6 2 mohsin iqbal - climate change impacts 21 dec 12 updated
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Impact of Climate Change on Water and Food in Pakistan
M. Mohsin Iqbal and M. Arif Goheer Global change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad
PSSP (Pakistan Strategy Support Program)
1st Annual Conference on ‘Productivity , Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Pakistan’
Islamabad, 13-14 December 2012
Most Serious Climate Change Concerns of Pakistan
The Task Force on Climate Change (TFCC)* has identified the following major concerns:
∗ Water Security ∗ Food Security ∗ Energy Security ∗ Vulnerability of Coastal areas *Set up by Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan in Oct
2008.The Final Report of TFCC was published on Feb 2010.
∗ River inflows from the snow and glacier melt from Himalayan Region : (97-172 million acre feet, maf)
∗ Rainfall: 180 maf Monsoon : July to September (80% of total) Winter rains: December to January (20% of total) ∗ Groundwater: 50 maf
Fresh Water Resources of Pakistan
Source: TFCC, 2010
∗ Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the
next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows; then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent 50 years (World Bank, 2006).
∗ Simulations conducted by GCISC show that with the rise in temperature and recession of glaciers, not only the flows of Indus River System will be reduced but the pattern of its seasonal flows will also be changed considerably.
Implications of Climate Change on Indus River Flows
5
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Ja
n
Feb
Mar Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Disc
harg
e (C
umec
s)
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): ∆ Temp: +3°C, ∆ Glacier Area: - 50%
Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
Source: GCISC, 2009
Annual Flows of Western Rivers in Pakistan
Source: Indus River System Authority, 2010
7
Total Water Storage Capacity of Pakistan
Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela Dams)
Original : 18.4 MAF* (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)
Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)
Present (2012) : 14.2 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)
*MAF: Million Acre Feet
Source: WAPDA, 2011 (http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-index.html)
Pakistan’s Water Scenario for 2025 Year 2004 2025
Availability 104 MAF 104 MAF
Requirement (including drinking water)
115 MAF 135 MAF
Overall Shortfall 11 MAF 31 MAF
Water Demand/ Consumption
Source: Ten Year Perspective Development Plan 2001-11, Planning Commission
Major Water Using Sectors in Pakistan
Sr. No.
Sectors Water usage (%)
2000*
2010**
1 Agricultural 96
69
2 Industrial 2 23
3 Municipal 2
8
* Bridges, Geoff; Asian Development Bank (2007). Asian Water Development Outlook 2007. Country Paper Pakistan ** Ministry of Environment ( Cited in Economic Survey of Pakistan , 2010)
Agriculture Systems of Pakistan
Total land area: 79.61 mha Cultivated area: 22.05 mha (28% of total) Irrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated) Rainfed area : 3.67 mha (16% of cultivated)
∗ Pakistan’s agriculture system is predominantly irrigated with sizeable
rainfed area ∗ Irrigated agriculture provides 90% of Pakistan's food requirements, 2o%
of its GDP and employment to 60% of the population. ∗ Irrigated areas are vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier
melt in the wake of climate change ∗ Semi-arid and Arid areas are vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity
and frequency of rainfalls.
Impacts of Climate Change on Crops
∗ Shortening of Growing Season Length (due to high
temperature) ∗ Loss in crop yields ∗ Susceptibility of reproductive growth stages to heat waves ∗ Changes in river flows (less water available at critical sensitive
growth stages) ∗ Increased evapotranspiration ∗ Increased land degradation (Waterlogging, Soil Salinization,
Wind and water Erosion)
Future Food Demand by 2025
Sr. No.
Food Item Present (2010) Projected (2025)*
1 Food grains 25,824 32,092
2 Edible Oil 2,256 2,803
3 Meat 2,935 3,647
4 Milk 15,900 19,758
5 Fruits 8,868 11,020
6 Vegetables 4,035 5,014
*Estimates are based on population increase only; changes in dietary habits were not considered.
000 tonnes
Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Base 2020 2050 2080
Whe
at Y
ield
(kg/
ha)
Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous
Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains
Source: GCISC, 2009
Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
1990 2025 2055 2085 Year
Ric
e y
ield
(kg
/ha)
A2 Scenario
B2 Scenario
Source: GCISC, 2009
Simulated Crop Water Requirements due to Climate Change (Increasing Temperature)
15
∗ Rice-Wheat System Net Irrigation Requirements (NIR) are likely to increase by 3% for
rise in temperature of 0.90C (upto 2020) and 6% for 1.80C (upto 2050).
∗ Maize-Wheat system NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.80C rise in
temperature. ∗ Cotton-Wheat System NIR will increase by 3 and 7% for 0.9 and 1.8 rise in temperature.
Source: Shahid et. Al., 2011
Conclusions Challenges to WATER
Variability in River Flows and Flow Patterns, due to climate change driven melting of HKH glaciers.
∗ Decreasing per capita availability of water and increasing demand by different sectors
∗ Inadequate water storage capacity coupled with loss in existing storage capacity with time
∗ Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events
Challenges to FOOD ∗ Crop yields decreasing due to increasing temperature, except in the northern
mountainous areas ∗ Both irrigated and rainfed areas are vulnerable to climate change and extreme events ∗ Food demand increasing due to change in food habits and rising incomes ∗ Crop water requirements increasing due to increased crop evapotranspiration