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Roberson and Associates, LLC 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, USA by Roberson and Associates, LLC 9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 1

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Page 1: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Roberson and Associates, LLC

600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis

Prepared for T-Mobile, USA

by Roberson and Associates, LLC

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 1

Page 2: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

1. Background: • The 600 MHz Incentive Auction may not yield the same amount of

spectrum for LTE in all market areas. • Roberson and Associates conducted an analysis of the feasibility of

different band plans in adjacent geographic areas (“Market Variability”)

2. Approach: • Scenarios: DTV channel 46 operating in a) Seattle; b) Miami • Use real-world, terrain-based propagation model to assess the number of

usable LTE cell sites in channel 46 in adjacent market areas.

3. Conclusion: Market Variability – not ideal – but Feasible • Valuable markets could be made available for auction by taking into

account the terrain, topography, and distances that separate wireless market boundaries.

• Regionally determined protection zones to prevent interference from TV stations into LTE networks based are viable.

• The lowest common denominator market should not cap the recovery of spectrum for a majority of the nation.

Summary

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 2

Page 3: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Market Variability Scenario

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 3

Duplex

Gap TV

37

GB

– 3

MH

z

LTE Downlink 35 MHz LTE Uplink 35 MHz 10 MHz

GB

– 1

MH

z

Duplex

Gap

TV

37

Downlink 20 MHz Uplink 20 MHz 10 MHz

TV

46 GB

9 MHz

GB

– 3

MH

z

SDL 15 MHz

Spokane

Seattle

What distance

separation is required

for successful LTE

operation?

Desired

Bandplan

35x35 MHz

LTE

Reduced

(Variable)

Bandplan

20x20MHz

LTE

Page 4: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Translating Exclusion Zones into Manageable Regions

Roberson and Associates 4

Spokane Seattle

Separation Distance?

Technical Challenge:

– Kilowatt TV transmitters transmitting into base station receivers, often above clutter, designed to receive microwatt power levels. Various estimates in record of required separation of 110 - 500 km.

– Proposed solutions so far only focus on large radius, circular exclusion zones that don’t consider terrain, topography, or wireless market boundary areas

Requirements for Region-by-Region Variation:

– Must protect the TV station service contour, as determined by the FCC’s TV Study software

– Must not impair LTE uplink operation for wireless industry

Page 5: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Scenario: Pacific Northwest (Seattle)

• One high power TV station remains in Seattle above channel 37

– TV station repacked into Channel 46, per T-Mobile band plan proposal, keeps transmitting at 1 million watts

• Examined the interference potential to 3 nearby Economic areas:

– Spokane EA: 1M Pops

– Richland EA: 800k Pops

– Portland EA: 3.3M Pops

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 5

Page 6: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Determining the Required Separation Distance: Terrain Based Propagation Model

Three step process:

1. Set an appropriate Interference Protection Criteria (IPC) for LTE

2. Run a radio frequency propagation model from the TV station transmitter to the LTE base station

3. Calculate the link budget analysis based upon steps #1 and #2 to determine the interference risk

6

Page 7: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Step 1: Determine Interference Protection Criteria (IPC)

• Subject to debate and opinion about what is an appropriate level of signal strength

• This analysis applies three different categories and uses conservative values:

1. No predicted risk of interference

2. Low risk

3. Potential risk

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 7

Note – calculation of the values is a separate slide

Page 8: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 8

Step 2: Run TV Station Propagation Model

Seattle Station

at TV 46

1 MW

LTE Base

Station

Strong DTV

Signal

Weaker

Signal

Weakest

Signal uplink

• Point-to-point calculation between TV base station and LTE base stations using ITM Longley Rice propagation model and 3 arc-second terrain data.

• Use actual TV station transmitter parameters (location, height, antenna pattern, power output) and base station parameters (location, height).

