7. holistic methods for efa - bueno
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HOLISTIC METHODS OFHOLISTIC METHODS OF
EFAEFA
Jay OKeeffe,
UNESCO-IHE
&Rebecca Tharme,
The Nature Conservancy
Curso Caudales Ambientales,Lima, Per,
25 27 Noviembre, 2009
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
Addresses resource limitations (e.g. biophysical data)Addresses resource limitations (e.g. biophysical data)
relevant in developing countriesrelevant in developing countries
Maintenance of whole ecosystem, not economicallyMaintenance of whole ecosystem, not economicallyimportant single speciesimportant single species
Well developed links between flow regimeWell developed links between flow regime
character and biophysical responsescharacter and biophysical responses Explicit link (in some) between biophysicalExplicit link (in some) between biophysical
response to flow change and effects onresponse to flow change and effects on subsistencesubsistence
users who depend directly on river for livelihoodsusers who depend directly on river for livelihoods
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
ExamplesExamples Building Block Methodology (BBM)Building Block Methodology (BBM)
Downstream Response to Imposed Flow TransformationDownstream Response to Imposed Flow Transformation(DRIFT)(DRIFT) Benchmarking MethodologyBenchmarking Methodology
Savannah Process (ESWM) (TNC)Savannah Process (ESWM) (TNC)
-2
-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0 50 100 150 200 (56%) 250 300 350 (99%) 400
Total volume used (MCM)
(PercentageMARin brackets)
Near natural
Significantly modified
Moderately modified
Highly significantly modified
Present River State = Near natural
DRIFT Downstream Response to Imposed FlowTransformation
King et al. 2003; 2006
Arthington et al. 2003
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 50 100 150
Distance(m)
D
0.0
0.1
1.0
5.0
0.0 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0
Discharge
Maximumdepth(m)
Meanvelocity
Wettedperimeter
(m.sec-1)
(mx 102)
(m3.sec-1)
1:21:5
1:101:20
0
1
2
3
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Distance(m)
(i)
(iii)
(ii)(iv)
(v)
(I)
(II)
(III)
(IV)
(vi)
(a)
(b)
(c)
Ecological
requirements
affected - reductioninlow flows
Ecologicalrequirements
affected - reduction
in floods
Impacts on fish
Change in health
Changein
mortalities
Severity/confidence
Socialconsecquence
Flow c omponent Discharge
(Q) in m3 s-1
Number per
yearDryseason low
flows
0.1- 16
Wet season lowflows
0.1- 50
Within-year floodI 17- 48 6
Within-year flood II 49 - 95 3
Within-year flood III 96 - 190 3
Within-year floodIV 191 - 379 2
1:2 year flood 380
1:5 year flood 530
1:10year flood 665
1:20year flood 870
Benchmarking Methodology -7 key flow statistics
Mean annual flowFlow regime classAnnual Proportional Flow Deviation - APFD1:5, 5, 20 year ARIMean wet season flow
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
EvolutionEvolution Originally developed in South Africa andOriginally developed in South Africa and
Australia, followed by U.K. and U.S.A.Australia, followed by U.K. and U.S.A. Process for developing environmental flows forProcess for developing environmental flows fordiverse situationsdiverse situations limited resources/data tolimited resources/data to
extensive resources/dataextensive resources/data Four levels:Four levels:
I.I. Hydrologic Analysis (desktop, ecologically relevantHydrologic Analysis (desktop, ecologically relevant
suite of indicessuite of indices Ecological Flow Components)Ecological Flow Components)
II.II. Expert Panel ApproachExpert Panel Approach
III.III. Field Studies and ModelingField Studies and Modeling
IV.IV. Adaptive RefinementAdaptive Refinement
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Holistic Methodologies: Options BasedHolistic Methodologies: Options Based
on Investment and Certaintyon Investment and Certainty
Time/Resource Investment and Level of Certainty
Level I Level IVLevel II Level III
Holistic hydrological analysis
Range of variability analysisEnvironmental flow components
Foundation for seeking funding and support to move toward
Holistic expert panelapproach
Initiate flows and monitoring tomove toward
Holistic field studiesand modeling
Adaptiverefinement
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
Comparison Based on Time AvailableComparison Based on Time Available
Level I:
Hydrologic Analysis
Level II:
Expert PanelApproach
Level III:
Field Studies andModeling
Months 1 - 5
Months 6 - 12
Years 2 5 +
Level IV: AdaptiveRefinement
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
Comparison Based on CostComparison Based on Cost
Level I:
Hydrologic Analysis
Level II:
Expert-Panel Driven
Level III:
Field Studies andModeling
~ $10,000
~ $100,000
~ $1,000,000 +
Level IV: Adaptive
Refinement
Requires sustainable budget -
long-term investment
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
Level I Hydrologic AnalysisLevel I Hydrologic Analysis
First stepFirst step -- prior to implementing otherprior to implementing otherlevelslevels
Precautionary stand alone approachPrecautionary stand alone approach --augment with more comprehensiveaugment with more comprehensiveapproaches over timeapproaches over time
Can use tools such as Indicators ofCan use tools such as Indicators ofHydrologic Alteration (IHA) e.g. Range ofHydrologic Alteration (IHA) e.g. Range ofVariability Analysis (RVA)Variability Analysis (RVA)
Potential forPotential for regionalisationregionalisation of approachof approach
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
Level II Expert Panel ApproachesLevel II Expert Panel Approaches
Orientation
meeting
Review &summary report
Flowrecommendation
workshop
