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Prof. Doutora Maria do Rosário Partidário

Metodologias e técnicas de AIA /

EIA Methodologies and techniques "

"

Mestrado em Engenharia do Ambiente"Master on Environmental Engineering"Impactes Ambientais / Environmental Impacts 5/9"

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Content

1.  Significance of environmental impacts 2.  Methods and techniques 3.  Uncertainty in impacts prediction 4.  Current state of the environment 5.  Alternatives identification and comparison

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Bibliography!CANTER, L. 1996, Environmental Impact

Assessment. McGraw-Hill. (ch 3, ch 15)"

Morris, P. and Therivel, R. (Eds), 2001. Methods of Environmental Impact Assessment, 2nd edition, Spon Press, London (2008 reprint).

Partidário e Jesus, 2003. Fundamentos de Avaliação do Impacte Ambiental. Universidade Aberta. "

Significant impacts Canadian guidance

•  Determine adverse negative impacts

•  Determine magnitude, including cumulative impacts

• Determine geographical extension of negative impacts

• Determine duration and frequency

•  Determine the degree of reversibility

•  Assess its probability of occurrence

•  Assess the scientific uncertainty of the probability of occurrence of a significant impact

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Key elements to establish the significance (importance) of an

impact •  Cultural Importance •  Social Importance •  Ecological Relevance •  Environmental Patterns •  Statistic significance •  Technical issues •  Political/institutional issues

Themes of interest in EIA

•  Public health •  Safety and security, occupational

health •  Vulnerable groups •  Gender •  Economic organization and well-

being •  Population growth •  Cultural and aesthetic values

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Impact assessment – criteria for significant impacts - USA (1/2)

•  health and safety

•  unique characteristics in a geographical area, such as historical and cultural resources, wetlands, scenic rivers, critical areas for nature conservation

•  human environmental quality at highly controversial levels

•  Unceratin, unique or unknown risks on the human environment

•  Precedent for future projects with significant impacts

Impact assessment – criteria for significant impacts - USA (2/2)

• Cumulative impacts

•  destruction of designated buildings, places or objects (cultural and historical) or scientific resources

•  species or designated habitats

•  Risk of violation of any law or regulation for environmental protection

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Finding the significance of impacts All the possible effects of proposed project

Significant impacts

Impact analysis  Decision factors  Environmental

relevance Scaling impacts

Environmental filter

Methods and techniques in EIA

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EIA methodologies Introduction!

EIA methodologies – approaches developed to identify, predict and value changes of an action. Reflected in the sequence of activities, steps, as well on the range of environmental issues considered (physical, chemical, biological, socioeconomic, cutlural, landscape values and processes)

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•  Uses methods and techniques to quantify or to qualify those changes. All aspects and variables can be measured, problem is to value them.

EIA methodologies Introduction! 2/3

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The development of METHODOLOGIES to assess impacts depend on:!

a)  The relationships between territorial elements (or characteristics) and the actions

b)  The specific measurements and the necessary information to estimate the impacts

c)  The mitigation measures, compensation and follow-up

EIA methodologies Introduction! 3/3

Objectives of methodologies!1.  Understand the nature and location of the project and

possible alternatives"

2.  Identify factors of analysis and assessment objectives"

3.  Preliminary identification of impacts and scoping"

4. Baseline studies and evolution in the absence of projects"

5. Prediction and assessment of impacts and alternatives comparison"

6. Mitigation"

7. Monitoring and impacts management"

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Example of methods!1.  Experts judgement

2.  Checklists and matrices

3.  Flowcharts and decision trees

4.  Multicriteria analysis

5.  Case comparison

6.  Simulation Models

7.  GIS and map overlays

8.  Contingency analysis

9.  CBA, CEA, other economic evaluation

Checklist • Structured list of environmental factors potentially affected."• Extensive and complete. Main function: identify ALL possible

consequences of the proposal"• Should enable identification of impacts on:

 Soil  Water  Atmosphere  Flora  Fauna  Resources  Recreation  Cultural

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1.  Simple : no information needed on magnitude or importance of impacts"

2.  Descriptive, require information on magnitude or importance of impacts as well as indication on prediction methods and indicators."

3.  Questionnaires, three types of answer: “yes”, “no”, “may be”"

Three types:

Checklists

Simple checklists Impactes Project phase

Design Construction Operation Abandonnement 1. On water 1.1. Poluição 1.2. Decréscimo do caudal 1.3. Cambio de uso

X

X

X

2. On air 2.1. Poluição 2.2. Incremento do ruído 2.3. Presencia de maus cheiros

X

X X

3. On climate 3.1. Cambio de temperatura 3.2. Aumento das chuvas 3.3. Aumento da evaporação 3.4. Aumento de nebulosidade

X X X X

4. On soil 4.1. Perda de solo 4.2. Dunas 4.3. Acidificação 4.4. Salinizaçao 4.5. Geração de pântanos 4.6. Problemas de drenagem

X X X X

X

5. On vegetation and fauna 5.1. Perda de biodiversidade 5.2. Extinção de espécies 5.3. Alteração sobre espécies endémicas 5.4. Alteração sobre espécies protegidas

X X X X

6. On population 6.1. Perda de base de recursos 6.2. Alterações culturais 6.3. Perdas de recursos arqueológicos 6.4. Traslado de população

X X

X X

7. Other 7.1. Perda de valores paisagísticos

X

X

X

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Issue Yes May be No Observation Noise. Will the project:

• Increase existing noise levels? ! ! !

