4g technology evolution, indian ecosystem and usage trends
DESCRIPTION
A look at how telecom technology evolution has led to 4G networks, an analysis of potential of 4G for various stakeholders such as Telcos and Media Broadcasters especially in India and key challenges for deploymentTRANSCRIPT
4G Telecom Trends
Global Trends and Key Success Factors for Indian deployment
10/22/20131 Priyom Sarkar
4G (LTE)
Technology and Implications
2
4G (LTE)- Index
Technology Evolution
LTE Architecture
Global LTE Ecosystem
Network rollouts
Devices
Indian Situation
Key Impact on Broadcast Sector Sector
4G User Profile
3
Mobile technologies have evolved from voice focused to
data focused with speeds reaching 170 Mbps with 4G
4
1G
• 1980
2G
• 1991
2.5G+
• 1999
3G
• 2001+
3.5G
• 2005
4G
• 2010
Do
wn
link S
pe
ed
s(n
ot to
scale
)
Analog GSM, CDMA(Digital introduced)
GPRS, EDGE(interim marketing release)
WCDMA (UMTS), CDMA 1x EV-DO(Reliable Video experience)
HSDPA, HSUPA, HSPA +(Interim marketing release)
LTE, WiMax(speeds comparable to FBB)
9.6 kbps
14.4 kbps
Realized
Theory
20-50 kbps
100-130 kbps
384-400 kbps
2-3 Mbps
5-8 Mbps
10-15 mbps
128 kbps
384 kbps
2Mbps
21.1 Mbps
42 Mbps
170 Mbps
Sources: 3GPP Alliance, UMTS Forum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Motorola, ZTE, Huawei, internal analysis
GSM: Global System for Mobile communications, TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access, GPRS: General Packet Radio Service, EDGE: Enhanced Data rates for GSM
Evolution, (W) CDMA: (Wideband) Code Division Multiple Access, EV-DO: Evolution Data-Optimized, HSDPA: High-Speed Downlink Packet Access, HSUPA: High-
Speed Uplink Packet Access, TD-SCDMA: Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access, LTE: Long Term Evolution, FBB: Fixed Broadband
Note: 5MHz
bandwidth
considered in
all cases
4G Architecture is optimized for fast speeds
5
LTE: Evolution from separate switching core sub-domains to one common IP core facilitating faster access
Voice is also treated as data (Voice over Internet Protocol – VoIP)
VoIP can be VoLTE (nascent – for data only operators) or CSFB (falls back to 2G for voice)
Source: Ericsson
Strong demand is expected for these high
speed networks
6
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Mobile Subscriptions by technology (in mn)
LTE
WCDMA/HSPA
GSM/EDGE only
TD-SCDMA
CDMA
Other
LTE Technology is already commercial and maturing quickly
LTE subscriptions projected to reach 2 billion by 2018 from 126 mn as on Q2 2013
LTE: 126 mn
on Q2,’13
Source: Ericsson, gsacom.com
Network operators worldwide have geared
up to meet expected user demand
7
First commercial LTE networks were launched by TeliaSonera in Norway and Sweden in December 2009
213 commercially launched LTE networks and 406 commercial network commitments in 81 countries
50 pre commitment trials in 9 more countries
TDD-LTE Deployments have started but lag
FDD deployments
8
Presently 21 commercial LTE TDD networks exist
Further 39 LTE TDD networks are either under trial or planned
Over 1000 LTE Devices exist but are
primarily concentrated towards FDD mode
1064 LTE User devices have been announced from 111 manufacturers
2600 and 1800 MHz have the highest devices support
For 2300 MHz, 147 products in the market as on Aug, 2013
Lack of ecosystem may reduce attractiveness as handsets may not support international roaming because of incompatible bands, duplex modes and frequencies in different countries
9
362
322
265 265247
231 230 229
142 128104
164147
49 4913
Spectrum (MHz), Band
222 TDD
LTE
Devices
850 FDD LTE
Devices
As on Aug, 2013; Source: gsacom.com
Smartphone128%
Routers incl
Hotspots81
55%
Dongles32
22%
Femtocell1
1%
Mobile Tablet
53%
Module16
11%
2300 MHz TD LTE
In India, Major data push is expected to
come from Reliance Jio, Bharti and Aircel
10
Source: DoT, GoI
Standalone BWA Standalone 3G 3G + BWA
Metro
Delhi
Mumbai
Kolkata
Circle A
Maharashtra
Gujarat
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu/Chennai
Circle B
Kerala
Punjab
Haryana
Uttar Pradesh (East)
Uttar Pradest (West)
Rajasthan
Madhya Pradesh
West Bengal
Circle C
Himachal Pradesh
Bihar
Orissa
Assam
North East
Jammu & Kashmir
Standalone BWA Circles 22 2 - - - - - - 5 1
Standalone 3G Circles NA 12 9 13 11 9 5 - NA NA NA
