6 • 2008–2009 state of the wild - columbia university in...

6 • 2008–2009 State of the Wild

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“Animals are on the run. Plants are migrating too.”1 I wrote those words in 2006to draw attention to the fact that climate change was already under way. Peopledo not notice climate change because it is masked by day-to-day weather fluctu-ations, and we reside in comfortable homes. Animals and plants, on the otherhand, can survive only within certain climatic conditions, which are now chang-ing. The National Arbor Day Foundation had to redraw its maps for the zones inwhich tree species can survive, and animals are shifting to new habitats as well.Are these gradual changes in the wild consistent with dramatic scientific assess-ments of a crystallizing planetary emergency? Unfortunately, yes. Present exam-ples only hint at the scale of the planetary emergency that climate studies revealwith increasing clarity.

Our home planet is dangerously near a tipping point at which human-made

Tipping Point • 7

PERSPECTIVE OF A CLIMATOLOGIST

J A M E S H A N S E N

JAMES HANSEN is director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration God-dard Institute for Space Studies, but the perspectives here are his own. Hansen is also Ad-junct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth In-stitute, and he appeared in An Inconvenient Truth. He has also criticized theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for not adequately addressing the danger oflarge sea level rise.

TippingPoint


greenhouse gases reach alevel where major climatechanges can proceed mostlyunder their own momen-tum. Warming will shift cli-matic zones by intensifyingthe hydrologic cycle, affect-ing freshwater availabilityand human health. We will see repeat-ed coastal tragedies associated withstorms and continuously rising sea lev-els. The implications are profound,and the only resolution is for humansto move to a fundamentally differentenergy pathway within a decade. Oth-erwise, it will be too late for one-thirdof the world’s animal and plant speciesand millions of the most vulnerablemembers of our own species.

We may be able to preserve the re-markable planet on which civilizationdeveloped, but it will not be easy: spe-cial interests are resistant to changeand have inordinate power in our gov-ernments, especially in the UnitedStates. Understanding the nature andcauses of climate change is essential tocrafting solutions to our current crisis.

Tipping Point

Earth is heated by sunlight and, in bal-ance, reaches a temperature such thatan amount of heat equal to the ab-sorbed solar energy radiates back tospace. Climate forcings are imposed,temporary changes to Earth’s energybalance that alter Earth’s mean tem-perature. Forcings include changes in

the sun’s brightness, volcanic erup-tions that discharge sunlight-reflectingparticles into the stratosphere, andlong-lived human-made greenhousegases that trap heat.

Forcings are amplified or dimin-ished by other changes within the climate system, known as feedbacks.Fast feedbacks—changes that occurquickly in response to temperaturechange—amplify the initial tempera-ture change, begetting additionalwarming. As the planet warms, fastfeedbacks include more water vapor,which traps additional heat, and lesssnow and sea ice, which exposes darksurfaces that absorb more sunlight.

Slower feedbacks also exist. Due towarming, forests and shrubs are mov-ing poleward into tundra regions. Ex-panding vegetation, darker than tun-dra, absorbs sunlight and warms theenvironment. Another slow feedbackis increasing wetness (i.e., darkness) ofthe Greenland and West Antarctica icesheets in the warm season. Finally, astundra melts, methane, a powerfulgreenhouse gas, is bubbling out. Pal-eoclimatic records confirm that the long-lived greenhouse gases—

methane, carbon dioxide,and nitrous oxide—all in-crease with the warming ofoceans and land. These pos-itive feedbacks amplify cli-mate change over decades,centuries, and longer.

The predominance ofpositive feedbacks explains whyEarth’s climate has historically under-gone large swings: feedbacks work inboth directions, amplifying cooling, aswell as warming, forcings. In the past,feedbacks have caused Earth to bewhipsawed between colder andwarmer climates, even in response toweak forcings, such as slight changesin the tilt of Earth’s axis.2

The second fundamental propertyof Earth’s climate system, partneringwith feedbacks, is the great inertia ofoceans and ice sheets. Given theoceans’ capacity to absorb heat, whena climate forcing (such as increasedgreenhouse gases) impacts global tem-perature, even after two or threedecades, only about half of the even-tual surface warming has occurred. Icesheets also change slowly, although ac-cumulating evidence shows that theycan disintegrate within centuries orperhaps even decades.

