.2 -1.3

Fertilizers -1.9 14.4 22.1 22.0

Metals & Minerals 27.9 21.3 5.8 -4.2

Precious Metals -6.1 0.9 -0.5 -7.4

Source: World Bank.

17

Table 17 : Fiscal parameters of the Central Government (` crore)

2018-19 BE

April-August Growth Rate (per cent)

2017-18 2018-19 April-August 2017-18

April-August 2018-19

1. Revenue Receipts 1725738 409868 464548 6.4 13.3

Gross tax revenue 2271242 583626 634131 20.0 8.7

Tax (net to Centre) 1480649 340612 366216 21.5 7.5

Non Tax 245089 69256 98332 -34.1 42.0

2. Capital Receipts (of which) 716475 540579 606311 29.8 12.2

Recovery of loans 12199 5562 5596 4.3 0.6

Other Receipts 80000 9972 9424 213.3 -5.5

Borrowings and other liabilities 624276 525045 591291 28.7 12.6

3. Total Receipts (1+2) 2442213 950447 1070859 18.6 12.7

Interest payments 575795 196393 219111 12.6 11.6

Major Subsidies 264336 166978 170617 44.9 2.2

Pensions 168466 74351 84995 54.7 14.3

4. Total Expenditure 2442213 950447 1070859 18.6 12.7

(a)Revenue Expenditure 2141772 840799 938641 18.4 11.6

(b) (Of which) Grants for creation of Capital Assets

195345 84800 94822 20.5 11.8

(c)Capital Expenditure 300441 109648 132218 20.1 20.6

5. Revenue Deficit 416034 430931 474093 32.6 10.0

6.Effective Revenue Deficit 220689 346131 379271 35.9 9.6

7. Fiscal Deficit 624276 525045 591291 28.7 12.6

8. Primary Deficit 48481 328652 372180 40.8 13.2

Source: Union Budget 2018-19; Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance Notes: BE: Budget estimate; PA: Provisional Actual.