4developers 2015: startup - czy masz szansę? - krzysztof daniel
TRANSCRIPT
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My own business - do I have a chance?Krzysztof Daniel
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ex IBMerex Red Hatterwork @ Currency OneI like games
About me
"Go board part" by Dilaudid - Own work; modified from Image:Go_board.jpg, which was made by user:donarreiskoffer. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
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So, why are you here?
Xkcd.com, CC-BY-NC
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Fast forward...
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Fast forward...
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But...
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But...
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A word of warning
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So, let’s continue
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Absolutely no customer has a need to make you profitable.
First of all – user needs
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ActivitiesPracticesKnowledgeData
Secondly - components
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Let’s talk about ideas
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●printing
Let’s talk about ideas
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●printing●digital camera
Let’s talk about ideas
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●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface
Let’s talk about ideas
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●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface●cloud
Let’s talk about ideas
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●printing●digital camera●mobile phone touch interface●cloud●electricity
Let’s talk about ideas
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One problem with the future
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One problem with the future
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A bit of theory
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The diffusion curve
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The diffusion curve
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The diffusion curve
http://www.lef.csc.com/publications/911
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Let’s cheat
f(time)g(time)
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Let’s cheat
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Let’s define:
Let’s cheat!
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Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
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Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.●Certainty - how well understood a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
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Let’s define:●Ubiquity - how ubiquitous a thing is.●Certainty - how well understood a thing is.
Let’s cheat!
Ubiquity
Certainty
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Time removed.http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014/03/on-mapping-and-evolution-axis.html
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Evolution vs Product
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2014_11_01_archive.html
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Evolution curve - idealized
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The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
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Weak signals
http://blog.gardeviance.org/2015/03/evolution-diffusion-hype-cycle-and.html
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Profits
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a.k.a. Wonder - I wonder what it can do.●New●Novel●Unknown●Uncertain●Rare●Changing●Chaotic
Genesis
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Nobody did that before!
Are you sure?
Are you ready to fail fast?
Genesis-like idea
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Microsoft Bob
http://news.yahoo.com/directly-fail-worst-tech-product-132527744.html
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●bottled water for pets
Thirsty dog
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crispy beeftangy fish
Thirsty dog
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15th century
And some successes, too
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The Internet - 1969
Some other successes
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Do I have a chance?
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You will die before you make any money out of it.*
Do I have a chance?
*or at least get very old, as the evolution speed accelerates
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The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
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●Measured●Stable●Predictable●Cost of doing business●Market penetration near 100%●Usually invisible to the user●Electricity, Network, Computing
Utility
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●contract to fulfill●sheer price matters●no room for innovation●really large scale●nobody will see that●existing users may not be willing to switch unless you’re significantly cheaper
ocan you be significantly cheaper without deep experience in the field?
Startup problems
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Do I have a chance?
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New electricity provider?
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
power
computing power
social network
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“New” search engine?
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The Evolution Axis
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
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●custom built
●off-the-shelf product/rental
●maturing
Transitional phase
●IBM Watson
●cars
●virtual personal assistants (Google Now, Apple Siri, Amazon Echo)
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product-to-product startup
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Canonical vs Red Hat●a number of years of really unsuccessful fight●tough competition of free, open sourced products●huge inertia proportional to the size of adopter community●product needs to be 9x better to cause replacement*●entering still possible, time-proportional market share
product-to-product startup
* heard from one business angel, may be an approximation
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No. Unless you’ve got ●a really, really good product●a really, really good sales●a lot of time
Do I have a chance?
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Three types of innovation●genesis●product-to-product, utility to utility
That said...
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Three types of innovation●genesis●product-to-product, utility-to-utility●there is one more...
That said...
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Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wonder
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Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
peaceful competitionwonder
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Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of
inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
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previous success is the deadliest enemy
Inertia
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●to increase the overall effectiveness of sales departments [...];
●to improve the effectiveness of sales to large customers [...];
●[...] more precise monitoring of the level of customer satisfaction[...];
●[...] price policy (promotional offers, packaging of services) [...];
●[...] ATMAN Private Cloud [...];
●[...] sales of services outside Poland [...].
Inertia
http://media.atm.com.pl/en/pr/291131/atm-publishes-its-financial-report-for-the-third-quarter-of-2014
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Let’s go back to evolution
Genesis UtilityCustom Built Product(+rental)
Value
wall of
inertia
peaceful competitionwonder
companies stop here
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●is a deadly threat to corporations●is the sweet spot for startups
the wall of inertia
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takes product, makes “cost of doing business” utilityexamples:●Amazon EC2●Neostrada
product-to-utility startup
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●effectiveness - when the price defends youowhat is the cost of your own datacenter/e-mail server?oSomething is so cheap, that suddenly everyone can afford it
lFord TlCommodore 64lPrinted books
●Jevons effect
Industrialization
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Do I have a chance?
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Absolutely!
Do I have a chance?
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Open Source
Open Source
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●IBM PC vs Apple Mac
●Google Android vs Apple iOS
●Sony Betamax vs JVC VHS
Open Approach
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Ecosystem
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The Wardley Mapping is really powerful technique:lHS2lHM GovernmentlDutch GovernmentlTwo very large banks
Why?
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About the presentation
There is time only for this...
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I work on a tool designed for mapping.
The tool is open-source (ASL 2.0).
I need you to start using it.
You need to be AWARE!
Reasons
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certain kind of very interesting innovationsscale mattersdifferent scales requires different approachesopen source helpsbeware of inertia
Do I have a chance - summary
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Questions?
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CreditsSimon Wardley - the technique creator