The upshot of the combination ofinertia and feedbacks is that additionalclimate change is already “in thepipeline”: even if we stop increasinggreenhouse gases today, more warm-ing will occur. This is sobering when

We are at the tipping point becausethe climate state includes large,

ready positive feedbacks providedby the Arctic sea ice, the WestAntarctic ice sheet, and much

of Greenland’s ice.

Tipping Point • 9

one considers the present status ofEarth’s climate. Human civilizationdeveloped during the Holocene (thepast 12,000 years). It has been warmenough to keep ice sheets off NorthAmerica and Europe, but cool enoughfor ice sheets to remain on Greenlandand Antarctica. With rapid warmingof 0.6°C in the past 30 years, globaltemperature is at its warmest level inthe Holocene.3

The warming that has already oc-curred, the positive feedbacks thathave been set in motion, and the addi-tional warming in the pipeline togeth-er have brought us to the precipice ofa planetary tipping point. We are atthe tipping point because the climatestate includes large, ready positivefeedbacks provided by the Arctic seaice, the West Antarctic ice sheet, andmuch of Greenland’s ice. Little addi-tional forcing is needed to triggerthese feedbacks and magnify globalwarming. If we go over the edge, wewill transition to an environment faroutside the range that has been experi-enced by humanity, and there will beno return within any foreseeable fu-ture generation. Casualties would in-clude more than the loss of indige-nous ways of life in the Arctic andswamping of coastal cities. An intensi-fied hydrologic cycle will produceboth greater floods and greaterdroughts. In the US, the semiaridstates from central Texas through Ok-lahoma and both Dakotas would be-

come more drought-prone and ill suit-ed for agriculture, people, and currentwildlife. Africa would see a great ex-pansion of dry areas, particularlysouthern Africa. Large populations inAsia and South America would losetheir primary dry season freshwatersource as glaciers disappear. A majorcasualty in all this will be wildlife.

State of the Wild

Climate change is emerging while thewild is stressed by other pressures—habitat loss, overhunting, pollution,and invasive species—and it will mag-nify these stresses.

Species will respond to warming atdiffering paces, affecting many othersthrough the web of ecological interac-

tions. Phenological events, which aretimed events in the life cycle that areusually tied to seasons, may be dis-rupted. Examples of phenologicalevents include when leaves and flow-ers emerge and when animals departfor migration, breed, or hibernate. Ifspecies depend on each other duringthose times—for pollination or food—the pace at which they respond towarmer weather or precipitationchanges may cause unraveling, cascad-ing effects within ecosystems.

Animals and plants respond to cli-mate changes by expanding, contract-ing, or shifting their ranges. Isotherms,lines of a specific average tempera-ture, are moving poleward by approx-imately thirty-five miles (56 km) per

Brünnich’s guillemot (Uria lomvia), an Arctic seabird, has advanced its egg-laying date atits southern boundary, a phenological change due to global warming.

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decade, meaning many species rangesmay in turn shift at that pace.4 Somealready are: the red fox is moving into

Arctic fox territory, and ecologists haveobserved that 943 species across alltaxa and ecosystems have exhibitedmeasurable changes in their phenolo-gies and/or distribution over the pastseveral decades.5 However, their po-tential routes and habitat will be limit-ed by geographic or human-made ob-stacles, and other species’ territories.

Continued business-as-usual green-house gas emissions threaten manyecosystems, which together form thefabric of life on Earth and provide awide range of services to humanity.

Some species face extinction. The fol-lowing examples represent a handful.Of particular concern are polar species,

because they are being pushed off theplanet. In Antarctica, Adelie and em-peror penguins are in decline, asshrinking sea ice has reduced the abun-dance of krill, their food source.6 Arc-tic polar bears already contend withmelting sea ice, from which they huntseals in colder months. As sea ice re-cedes earlier each year, populations ofpolar bears in Canada have declined byabout 20 percent, with the weight offemales and the number of survivingcubs decreasing a similar amount. Asof this writing, the US Fish and

Wildlife Service is still considering pro-tecting polar bears, but only after itwas taken to court for failure to act onthe mounting evidence that polar bearswill suffer greatly due to global warm-ing.7

Life in many biologically diversealpine regions is similarly in danger ofbeing pushed off the planet. When agiven temperature range moves up amountain, the area with those climat-ic conditions becomes smaller androckier, and the air thinner, resultingin a struggle for survival for somealpine species.

