5 - stockholm resilience centre
TRANSCRIPT
Surviving the Anthropocene
Challenges for the 21st Century
Will Steffen Executive Director, The ANU Climate Change Institute
The Australian National University
Temperature Change through Earth History
Zalasiewicz and Williams 2009
Human Development and Earth System Dynamics
Evolution of fully modern humans in Africa
Hunter-gatherer societies only
Beginning of
agriculture
Aborigines arrive in Australia
Beginning of agriculture
Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman
Human Development and Earth System Dynamics
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
First migration of fully modern humans
out of Africa
Migrations of fully modern humans
from South Asia to Europe
The Anthropocene Epoch
Steffen, Crutzen, McNeill (2007) Ambio 36: 614-621 Crutzen (2002) Nature 415: 23 Costanza, Graumlich, Steffen (2006) Dahlem W’shop Rep 96 Steffen et al. (2011) Phil Trans Roy Soc A 369: 842-867
The Anthropocene: conceptual evolution
2000: Paul Crutzen - introduced “Anthropocene” to emphasise that the Earth had left the Holocene due to human activities 1824+: Greenhouse theory - J. Fourier, J. Tyndall, S. Arrhenius, R. Revelle 1873: Stoppani - ‘anthropozoic era’; 1874: George Perkins Marsh - The Earth as modified by human action (also Turner et al. 1990) 1920s: Concept of the Noösphere - E. Suess, P. Teilhard de Chardin, V. Vernadsky, E. Le Roy, H. Bergson 1924+: Concept of global biogeochemistry - V. Vernadsky Modern era: Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth, E.F. Stoermer 1980s; Andrew Revkin’s Global Warming 1992; James Lovelock - Gaia
J. Grinevald, in Steffen et al. 2011
The stages of the Anthropocene
The Anthropocene is defined with respect to the Holocene, not just by human influence on the global environment. Human impacts must push the Earth System well beyond the Holocene envelope of variability.
Pre-Anthropocene Before 1800 Stage 1 1800 - 1945/1950 Stage 2 1945/1950 - 2000 Stage 3 2000 - ?
Steffen et al. 2007
Steffen et al. 2007 and references therein
Anthropocene stages: CO2 as an indicator
Holocene envelope of variability
Beginning of directional trend
Outside of Holocene envelope of variability
Before the Anthropocene: Pre-Anthropocene Events (Pre-1800)
•”Fire-Stick Farming” - use of fire as a tool to modify Ecosystems to favour particular desired species and to aid in the hunt. Fire was most often used to convert dry forests and woodlands into savannas and grasslands, and to maintain ecosystems in those states. • Megafauna extinctions - large-scale (continental) extinctions of large Pleistocene mammals by hunting, perhaps in combination with climatic changes - North America, northern Eurasia, Australia. • No discernable effect on Earth System functioning at the global scale
Anthropocene Stage 1 (1800-1945/1950)
• Evidence - increase in GHG concentrations, widespread
deforestation of temperate forests, etc. • Industrial Revolution - steam engine, fossil fuel energy systems, rapid and wide spread of these energy systems • Flow-on effects - more efficient techniques for land clearing; synthetic fertiliser; more reliable water supply and better sanitation, leading to better public health. These developments, in turn, led to an increase in population AND their ability to consume.
Human Imprint on Marine Ecosystems
Fisheries collapse – The Atlantic cod stocks off the east
coast of Newfoundland collapsed in 1992, forcing the closure of the fishery
– Depleted stocks may not recover even if harvesting is significantly reduced or eliminated entirely
– About 50% of all fish stocks are fully exploited, 15-18% are overexploited, and 9-10% have been depleted or are recovering from depletion
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005, Steffen et al. 2004
Human Imprint on the Terrestrial Biosphere
From landscapes to genes…
Massive change in biodiversity
Land clearing Introduction of new species Altered disturbance regimes Redistribution of water resources; changes in nutrient capital Direct removal of species through hunting and fishing Mineral extraction
Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO (Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)
Caribbean
North America
Central America
South America
West
Africa
Oceania
East &
South East Asia
South
Asia
USSR
North West Africa
Western Europe
Middle
East
1~5 5~10 10~15 15~20 20~30 30~50 50<
Importer based, over 5 km3/y
km3/y
78.5
33.5
46.2
57.5 38.8
36.4
Economic Globalization: Virtual Water Flows
(Cereals only)
Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source: Mann et al. 2003 (EOS)
The multi-faceted nature of global change
From Steffen et al. 2004
Anthropocene Stage 2
(1945 - 2010/2020)
The changing ’human enterprise’, from 1750
to 2000.
Note the start of the ’Great Acceleration’ around 1950, when
many activities began or accelerated sharply.
From: Steffen et al. 2004
Responses of the biophysical Earth System to the accelerating ’human enterprise’. The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the Great Acceleration in the human enterprise.
