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Second Election Round Survey

Press Release (for release 6 pm December 10 2011)Prediction of Results in the Second Election Round

Cairo

9 December 2011

Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS)

Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute (DEDI)



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Content

Key Findings2

About the survey1

Results: Prediction of the Second Election Round3



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About the Survey

• The results of the survey can be published from December 10, 2011 at 6 PMEgyptian time (or 5 PM GMT)

• The survey contains 1126 responses from randomly selected Egyptian nationals,aged 18 years and above in governorates, where voting will take place on theDecember 14: Giza, Beni Suef, Menoufia, Ismailia, Suez, Behera, Sohag,Aswan, Sharkia.

• The survey was conducted by Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies(ACPSS) from December 01 to December 8 via face-to-face interviews.

• Results can only be published using the quote "survey by Al-Ahram Centre forPolitical and Strategic Studies".

• This survey is supported by a group of international organizatoins led by the

Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute (DEDI).



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Parliamentary Elections:Three surveys that follows the three planned Election Rounds in Egypt

First ElectionRound

Governorates in Election Round

• Cairo, Alexandria, Luxor, Port Said,Al Fayoum, Kafr El Sheikh, Asyuit,Damietta, Red Sea (not included insurvey)

• 28th November

Election Round Start Date

Second ElectionRound

• Giza, Beni Suef, Menoufia, Ismailia,Suez, Behera, Sohag, Aswan,Sharkia.

Third ElectionRound

• Menia, Qalubiya, Gharbia, Dakhlia,North Sinai, South Sinai, El WadiEl Gadid, Matruh, Qena

• 14th December

• 3rd January



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People’s Assembly and Shura Council Election in EgyptThe Geographical Distribution of the Three Election Rounds in Egypt

New ValleyRed Sea

Giza

Minya

South Sinai

North Sinai

Asyut

Beheria

Cairo

Beni Suef

Faiyum

Qalyubia

Monufia

Gharbia

Ismailia

Kafr el-Sheikh

Dakahlia

Damietta

Port Said

Sharqia

MersaMatruh

Aswan

Luxor

Qena

Sohag

Suez

Alexandria Phase 1:

People’s Assembly – Nov. 28

Shura Council – Jan 29

Phase 3:People’s Assembly – Jan 3

Shura Council – Mar 4

Phase 2:

People’s Assembly – Dec. 14

Shura Council – Feb 15



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Content

Key Findings2

About the survey1




Summary of Key FindingsDecember 1-8 2011, Governorates of Second Election Round in Egypt

• The support for the Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim Brotherhood) hassteadily increased and the party looks to get a very strong result. The party

are expected to get around 50% of the votes in the second election round.• The Nour Party continues the strong showing from election round 1. The

Nour Party is expected to get support from around 20% of the decided voters,which is a big increase from previous polls done in the same governorates.

• Al Wafd is expected to be strongest liberal party in election round 2. The AlWafd Party has support of around 14%, while the also liberal Egyptian Bloc gainsupport from 5% of the decided voters. The second round of elections take placein many of Al Wafd’s traditional strongholds in upper Egypt.

• 4 out 10 voters are still undecided indicating some uncertainty about theelection result.

Source: Four surveys surveys from Dec. 1-8, Oct. 10-26, Sep. 11-21 and Aug. 5-17 with representative samples each between 800-1126 respondents of

Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of age across Giza, Beni Suef, Menoufia, Ismailia, Suez, Behera, Sohag, Aswan, Sharkia



Content

Key Findings2

About the survey1




Election to the People’s AssemblyDecided Voters

Decided and undecidedvoters (% of voters that willparticpate)

August September October December 10

Decided voters 43% 62% 49% 61%

Undecided 57% 38% 51% 39%





Election to the People’s AssemblyIssues on the Voters’ Agenda in August to December (% of Population)

Issues (% of all Egyptian above 18 years of age) August September October December 10

Security / Stability 27% 40% 36% 33,6%

Inflation 27% 23% 19% 24,3%

Unemployment 18% 21% 26% 22%

Corruption 4% 3% 5% 2,4%

Poverty and income reduction 4% 3% 4% 6,2%

Continue Removing Former Regime Figures 4% 1% 0% 0,3%

Establishing Democracy 1% 1% 1% 2,5%

Social justice 1% 0% 0% 1,7%

Other 15% 8% 9% 7%





Election to the People’s Assembly: Party Support(% of Decided Voters in Election Round 2 Governorates)

Party August September October December 10

Freedom and Justice Party 40,4% 46,1% 36,9% 51,6%

Al-Nour Party 5,3% 4,5% 12,5% 22,7%

Al-Wafd Party 14,0% 21,9% 26,7% 14,1%

Egyptian Bloc 7,7% 6,8% 3,1% 4,8%

The Union Party N/A 3,0% 7,3% 2,9%

The Continuing Revolution

CoalitionN/A 3,6% 3,1% 1,6%

Al-Wasat Party 1,2% 0,7% 1,5% 1,4%

Other 31,3% 13,4% 8,9% 0,9%





Election to the People’s Assembly: Party Support(% of Decided Voters in Election Round 2 Governorates)

0,9%

1,4%

Al-Wafd Party

40,4%

5,3%

14,0%

46,1%

4,5%

100,0%

August September October

Freedom and Justice Party

21,9%

100,0%

36,9%

12,5%

26,7%

100,0%100%

12/10/11

Egyptian Bloc

The Union Party

The Continuing Revolution Coalition

Al-Wasat Party

Al-Nour Party

Other

7,7%

1,2%

31,3%

6,8%

3,0%3,6%

0,7%

13,4%

3,1%

7,3%

3,1%1,5%

8,9%

51,6%

22,7%

14,1%

4,8%

2,9%1,6%

100,0%





Election to the People’s Assembly: Party SupportComparison of Election Round 1 (official results) and Round 2 (prediction)

Party/Election Round

Election Round 1

(Official Results)

Election Round 2

(Prediction)Freedom and Justice Party 36,7% 51,6%

Al-Nour Party 24,4% 22,7%

Al-Wafd Party 7,1% 14,1%

Egyptian Bloc 13,4% 4,8%

The Union Party 0,4% 2,9%

The Continuing Revolution Coalition 3,5% 1,6%

Al-Wasat Party 4,3% 1,4%

Other 10,2% 0,9%


Egyptian Nationality above 18 years of age across Giza Beni Suef Menoufia Ismailia Suez Behera Sohag Aswan Sharkia

4th poll press release

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