In the Southwest US, the endemicMount Graham red squirrel surviveson a single Arizona mountain, an “is-land in the sky,” an isolated green spotin the desert. The squirrels, protectedas an endangered species, had re-bounded to a population of over 500,but their numbers have since declinedto between 100 and 200 animals.8 Lossof the red squirrel will alter the forestbecause its middens are a source offood and habitat for chipmunks, voles,and mice.

A new stress on Graham red squirrels is climatic: increased heat,drought, and fires. Heat-stressedforests are vulnerable to prolongedbeetle infestation and catastrophicfires. Rainfall still occurs, but it is errat-ic and heavy, and dry periods are moreintense. The resulting forest fires burnhotter, and the lower reaches of theforest cannot recover.


The Mount Graham red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis) survives on a single mountain in Arizona. “Green islands” on mountains, and the species that live onthem, are pushed higher as temperatures rise, and will be pushed off the planet if globalwarming continues.

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Tipping Point • 11

In the marine world, loggerheadturtles are also suffering. These greatcreatures return to beaches every twoto three years to bury a clutch of eggs.Hatchlings emerge after two monthsand head precariously to the sea toface a myriad of predators. Years ofconservation efforts to protect logger-head turtles on their largest nestingarea in the US, stretching over 20 milesof Florida coastline, seemed to be sta-bilizing the South Florida subpopula-tion.9 Now climate change places anew stress on these turtles. Floridabeaches are increasingly lined with seawalls to protect against rising seas andstorms. Sandy beaches seaward of the walls are limited and may be lost if the sea level risessubstantially.

Some creatures seem more adapt-able to climate change. The armadillo,a prehistoric critter that has beenaround for over 50 million years, is like-ly to extend its range northward in theUS. But the underlying cause of theclimatic threat to the Graham redsquirrel and other species—from griz-zlies, whose springtime food sources

may shift, to the isolatedsnow vole in the moun-tains of southern Spain—is“business-as-usual” use offossil fuels. Predictedwarming of several de-grees Celsius would surelycause mass extinctions.Prior major warmings in

Earth’s history, the most recent occur-ring 55 million years ago with the re-lease of large amounts of Arcticmethane hydrates,10 resulted in the ex-tinction of half or more ofthe species then on theplanet.

Might the Graham redsquirrel and snow vole be“saved” if we transplantthem to higher moun-tains? They would have tocompete for new niches—and there is a tangled webof interactions that hasevolved among speciesand ecosystems. What isthe prospect that wecould understand, letalone reproduce, thesecomplex interactions thatcreate ecological stability?“Assisted migration” isthus an uncertain pros-pect.11 The best chance for all speciesis a conscious choice by humans topursue an alternative energy scenarioto stabilize the climate.

State of the Planet

There is a huge gap between what isunderstood about global warming—by the scientific community—andwhat is known about global warming—by those who need to know: thepublic and policymakers.

The crystallizing science points toan imminent planetary emergency.The dangerous level of carbon diox-ide, at which we will set in motion un-stoppable changes, is at most 450 parts

per million (ppm), but it may be less.12

Carbon dioxide has already increasedfrom a preindustrial level of 280 ppmto 383 ppm in 2007, and it is now in-creasing by about 2 ppm per year. We

Loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling emergingfrom egg. Loggerhead decline has been arrested by theprotection of nesting areas on Florida beaches and othermeasures, but these areas will be threatened by risingsea level.

Prior major warmings inEarth’s history, the most

recent occurring 55 millionyears ago . . . resulted in the extinction of half ormore of the species then

on the planet.

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must make significant changes withina decade to avoid setting in motionunstoppable climatic change.