Implementationof flow
prescription
Monitoring andresearchprogram
(Richter et al. 2006)
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Specialist Expertise forSpecialist Expertise for
Interdisciplinary Expert PanelInterdisciplinary Expert Panel
River flowRiver flowsurface & groundwater hydrology, hydraulics,surface & groundwater hydrology, hydraulics,
water resources modelling, climate changewater resources modelling, climate change
geomorphology,geomorphology, sedimentologysedimentology, land use, land useRiver channel formRiver channel form
Subsistence usersSubsistence userssociology, anthropology, water supply, publicsociology, anthropology, water supply, public
health, animal health, fisherieshealth, animal health, fisheries
BiotaBiota
vegetation, fish, invertebrates, frogs, reptiles,vegetation, fish, invertebrates, frogs, reptiles,
waterwater--dependent mammals, birdsdependent mammals, birds
Water qualityWater quality chemistry, microbiologychemistry, microbiology
EconomicsEconomics ecological economics, resource economics,ecological economics, resource economics,
macroeconomicsmacroeconomics
ProcessProcess coco--ordinator, international mentorordinator, international mentor
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
Level III Field Studies and MonitoringLevel III Field Studies and MonitoringFor systems with extensive existing dataFor systems with extensive existing data
And/or cases where funding and time available toAnd/or cases where funding and time available tocollect new datacollect new dataSituations where greater certainty is requiredSituations where greater certainty is required
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Field studies and modeling to reduce uncertaintiesand address knowledge gaps
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Q(cms)
Models for meander migrationand sediment transport;Key flow range = 15,000 20,000 cfs
Cottonwood recruitment box model (rate of recession)
Data on fish utilization of floodplains (duration for rearing)
H20 Temp Models Spawning surveys
Fish passagemodels
Required 1 in 10 years
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Holistic Methodologies:Holistic Methodologies:
Level IV Adaptive RefinementLevel IV Adaptive RefinementSimilar to Level III, but begins cycle ofSimilar to Level III, but begins cycle of
experimental releasesexperimental releases
Evaluation of ecological responsesEvaluation of ecological responses
Modification of eModification of e--flows and water managementflows and water managementbased on resultsbased on results
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Environmental Flow Framework (e.g. DRIFT)Environmental Flow Framework (e.g. DRIFT)
(1) Biophysical(1) Biophysical
(3) Scenario development(3) Scenario development
Describe the natureand functioning of
the river
Develop predictivecapacity of flowrelated changes
(2) Sociological(2) Sociological
Identify PAR
Describe river useand health profiles
Develop predictivecapacity of socialimpacts of river
changes
Identify possible futurescenarios and describe
biophysical consequencesof each
Describe socialconsequences of each
scenario(4) Economic(4) Economic
Calculate compensationand mitigation costs for
PAR
Output to decision-maker (King et al. 2003)
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Comparison of BBM and DRIFTComparison of BBM and DRIFT
DRIFT is a scenario-based interactive approach, in which adatabase is created that can be queried to describe the
biophysical consequences of any number of potential futureflow regimes (scenarios). It is designed for use in negotiationsover different allocations of water, and consequent levels andseverity of ecosystem modification.
The BBM builds up a recommended flow regime, in response toa predetermined environmental objective, or a series of flowregimes designed for different levels of ecosystem modification.
In the Flow/stressor response variation of the BBM, ecologicalresponse curves for different aspects of the ecosystem aredeveloped, leading to an overall risk curve of ecosystem stressat different flows, which can be queried for any potential future
scenario.
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Comparison of BBM and DRIFTComparison of BBM and DRIFT
As part of the DRIFT database analysis, the links betweenchanging river condition and the socio-economic impacts forriparian communities (people who rely on the river forsubsistence) are automatically quantified
Both methods are well described in detailed user manuals, butDRIFT requires more technical knowledge, particularly of thedatabase analysis model, and requires more initial data input,
The BBM is more flexible and robust in data/knowledge poorconditions, but ultimately, both are simply different frameworksfor the analysis of whatever data/knowledge is available or canbe collected, and this governs the confidence in the final
recommendations.
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Comparison of BBM and DRIFTComparison of BBM and DRIFT
DRIFT is a top-down method, so that each flow does not have
to be defined and motivated, reducing the risk of missingsignificant components of the flow regime, but resulting in a lackof motivation for each flow component
BBM is a bottom-up method, in which each flow component isspecifically identified and motivated. This risks the possibilitythat specialists will fail to identify some significant flowcomponent, but results in a more carefully motivated set of flow
recommendations
Ultimately, the choice of method will depend on resourcesavailable, and the expertise and experience of the
coordinator/facilitator
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