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Mesa County Real Estate Trends 30 Year Report

1990 - 2019

This Special Edition of the Mesa County Real Estate Trends Report provides a view of the last 30 years. The first Spe-cial Edition Report was published in 2010 when the real estate market was suffering the effects of the global financial reces-sion, and a look-back for perspective was desperately needed. Now that another decade has closed, and a thirty year report documenting Mesa County’s recovery is refreshing. Included are data and charts outline the overall number of sales, dollar volume, single family building permits, and a time-line of national and local events. The sales volume is an ACTUAL measure of the number of sales each year according to deeds recorded at the Mesa County Clerk and Recorder’s office. The dollar volume represents a trend that is impacted by in-flation, increasing property values, and high dollar commercial properties. Single family building permits are included, as they are good measure of community growth. Additionally, I have included at timeline as a reminder of some of the na-tional and local events that influenced the economic environment and consumer con-fidence.

Special Edition Courtesy of Her itage Tit le Company

Sources: The Business Times Grand Junction, Editor Phil Castle, Museum of Western Colorado, Wikipedia.com, Animatedatlas.com/timeline.com, Mesa County Real Estate Trends Report, ABC News, Realty Trac, money.cnn.com, quickenloans.com, gjsentinal.com, GJARA MLS., thebalannce.com, US Dept. of Energy Impact Statement, Mesa County Building Department, Mesa County Clerk and Recorder.

3,8

85

3,5

16

4,1

48

4,8

86

4,9

53

4,3

36 4,6

91

4,6

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5,2

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5,2

69

4,9

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7,1

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3,5

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3,6

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4,5

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5,3

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5,3

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mesa County Real Estate

Number of Sales 1990 - 2019Source: Mesa County Clerk and Recorder

May 2, 1982 was to become known as “Black Sunday” in Mesa County. After Exxon predicted they would produce 8 million barrels of oil a day by 2010 from the oil shale near Para-chute, they announced a shut down, putting 2,000 people out of work. Thousands more support workers would suffer. 15,000 people moved out of Grand Junction leaving empty houses and pending foreclosures. Many never saw it coming. The country was in a recession, and un-employment in Mesa County reached 11.7% in 1983. Some homes lost nearly two-thirds of their value, and took more than a decade to recover. Over time, the resulting foreclosures made HUD the largest property owner in Mesa County peaking at 620 homes in May of 1987 according to the Assessor records.

The 2008 Great Recession is blamed, in part, by the subprime mortgage crisis, and bank practices of selling mortgage-backed securities. The failure of large financial institutions spread the crisis globally. Remi-niscent of 1985 when foreclosures peaked at 1600, 2009 reached 1580. The national economy was in recessions during both periods. However, as similar as the recessions felt, the recoveries differ.

Our current recovery in Mesa Coun-ty has been at a steady pace, alt-hough new construction still lags behind.

This recovery is building on more careful lending and banking practic-es than those of the 2000’s.

Mesa County is enjoying very low foreclosure and unemployment rates within a diverse economy. See timeline on next page for more market trends.

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Mesa County Single Family Building PermitsSource: Mesa County Building Department

$279

$221

$272 $358

$430

$388

$445

$474 $

623

$658

$622 $727 $838 $

972 $

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$1,4

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$1,7

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$1,7

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$1,3

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$661

$599

$585 $681 $770

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$984

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1,2

81

$1,5

52

$1,6

67

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mesa County Real Estate

Dol lar Volume (in $ mi llions)Source: Mesa County Clerk & Recorder

Mesa County Real Estate Trends 30 Year Report Special Edition 1990—2019

Page 2

Courtesy of Heritage Tit le Company

The Great Recession

More History…

Recovery

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Events Previously… 1989 National Savings & Loan crisis FDIC places three local S&L's in receiv-ership.

Fifth consecutive year of economic advance for Mesa County. Concerns escalate regard-ing Persian Gulf crisis. Average mortgage rate is 10.13%. Note: 1981’s average was 16.64%.

Gulf War, Opera-tion Desert Storm in Middle East.

Interest rates decline 1991-1993

Mesa County real estate sales begin to flatten after 6 years of advances.

Presidential Elec-tion: William J. Clinton 1993-2001 Refinance activity increases. Economists forecast inflation and corre-sponding interest rate hikes.

Affordable hous-ing in Mesa County feels squeeze. Fixed mortgage interest rates bottom at 6.87% in October.

Mortgage Interest rates move to 8.5% in first quarter. Building permits for multi-family units in-crease in Mesa County. Mesa housing market slows in June.

Interest rates trend down during second quarter to below 8% reach-ing 7% by year end. Mesa County average price for 3 bedroom home at $100,100.

Interest rates float downward, then end year at 8%. Mesa County econo-my advancing at a steady pace. Unemployment in US drops to 5.1%.

Longest prosperity period in US History. Local economy grows Interest rates back down around 7% by year end. Mesa County average price for 3 bedroom home at $113,406.

Speculation building on rise in Mesa County. Local real estate experts don’t expect sales to slow anytime soon, oth-ers express concern cur-rent market is a “balloon” Mortgage rates dip below 7% .