We need to address carbon dioxideemissions immediately. Global indus-trialization, powered first by coal, andlater by oil and gas, resulted in fossilfuel pollutants that choked London onsmog, set a river on fire in the US, anddamaged forests by acid rain. We aresolving those pollution problems, butwe did not address them until they hitus with full force. That approach, to

wait and see and clean up the messpost facto, will not work in the case ofcarbon dioxide emissions and climatechange because of inertial effects,warming already in the pipeline, andtipping points. On the contrary, ignor-ing emissions would lock in cata-strophic climatic change.

Instead, we must resolve to moverapidly to the next phase of the indus-trial revolution—expanding the bene-fits of advanced technology to helpmaintain the atmosphere, and conse-

quently the wonders of the naturalworld. A review of basic fossil fuelfacts reveals why the shift must bemade soon. Based on the estimatedamount of carbon dioxide locked ineach remaining fossil fuel reservoir—including oil, gas, coal, and unconven-tional fossil fuels (tar sands, tar shale,heavy oil, methane hydrates)13—burn-ing readily available oil and gas re-sources alone will take atmosphericcarbon dioxide to levels near 450 ppm.Burning coal and unconventional fos-sil fuels, which energy companies arenow exploring, could take atmospher-ic carbon dioxide to far greater levels.

To understand the limits on future

Carbon dioxide contained in fossil fuel reservoirs, (a) the dark areas being the portionalready used; (b, c) cumulative fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions by different countriesas a percent of global total; (d) per capita emissions for the 10 largest emitters of fossil fuelcarbon dioxide.


use of fossil fuels, an awareness of thecarbon cycle is critical. In this cycle,the ocean quickly takes up a fractionof carbon dioxide emissions, but up-take slows as carbon dioxide added tothe ocean exerts a “back pressure.”Further uptake depends upon carbondioxide mixing into the deep oceanand precipitating out of ocean watervia carbonate sediments. This meansthat about one-third of carbon dioxideemissions remain in the atmosphereafter 100 years and one-quarter still re-main after 500 years. Indeed, carbondioxide from the Industrial Revolutionstill around today implies heavy re-sponsibilities for Europe and the US.

Carbon reservoirs and the ocean’space of removing carbon dioxide areimportant boundary conditions inframing solutions to the climate crisis.We can avert planetary transformation—eventual disintegration of ice sheets

and massive extinctions—only if the planetary ener-gy balance is restored at anacceptable global temper-ature. Temperature fluc-tuates from year to year,but it is increasing byabout 0.2°C per decade.Although estimates ofpermissible warmingmust be refined as knowl-edge advances, the upshotof crystallizing science isthat the “safe” global tem-perature level is, at most,

about 1°C greater than the year 2000global temperature.

This 1°C limit on additional globalwarming implies the aforementionedcarbon dioxide ceiling of about 450ppm.14 Pinpointing this carbon diox-ide ceiling is complicated due to otherhuman-made forcings, especiallymethane, nitrous oxide, and “blacksoot.” For example, an alternative sce-nario allows carbon dioxide levels topeak at 475 ppm because it assumes alarge reduction of methane.15 How-ever, human-made sulfate aerosols(reflective particles that have a coolingeffect) are likely to decrease, neutraliz-ing these potential reductions inmethane. Therefore 450 ppm is agood comprehensive estimate of themaximum allowable carbon dioxide.Indeed, if recent ice loss from Antarctica is a sign, it may be that even 450 ppm is excessive.

Since we could reach 450 ppmwithin two to three decades, weshould be inspired now to change ourenergy systems. Based on the preced-ing boundary conditions, the follow-ing is a four-point strategy to avoiddangerous climate change.

1. Coal and unconventional fossilfuels must be curtailed andused only with capture andsequestration of the carbondioxide underground. Existingcoal-fired power plants shouldbe phased out over the next fewdecades.

2. Carbon price and efficiencystandards must be implement-ed. Recognizing the unusualenergy concentration and mo-bility of fossil fuels—withwhich little else can currentlycompete—the practical way totransition to a postpetroleumera is to impose a moderate butcontinually rising carbon price.The price can be via a tax onfossil fuels, a ration-and-tradesystem that limits impacts onpeople least able to afford anenergy tax, or a combination ofmethods. This will make fossilfuels pay for environmentaldamage while stretching re-maining oil and gas to accom-modate sustainable economicgrowth. The certainty of arising price will inspire indus-

In my view, special interestshave undue sway with our

governments and haveeffectively promoted

minimalist actions andgrowth in fossil fuels, rather

than making the scale ofinvestments necessary.

tries to innovate and will re-duce the incentive to exploitunconventional fossil fuels withhigh carbon dioxide emissions,such as tar shale.

