6th Regional Coordination MeetingAmman - November 11-12, 2014

Water Management Strategies and potential impacts on Livelihoods in

(TUNISIA)

WLI Goal and national policy

Please insert a picture that represents your work

Overall Goal: to improve the livelihoods of rural households and communities in areas where water scarcity, land degradation, and associated problems are prevalent.

Intended Outputs: 1. Assessment of climate change effects on agro-systems2. Management tools for Integrated water and land use3. Enhanced knowledge, skills and qualifications for key stakeholders. 4. Tools for assessment of rural livelihoods improvements

National Policy Objectives in Tunisia : 1. Increasing the income per capita and reducing poverty2. Enhancing food self-sufficiency3. Water saving and rational use of natural resources

Improvement of water management in rangeland and crop-based production systems through field testing, adaptation and monitoring effects of water harvesting, irrigation management and using saline water to improve crop and livestock productivity.Quantification of benefits from improved interventions and adaptation measures in terms of water savings and enhanced benefit/cost ratioAssess future scenarios for Global Climate Change (GCC) and impacts on water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods for consideration by decision-makers

Capacity building for implementation, analysis and assessment of all adaptation measures

Outscaling and dissemination of outputs to other areas in Tunisia and WLI partnering countries

Research themes

ASSESS FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GCC AND IMPACTS ON

WATER RESOURCES, AGRICULTURE, AND

LIVELIHOODS

WATER MANAGEMENT IN RANGELANDS AND CROP PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM IMPROVED

INTERVENTIONS AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

Capacity building

Post doc placement in US Laboratories

Trainings

Outscaling andDissemination

Workshops and seminars

Publications

Description of the 3 sites

S3 : South

150,000 ha

Range 150-230 mm

Small irrigation schemes (Fruit trees, Vegetables)Water harvesting

50,000 inhabitants

5 (3-10 ha)

S1 : North

50km x 50 km

450 mm

Durum wheat, Citrus

S2 : Centre

740,000 ha

240 mm (80-2000)

Barley LivestockCactus

410,000 inhab.

2914 ha

2241 hab. (2002)

8 (1-2 ha each)

Site

Surface area

Rainfall

Targeted Agrosystem

Population

Benchmark site surface area

Population

Pilot sites

33

22

11

Mechanisms for Community Inclusion

Site Advisory Group Members

CRDA Médenine

CRDA Sidi Bouzid

CRDA Nabeul

CTA Béni Khalled

• Please insert a picture here

Associations Benefitted (FTF indicator)

Farmers, NGOs

Farmers, NGO

Farmers

Farmers

Understanding Water Management: Basin-level

Distribution characteristics of Temperature have been determined for the northern site using historical data (1911-2000), focus on January.

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mean1925mean1955mean1985

T(°C)

months

1911-19401941-19701971-2000

8

10

12

14

8 10 12 14

jan1971-2000jan1941-70

Q-Q plotvs 1911-1940

T(°C)

T(°C)

Quintile to quintile plot for the coldest month (January), showing a steady increase in temperature over the last century. Distribution statistics will be used for correcting ARPRGE forecasts of CC.

Calibration and validation of SWAT model for Oued Rmel watershed

Precipitation series

Case study of Wadi Rmel , nothern Tunisia. Work on rainfall-runoff simulation using two rainfall-runoff models GR2M and SWAT

Canal-water uptake by farmers in the citrus growing area of Benikhalled (Nabeul governorate), showing an important shift in the frequency of exceedence over 2013.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Freq

uen

ce o

f exc

eed

ence

Irrigation m3/ha

2011

2012

2013

ETc = 7600 m3/ha

I. requierement =5000m3/ha

Climate change and its impacts on barley production : Case of Sidi Bouzid

Growing season rainfall evolution (mm) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 2020-2030 -6% +11%

2050-2060 -13% -2%

2080-2090 -37% -26%

Barley yield evolution RCP4.5 RCP8.52021-2029 +58% +32%

2051-2059 +24% -22%

2080-2090 -39% -3%

•Annual rainfall (1999-2013) : 229 mm•Average growing season rainfall: 160 mm (observed)

•Barley grain yield (2002-2013) : 277 kg/ha (observed)

(An

na

bi p

rilim

ina

ry r

esu

lts)

GCM= HadGEM2-ES/ Crop model= DSSAT

- Various effect of rainfall patterns change with interaction with CO2 level increase (RCP4.5<RCP8.5) and with other weather parameters: T (+2-4°C)…; - Uncertainties Need to Compare several GCMs ongoing with MRI-CGCM, IPSL)

Improving Water and Land Management: Field Level

ETc .75(ETc) .5(ETc) Farm's0

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300F

ruit

s n

um

ber

/tre

e LSD(5%)=31.6

Relationship between water deficits and orange production in dry environments. Experiment conducted in a drip irrigated orchards, situated in Megarine (governorate of Medenine).