Vegetation. Will the project: • Change the diversity or productivity of

species or the number of any species (including trees, shrubs, aquatic plants, etc.)?

! ! !

Energy. Will the project:

• Use substantial amounts of energy? ! ! !

Transports and traffic. Will the project: • Generate additional traffic? ! ! !

• Have effects or increase demand on parking infrastructures?

! ! !

Public services Will the project have effects on, or result in, need for new services or changes in the following areas:

• Fire services?

• ..... ! ! !

Public reaction. Is the project:

• Potentially controverse? ! ! !

• Conflictual with objectives in environmental plans locally adopted?

! ! !

Chec

klis

ts:

impa

ct id

enti

fica

tion

EIA process and activities.

EIA applications (sessions 5 and 6)

INTERNATIONAL MASTER IN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY / Professor Maria do Rosário Partidário

Checklists: environmental sources

Key criteria Key Environmental sources Air and climate changes

! Air quality levels; ! Sulfur dioxide levels; ! CO2 emmission

Protected areas ! Designated areas (ha) under national or international protection (for example Natura 2000 – Special Conservation Areas and Special protection Areas

Natural resources

....

Water .... Soil .... Landscape .... Noise .... Coastal areas ....

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Checklists

Advantage

•  structured list of key potential factors for analysis or key impacts - aide-memoire;

•  often result from experts judgement published by public / international organizations;

•  enable interdisciplinary discussions;

•  preparatory stage for matrix assessment (checklist of actions /activities and checklist of environmental components);

Disadvantage

•  Guided tour - standard analysis, misses specific issues

Matrices!Double entrance tables, permit establishment of relationships: "1.  Project actions or activities (causes) "2.  And the environmental factors (effects)""

Functions:""- Preliminary identification of impacts (scoping)"- Comparative analysis of alternatives"- Impact assessment"-Presentation of evaluation results"

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Matrices!a b c d e

a 2 1

+8 5

b 7 2

8 8

1 3

9 7

Leopold Matrix (Leopold et al., 1971). 100 causes per 100 effects.

Magnitude (left-hand corner) and Importance or significance (right-hand corner). Scale 1 to 10. Values can still be signaled as positive ( “+”) or negative (“-”).

Matrices – Basic rules "1. Objectives and assumptions clear."2. Matrices can be used creatively to identify indirect

impacts, cumulative impacts or contributions to mitigation measures."

3.  Its better to use colour codes and graphical symbols in matrices."

4. The development ofa matrix does not imply that it needs to be used in the report, it may simply be an element of work "

5. Each impact analysis needs to be contextualized."

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FLOWCHARTS!

Flowcharts and impacts trees, including network diagrams, enable the analysis of the inter-relationship between causes and effects and enables de analysis of indirect and cumulative impacts. """

Intensification of cultivated areas

D5: Roquefort and Féta separated ; Méjan

specialised in Féta : industrialists set

volumes and rules

Intensive ovine breeding

Strategies of farms: to maximise profitability

Arable lands concentrated on high

potential lands

HuntingD6: End of local measures to pine control

Extension of pine forest: fast

landscape closure

Increase of wild ungulate

populations

Incomes maintained for some farms thanks to the development of labels and niche products

integrated in industrial rangesTourism Local agriculture with

high value products

D4: End of direct payments

Land abandonmentStrong decrease of farms number

Shrub encroachment,

extension of pine forest: fast

landscape closure and cultivated land turned in

fallows

Strong increase of forest areas & strong

fire risks

Strong decrease of rangelands and

grasslands & strong erosion of biodiversity

Decrease of cultivated areas

FLOWCHARTS!