In addition, we need realefficiency standards, for vehi-cles, buildings, and lighting. Wemust remove barriers to energyefficiency, such as the policy ofmost utility companies to pro-mote energy consumptionrather than conservation.

3. We must take steps to drawdown atmospheric carbondioxide. Farming and forestrypractices that enhance carbonretention in the soil and bios-phere must be supported. Bio-fuel power plants with carbonsequestration can draw downatmospheric carbon dioxide,16

putting anthropogenic carbondioxide back underground.Carbon dioxide can besequestered beneath oceansediments17 and in other safegeologic sites.

4. We must take steps to reduceother, non–carbon dioxideforcings, especially black soot,methane, and ground-levelozone via stricter regulations.

International implementation ofthese steps requires recognition of re-sponsibilities. Because of the long life-time of carbon dioxide already emit-

ted, Europe bears a large responsibili-ty. But the responsibility of the US ismore than three times that of anyother nation, and it will continue to bethe largest for at least several decades,even though China will exceed the USin new emissions within a year or two.

Sadly, the requirements to avoidglobal disasters are not yet widely rec-ognized: Germany intends to replacenuclear power plants with coal. ButEurope, the US, and other developedcountries should place a moratoriumon new coal-fired power plants untilcarbon capture and sequestration arein place. This cannot wait until similarrestrictions are practical in China andIndia. National responsibilities for cli-mate change and per capita emissionsare an order of magnitude greater inthe US, Canada, and Australia than inIndia and China, and define moral ob-ligations.

At the same time, China and devel-oping countries should bulldoze old-technology coal power plants andbuild new coal power plants with onlythe latest technology. Storms andfloods attending climate change willhit developing countries hardest be-cause most megacities near sea levelare in those countries. This shouldprovide incentive for China and Indiato address climate change.

Efficiency of future vehicle poweris also vital. California’s requirementfor 30 percent efficiency improvementhas great value. In contrast, a pro-

posed national energy plan for 20 per-cent ethanol in vehicle fuels, derived inlarge part from corn, does more harmthan good. It will do little to reduceemissions—because producing etha-nol currently requires a lot of energy—and it would degrade carbon reten-tion in soils. There are ways that re-newable or other carbon dioxide–freeenergies may eventually power vehi-cles, but half-measures should not bedictated without sufficient scientificinput to balance vested agribusinessinterests.

That said, biofuels can play a majorpart in our energy future. As a nativeIowan, I like to imagine that the Mid-west will rescue compatriots threat-ened by rising seas. Native grasses, ap-propriately cultivated, and perhapswith improved varieties, can drawdown atmospheric carbon dioxide.The prairies may contribute, if we geton with solving the climate problembefore superdrought hits them. Bio-fuel investment should proceed withinput from scientists and conserva-tionists, because some industry andgovernment biofuel production planswould clear more forest for planta-tions of oil palm and soy with conse-quences for wildlife and wildlands.

A Final Picture

Earth’s paleoclimatic record tells usthat atmospheric greenhouse gases arenow near the dangerous level wheretipping points become unavoidable.


We can choose a course to reversegreenhouse gas growth and promptlychange our energy strategy. A step inthe right direction was the April 2007decision by the US Supreme Court thatthe Environmental Protection Agencycan and should regulate greenhousegas emissions. However, much more isneeded.

In my view, special interests haveundue sway with our governmentsand have effectively promoted mini-malist actions and growth in fossilfuels, rather than making the scale ofinvestments necessary.