Federal budget goes into surplus. World-wide preparations for Y2K, stockpiling of food and generators. Federal Reserve intends to slow economy and inflation. Interest rates rise to 8.125%.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Presidential Election: George W. Bush 2001—2008 Mortgage rates continue to increase until 4th quar-ter, then start to trend down-ward.

Sept 11th terror attack on World Trade Center. Mesa County spared from national and state economy Nationally, housing market out performing other industries. Interest rates continue to lower as Federal Re-serve wants to avoid recession.

Local com-mercial de-velopment steps up. Fruita area shows signifi-cant growth. Average interest rates dip to levels of the 1960’s to below 6%.

Iraq war Refinance activity jumps with interest rates in the 5’s and 6’s. Mesa County average price for 3 bedroom home at $156,303.

Interest rates start to slowly creep up for first time in four years. Natural gas drilling activities make regional headlines nearly every week. Mesa County popu-lation surpasses 127,000

Mortgage Interest rates move from 7% to 8.5%. Nation faces cement shortages. Cost of building sup-plies increase as the South rebuilds from hurricanes. Affordable housing in Mesa County is a critical concern.

Interest rates continue to rise. Homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages are facing higher pay-ments. Energy sector continues to grow in Mesa and neighboring coun-ties. Mesa County unemployment and vacancy rates very low. National speculation of “housing bubbles” in some markets.

Average residential home price in Mesa County peaks at $240,951. Foreclosures on sub prime and adjustable rate mortgages increase, and sub prime lenders begin halting operations. Lending criteria tightens for borrowers credit flow is slowed. Economic stimulus actions are taken by fed government, and interest rates float downward. Mesa County population surpasses 139,000

Presidential Election: Barack Obama 2009 - 2016 Mesa County Real Es-tate Trends report de-creases in sales and dollar volume for 2nd year. Mesa County real estate sales drop 30%, single family building permits sink 47%.

Global financial recession. National unemployment rate peaks at 10%, highest since 1983. Mortgage interest rates dip to 50-60 year lows. Energy expansion on Western Slope steps back to a crawl. Short sales allow homeowners to avoid foreclosure. Mesa County real estate sales continue de-cline for 4th year, unemployment on rise.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US unemployment rate ends year at 9.3%, Mesa County peaks at 12% in March. US Combat troops leave Iraq. Short sale practices and policies dom-inate industry headlines. Stricter regulations for title industry take effect from Colorado Division of Insurance. 2.9 million receive foreclosure notice in US. Mesa County foreclosure filings reach 1580, reminiscent of the 1600 in 1985 after the oil shale bust. Ro-bo signing and notary fraud accu-sations related to foreclosures hit headlines.

Consumers harmed in 2009 and 2010 foreclosures given complaint process. E-recording offered in all Col-orado Counties. 15% increase in Mesa County real estate sales marks end of 6 year decline. Average residential home price declines to $159,550. 1.9 million more US foreclo-sure notices. One third of Mesa County real estate sales are bank or gov-ernment owned properties.

CFPB issues 1099 pages of proposed regulation to sim-plify mortgage process. 1.8 million US foreclosure notic-es. 30 year fixed mort-gage rate fell to an all time low of 3.36%. Bank owned prop-erties keeps down-ward pressure on home values in Mesa County.

CFPB says good-bye to HUD-1 statement after more than 30 years with introduction of “Closing Disclosure”. Short sale fraud scams arrive on the scene. LPS pays $121 million to 46 states to settle unlawful foreclosure practices. 1.4 million US foreclo-sure notices. Energy companies move assets away from Western Slope.

E-closing pilot pro-grams make an appear-ance for digitally pro-cessed home sale transactions. Bank owned properties shrink to 11% of Mesa County real estate sales. 1.1 million US fore-closure notices Under employment curbs real estate mar-ket growth. Mesa County real estate market recovery proves stubborn.

Average mortgage inter-est rate is 3.85%. 1.1 million US foreclo-sure notices Average sales price of residential home in Me-sa County reaches $216,864. 2015 was “feel good” year in the Mesa County real estate market recov-ery. “American Pharaoh” wins Triple Crown 37 years after last winner, Affirmed.

Presidential Election: Donald J. Trump 2017—current. Just under 1 million US foreclo-sure notices. Colorado Division of Real Estate warns consumers about email and money wiring scams. Fifth year of consecutive growth for Mesa County real estate sales. Bank owned transactions fall to 6% of Mesa County market. Low inventory of homes for sale hamper Mesa County real estate growth.

Mesa County popula-tion exceeds 150,000. Mesa County real estate dollar volume surpasses $1 billion, first time since the 2008. Low inventory of homes for sale continue to tighten. New construction ex-pected to grow, but tempered by labor shortage. Mesa County average residential price sur-passes 2007 peak, reaching $252,269

Average mortgage interest rate is 4.54%. Title industry face risks handling transactions in-volving marijuana money. “Justify” wins Triple Crown, 2nd winner in 40 years. Mesa County real estate experiences strong gains in number and dollar volume.

Remote on-line notary (RON) bills pass in numerous states. Wire fraud aware-ness and preven-tion expand to all parties involved in real estate transac-tions. Millennials largest segment of home-buyers, and ex-pected to peak in 2020. Mesa County ends year at 3.1% unem-ployment.