• Clutter or weather influenced ducting are not considered, but neither factor is outcome determinate in the analysis

Page 9: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 9

Step 3: Link Budget Calculation to Determine if IPC Satisfied

KING Transmit Power (1 MW ERP) 90 dBm

KING antenna gain (in direction of cell) -6.06 dB

Computed Path Loss to Cell Site (ITM) 230.20 dB

Received Power at Antenna -146.26 dBm

Receive Antenna Gain (worst case) 15 dB

Receiver Power at LTE Base Receiver -131.26 dBm Note – this link budget was based on a cell site 288 km from the TV Transmitter antenna.

Step 4: Repeat Steps 1-3 for all 1500+ sites in the study EAs and for

each of the five different TV stations in Seattle located above channel

37 that could be repacked to Channel 46.

Page 10: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 10

Interference Protection Criteria

No Predicted Risk: signals at or below -122 dBm

• Rationale – link budget calculation of LTE site

Low Risk: signals between -121 dBm and -100 dBm

• Rationale – reduced gain of 15 dB from LTE site antenna

and up to 7 dB additional attenuation from clutter

Possible Risk: signals stronger than -100 dBm

Note – we attempted to be conservative in setting the criteria. We think

there is room for debate and opinion about the exact values to define the low

risk and possible risk signal strength criteria.

Page 11: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Results for T-Mobile Sites Near Seattle

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 11

Sites in a Market Subject at Risk for Interference

Market Limited/No Risk Low Risk Potential Risk

Spokane EA 99% 1% 0%

Richland EA 96% 4% < 1%

Portland EA 64% 35% < 1%

• Simulation results suggest Spokane and Richland EA could readily support

market variability, providing access to 1.8M POPs even if one of the TV station

currently operating in Seattle was repacked into Channel 46.

• Simulation results suggest the Portland EA could potentially support market

variability, providing access to another 3.3M Pops even if one of the TV station

currently operating in Seattle was repacked into Channel 46.

Page 12: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

Results for T-Mobile Sites Near Miami

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 12

Sites in a Market Subject at Risk for Interference

Market Limited/No Risk Low Risk Potential Risk

Tallahassee EA 100% 0% 0%

Jacksonville EA 91% 9% 0%

Tampa EA 10% 90% 0%

Orlando EA 3% 91% 6%

Sarasota EA <1% 95% 4%

• Simulation results suggest Jacksonville and Tallahassee EA could readily

support market variability, providing access to 3M POPs even if one of the TV

station currently operating in Miami was repacked into Channel 46.

• Simulation results suggest the Tampa EA could potentially support market

variability, providing access to another 2.7M Pops even if one of the TV station

currently operating in Miami was repacked into Channel 46.

Page 13: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

BACKUP

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 13

Page 14: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 14

Area Plot Miami

Miami TV

Transmitters

and 41 dBu

contours from

TV Study

T-Mobile sites

Page 15: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 15

Area Plot Seattle

Seattle TV

Transmitters

and 41 dBu

contours from

TV Study

T-Mobile sites

T-Mobile sites

Page 16: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 16

LTE Site Link Budget Calculation

Parameter 10 MHz 5 MHz

LTE Base Station Receiver Noise Figure (dB) 3 3

Noise Floor (kTB)(dBm) -101 -104

Interference to Noise for 1 dB desense (dB) 6 6

Received Signal Power at Receiver for 1 dB rise (dBm) -107 -110

LTE Antenna Antenna Gain (maximum) (dB) 15 15

Received Signal Power at Antenna (dBm) -122 -125

Based on requirement that interference be at least 6 dB below the noise

floor to keep the noise rise less than or equal to 1 dB.

Propagation analysis tool used predicts signal power at the antenna.

Predicted values weaker than those given by “Received Signal Power at

Antenna” will result in acceptable system performance.

Page 17: 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis · 600 MHz Incentive Auction: Market Variability Analysis Prepared for T-Mobile, ... software –Must not impair ... LTE Base

9/23/2013 Roberson and Associates, LLC 17

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