Aquacrop model performance for barley

AquaCrop model / simulation of the biomass / wheat /

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SW

B1

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DI7

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FM

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FM

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B1

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DI7

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FM

SW

B1

00

DI7

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FM

Potato Carrot Green bean (Luzdi otono)

Green bean(Local)

Treatments

IWP

(k

g/m

3)

2013-2014

LSD (5%)Carrot, 2.077Potato, 1.277

Green bean Luz, 2.114 Geen bean L, 1.997

DI WPCarrot, 25%Potato, 24%

Green bean, 30-33%

FM WP Carrot, 38%Potato, 45%

Green bean, 30-32%

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Rainfed condition Irrigation conditionCrop

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ield

(kg/

ha)

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Rainfed condition Irrigation conditionCrop

Biol

ogic

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ield

(kg/

ha)

Yield components

Grain yield of barley (kg/ha) under different scenariosadaptation tested

Biological yield of barley (kg/ha) under different scenariosadaptation tested

Barley Durum wheat Barley with cactus as alleys (alley

cropping)

Barley with olives tree as alleys (alley

cropping)

Mixture barley/vetch

012345678

Rainfed condition Supplemental irrigation condition

Crop

g-W

UE (k

g/m

m/h

a)

Barley Durum wheat Barley with cactus as alleys (alley

cropping)

Barley with olives tree as alleys (alley

cropping)

Mixture barley/vetch

02468

101214161820

Rainfed condition Supplemental irrigation condition

Crop

b-W

UE (k

g/m

m/h

a)WUE

Grain-WUE of barleyunder different scenariosadaptation tested

Biological-WUE of barleyunder different Scenarios adaptation tested

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CA CV

Gra

in y

ield

(kg/

ha)

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CA CV

Biol

ogic

al y

ield

(kg/

ha)

Yield components

Under rainfed condition

Under Supplemental irrigation

Barley Durum wheat5

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CA CVCrops

Grai

n yi

eld

(kg/

ha)

Barley Durum wheat0

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CA CVCrops

Biol

ogica

l yie

ld (k

g/ha

)

WUE

Under rainfed condition

Under Supplemental irrigation

Barley Barley with cactus as alleys (alley cropping)

Durum wheat0

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CA CV

g-W

UE (k

g/m

m/h

a)

Barley Barley with cactus as alleys (alley cropping)

Durum wheat0

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CA CV

b-W

UE (k

g/m

m/h

a)

Barley Durum wheat5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

CA CVCrops

g-W

UE (k

g/m

m/h

a)

Barley Durum wheat02468

1012141618

CA CVCrops

b-W

UE (k

g/m

m/h

a)

Understanding and improving Livelihoods : Cost benefit analysis of agricultural adaptation options to climate change

RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF

ZOGHMAR

Net present value (NPV) (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013

Alternative land uses Farmer’s perspective National perspective

Cactus 1220 726Cactus in alley + pasture 1669 800Cactus in alley+ barley 1913 366

Non intervention : Rangelands

This analysis confirms that integrated livestock, crop and forage net income is more climate resilient.

RESULTS : COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT ALTERNATIVE LAND USES IN RANGELANDS : CASE OF

ZOGHMARNPV (8%, 20 years) in TND/ha - 2013Non intervention : Rainfed barley

• Irrigation constitutes the best adaptation alternative at farm perspective, but better information is needed to assess the cost of water degradation.

Farmer’s perspective Social perspective0

1000200030004000500060007000

Cactus Cactus in alleyCactus in alley cropping with barleyIrrigated barley

RESULTS : IMPACT OF CACTUS FEEDING ON FARMER’ INCOME

Sheep breeding (no cactus feeding)

Integrated Sheep breeding + cactus

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3500

4000

Gross margin/household (TND/year)

RESULTS : PROFITABILITY OF OLIVE TREES PLANTATION AT FARMER, NATIONAL SOCIETY AND GLOBAL COMMUNITY

PERSPECTIVE : CASE OF ZOGHMAR

NPV (8%, 60 years) in TND/ha - 2013

Farm

er persp

ective

National persp

ective

Global persp

ective

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

Olive tree plantation in rangelandsConversion of barley to olive tree plantationConversion of barley to olive tree plantation in irrigated areas

IRR % Observed

Private perspective 24%Social perspective 23%

NPV (DT)

Discount rate 12% 10% 8% Costs + 10 % Benefits - 20 %

Private perspective 2491 3615 5231 2340 1691

Social perspective 2073 3027 4402 1910 1333

Case study 2 : Water harvesting techniques investment at farm level

Net Present Value (30 years), WHT investment

Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA)

Natural capital Financial capital Physical capital Human capital Social capital

LivestockFarm seizeLand qualityWater qualityOlive trees

Agriculture incomeLivestock incomeOff-farm income

JessourOwnership of plowing means

Education, Household seizeAgeHouseholds expenditure

Member of association, Distance to nearest hospital , Certificate of Ownership, SONEDE network

List of indicators by type of livelihood capital

Naturel capital

Financial capital

Physical capitalHuman capital

Social capital

0

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40

60

80

100

Total watershed

Social capital is the most dominating capital followed by physical capital.Financial capital seems to be not representative due to the low agriculture and livestock incomes. Projections indicate that the livelihood assets will be changed during 2013-2030 period : Physical, human and social capital will be improved with very little increment in financial capital. Natural capital will slowly decrease.