National Geographic, March 2011
I = P x A x T
• Equity issues profoundly complicate the challenge of global change. • In the Great Acceleration technology and especially consumption have overtaken population as a driver of change.
Triggers of the Great Acceleration
• Globalisation: Global networks of communication & finance -
crossed a threshold of connectivity
• Emergence of ”armies of scientists & technologists” from WWII
• Dramatic shifts in political & economic structures/institutions
• Establishment of the Bretton Woods institutions
• World economy based on capitalist/neo-liberal economic principles
• Increasing commoditisation of public goods
• ’Growth imperative’ - increasing consumption per capita
Knowledge Science Technology
Population Energy
Institutions
Production/ Consumption
Political Economy
From: Hibbard et al. 2006
The Changing Human-Environment Relationship under the Great Acceleration
Complex impacts of globalisation • Mixed environmental impacts at local levels but homogenisation of the environment at the global level • Loss of diversity of cultural values • Negative environmental impacts of debt crisis
Urbanisation and the environment • Different experiences and understanding of nature between urban and rural dwellers • Increased wealth, rising consumption expectations • Transformation of rural-urban linkages - ’footprints’
Governance • Shift to free-market economic systems • Decentralisation & privatisation of environmental management
Source: Global Footprints Network 2005
Global Footprint of the Human Enterprise
Source: Moran et al., Ecological Economics, 64, 470-474, 2008
Sustainable development quadrant
The Anthropocene Stage 3: Sustainability or Collapse
Where on Earth are We Going?
Collapse of Early Civilisations
Top: East African civilisation (from Verschuren et al. 2000) Middle: Classic Mayan Civilisation (from Hodell et al. 2001) Bottom: Akkadian civilisation (Syria) (from Cullen et al. 2000)
The Greenland Norse
Year AD
All samples
-21
-20,5
-20
-19,5
-19
-18,5
-18
-17,5
-17
-16,5
-16
-15,5
-15
-14,5
-14
-13,5
-13
Tj#
165
Tj#
18
Tj#
28
Ø35a
Tj#
11
Ø35c
Ø35b
Ø48a
V51#197
V51#240
Tj#
12
Ø48b
Tj#
25
Tj#
16
Tj#
27
Tj#
26
Tj#
19
Ø35a
V7#175
Ø47#20
Ø47#22
Ø167
Ø111#205
Ø149#214
Ø149#216
V51#258
Ø111#208
Ø111#210
Ø47#21
V51#253
V51#1
Ø66#24
V51#250
V51#256
V7K
-4117
Ø23a
Ø149#220
Ø149#221
Ø149#222
Ø149#224
Ø149#226
Ø149#227
Ø149#228
V51#249
V51#255
V51#184
V51#247
V51#3
V51#5
Ø149#215
V51#6
Ø1b
Ø23b
Ø111#206
Ø111#207
Ø23a
Ø149#9
Ø149#213
Ø149#8
V51#254
V51#4
Ø66#23
V7#174
Ø149#10
V7K
-4120
Ø149#7
V51#2
Ø111#13
Ø1a
Ø111#15
Ø111#14
C13
AU I - c. 980 - 1160 AU II - c. 1160 - 1300 AU III - c. 1300 - 1450 Arch dates
Jette Arneborg
Lower Rhone Valley 1000 BC - 1000 AD
Socio-environmental Co-evolution: Resilience and Constraints
Roman Settlement Patterns
Sander van der Leeuw
150014751450142514001375135013251300127512501225120011751150112511001075105010251000
Droughts 25th percentile threshold
Droughts 10th percentile threshold
Reorganizati
on from
large
villages to
dispersed
hamlets
Re-
aggrega
tion
Regional
depopulation
Michelle Hegmon
Comparative Case Studies: Resilience, Transformation
and Collapse
Dennis Holloway
Possible Explanations for the Collapse of Early Civilisations
• Tainter - increasing complexity & decreasing resilience
• Friedman - waves of ’globalisation’ to an upper limit of system compatibility • Diamond - inflexibility of core societal values • Scarborough (Maya) - self-organisation - networks of alliances and exchanges; adaptation to dynamics of natural ecosystems. Collapse due to centralisation of power around two super-cities and distortion of network flows.
The 21st Century: A bright future of continued growth? Or…
…saililng towards a global collapse?
The new world of the Anthropocene
The Anthropocene, following the lost world of the Holocene, holds serious challenges for society.
Source: J. Zalasiewicz
“…if we focus on other features of the past than humanity’s progress, we might find a human history marked by crises, regime shifts, disasters, and constantly changing patterns of adjustment to limits and confines. Indeed, this now emerges as a new historical meta-narrative, linking humanity’s creative past with its destructive consequences and nature-culture interplay…”
Sverker Sörlin & Paul Warde 2007
On the techno-scientific approach to progress
Peak Oil: A production or a supply-demand problem?