US government complicity withspecial interests was clear when, at apractice press conference held byNASA on Arctic sea ice, a member ofmy group suggested that a reductionin greenhouse gas emissions couldstem sea ice loss. His suggestionprompted a government “minder” toproclaim “that’s unacceptable,” on the

grounds that it was a policy statement,when in fact it was scientifically based.While making policy is the right ofour elected representatives, scientistshad connected the dots of climate re-search and were prevented from com-municating that information. In thiscase, vested interests posed a threat toour home planet and the fabric of lifeupon it.

It is worth imagining how ourgrandchildren will look back on us.The picture that I fear has the pol-luters, the utilities, and automakersstanding in court demanding theright to continue to emit carbon diox-ide for the sake of short-term profits.The disturbing part is that we,through our national government,are standing alongside the polluters,officially as a hulking amicus curiae(friend of the court), arguing againstlimitations on emissions. Is this thepicture of our generation that we

want to be remembered by?We live in a democracy, and policies

represent our collective will. If weallow the planet to pass tipping points,it will be hard to defend our role. Thestate of the wild is in our hands, andwe can still preserve creation and servehumanity worldwide. A drive for ener-gy efficiency and clean energy sourceswill produce high-tech jobs. Restora-tion of clean air will be universally ben-eficial. Rural life and the planet canbenefit from intelligent developmentof biofuels and renewable energy.

At the front lines, observing thechanges in the wild, conservationistsserve as a voice for the plants and ani-mals that have already started reactingto climate warming. To conserve asmuch biodiversity as we can, conser-vationists must unite with many oth-ers to push for a far more radical re-duction in carbon dioxide emissionsthan has hitherto been consideredpractical. Otherwise, alpine and polarspecies, coral reefs, and species livingin areas that become arid will be lostover the next century. n


Yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) advanced their emergence from hibernationby 23 days in the Rocky Mountains, presumably due to global warming.

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16. Anon. 2003; M. Fenton et al., “Linking bats to emerging diseases,” Science311(2006): 1098–99.

17. J. Newcomb, “Thinking ahead: The business significance of an avian influenzapandemic,” Bio Economic Research Associates, 2006; Original source, J. Pritchett et al.,“Animal disease economic impacts: A survey of literature and typology of researchapproaches,” International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 8(2005).

18. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/westnile/surv&controlCaseCount07_detailed.htm.

19. Tasmania Department of Primary Industries and Water, www.dpiw.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/LBUN-5QF86G?open; J. Bunce, “Tassie devil tumour break-through,” The Australian, Oct. 3, 2007.

20. G. Vogel, “Tracking Ebola’s deadly march among wild apes,” Science 314(2006):1522–23; World Health Organization www.who.int/csr/don/2007_10_03a/en/index.html.

21. Whirling Disease Initiative, http://whirlingdisease.montana.edu. 22. “Trans-boundary diseases hamper livestock development,” Botswana Press

Agency, June 27, 2005, www.gov.bw/cgi-bin/news.cgi?d=200506278:=Trans-boundary_diseases_hamper_livestock_development.

Introduction: Future States of the Wild by Kent H. Redford

1. J. Marshall, “Future Recall: Your Mind Can Slip through Time,” New Scientist,March 24, 2007.

Part I: State of the Wild

Tipping Point: Perspective of a Climatologist by James Hansen

1. J. Hansen, “The Threat to the Planet,” New York Review of Books,, July 13, 2006.2. J. Hansen et al., “Climate Change and Trace Gases,” Philosophical Transaction of

the Royal Society A 365 (2007): 1925–1954.3. J. Hansen et al., “Global Temperature Change,” Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences. 103 (2006): 14288–93.4. C. Parmesan, “Ecological and Evolutionary Response to Recent Climate

Change,” Annual Review of Ecology and Evolution of Systems 37 (2006): 637–69.5. C. Parmesan, “Ecological and Evolutionary Response,” 2006.6. L. Gross, “As the Antarctic Ice Pack Recedes, a Fragile Ecosystem Hangs in the

Balance,” PLoS Biol 3, no. 4 (2005): e127.7. E. Pennisi, “U.S. Weighs Protection for Polar Bears,” Science 315 (2007): 25.8. C. Jordan, “Computers May Help Save Mount Graham Red Squirrel,” Univ.

Arizona News, April 27, 2006; T. Egan, “Heat Invades Cool Heights over ArizonaDesert,” New York Times, March 27, 2007.

