5Data Traps to Avoidwhen testing your ValueProposition Design

Overview of the Testing Process

Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Prioritize Test

Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress

Avoid failure by thinkingcritically about your data.Experiments can’t predict futuresuccesses with 100% accuracy.

trap #1

False Positive Traprisk: Occurs when your testing data misleads you to conclude, for example, that your customer has a pain, when in fact that is not true.

trap #1

False Positive Traptips: Test “the circle” before you test “the square”. Understand what’s relevant to customers and avoid being misled by positive signals for irrelevant value propositions.Design different experiments for the samehypothesis before making important decisions.

trap #2

False Negative Traprisk: Not seeing things that are there.Occurs when your experiment fails to detect, for example, a customer job it was designed to unearth.

trap #2

False Negative Traptips: Make sure your test is adequate.Dropbox initially tested customer interest with Google Adwords. They invalidated their hypotheses because the ads didn’t perform. Yet, people didn’t search because it was a new market, not for a lack of interest.

trap #3

The “Local Maximum” Traprisk: Missing out on the real potential.Occurs when you conduct experiments that optimize around a local maximum, while ignoring the larger opportunity. Positive testing feedback might get you stuck with a much less profitable model while there is a more profitable one.

trap #3

The “Local Maximum” Traptips: Focus on learning rather than optimizing. Don’t hesitate to go back to designing better alternatives if the testing data is positive, but the numbers feel like they should be better.

trap #4

The “Exhausted Maximum” Traprisk: Overlooking limitations (e.g. of a market). Occurs when you think an opportunity is larger than it is in reality.

trap #4

The “Exhausted Maximum” Traptips: Design tests that prove the potentialbeyond the immediately addressed test subjects.

trap #5

The Wrong Data Traprisk: Searching in the wrong place.Occurs when you abandon an opportunity because you are looking at the wrong data.

trap #5

The Wrong Data Traptip: Go back to designing other alternatives before you give up.

trap #5

Create products and services customer want. Start with your best value proposition.

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