6th Green Ocean Workshop

Villefranche sur mer

Spring 2007

Questions:

• what are the important feedbacks between

marine ecosystems and climate on timescales

of 1 yr to 100 kyr?

• are marine ecosystems stable?

• are there sensitive regions that we should closely

monitor or potentially dangerous climate regimes or

human activities that we should carefully avoid?

Products of 2006 workshop:

• EOS workshop report on Modelling interactions between marine ecosystems and climate

• Definition of 2 priorities:

(1) develop a scheme for model evaluation

(2) gather observations on rates and biomass

2007 workshop:

40 participants (18 new, 22 returning)

7 phd students

planned developments of a Dynamic Green Ocean Model

Export

11 PgC/y

Respiration

34 PgC/y

Primary Production

45 PgC/y

pico-heterotrophsmonera

phyto-plankton

pico-autotrophs

N2-fixers

calcifiers

DMSp-producers

mixed

silicifiers

zoo-plankton

proto

meso

macro

bacteria

phytoplankton zooplankton

pico-hetero.

pico-autotr.

N2-fix. calcifiers

DMSp-prod.

mixed-phyto

silicifiers

proto meso macro

rates

biomass

satellite

geochem.

data available for parameterisation and evaluation (2006)

bacteria

phytoplankton zooplankton

pico-hetero.

pico-autotr.

N2-fix. calcifiers

DMSp-prod.

mixed-phyto

silicifiers

proto meso macro

rates

biomass

satellite

geochem.

data available for parameterisation and evaluation (2007)

(proposal under review with Euroceans)

2007:

warming of the climate system is

unequivocal (IPCC)

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s (G

tC y

-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

Raupach et al. PNAS

CO2 emissions (GtC/y)

1970 2005

time (y)

1990

sea level change (cm)

temperature change (ºC)

Rahmstorf et al. Science

1970 2005

time (y)

1990

biological changes

observed recent past

possible future

identify potentially dangerous feedbacks due

to recent (or projected) climate change

Products of 2007 workshop:

• review progress and revise priorities

• define steps to move forward on priorities

(1) develop a scheme for model evaluationAMERM effort (led by Icarus Alan) model intercomparison with Yasuhiro Yamanaka

+

(2) gather observations on rates and biomassremineralizers effort (led by Erik Buitenhuis)primary producers effort (led by Shubha

Sathyendranath)

• explore non-linearities in marine ecosystems (led by Dieter Wolf-Gladrow)

time evolution of model developmentsbacteri

aphytoplankton zooplankton

pico-hetero.

pico-autotr.

N2-fix. calcifiers

DMSp-prod.

mixed-phyto

silicifiers

proto meso macro

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

...

1991

1996

1999

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2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2010

...

June: 1st workshop

October, 2nd workshop

October, 3rd workshop

October, 4th workshop

paper in Global Change biology

April, 5th workshop

Spring, 6th workshop

initial struggle period}