9. Fish and Wildlife Service, Loggerhead Sea Turtle, www.fws.gov/northflorida/SeaTurtles%Factsheets/loggerheadsea-turtle.htm.

10. D. Archer, “Methane Hydrates and Anthropogenic Climate Change,”Biogeosciences Discussion 4 (2007): 521–44.

11. C. Zimmer, “A Radical Step to Preserve a Species: Assisted Migration,” New YorkTimes, January 23, 2007.

12. J. Hansen et al., “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISSmodel Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion 7 (2007): 2287–312.

258 • Notes

13. Proven and anticipated reserves are based on Energy InformationAdministration estimates. Other experts estimate higher or lower reserves, but theuncertainties do not alter our conclusions.

14. J. Hansen, “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate,” 2007.15. J. Hansen et al., “Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative

Scenario,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97 (2000): 9875–80.16. J. Hansen, Political Interference with Government Climate Change Science. Sub-

mitted text accompanying oral testimony given March 19, 2007 during hearings on“Political Interference with Science: Global Warming, Part II” of the Committee on Over-sight and Government Reform of the U.S. House of Representatives. www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/20070319105800-43018.pdf; http://oversight.house.gov/story.asp?ID=1214

17. K. Z. House et al., “Permanent Carbon Dioxide Storage in Deep-SeaSediments,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 (2006): 12291–95.

Discoveries by Margaret Kinnaird

1. B. M. Beehler et al., “A New Species of Smoky Honeyeater (Meliphagidae:Melipotes) from Western New Guinea,” Auk 124 (2007): 1000–9.

2. E. Kranz, “Scientists Believe Bird’s Head Seascape Is Richest on Earth,”www.conservation.org/xp/frontlines/2006/09180601.xml.

3. A. Singa et al. “Macaca Munzala: A New Species from Western ArunachalPradesh, Northeastern India,” International Journal of Primatology 26 (2005): 977–89.

4. R. H. Bain et al., “Three New Indochinese Species of Cascade Frogs (Amphibia:Ranidae) Allied to Rana Archotaphus,” Copeia 1 (2006): 43–59.

5. Bulletin of the British Ornithologists Club, Vol. 126 ( June 2006). 6. K. A. Raskoff and G. I. Matsumoto, “Stellamedusa ventana, a New Mesopelagic

Scyphomedusa from the Eastern Pacific Representing a New Subfamily, theStellamedusinae,” Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the UK 84 (2004): 37–42.

7. E. Macpherson, W. Jones, and M. Segonzac, “A New Squat Lobster Family ofGalatheoidea (Crustacea, Decapoda, Anomura) from the Hydrothermal Vents of thePacific–Antarctic Ridge,” Zoosystema 24 (2005): 709–23.

8. P. Tyson, “Living at Extremes,” Public Broadcasting Service, July 1998,www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/abyss/.

9. P. M. Kappeler et al., “Morphology, Behvaiour and Molecular Evolution of GiantMouse Lemurs (Mirza spp.) Gray, 1870, with Description of a New Species,” PrimateReport 71: 3–26.

10. T. Cucchi et al., “A New Endemic Species of the Subgenus Mus (Rodentia,Mammalia) on the Island of Cyprus,” Zootaxa 1241 (2006): 1–36.

11. R. Athreya, “A New Species of Liocichla (Aves: Timaliidae) from EaglenestWildlife Sanctuary, Arunachal Pradesh, India,” Indian Birds 2 (2006): 86–94.

12. T. Jones et al., “The Highland Mangabey Lophocebus kipunji: a New Species ofAfrican Monkey,” Science 308 (2005): 1161–64.

13. T. Davenport et al., “A New Genus of African Monkey, Rungwecebus:Morphology, Ecology, and Molecular Phylogenetics,” Science 312 (2006): 1378–81.

The Rarest of the Rare: Some of the World’s Most Endangered Animals by Catherine Grippo, Taylor H. Ricketts, and Jonathan Hoekstra

1. “Extinction crisis escalates: Red List shows apes, corals, vultures, dolphins all indanger,” www.iucn.org/en/news/archive/2007/09/12_pr_redlist.htm.

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