3G + BWA Circles NA 1 - - - - 8 22 NA NA NA
Circles with no 3G / BWA - 7 13 9 11 13 9 - 22** 17 21
*
*Bharti has purchased Qualcomm’s BWA licenses in Delhi, Mumbai, Haryana and Kerala
**Videocon has won spectrum (1800 MHz) in six circles : Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, MP, UP (E) & UP (W) in Nov, 2012 auction. As
the spectrum is liberalised, operators can use the airwave for any technology
Augere is trying to sell off its 4G spectrum in Madhya Pradesh – further consolidation expected as stated by Mr. Sibal
1800 MHz liberalized**
NA
3G uptake has been slow in India
11
Active 3G subs: ~32 mn out of 870 mn total subs on Q1, 2013
(3.5 % penetration)
Average 3G site coverage:16.5% for top 3 players in 3G
Source: mobiThinking, lughtreading.in, IDFC, internal analysis
7.2
6.4
5.1
3.3
9.7
31.7
RCOM Bharti Idea Vodafone Others* Total*
3G Active Subs (mn, Mar,13)
*Others and Total approximated from June 12 ratios of top 4 vs. others
25,604
17,481
11,659
19%
16%13%
0%
15%
30%
45%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Airtel Idea RCom
3G Site Coverage
3G Sites % of total sites
Indian 4G scenario is nascent and suffers from lack of ecosystem support
Globally most 4G devices are compatible with FDD
China Telecom recently announced $8bn tenders for TDD devices – ecosystem to develop
rapidly with RIL / Indian players using TDD
Auction for 700 MHZ spectrum going to be key for Indian 4G deployments as economics
improve dramatically
Content availability is low (recently TataSky announced LiveTV on mobile, Zee Anmol a FTA
GEC is also available on Mobile platform)
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FDD
Better Range
Lower latency
More developed ecosystem
TDD
Requires less spectrum
Faster downlink possible
Duplex Mode: Time Division
2300
Higher signal interference
Lower coverage
700
No. of towers/ capex required
one third
Better device compatibility
Spectrum: 2300 MHz
4G handsets need to be priced optimally in
price sensitive Indian market
13
192
1
1156
237
5
1301 6
0%
50%
100%
4G 3G
Indian 3G/4G* enabled Phones
>40k
30k-40k
20k-30k
10k-20k
<10k
13 680
*None of the 4G devices shown above presently support 2300 MHz TD-LTE
Only 13 devices supporting 4G (non 2300 MHz TD-LTE) vis-à-vis 680 supporting 3G; after unified
licensing scheme, these devices may eventually support networks for different operators
More than 90% of 4G devices are above 20k (all but 1) vis-à-vis 55% for 3G
Smartphones expected to rise from 12% in 2013 to 49% of new sales in 2017
Huawei (Ascend P1) and LG (Optimus G) and Karbonn have announced plans to launch devices soon
Operators such as RJIL, Bharti, Videocon, etc. are testing voice calling on 4G
Operators may overcome limited devices support via MiFi personal routers
Source: pricedealsindia.com compiled by comparing across online retailers, , IDC
76 118 120
169 177 203 215 209 198 191 182 4
4 2
6 11 16
29 57 93 127 171
81
122 123
175 188 219
244 267
291 318
353 Phone Sales in India (mn)
Feature Phones Smartphones Total
4G is changing user behaviour
More than half are in 18-34 years old
Avg 4G user is 5 yrs younger than 3G
customer
Almost even split between male and
female (58-42)
18-2421%
25-3431%
35-4423%
45-5416%
55-647%
65+2%
Who is the user?(Age group)
Video Downloading, Uploading & Streaming
26%
Social Media13%
Video Calling &
other8%
File Sharing and Storage
2%
Web Browsing & Email
40%
Music & app downloading
and streaming
11%
What is s/he doing?
26% of time spent is on video and ~55%
of all video watched is through Youtube
(~15% overall)
A quarter of 4G users spend three or
more hours on the mobile internet every
day – strong engagement
Source: EE H1 report from UK market
14
Broadcasters need to optimize their offering
to take advantage of 4G opportunity
• LTE opens up opportunity for VoD and Catchup TV on Mobile Networks
• Broadcasters need to identify and evaluate different pricing options for video units that may be most attractive for VoD
Programming
• Videos need to be available in multiple screens–mobile, tab, laptop, TV, etc.
Multi-Screen Support
• Push towards higher resolution (1080p, 4K and 3D) –for better realization
Multi-Format Support
• Focus on youth programming (52% users 18-34 years old)Targeting
15