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Fluxograma de impactes da aplicação aérea de herbicida (Bisset, 1983)

Aplicação aérea de herbicidas

Contaminação da água por herbicidas

Decréscimo do oxigénio dissolvido

Mortalidade de vegetação para alem da pretendida com o

herbicida

Perda de vegetação

ripícola

Contaminação de cadeia

alimentar no meio aquático

Decréscimo do crescimento de

algas, fitoplancton, etc

Aumento da temperatura da

água

Contaminação de cadeia alimentar no meio terrestre

Aumento do escoamento superficial

Aumento da perda de água

Aumento dos sedimentos

Aumento da carência de

oxigénio dissolvido

Danos na desova

Poluição da água por sólidos flutuantes

Aumento da erosão

Aumento do caudal

Flowcharts / Networks

Advantages: - integrated assessment, instead of discipline by discipline -  inter-relations between causes and effects, including indirect impacts -  cumulative impact assessment -  communication (when simple). Disadvantages: - complexity (especially visually complex) - difficult to distinguish and quantify magnitudes (and importance) of different impacts

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Mapping spatial areas

Overlays and GISs

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Cartográfica Área de análise

IMPACTE 3

Ruidos

IMPACTE 4

Alteración cobertura vegetal

IMPACTES ACUMULADOS

Área de influencia

IMPACTE 1 Lavado de suelos

IMPACTE 2

Modificación de hábitats

Overlays and GISs

Arcview

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Definition of areas of maximum infiltration

IFI=  valorTHS+valorT+valorAGUT  Fonte: Luis Ribeiro, PU Carregueira, 2009

Sinopse dos Métodos de avaliação de impactes vs. etapas do AIA

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There is no single ideal method!

Uncertainty in impacts prediction

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Sources of uncertainty: •  information on baseline and on the project (quantity, precision, reliability) •  associated to the model •  preparation of the model •  application of the model

quantity: spatial and temporal resolution, reading mistakes, bias and imprecisions associated to the technique.

precision: detail on measurements

reliability: correctin of such measurements

The more precise is the information the more difficult it is to get reliable data.

Uncertainties related to:

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Baseline characterization

Characterization should: "•  limit itself to the relevant affected factors" "• be proportional to the probable significant impact""

1st step- establish objectives in information collection""Do not collect and present available information just because it is available, if it is irrelevant, concentrate efforst on relevant information"

Baseline

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2nd step- analysis of available information and verification of such information to the defined objectives."

- spatial and temporal representativeness"

tempo

variá

vel a

mbi

enta

l

t1 t2 tempo

variá

vel a

mbi

enta

l

t1 t2

3rd stage- identify additional information needs, field work/ time available"

4th stage- synthesize collected information and identify gaps in knowledge and how important they are to the keyobjectives"

"

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•  Methods vary depending on natural, social or economic variables"

•  Function of scoping and impacts identification"

Criteria for selection of methods:""-  Objectives"

-  impact indicators (relationship with monitoring)"

-  limitation: time and budget"

Baseline - methods

Prediciton of impacts - Methods Prediction of impacts is based on the quantification or descriptive qualification of impacts identified. Prediction impacts are clearly dependent on impacts and disciplines.

Type of methods: • Experts opinion • Case comparison • Use of models • Experiments

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Prediciton of impacts - Models Physical models – representation of the reality ina reduced scale, simulating processes. (Exs. Wind tunnels or coastal area physical models that simulate waves)

Visual models – elaboration of images that represent the environment before and after the development of a project and its alternatives. It can also address the timing dimension (e.g., seasonal changes, vegetation growth).

Mathematic models- maths or statistic simulations applied to the deterministic or probabilistic calculation, based on quantitative values.

Cartographic models- representation of reality that will be affected by the project through maps or charts. Cartographic overlaps enable impact preditions.

Impact Assessment Meaning (or importance) of an impact depends on its scale (geographic scale and duration) and its intensity.

Impacts can be positive or negative. Significative negative impacts may occur even when the global balance of impacts is positive.

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Alternatives comparative assessment

“The object of analysis in alternatives assessment is to define the merits and disadvantages of realistic alternatives, enabling to decision-makers and to the public a clear basis for the choice of option” (World Bank, 1996)

Technical, economic, social and environmental viability of alternatives: the proponent needs to be willing to develop any of the alternatives being considered

Alternatives comparative assessment

Analyse separately the sets of alternatives, whenver possible.

A B C1

2

3

4

5

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Alternatives comparative assessment In relation to decision factors

• Define the alternatives to be analysed

• Define the factors of analysis (decision factors)

• Weighting the decision factor

Decision factors Alternatives

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5

F1

F2

F3

F4

Methods for alternatives comparative assessment "

Multi-criteria assessment"

1.  Quantitative and qualitative assessment"

2.  Weighting the decision factors"

Methods: "Process of nominal group (group intercative technique)"1) Nominal generation of ideas (silent and independent) "2) Table checklist"3) Group discussion (clarification, evaluation) (e.g. Delphi method)"4) Order voting or assessment in a numerical scale "Delphi method"Preparation of an individual questionnaire per panel member.

Communication of results to each panel member and new round of voting."

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Preparation of the following table for experts selection and assessment"

Reduzida importância

Elevada importância

Total Peso Factor (ou área de impact e )

1 2 3 4 5 F 1 F 2 F 3 F 4 F 5 … .

1.  Each experts fills in the table based on comparison of factors "

2.  Calculation of total"

3.  Weight results from the division of each factor by the total "

4.  Calculate the average of the tables as filled in by each expert"

5.  Each expert compares the average of the group with its own value"