Global Futures & Strategic ForesightOverview of Progress in 2015

Arega AleneAgricultural Economist, IITA-Malawi

GFSF Extended Team Meeting, 25-28 May 2015, Rome, Italy

Ex-ante evaluation of promising cowpea and soybean technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Activity

A foresight modeller has been recruited—will join in June 2015

The DSSAT model has been used to assess the yield effects of promising soybean technologies in Nigeria, but the ex-ante economic impact evaluation has yet to be done using the IMPACT model Geospatial & virtual crop model development and simulations Refine technology scenarios based on the key traits and combination of

traits for addressing major production constraints (biotic and abiotic stresses) Model improvement based on the socioeconomic & technology database

Sub-national production datasets are being assembled from the ministries of agriculture to fill possible data gaps in IMPACT 3 (e.g. cowpea in Mozambique) for improved ex-ante evaluation of technologies

Progress

Expert estimation of varietal adoption of cowpea and soybean has been done for better characterization and ex-ante evaluation of promising technologies

Experimental cowpea and soybean yield data have been obtained from breeders for a range of released as well as promising varieties

Ex-ante impact assessment of cowpea and soybean technologies is under way using the economic surplus model – value proposition for Phase 2 of CRP-Legumes

Much of the work planned for 2015 will be done from June/July 2015 with the leadership of the new foresight modeller

Ex-ante evaluation of promising soybean technologies (e.g. yield potential, rust/drought, enhanced nitrogen fixation, etc.) using the IMPACT model

Progress

For soybean in Africa, there is a lot of interest in understanding the scope and the technology & policy options for import substitution through increased domestic production—e.g. Nigeria and Malawi

20152017

20192021

20232025

20272029

20312033

20352037

20392041

20432045

20472049

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00

Mill

ion

tons

IMPACT Model Baseline Projections

Demand @ 2.7% / year

Production @ 0.2% / year

Progress

Thank You