Summary of Enhanced Knowledge, Skills and Qualifications at the Benchmark Site

POST DOC PLACEMENTS IN US LABSCandidate M. Annabi F. Mokh N. SghaierOrganization INRAT IRA INAT

Hosting Lab Vegetable and Forage Crop Research Unit (USDA-ARS, Prosser, WA)

Conservation and Production Research Laboratory (USDA-ARS, Bushland, Texas)

USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory (Beltsville, MD)

Supervisors Dr Ashok Alva Dr. Paul D. Colaizzi Dr .Martha Anderson

Period Jan-Mar14; Jul-Sep14 Jun-Nov14 Sept14-Feb15

Topic Estimating the effect of the future climate change on durum wheat productivity in Northern Tunisia and the potential benefits of conservation agricultural and sowing date advancing

Irrigation management and crop water modeling

Performance evaluation of ALEXI Evapotranspiration model in Northern Tunisia

TRAININGS

• Aquacrop Training in partnership with FAO; WLI Modeling Thematic Group, Cairo (August 24-28, 2014)

• Regional Training Workshop on Cost Benefit Analysis, Thematic Group: Economics of Natural Resources Management, Amman - Jordan (June 24-25, 2014)

• Catalyzing Change through the Impact Pathway and Theories of Change; WLI Socio-Economic Thematic Group, Amman (April 16-17, 2014)

DEGREES

MSc theses, PhD theses, etc.

Challenges, Needs and Opportunities

Themes/Actions

Geographical/Ecozones

Scale (up/outscaling)

SYNERGIES

INTERNATIONAL CONVNETIONS

NATIONAL STRATEGIES

REGIONAL PROJECTS

LOCAL PROJECTS

CRP

WLI

WLICRP-DS

FUTURE PROSPECTS

Modelling:• CC model downscaling• Adaptation, calibration and validation of used models

Monitoring• More advanced field monitoring equipments and methods • Use of RS techniques for spatial analysis

Practices• Test the various practices: irrigation scheduling, deficit, irrigation,

WH-SI, intercropping, conservation agriculture, etc.• Try other innovative practices

Economic and social studies• Social acceptance and farmer willingness• Economic evaluation of adaptation options • Assessing the impacts on farmer incomes and livelihood• Water resources allocation

Capacity building, exchanges and networking• Post doc and researchers exchanges in both directions• Networking with US Labs and Univ.• Provide advanced trainings on specific topics

Dissemination and Outreach• International IF journal papers• Books• Interactive decision making tools (portals)• Extension tools and materials

Draft Workplan for 2015: Accelerated Schedule

2015 2014

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 11

Improve Water Mgt Strategies

Monitoring / Modeling

Reporting

Publication

Improve Livelihoods

Data analysis & reporting

Publication

Exchange Knowledge

Stakeholder workshops/trainings

Publication

Quarterly & Annual Reporting

Monitoring WLI Indicators

National Research Teams

IRA INRAT INAT

Bio-physical Component

Houcine KhatteliMohamed Ouessar Kamel NagazMongi Ben ZaiedFathia El MokhAmal HachaniAbderrahmen Sghaier

Mohamed Ben HammoudaMohamed AnnabiHatem Cheik MhamedSalah Ben Youssef

Netij Ben MechliaHammadi HabaiebMoncef MasmoudiNabil SghaierAsma LasramNawal Temani Zayani

Socio-economic Component

Mongi SghaierMohamed AbdeladhimRiadh Bechir

Hamed Daly-HassenNajoua Esaaidi, EngineerMaher Bel Haj Kacem, Engineer student

Thank you

Local stakeholders

South Centre North

CRDA MédenineFarmersLocal NGOs

CRDA Sidi BouzidFarmers

CTA Béni KhalledGDAFamers

US Labs Vegetable and Forage Crops Production Research Lab, Prosser, Washington

Soil and Water Management Research Lab, Bushland, Texas

Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab, Beltsville, Maryland (in partnership with NASA on MENA WISP Project)

Dr Ashok Alva Dr. Paul D. ColaizziDr Steve Evett

Dr .Martha Anderson