Sorrell et al. 2009
Oil and food price trends, 1999 - 2011
World Bank Commodity Price Data
FAO Food Price Index
The Human Enterprise: Early Globalised
PREMODERN SOCIETIES
MODERN STATES
GLOBALISING COMMUNITY
1 % EXXON-MOBIL DAIMLER-CHRYSLER MITSUBISHI CITIGROUP
14 %
USA JAPAN SINGAPORE HONG KONG WESTERN EUROPE AUSTRALIA/NZ TAIWAN
5 % SOUTH KOREA (CHINA, INDIA 10%) ESTONIA HUNGARY THAILAND
15 % BRAZIL EGYPT RUSSIA SYRIA (CHINA, INDIA 40%)
65 % ANGOLA (CHINA, INDIA 50%) RWANDA SUDAN ZAIRE
T. Ries, Swedish Institute of International Affairs
Steffen et al. 2004
General Issues: Risk and Vulnerability
Weekly Food Supply
The poor, the marginal, the uneducated and the geographically vulnerable suffer the greatest risks. Risks are projected to be much greater for future generations than for the current generation Source: A.J. McMichael
Steffen et al. 2004
?
NASA GISS 2011
Friedlingstein et al. 2010
Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, 2005
In August 2002, massive flooding in
Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and
Eastern Europe
January 2003, Canberra, Australia Massive bushfires destroy 500 homes, kill 3 people, injure 300 more
February 2009, Victoria, Australia Massive bushfires destroy several villages, kill 170 people
Have we underestimated how fast the Earth System can change?
K. Steffen
A. Sorteberg
After Schellnhuber 2002
Switch and Choke Points In the Earth System
“Business-as-usual is dead” “This is an externality like none other” “Risks, scales and uncertainties are enormous” “…a big probability of a devastating outcome” “We have to look at non-marginal changes in economics””
Lord Nicholas Stern:
Plenary Presentation, Climate Change Congress, Copenhagen, March 2009
Southern China: Loss of Biological Diversity
Photo: ICIMOD
Biodiversity in the 21st century
– Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty)
– 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source: Mann et al. 2003 (EOS)
Image: NASA
’Night Lights’ of Earth
2000
From: Nakicenovic 2002
Simulated Night Lights
2070
From: Nakicenovic 2002
Simulated Night Lights
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Glo
bal
T
emper
ature
(°
C)
IPCC Projections 2100 AD
N.H
. T
emp
erat
ure
(°C
)
0
0.5
1
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Now
“Committed” Climate Change
Loss of Greenland ice sheet
Earth System moves to a new state; modern civilisation collapses
Large biodiversity loss; coral reefs disappear
Feedbacks push climate change higher; abrupt changes much more likely; massive impacts to humans
Petit et al. 1999
Variation of CO2, T, CH4 in the late Quaternary
The Earth as a complex system
Scheffer 2009
Petit et al. 1999; Keeling and Whorf 2000
Atmospheric CO2: outside the Holocene envelope
The Earth as a complex system
Scheffer 2009
Anthropocene
Holocene Pre-Anthropocene events
Anthropocene Stage 3?
Anthropocene Stages 1 and 2
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Glo
bal
T
emper
ature
(°
C)
IPCC Projections 2100 AD
N.H
. Tem
pera
ture
(°
C)
0
0.5
1
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Now
“Committed” Climate Change
Earth System moves to a new state; modern civilisation collapses?
IGBP PAGES
Time
Ris
k o
f co
lla
pse
; D
eg
ree
of
un
-su
sta
ina
bil
ity Present
Sustainability Target
Short-term Pragmatism
Short-term policy actions
Long-term and foundational issues
Fischer, Manning et al. 2007
The Sustainability Gap
The “Sustainability Hierarchy”…
…rather than the “Triple Bottom Line”
After I. Lowe 2005
Economies
Social Systems
Earth’s Life Support System
Hurt not the earth, neither the sea, nor the trees.
Revelation 7:3, the Holy Bible Most Gracious is Allah, Who reveals Himself In the Qur'an, in man's Intelligence And in the nature around man. Balance and Justice, Goodness and Care, Are the Laws of His Worlds.... Summary from Surah 55, the Holy Qur'an
Perspectives on the Human-Environment Relationship
Without the willow, how to know the beauty of the wind. Lao She, Buddhist monk We're only here for a short amount of time to do what we've been put here to do, which is to look after the country. We're only a tool in the cycle of things. …(we) go out into the world and help keep the balance of nature. It's a big cycle of living with the land, and then eventually going back to it.... Vilma Webb, Noongar People, Australian Aborigines, from: 'Elders: Wisdom from Australia's Indigenous Leaders'
© S
ebas
tião
Sal
gad
o
…The future will depend on the nature of human aspirations, values, preferences and choices…
Sustainability or Collapse?