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No.42, 2018. 5
- - The Risk of Incompleteness of Fire Information
on Real-time Evacuation Guidance under Post-Earthquake Fires
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Yuta SUZUKI1 and Eiichi ITOIGAWA2 1 Graduate Scool of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba. 2 Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba.
We study the real-time evacuation guidance method, especially in case of simultaneous multiple fires under the
large-scale earthquake, which informs the residents of an evacuation start time and a safe route to an evacuation site based on fire information gathered by fire services. In this paper, for the purpose of understanding the risk of evacuation guiding based on imcomplete information, we considered the influences of undetected fires and some errors on the fire spreading forecast. As a result, we pointed out the following. (i) An estimation of limit time for evacuation safety has uncertainty. (ii) It is difficult to find the reliable route which an evacuee never encounters fire. In addition, we suggested the two evacuation policies of “maximizing evacuation possibility” and “securing a margin for evacuation”. Keywords :post-earthquake fire, realtime evacuation guidance, imcompleteness of information, evacuation risk
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